研究报告 Research Report 29 Jan 2026 金沙中国 SANDS CHINA (1928 HK) 25Q4 经调整 EBITDA 低于预期，市场份额提升 25Q4 Miss on Adjusted EBITDA with GGR Market Share Improving 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_Info] 维持优于大市 Maintain OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 HK$17.34 目标价 HK$22.30 HTI ESG 4.3-5.0-4.0 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 市值 HK$140.34bn / US$17.99bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$34.45mn 发行股票数目 8,093mn 自由流通股 (%) 25% 1 年股价最高最低值 HK$22.20-HK$12.82 注：现价 HK$17.34 为 2026 年 01 月 29 日收盘价 资料来源： Factset 1mth 3mth 12mth ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the Hong Kong Casinos & Gaming industry Core Insights - Macau's gaming gross revenue (GGR) for December 2025 reached MOP 20.888 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.8% and a month-on-month decrease of 0.9%, achieving 91.5% of the 2019 level [1][14] - The average daily GGR in December was MOP 674 million, down 4.1% from November's MOP 703 million, indicating resilience in the industry during the traditional peak season for family travel [1][14] - For the third quarter of 2025, Macau's GGR was MOP 66.062 billion, up 15% year-on-year and 5.6% quarter-on-quarter, also reaching 91.6% of the 2019 level [1][14] - The total GGR for Macau in 2025 was MOP 247.403 billion, a 9.1% increase year-on-year, recovering to 84.6% of the 2019 level, with expectations for a 9% growth in 2026, reaching 92.2% of the 2019 level [1][14] Summary by Sections Monthly GGR and Year-on-Year Growth - December GGR decreased by 0.9% month-on-month but increased by 14.8% year-on-year, recovering to 91.5% of the 2019 level [1][14] - The average daily GGR in December was MOP 674 million, down from MOP 703 million in November [1][14] Visitor Statistics - In November 2025, the number of inbound visitors to Macau was 3.35 million, up 18.1% year-on-year and 115% of the 2019 level [3][15] - The number of visitors from mainland China was 2.4 million, representing a 21.9% year-on-year increase [3][15] Hotel Occupancy Rates - The hotel occupancy rate in Macau for November 2025 was 90.2%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year and 1.1 percentage points month-on-month [4][16] - The average stay time for hotel guests was stable at 1.7 nights [4][16]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Macau's gaming revenue has shown significant growth, with October's gross gaming revenue reaching 24.086 billion MOP, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.9% [1][2] - For the first nine months of the year, Macau's total gross gaming revenue amounted to 205.427 billion MOP, reflecting an 8% increase compared to the same period last year [1][2] Group 2 - The monthly gross gaming revenue for October 2024 was 20.787 billion MOP, indicating a 15.9% increase from the previous year [2] - The cumulative gross gaming revenue for the first ten months of 2024 was 205.427 billion MOP, which is an 8% increase from 190.142 billion MOP in the same period of 2023 [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a positive outlook for Galaxy Entertainment, indicating confidence in its long-term prospects with an interim dividend of HKD0.70 per share, reflecting a dividend payout ratio of 58% [5][12]. Core Insights - Galaxy Entertainment reported a net revenue of HKD12.04 billion for Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.5% [2][7]. - The adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2025 reached HKD3.57 billion, up 12.4% year-on-year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 29.6%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [4][11]. - The company's market share increased to 20.2% in Q2 2025, up from 19.5% in Q1 2025, indicating a strengthening position in the market [5][12]. Revenue Breakdown - In Q2 2025, gaming revenue increased by 12.3% year-on-year, contributing HKD9.66 billion, while non-gaming revenue reached HKD1.61 billion, up 8.4% year-on-year [2][8]. - The total betting amount for the company reached HKD119.45 billion, an increase of 18.4% year-on-year, with VIP betting accounting for 46.7% of the total [3][9]. Performance Metrics - The company's gross gaming revenue (GGR) for Q2 2025 was HKD12.01 billion, reflecting an 11.8% year-on-year increase, which outpaced the industry growth rate of 8.3% [10]. - The adjusted EBITDA for Galaxy Macau and StarWorld Macau was HKD3.33 billion and HKD0.3 billion respectively, with respective adjusted EBITDA margins of 33.3% and 25.9% [4][11].

Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, Wynn Macau reported net revenue of USD 0.883 billion, a slight decrease of 0.2% year-on-year (YoY) and an increase of 2% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) [1][8][9] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2025 was USD 0.25 billion, down 9.5% YoY, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 28.7%, a decrease of 2.95 percentage points YoY [1][4][12] - For the first half of 2025, total revenue reached USD 1.75 billion, down 7.2% YoY, and adjusted EBITDA was USD 0.51 billion, down 18.4% YoY [1][8] Gaming Revenue - Total gaming revenue in Q2 2025 was USD 0.9 billion, an increase of 2% YoY, but below the industry growth rate of 8.3% [3][11] - The total betting amount reached USD 10.28 billion in Q2 2025, up 17.4% YoY, with VIP betting increasing by 27.1% YoY [2][10] - The VIP win rate for Wynn Palace was 2.86%, lower than the expected range of 3.1% to 3.4% [2][10] Market Share and Outlook - Wynn Macau's market share in Q2 2025 was 11.9%, down 0.5 percentage points from 12.4% in Q1 2025 [5][13] - The company plans to invest USD 200-250 million in capital expenditures for property upgrades in 2025 [5] - A new entertainment center at Wynn Palace is expected to open in early 2028, pending government approval [5] Risks - Potential risks include lower-than-expected macroeconomic growth, stricter gaming regulations in Macau, and increased competition in overseas gaming markets [6][13]

Revenue Performance - In Q2 2025, MGM China achieved total revenue of HKD 8.67 billion, an increase of 8.9% year-on-year (YoY) and 8.4% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) [1][10] - The gaming and non-gaming segments contributed HKD 7.63 billion and HKD 1.04 billion respectively, with YoY changes of +9.5% and +4.5% [2][10] - The revenue from MGM Cotai increased by 12.4% YoY, reaching HKD 5.28 billion, while MGM Macau's revenue grew by 2.8% YoY to HKD 3.38 billion [2][10] Gaming Metrics - The company's gross gaming revenue (GGR) reached HKD 9.83 billion in Q2 2025, up 11.8% YoY, surpassing the industry growth rate of 8.3% [3][12] - VIP gaming revenue saw a significant increase of 46.9% YoY, contributing HKD 1.29 billion to the GGR [3][12] - Total betting amount reached HKD 86.19 billion, reflecting a 12.5% YoY increase, with VIP betting accounting for 44.2% of the total [2][11] EBITDA and Profitability - Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2025 was HKD 2.51 billion, a 2.8% YoY increase, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 29.0%, down 1.72 percentage points YoY [4][13] - The adjusted EBITDA for MGM Macau and MGM Cotai was HKD 0.98 billion and HKD 1.54 billion respectively, with margins of 28.8% and 29.0% [4][13] Market Share and Future Outlook - MGM China's market share increased to 16.6% in Q2 2025, up from 15.7% in Q1 2025 [5][14] - The company plans to enhance its offerings with the launch of 28 new high-end villas and the Alpha Club targeting ultra-high-end customers [6][15] Risks - Potential risks include lower-than-expected macroeconomic growth, stricter gaming regulations in Macau, and increased competition in overseas gaming markets [7][16]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for Sands China (1928 HK) Core Insights - In 25Q2, Sands China reported a net revenue of USD 1.79 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, while adjusted EBITDA reached USD 566 million, up 0.9% year-on-year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 31.6% [10] - The overall gaming gross revenue (GGR) in Macau increased by 8.3% year-on-year and 6.0% quarter-on-quarter, reaching MOP 61.115 billion in 25Q2 [2] - The Londoner Macao showed impressive performance with a net revenue increase of 44.6% year-on-year, benefiting from the completion of its renovation [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 25Q2, Sands China achieved a net revenue of USD 1.79 billion, with contributions from gaming and non-gaming segments at USD 1.347 billion and USD 0.447 billion respectively, reflecting increases of 1.4% and 5.2% year-on-year [3] - The adjusted property EBITDA for the first half of 2025 was USD 1.101 billion, down 6.0% year-on-year, with a margin of 31.5% [10] Property Performance - The performance of various properties under Sands China varied significantly, with Venetian and Londoner showing contrasting results; Venetian's net revenue decreased by 3.4%, while Londoner's increased by 44.6% due to renovations [3] - The net revenue breakdown by property for 25Q2 was as follows: Venetian at USD 663 million, Londoner at USD 642 million, and Parisian at USD 194 million [3] Gaming Operations - Total betting volume for Sands China in 25Q2 was MOP 155.9 billion, a decline of 5.3% year-on-year, with VIP betting down 23% [4] - The gaming gross revenue reached USD 1.71 billion, a slight increase of 0.2% year-on-year, with VIP gaming revenue declining by 14.1% [4] Capital Expenditure - The total capital expenditure for Sands China in 25Q2 was USD 286 million, including USD 138 million for construction, development, and maintenance activities in Macau [6] Shareholder Returns - LVS purchased 87 million shares of Sands China at an average price of HKD 16.00, increasing its ownership stake to 73.4% as of July 23, 2025 [5]