证券研究报告 科技 DeepSeek-V3.1 发布，国产算力链迎 来高景气 华泰研究 2025 年 8 月 25 日│中国内地 行业周报（第三十四周） 本周观点 市场方面，上周通信（申万）指数上涨 10.84%，同期上证综指上涨 3.49%， 深证成指上涨 4.57%。我们观察到，DeepSeek-V3.1 新模型发布，拥有思 考与非思考模式的混合构架、更高的思考效率和更强的 Agent 能力，其 API 接口可以支持长文本处理与 Claude Code 框架，且在多项测试中表现显著 优于 R1 等先前模型。DeepSeek-V3.1 采用 UE8M0 FP8 精度参数，是针对 即将发布的下一代国产芯片设计，国产软硬件协同成果显著，国内互联网厂 商资本开支增长叠加海外 GPU 供应受阻背景下，国产算力的基础设施需求 有望维持高景气。 周专题：DeepSeek-V3.1 发布，国产算力链迎来高景气 Deepseek 官方发布 DeepSeek-V3.1 版本，采用 UE8M0 FP8 精度参数， 能效高、动态范围大、能避免信息损失。该精度参数是针对即将发布的下一 代国产芯片设计，国产软硬件协同成果显著，国内互 ...

通信行业 2025 年 8 月 22 日 分析师：陈伟光 S0340520060001 电话：0769-22119430 邮箱： chenweiguang@dgzq.com.cn 周 报 分析师：罗炜斌 S0340521020001 电话：0769-22110619 邮箱：luoweibin@dgzq.com.cn SAC 执业证书编号： S0340524070002 电话：0769-22119302 邮箱： chenzhanqian@dgzq.com.cn 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFind 相关报告 超配（维持） 通信行业双周报（2025/8/8-2025/8/21） 行 业 全球首批支持 NB-NTN 卫星通信的可穿戴平台面世 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 | 1、通信行业行情回顾 | | | 3 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2、产业新闻 | | | 4 | | 3、公司公告 | | | 6 | | 4、行业数据更新 | | | 6 | | ...

Group 1 - The company Blue Shield Optoelectronics stated on August 20 that its current business does not involve commercial aerospace construction [1] - The company's affiliated entity, Shanghai Star Semiconductor Co., Ltd., is a baseband chip design company [1] - The relevant chips designed by the affiliated company can be applied in products such as 5G CPE, satellite smartphone prototypes, low-orbit satellite communication terminals, satellite IoT terminals, and satellite joint measurement terminals [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the critical role of satellite phones in emergency communication during the severe flooding in Huairou, Beijing, showcasing their effectiveness when traditional communication methods fail [1][5][6]. Group 1: Emergency Response - Firefighter Pan Yuepeng utilized a satellite phone to report disaster conditions and assist villagers in contacting their families, demonstrating the importance of satellite communication in crisis situations [5][10]. - The article describes a scene where villagers formed a long queue to use the satellite phone, indicating the high demand for communication during the disaster [5][6]. Group 2: Technology and Functionality - Satellite phones operate by relaying signals through communication satellites, allowing for connectivity even when ground-based networks are compromised [6][7]. - The article explains the operational challenges of satellite phones, including the need for a clear line of sight to the satellite and the impact of environmental factors on signal quality [7][8]. Group 3: Market Insights - The article notes an increase in consumer interest in satellite communication features in mobile phones, particularly during flood seasons, with many seeking to ensure preparedness for emergencies [9][11]. - Various mobile operators offer satellite communication services, with China Telecom providing a straightforward process for users to activate satellite calling and messaging features [10][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the telecommunications industry, considering the sustained high prosperity of the sector driven by AI, 5.5G, and satellite communications [2][5]. Core Insights - The overall market performance for the week of August 11-17, 2025, saw the Shanghai Composite Index rise by 1.70%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 4.55%, and the ChiNext Index by 8.58%. The telecommunications sector, represented by the Shenwan Communications Index, increased by 7.66% during the same period [2][11]. - Within the telecommunications sector, the highest increase was observed in the communication network equipment and devices sub-sector, which rose by 12.40%. In contrast, the communication engineering and services sub-sector had the lowest increase at 1.22% [2][14]. - Notable individual stock performances included Hengbao Co., which surged by 49.23%, followed by Guangku Technology at 48.90% and Beiwai Technology at 41.12% [2][16]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The telecommunications sector experienced a significant increase in stock prices, with the Shenwan Communications Index rising by 7.66% during the week [11]. - The sub-sector of communication network equipment and devices led the gains with a 12.40% increase, while communication engineering and services saw a modest rise of 1.22% [14]. Notable Developments - The successful launch of the GW 08 satellite constellation on August 9, 2025, marked a significant advancement in satellite internet capabilities, focusing on applications such as intelligent connected vehicles and marine fisheries [18]. - ZTE Corporation and China Mobile achieved a global first by completing a real-world verification of a single-core hollow fiber with a transmission capacity of 114.9Tb/s, showcasing advancements in optical communication technology [20][21]. - Lumentum reported a substantial increase in revenue driven by AI-related services, with a 55.9% year-over-year growth in the fourth fiscal quarter [22][23]. Future Focus Areas - The report suggests focusing on the computing power industry chain and satellite internet as key areas for investment [3].

Group 1 - The company Meian Sen (300275.SZ) announced on August 19 that its subsidiary, Zhi Yu Xing, is primarily focused on high-orbit satellite communication and plans to develop terminal products compatible with low-orbit communication satellites to achieve comprehensive coverage of both high and low-orbit satellite communication services [1] - Zhi Yu Xing has already partnered with several high-tech companies to expand its satellite communication-related business [1] - The satellite communication business of Zhi Yu Xing is currently in the expansion phase, and investors are advised to be aware of investment risks [1] Group 2 - An investor inquired on the interactive platform about Huawei's satellite products, specifically whether the Mate 80 would be the first low-orbit satellite phone, and if the company has any satellite communication products suitable for both high and low-orbit communication [3] - The investor also asked if the company has engaged in discussions with technology enterprises regarding collaboration in satellite communication [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the communication industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [34]. Core Insights - The communication industry has shown strong performance, with a 7.66% increase in the past week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 5.28 percentage points [9][10]. Year-to-date, the industry has risen by 30.73%, significantly surpassing the CSI 300 index's 6.80% increase [9]. - The report highlights the successful launch of low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites by China Star Network, indicating a mature satellite manufacturing and launch capability in the domestic commercial aerospace industry [16][20]. - Tencent's second-quarter earnings report shows a revenue of 184.5 billion yuan, a 15% year-on-year increase, with AI becoming a significant growth driver [23][24]. - Global optical communication and AI computing markets remain robust, with companies like Lumentum and Coherent reporting strong revenue growth, indicating high industry demand [26][27]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The communication sector has 123 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 492.49 billion yuan [2]. The sector's PE-TTM stands at 39.98, compared to 13.46 for the CSI 300 index [6]. Recent Performance - The communication industry has outperformed the CSI 300 index and the ChiNext index in both the short and long term, with a notable 30.73% increase this year [9][10]. Key Companies and Recommendations - Recommended companies include China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom for operators; New Yisheng, Tianfu Communication, and Zhongji Xuchuang for optical modules and chips; and Haige Communication and Shanghai Hanyun for military/satellite communication [28]. Satellite Launch Developments - As of August 13, 2025, China Star Network has successfully launched eight groups of LEO satellites, demonstrating enhanced launch capabilities across multiple sites [16][20]. Tencent's AI Strategy - Tencent's investment in AI has led to significant revenue growth across its gaming, advertising, and enterprise services, with a notable increase in capital expenditure for IT infrastructure and AI-related businesses [25][27]. Global Market Trends - Lumentum reported a revenue of $480.7 million for Q4 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 55.9%, while Coherent's revenue reached $1.53 billion, reflecting strong demand in the data center and communication markets [26][27]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on the entire satellite communication supply chain, including key players in satellite manufacturing and launch capabilities, as well as companies involved in AI and optical communication technologies [20][28].

Core Viewpoint - The recent financial report of XW Communication (300136) indicates a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with a notable increase in cash flow per share, suggesting mixed performance and potential areas for improvement [1][3]. Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for the first half of 2025 was 3.703 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.15% year-on-year [1]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 162 million yuan, down 20.18% year-on-year [1]. - In Q2 2025, total revenue reached 1.96 billion yuan, an increase of 3.82% year-on-year, while net profit rose to 84.34 million yuan, up 65.12% year-on-year [1]. - Gross margin was 18.61%, a decrease of 0.52% year-on-year, and net margin was 4.29%, down 19.1% year-on-year [1]. - Total expenses (selling, administrative, and financial) amounted to 251 million yuan, representing 6.77% of revenue, an increase of 34.38% year-on-year [1]. - Earnings per share were 0.17 yuan, down 18.9% year-on-year, while operating cash flow per share increased by 79.74% to 1.11 yuan [1]. Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Analysis - Accounts receivable stood at 1.664 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.68% year-on-year, with accounts receivable to net profit ratio at 251.44% [1][4]. - Cash and cash equivalents decreased by 13.02% to 1.6 billion yuan [1]. - The net cash flow from operating activities increased by 79.74%, attributed to higher sales collections [3]. Business Model and Market Position - The company relies heavily on research and development, with R&D expenses consistently exceeding 8% of annual revenue [7]. - The return on invested capital (ROIC) for the previous year was 6.56%, indicating average capital returns, with a historical median ROIC of 14.77% over the past decade [4]. - The company is focusing on emerging fields such as 5G/6G communication, automotive antennas, and satellite communication to enhance its competitive edge and improve margins [7]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts project a net profit of 733 million yuan for 2025, with an average earnings per share estimate of 0.76 yuan [5]. - The largest fund holding XW Communication shares is the Huaxia Growth ETF, which has shown a significant increase in value over the past year [6].

Core Viewpoint - AST SpaceMobile (ASTS.US) experienced a significant increase of over 13%, reaching a price of $52 following the release of its Q2 earnings report on August 11, which reaffirmed its revenue expectations for the second half of 2025 to be between $50 million and $75 million, targeting government and commercial clients [1] Group 1 - The company confirmed plans to deploy between 45 to 60 satellites into orbit by 2026 to support continuous space cellular broadband services in markets including the United States, Europe, and Japan [1] - AST SpaceMobile has completed the assembly of eight Block 2 satellite components [1]

Group 1 - The successful launch of the "Zhonglian Heavy Industry" satellite marks a significant milestone for the global engineering machinery industry, symbolizing the company's expansion from land to space [2][3] - The satellite is a testament to Zhonglian Heavy Industry's commitment to digitalization, intelligence, greening, and globalization, showcasing its ambition to connect with the future and the world [3][4] - Zhonglian Heavy Industry has established itself as a leader in the global engineering machinery sector, with over 17,800 patent applications and the development of numerous world-first and world-largest machinery [4] Group 2 - Zhonglian Heavy Industry has built 23 leading smart factories and over 30 primary business aviation ports, creating a global network that covers more than 200 countries and regions [4] - The company aims to explore cutting-edge technologies such as big data, IoT, artificial intelligence, and satellite communication to enhance service efficiency and intelligence for global customers [4] - The satellite launch has sparked interest in the "star-making" industry in Changsha, with local companies like Tianyi Research Institute and Hangsheng Satellite making significant contributions to commercial satellite manufacturing [5]