证券研究报告|行业深度研究报告 星链：天基骨干筑网，手机直连拓界 华西计算机团队 2026年3月2日 分析师：刘泽晶 SAC NO：S1120520020002 邮箱：liuzj1@hx168.com.cn 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 核心观点 垂直整合重塑商业闭环，三轮驱动开启盈利新周期。 星链依托 80% 垂直整合策略与 "72小时出厂" 的工业化产线，将猎鹰 9 号发射与单星制造成本降至同行 1/10，确立了绝对成本护城河；伴随星舰（Starship） 运力 解锁 V3 卫星与星间激光链路 的全域覆盖，Starlink 正从"接入网"迈向"天基骨干网"新纪元。同时，商业端实现 C 端规模渗透、B 端高 ARPU 场景拓展及 G 端国防 安全布局。三轮驱动下，星链正从单一卫星宽带商向全球移动运营商进阶。另外，SpaceX考虑最早在3月保密提交IPO文件，在IPO中寻求的估值可能超过1.75万亿美元。 全球化分工重构供应链生态，双引擎共振驱动价值跃升。 Starlink 构建了"美国研发底座+中国台湾精密制造"的全球协作体系。美系供应链掌控核心材料与战略资产（如射频芯片、特种合金），构建了不可替代 ...

3 月 2 日，彭博社援引知情人士消息指出，埃隆·马斯克旗下的 X 公司与 xAI 合计约 175 亿 美元的债务将被全额偿还，摩根士丹利已正式通知债权人。 当债务被提前清偿、估值被主动重塑、IPO 窗口被精准卡位，马斯克正在为自己的商业帝国做 一次"资本级别的重组"。 在商业世界里，最伟大的CEO 往往不仅是产品的缔造者，更是资本架构的大师。 与此同时，市场传出 SpaceX 已完成对 xAI 的战略收购，合并后整体估值直指 1.25 万亿美 元，并计划于 6 月正式挂牌上市。 这一系列动作看似独立，实则环环相扣。当债务被提前清偿、估值被主动重塑、IPO 窗口被精 准卡位，马斯克正在为自己的商业帝国做一次"资本级别的重组"。 这不仅仅是财务报表的优化，更是一场为"万亿叙事"铺路的精心布局。 在流动性尚未完全退潮的窗口期，马斯克正试图将他的科技帝国推向资本市场的巅峰。 清 偿 1 7 5 亿 美 元 ： 不 是 减 负 ， 而 是 重 估 值 【如需和我们交流可扫码添加进社群】 3 月 2 日的消息如同投入湖面的巨石，瞬间激起了资本市场的涟漪。 X 与 xAI 合计约 175 亿美元债务将被全额偿还，这一动作 ...

2026年03月03日 版策 相关研究 证券分析师 刘雅婧 A0230521080001 liuyj@swsresearch.com 王雪蓉 A0230523070003 wangxr@swsresearch.com 牟瑾瑾 A0230524100002 mujj@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangshenq@swsresearch.com 研究支持 王雪蓉 A0230523070003 wanqxr@swsresearch.com 联系人 王雪蓉 A0230523070003 wangxr@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务 敢问梦想价值几何? -构建申万宏源策略"未来产业定价体系" 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 DCF 模型失效, 未来产业该如何定价? 随着 A 股包容性大幅提升, 传统上处于 Pre-IPO ● 阶段的早期科技企业，如今大量登陆二级市场。这些公司普遍：1）尚未盈利，甚至尚无 收入;2)不确定性高,技术路线远未收敛;3)梦想远大,无限可能。这些特征叠加,导 致传统 DCF 失效。本文通过构建"未来产业定价体系"，试图 ...

A 股 策 略 相关研究 证券分析师 刘雅婧 A0230521080001 liuyj@swsresearch.com 王雪蓉 A0230523070003 wangxr@swsresearch.com 牟瑾瑾 A0230524100002 mujj@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 王雪蓉 A0230523070003 wangxr@swsresearch.com 联系人 王雪蓉 A0230523070003 wangxr@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 2026 年 03 月 03 日 敢问梦想价值几何？ ——构建申万宏源策略"未来产业定价体系" 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 策 略 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 - ⚫ DCF 模型失效，未来产业该如何定价？随着 A 股包容性大幅提升，传统上处于 Pre-IPO 阶段的早期科技企业，如今大量登陆二级市场。这些公司普遍：1） ...

今天带大家扒一扒Contrary发布的《2026年科技趋势报告》这本352页的"未来预言书"。一句话总结：2026年，科技不再只是手机里的APP，而是从 天上到地下，从身体到情感，全方位重塑我们的生活，带来巨大的机遇和同样巨大的拉扯。 报告内容量巨大，我把它掰开揉碎，分成四大块，咱们用大白话唠明白。 读完整份报告，最大的感受是：未来已来，只是分布不均，而且充满悖论。 一方面，技术以一种近乎野蛮的方式生长。 AI重塑了我们的工作方式（从写代码到看病），自动驾驶和低空经济重塑了我们的物理空间（从陆地到 天空），生物技术甚至开始重塑我们的身体（从减肥到基因编辑）。这背后是中美两大巨头的激烈博弈，从芯片、能源到月球资源，每一个赛道都 关乎未来几十年的国运。 另一方面，技术进步与人类的精神需求产生了巨大的错位。 我们享受着屏幕带来的便利和娱乐，却陷入了更深层次的孤独和不信任。当现实中的社 交变得"昂贵"和困难时，我们甚至开始转向AI寻求情感慰藉。这给我们带来一个深刻的启示：未来最稀缺的资源，可能不再是算力、能源或者稀 土，而是真实的"人际关系"和"信任"。 对于普通人来说，这既是挑战也是机会。挑战在于，我们需要不断学习 ...

Group 1: Macro Insights - The overall sentiment around the Spring Festival is mixed, with positive aspects outweighing the negative; the macro environment remains favorable for the market [3] - Key observations include a decline in new home sales and a drop in movie ticket sales during the holiday, while travel and tourism showed strong activity [3] - The economic performance is still under observation, with credit data showing mixed results and social financing needing further assessment [3] Group 2: Fixed Income Market - The bond market is expected to continue its upward trend post-Spring Festival, supported by a stable demand for bonds from banks and other institutional investors [12][15] - The liquidity environment is anticipated to remain loose, with the central bank likely to smooth out market shocks through rollovers of maturing repos [13][14] - The overall bond market is expected to stabilize due to low financing demand and a favorable trading structure [15][16] Group 3: Transportation Sector - High dividend highway companies are becoming attractive for investment, with dividend yields rising to 4-6% [17] - The growth potential in the transportation sector is driven by infrastructure expansion and investment opportunities in mature operational assets [17] - The revision of the "Highway Management Regulations" is expected to enhance long-term returns for the industry [17] Group 4: Food and Beverage Sector - Baoli Food has transitioned from single product offerings to a comprehensive empowerment model, focusing on compound seasonings and light cooking solutions [19] - The company has shown steady revenue growth, with a projected CAGR of 14.09% from 2022 to 2024, and a net profit of 1.92 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025 [19][20] - Investment recommendations include focusing on high-dividend and growth-oriented companies within the food and beverage sector, particularly those with strong B-end customer relationships [32][20] Group 5: Coal Industry - Global energy prices are experiencing divergence, with crude oil prices rising significantly due to geopolitical tensions and supply concerns [29][30] - The increase in oil prices is driven by factors such as military actions in the Middle East and a reduction in U.S. oil inventories [30] - Investment suggestions include focusing on high-performing coal companies and those in niche markets [30]

2022年，谷歌将一个专注于高速通信网络的项目分拆为一家名为Aalyria的初创公司。不到四年后，在新 一轮融资中，投资者对Aalyria的估值达到13亿美元，这反映出市场对可靠、高速通信服务的需求急剧攀 升。 Aalyria的软件可帮助网络在陆地、海洋和太空提供更优质的服务。该公司获得1亿美元新融资之时，正 值美国政府加大对国防科技和国家安全卫星的投入。 太空探索技术公司（SpaceX）的星链（Starlink）已接连拿下政府合同，同时在消费者中越来越受欢 迎，尤其是在传统高速互联网覆盖不足的地区。欧洲通信卫星公司（Eutelsat）、亚马逊等竞争对手也 在大力投资自身相关服务。 谷歌仍持有Aalyria的股份。Battery Ventures领投了此轮新融资，J2Ventures、DYNE等机构参与跟投。 Battery风险投资公司普通合伙人迈克尔·布朗表示，SpaceX凭借星链成功实现近地轨道卫星商业化，"引 发了卫星供应商的竞争焦虑"。在俄乌冲突初期，SpaceX关闭克里米亚地区的星链服务后，美国和欧洲 国家希望服务供应商能更多元化。 "他们认可星链，但也想要替代方案，"布朗称，"这正是Aalyria ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on the space computing industry chain, particularly on upstream and downstream core segments, indicating a positive investment outlook for the sector [8]. Core Insights - Space computing represents a new paradigm of deploying computational facilities in Earth's orbit, transforming the traditional "ground-based computing" into "space-based computing" by utilizing distributed orbital computing clusters [5][6]. - The advantages of space computing include the use of continuous solar energy and near-absolute zero cooling environments, which effectively address the energy and heat dissipation bottlenecks faced by ground data centers [6][7]. - The U.S. is leading the charge with technology companies driving advancements, while China is following a government-led approach with collaborative development across academia and industry [7][8]. Summary by Sections Space Computing Overview - Space computing is characterized by the deployment of computational infrastructure in orbit, leveraging radiation-resistant chips and inter-satellite laser communication to create distributed computing clusters [5][13]. - This model allows satellites to evolve from mere data relays to intelligent nodes, enabling real-time data processing and decision-making in orbit, significantly reducing transmission delays [6][16]. Market Dynamics - The rise of space computing is driven by the exponential growth in global computing demand, particularly under the influence of AI, while traditional data centers face significant energy and cooling challenges [6][24]. - The market for space computing is projected to reach $100 billion by 2030, with a recommendation to focus on key segments such as rocket and satellite manufacturing, laser communication, and space computing chip suppliers [8][24]. Competitive Landscape - Major players in the U.S. include SpaceX, which is developing large-scale space data centers, and other tech giants like Google and Amazon exploring space computing ecosystems [7][8]. - In China, significant projects are underway, including the Beijing GW-level space data center and the "Three-Body Computing Constellation" initiative, indicating a robust governmental push towards space computing [7][8]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the entire space computing industry chain, particularly focusing on core suppliers in rocket and satellite manufacturing, laser communication, and space photovoltaic suppliers [8][24]. - Specific companies recommended for investment include leading firms in laser communication and space photovoltaic technologies, as well as suppliers for SpaceX and space computing chips [8].

Core Viewpoint - Amazon has received approval from the FCC to deploy an additional 4,500 satellites, expanding its total to approximately 7,700 satellites as part of its second-generation Leo satellite internet project, aiming to compete more effectively with SpaceX's Starlink [2][3]. Group 1: Amazon's Satellite Deployment - The FCC requires Amazon to complete 50% of the new satellite launches by February 2032 and all deployments by February 2035 [3]. - Amazon's first generation of 1,600 satellites has been delayed from July 2026 to July 2028 [3]. - The new satellites will enhance coverage and spectrum utilization, particularly in polar regions, which is crucial for expanding services in Arctic areas and energy sectors [3]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - SpaceX's Starlink remains the largest player in the low Earth orbit satellite market, with thousands of satellites launched and a significant market share, covering over 100 countries and generating annual revenues in the billions [6]. - OneWeb, known as the European version of Starlink, has completed the deployment of its first generation of approximately 600 satellites and is experiencing rapid revenue growth in its low Earth orbit business [6]. - China's low Earth orbit satellite deployment is accelerating, with significant government support and strategic initiatives, including the "StarNet" project and the "Qianfan Constellation," which aim to deploy thousands of satellites by 2030 [7][8]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The global low Earth orbit satellite market is expected to grow rapidly, with increasing competition among major players like SpaceX, Amazon, and Chinese companies [4][6]. - Analysts suggest that Amazon's entry into the market is strategically aimed at capturing growth opportunities in the satellite internet sector, despite the challenges of high investment and long payback periods [4]. - The competition is intensifying, with the U.S. focusing on commercial viability while China aims for technological advancements and global standards in satellite deployment [8].

Core Insights - The commercial space industry is becoming a new high ground for global technological competition and economic development, with a complete industrial ecosystem covering rockets, satellites, and application services rapidly taking shape in China [1][3]. Group 1: Strategic Importance of Commercial Space - The global commercial space market is maturing and entering a golden era, driven by low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite internet and characterized by technological integration and collaborative innovation across the entire industry chain [13][21]. - Commercial space has been elevated to a strategic emerging industry in China, with significant government support and inclusion in national development plans [21][26]. Group 2: Competition for Low Earth Orbit Resources - Low Earth orbit is the focal point of competition in commercial space, as it offers advantages such as low transmission latency and flexible launch capabilities, making it ideal for global satellite internet [28][32]. - The U.S. leads in LEO satellite constellations, particularly with SpaceX's Starlink, which has deployed over 10,000 satellites and aims for a total of 42,000 [35][36]. Group 3: Development of China's Commercial Space Ecosystem - China has begun to establish a complete industrial chain in commercial space, covering upstream manufacturing, midstream launch operations, and downstream application services, with a focus on cost reduction and efficiency [4][19]. - The development of reusable rocket technology is progressing, which is expected to significantly lower launch costs, a critical factor for scaling the industry [4][41]. Group 4: Infrastructure and Satellite Constellation Initiatives - Multiple commercial space launch sites in China are being completed and put into operation to meet the increasing demand for frequent launches, enhancing overall launch capabilities [5][19]. - China has announced three major satellite constellation plans, including the GW constellation, which aims to deploy nearly 13,000 satellites, marking a significant step in its competitive positioning [46][48].