今天周末，聊个简单的话题：印度股市突然不香了。 有买了印度股市指数基金的朋友在网上无奈叹息：全球股市涨，你就涨不起来…… 买了印度指数基金的网友叹息印度股市涨不起来 当然，还有专业机构数据为证： 如果按照美元计价，印度股市今年只涨1.4%，在全球主要经济体和新兴市场中垫底。比如，新兴市场指数是28.9%，落后幅度是近二十年来最 大的。 不要说国内普通人，就是连华尔街精英也架不住印度股市拉胯表现。 同样有数据显示：到2025年10月底，已经有170多亿美元的外资逃离印股市。 要知道就在去年，印度股市指数基金爆火，不说外国，国内很多朋友可能还有印象。 从2013年末到2023年末，印度SENSEX30指数累计涨幅超270%。 所以，当时，很多人就去买印度股指基金，火爆到什么程度呢？ 你想买，但对不起，基金公司不卖了：限购，甚至直接暂停申购！ 2023年，工银印度市场基金暂停申购 截图来源：红星资本局 短短一年左右，印度股市怎么就突然不行了呢？ 最直接原因是：印度的钱不值钱了。 大家知道印度的货币是卢比。 最近，卢比兑美元已经屡创历史新低。 因为外国人投资印度股市要用卢比，但赚了钱落袋为安，又要换回自己国家的货币。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has shifted its stance on the Indian stock market to a positive outlook, upgrading its rating to "Overweight" due to supportive government policies, improved corporate earnings prospects, and low foreign investor holdings [1][3] Market Performance - The Nifty 50 index target for the end of 2026 is set at 29,000 points, indicating a potential upside of approximately 14% from current levels [1] - Since 2025, the Indian stock market has underperformed compared to regional markets, marking the largest lag in over two decades [3][4] Factors Supporting Optimism - **Supportive Policies**: The Indian central bank has implemented several easing measures, including interest rate cuts and tax reductions, which are expected to boost economic growth and consumer spending [5] - **Earnings Recovery**: Corporate profit growth for MSCI India index constituents is projected to accelerate from 10% in 2025 to 14% in 2026 [3][5] - **Low Foreign Holdings**: Foreign institutional investors have significantly reduced their holdings in Indian stocks, creating potential for recovery as earnings improve [5] - **Valuation Defense**: Despite being one of the most expensive emerging markets, the valuation premium has decreased from 85-90% to 45%, approaching historical averages [5][6] Investment Recommendations - **Sectors to Favor**: Goldman Sachs recommends focusing on sectors benefiting from domestic economic growth, including financials, consumer goods, and defense [7][8] - **Cautious on Exports**: The firm has downgraded the information technology sector to "Underweight" due to low growth visibility and uncertainties related to AI [8]

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley predicts that the Indian stock market is expected to reach historical highs in the coming months [1] Summary by Categories - **Market Outlook** - The Indian stock market is anticipated to achieve record levels shortly, indicating strong investor confidence and potential growth opportunities [1] - **Investment Opportunities** - The forecast suggests that investors may find lucrative opportunities in the Indian equity market as it approaches new highs, reflecting positive economic indicators and market sentiment [1]

Core Insights - The Indian stock market is experiencing minimal short-term fluctuations, with the SENSEX index remaining around the flatline [1] - Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar stated that India has no intention of escalating the situation, emphasizing that any military attack would be met with a strong response [1] Market Performance - The SENSEX index is maintaining stability, indicating a lack of significant market movement in the short term [1] Political Context - The statement from the Indian Foreign Minister reflects a cautious approach to current geopolitical tensions, aiming to reassure markets and investors of India's stance [1]