24年 - 25年10月降息周期: 美联储采取预防性降息策略，避免经济硬着陆，将利率从5.0%降至4.0%。期间恒生 港股通高股息低波动指数上涨52.10%，上涨幅度明显。这种差异不仅存在于港股，美国高股息指数同样呈现 分化：预防性降息周期中，标普美国股息增长指数上涨11.60%；而2020年危机性降息中则下跌18.56%, 略好于 同期S&P500指数的表现(收跌19.9%)。 图表：港美股红利指数与宽基全收益指数在降息周期的表现对比 数据来自Wind，截止至2025/11/10 二、历史规律：降息属性决定红利表现 近几天，美联储12月降息预期大幅攀升至89%左右，这一转变令全球市场为之振奋。纳斯达克, 标普500与港 股市场本周也应声上涨。然而，值得注意的是，作为"避风港"的红利资产表现更为稳健——恒生港股通高股 息低波动指数在过去一个月也录得5%的涨幅，展现出降息周期中独特的配置价值。在市场情绪高涨之际，投 资者不禁要问：美联储降息是否必然带来港股红利资产的普涨行情？历史数据会给出的答案。 一、红利资产对降息的差异化反应 通过对过去几轮美联储降息周期的分析，我们发现港股高股息资产的表现与其说是取决于"是 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for a shift in global asset classes due to the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and rising expectations for a rate cut in September, following a significant decline in U.S. employment data [1][5]. Historical Review: Federal Reserve Rate Cut Cycles - The article categorizes past Federal Reserve rate cut cycles into three scenarios: 1. **Preventive Rate Cuts** (1995-1996, 2019): Small and gradual cuts aimed at softening potential economic slowdowns [2]. 2. **Recessionary Rate Cuts** (2001-2004, 2007-2008): Large and rapid cuts in response to economic recessions or financial crises [3]. 3. **Crisis Response Rate Cuts** (1987, 1998): Quick measures taken to stabilize market sentiment during specific risk events [4]. Asset Performance During Rate Cut Cycles - **Equities**: Rate cuts typically boost risk appetite, leading to stock market gains. For instance, after the 2019 rate cut, the S&P 500 index rose nearly 10% over the following year [5][6]. - **Bonds**: The bond market often reacts first to rate cuts, with U.S. Treasury yields generally declining. Historically, 10-year Treasury yields have dropped by an average of 80-100 basis points during rate cut cycles [7]. - **Gold**: Gold tends to perform well during rate cut cycles due to lower holding costs and increased demand for safe-haven assets. Since 1990, gold has shown an 83% success rate in the 10 trading days following rate cuts [8][9]. Market Outlook and Strategy - The article suggests that if the Federal Reserve cuts rates, it may lead to a narrowing of the China-U.S. interest rate differential, potentially easing depreciation pressure on the RMB and allowing for more accommodative domestic monetary policy [7]. - It emphasizes the importance of maintaining diversified and flexible asset allocations to navigate market uncertainties, regardless of the rate cut outcome [10][11].