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LPG早报-20250901
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-01 04:21
报告行业投资评级 - Not provided 报告的核心观点 - PG main contract fluctuates weakly, with the cheapest deliverable being East China civil LPG at 4481. The basis first weakens then strengthens to 70 (+59). The 9 - 10 spread is -721 (-212), and the 10 - 11 spread is 87 (+7). The registered warrant volume is 13207 lots (+320). The September CP official price remains stable, with propane and butane at 520/490. The fundamentals show that port inventories are decreasing, refinery commercial volume increases by 2.47%, and overall, the market is expected to rise steadily [1] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 日度变化 - The daily change shows that the price of South China LPG remains unchanged, East China LPG increases by 5, Shandong LPG remains unchanged, propane CFR South China increases by 6, propane CIF Japan increases by 5, MB propane spot decreases by 1, CP forecast contract price decreases by 1, Shandong ether - post - carbon four increases by 20, Shandong alkylated oil remains unchanged, paper import profit decreases by 47, and the main basis increases by 3. P - to - PP production profit weakens, CP production cost is lower than FEI. The PG futures fluctuates, and the 10 - 11 spread is 87 (+10). The US - to - Far - East arbitrage window is closed. The cheapest deliverable on Friday is East China civil LPG at 4481 [1] 周度观点 - The PG main contract fluctuates weakly. The cheapest deliverable is East China civil LPG at 4481. The basis first weakens then strengthens to 70 (+59). The 9 - 10 spread is -721 (-212), the 10 - 11 spread is 87 (+7). The registered warrant volume is 13207 lots (+320). The September CP official price remains stable, with propane and butane at 520/490. FEI and CP spreads fluctuate, MB spreads strengthen, and the oil - gas ratio changes little. The domestic - foreign spread fluctuates. The PG - CP is 106, the PG - FEI is 85, and the FEI - CP is 21.5 (+4.5). The US - Asia arbitrage window fluctuates and is closed. The AFEI offshore discount is 5.5 (-0.5), and the CP South China CIF discount is 65 (+8). Freight rates are flat, the waiting time at the Panama Canal decreases, but the auction fee remains high. The FEI - MOPJ widens to -56 (-10), and the naphtha crack spread strengthens slightly. PDH spot profit changes little, and paper profit fluctuates downward. The production gross profit of alkylated oil declines. MTBE gross profit decreases. Fundamentally, port inventories are decreasing, refinery commercial volume increases by 2.47%, and plant inventories increase but are generally controllable. PDH operating rate is 73.02% (-2.64pct), Wanhua Phase II is under maintenance, and Quanzhou Guoheng restarts at the end of the week. Next week, Quanzhou Guoheng is expected to increase production, and Hebei Haiwei plans to shut down. The alkylation operating rate is 48.42% (+0.74), and the MTBE operating rate is 63.54% (+0). Although the peak season is coming to an end, demand remains weak. East China is the cheapest delivery area, with expected tight supply, improved demand, and increased import costs, and the overall market rises steadily [1]
液化石油气日报:利好驱动不足,市场氛围延续弱势-20250729
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 05:20
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Report Core View - The LPG fundamental is currently weak, with a dull market atmosphere. The PG main contract shows some signs of stabilization after continuous declines, and there is short - term support from the crude oil side. However, the expected decline in August CP prices suppresses the market. The overall supply is sufficient, demand is weak, and there is limited positive news [1] - The strategy for the LPG market is to expect a sideways movement, and attention should be paid to the bottom - building signals on the trading board [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On July 28, the regional LPG prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4570 - 4650 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 4190 - 4510 yuan/ton; North China market, 4530 - 4640 yuan/ton; East China market, 4280 - 4600 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market, 4500 - 4690 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4050 - 4300 yuan/ton; South China market, 4448 - 4550 yuan/ton [1] - In the second half of August 2025, the CIF prices of frozen LPG in East China were propane at 546 dollars/ton (down 6 dollars/ton) and butane at 523 dollars/ton (down 6 dollars/ton), equivalent to 4296 yuan/ton (down 42 yuan/ton) and 4115 yuan/ton (down 42 yuan/ton) in RMB respectively. In South China, propane was at 539 dollars/ton (down 8 dollars/ton) and butane at 516 dollars/ton (down 10 dollars/ton), equivalent to 4241 yuan/ton (down 58 yuan/ton) and 4060 yuan/ton (down 74 yuan/ton) in RMB respectively [1] - The LPG fundamental is weak, with a dull market atmosphere. Although the PG main contract shows some signs of stabilization after continuous declines and there is short - term support from the crude oil side, the expected decline in August CP prices suppresses the market. Overseas supply remains abundant, domestic supply is sufficient, and demand is weak [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Sideways movement, pay attention to the bottom - building signals on the trading board; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [2]
液化石油气日报:市场氛围一般,关注盘面筑底信号-20250725
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-25 07:07
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The LPG fundamentals are currently weak, with a dull market atmosphere. The PG main contract shows some signs of stabilization after continuous declines, and there is also some short - term support from the crude oil side. The strategy for the single - side is to expect a volatile market and focus on the bottom - building signals of the market [1][2]. 3) Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - On July 24, regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4520 - 4670; Northeast market, 4190 - 4380; North China market, 4530 - 4680; East China market, 4330 - 4600; Yangtze River market, 4500 - 4690; Northwest market, 4070 - 4250; South China market, 4548 - 4700 [1]. - In the second half of August 2025, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China was 552 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars/ton, and butane was 529 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4338 yuan/ton, up 77 yuan/ton, and butane was 4157 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton. In South China, the CIF price of frozen propane was 547 US dollars/ton, up 11 US dollars/ton, and butane was 526 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4299 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton, and butane was 4134 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton [1]. - The LPG fundamentals are weak, with a dull market atmosphere. The PG main contract has some signs of stabilization after continuous declines, and there is short - term support from the crude oil side. Spot prices in the Yangtze River and Northwest regions increased slightly, while prices in other regions remained stable. Overseas supply is abundant, US exports are at a high level, the arrival volume in July increased again, and the decline in domestic commodity volume is limited, resulting in sufficient overall supply. The demand for civil gas is in the off - season, and the combustion demand is weak. The profit of PDH in deep - processing has improved marginally recently, and the operating rate has rebounded to around 75% this week [1]. Strategy - Single - side: Volatile, focus on the bottom - building signals of the market. - Cross - period: None. - Cross - variety: None. - Spot - futures: None. - Options: None [2]. Figures The report includes figures showing various data such as spot prices of civil LPG in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Northeast, Yangtze River), spot prices of ether - after carbon four in different regions (Shandong, East China, North China, Northeast, Yangtze River, Northwest), and closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of PG futures contracts (main contract, index, near - month contract) [3].