乳业股集体反弹，截至发稿，蒙牛乳业(02319)涨3.78%，报14.84港元；中国飞鹤(06186)涨3.36%，报4 港元；中国圣牧(01432)涨1.69%，报0.3港元。 财通证券（601108）指出，育儿补贴靴子落地，乳制品板块有望率先受益。华福证券指出，当前原奶价 格处于周期底部，9月12日行业原奶价格跌至3.03元/公斤，周环比持平，较周期高点累计下跌31%。原 奶亏损与现金流压力预计推动产能去化持续。随着产能去化传导至供给收缩，原奶价格周期有望后续企 稳回升。 消息面上，7月28日，国家育儿补贴制度实施方案公布，面向育儿家庭全国范围全面直接发放现金补 贴。从2025年1月1日起，每孩每年发放育儿补贴3600元，至其年满3周岁。9月18日，国家卫生健康委办 公厅、财政部办公厅印发关于育儿补贴制度管理规范(试行)的通知。 ...

消息面上，7月28日，国家育儿补贴制度实施方案公布，面向育儿家庭全国范围全面直接发放现金补 贴。从2025年1月1日起，每孩每年发放育儿补贴3600元，至其年满3周岁。9月18日，国家卫生健康委办 公厅、财政部办公厅印发关于育儿补贴制度管理规范（试行）的通知。 智通财经APP获悉，乳业股集体反弹，截至发稿，蒙牛乳业(02319)涨3.78%，报14.84港元；中国飞鹤 (06186)涨3.36%，报4港元；中国圣牧(01432)涨1.69%，报0.3港元。 财通证券指出，育儿补贴靴子落地，乳制品板块有望率先受益。华福证券指出，当前原奶价格处于周期 底部，9月12日行业原奶价格跌至3.03元/公斤，周环比持平，较周期高点累计下跌31%。原奶亏损与现 金流压力预计推动产能去化持续。随着产能去化传导至供给收缩，原奶价格周期有望后续企稳回升。 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the food and beverage industry as "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The dairy price is expected to stabilize in the second half of 2025 after a prolonged adjustment cycle lasting over three years, with over 80% of the industry facing losses [6][60] - The report highlights the cyclical nature of raw milk prices influenced by production capacity, demand, and imports, with significant historical fluctuations noted [6][19] - The report emphasizes the correlation between raw milk prices and the stock prices of upstream dairy companies, suggesting that stock prices may react ahead of milk prices during cyclical changes [6][35] Summary by Sections 1. Raw Milk Price Cycle - The raw milk price is influenced by multiple factors including production capacity, demand, and imports, creating a cyclical pattern [6][19] - The dairy industry is characterized by a long breeding cycle for dairy cows, leading to delayed responses in production capacity adjustments [18][19] - Historical data shows three downward cycles and two upward cycles in raw milk prices since 2008, with significant events impacting demand and prices [19][26] 2. 2025 Outlook - The industry is currently facing severe losses, with a continued trend of dairy cow capacity reduction expected [60][62] - Policy support is anticipated to improve dairy product demand, contributing to a gradual stabilization of milk prices in the latter half of 2025 [60][64] - The report forecasts that as the supply-demand balance improves, raw milk prices may stabilize, benefiting upstream dairy companies [60][62] 3. Correlation Between Milk Prices and Dairy Company Stocks - The report notes a high correlation between raw milk prices and the stock prices of upstream dairy companies, indicating that stock prices may respond more quickly to changes in market conditions [6][35] - The performance of downstream dairy companies is also influenced by their product structure and market expectations, which can affect their stock prices during different price cycles [6][35] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading dairy companies such as Modern Dairy and Yurun Dairy, as well as major dairy enterprises like Yili and New Dairy, which are expected to benefit from the stabilization of milk prices [6][60]