智通财经APP获悉，方正证券发布研报称，目前本轮奶价下行周期持续时长已超过50个月，预计本轮周期向上拐点正在到来。原奶供需矛盾逐步缓解，新一 轮向上周期拐点即将到来，板块及核心企业经营业绩及估值水平有望随之改善，部分企业有望跟随向上周期迎来戴维斯双击。 方正证券主要观点如下： 供需矛盾逐步缓解，原奶价格周期拐点在即 风险提示：原奶价格回升不及预期，行业需求复苏不及预期，行业竞争格局进一步恶化，提振消费、监管政策发生不利变动，食品安全风险。 复盘过往，原奶周期拐点间隔一般3~4年，目前本轮下行周期持续时长已超过50个月，预计本轮周期向上拐点正在到来。基本面维度，饲料价格和牛肉价格 上涨或将加速上游牧场出清速度，国内奶牛存栏量进一步去化，生鲜乳产量已经开始拐头向下，企业喷粉库存高位回落，内部供给收缩趋势正愈加明朗;进 口乳制品折算价格反超国内原奶价格，且预期未来该内外价差或将维持较长时间，若对欧盟乳制品反补贴措施终裁落地，或将进一步加速乳制品国产替代， 外部供给有望随之较大幅度减少，整体供给将逐步收缩;叠加未来出台的提振消费政策将有助于推动下游需求回暖，原奶供需矛盾或将逐步缓解，最终促使 原奶价格拐头向上。 乳品 ...

Core Viewpoint - Yuran Agriculture (09858) has seen its stock price increase by over 20% this week, with a current rise of 5.13% to HKD 4.3, and a trading volume of HKD 105 million [1] Group 1: Cattle Prices - As of November 21, the price of calves is HKD 32/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.63% and a year-to-date increase of 32.73% [1] - The price of fattened bulls is HKD 25.58/kg, showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.16% but a year-to-date increase of 8.25% [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Outlook - Due to previous long-term losses, there has been a significant reduction in production capacity, leading to a gradual decrease in breeding cows, which is expected to tighten beef supply in the medium to long term [1] - It is anticipated that beef prices will enter an upward cycle between 2026 and 2027 [1] Group 3: Raw Milk Prices - The reduction in production capacity is expected to lead to a contraction in raw milk supply, with prices likely to stabilize and recover in the coming year [1] - Analysts expect a new cycle for beef prices to begin, with the sector's overall outlook improving [1]

Core Viewpoint - YouRan Agriculture (09858) has seen its stock price increase by over 20% this week, with a current price of 4.3 HKD, reflecting a 5.13% rise as of the latest report [1] Price Trends - The price of calves is reported at 32 CNY/kg, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.63% and a year-to-date increase of 32.73% [1] - The price of fattened bulls is at 25.58 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.16% but a year-to-date increase of 8.25% [1] Supply and Demand Outlook - Due to previous long-term losses, there has been a significant reduction in production capacity, leading to a gradual decrease in the number of breeding cows. This effect is expected to tighten beef supply in the medium to long term, with beef prices anticipated to enter an upward cycle between 2026 and 2027 [1] - The reduction in production capacity is expected to stabilize and eventually increase raw milk prices in the coming year [1] Market Sentiment - Guojin Securities forecasts that as the supply-side capacity reduction continues, raw milk prices are likely to stabilize and recover next year [1] - Recent increases in calf and live cattle prices suggest the potential onset of a new beef cycle, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - The dairy sector is experiencing a collective rebound in stock prices, driven by the implementation of a nationwide cash subsidy for child-rearing families, which is expected to benefit the dairy products segment significantly [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Mengniu Dairy (02319) shares increased by 3.78%, reaching HKD 14.84 [1] - China Feihe (06186) shares rose by 3.36%, trading at HKD 4 [1] - China Shengmu (01432) shares gained 1.69%, priced at HKD 0.3 [1] Group 2: Policy Impact - On July 28, the national child-rearing subsidy scheme was announced, providing direct cash subsidies to families across the country [1] - Starting from January 1, 2025, a subsidy of CNY 3,600 per child will be issued annually until the child turns three years old [1] - On September 18, the National Health Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued a notice regarding the management norms for the child-rearing subsidy system [1] Group 3: Market Conditions - According to Citic Securities, the implementation of the child-rearing subsidy is expected to benefit the dairy products sector first [1] - Huafu Securities noted that the current raw milk prices are at a cyclical low, with prices at CNY 3.03 per kilogram as of September 12, remaining stable week-on-week and down 31% from the cyclical peak [1] - The ongoing losses in raw milk and cash flow pressures are anticipated to lead to continued capacity reduction, which may stabilize and eventually increase raw milk prices as supply contracts [1]

Core Viewpoint - The dairy sector is experiencing a collective rebound, driven by the implementation of a nationwide cash subsidy for child-rearing families, which is expected to benefit the dairy products segment significantly [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - Mengniu Dairy (02319) shares rose by 3.78%, reaching HKD 14.84 - China Feihe (06186) shares increased by 3.36%, reaching HKD 4 - China Shengmu (01432) shares grew by 1.69%, reaching HKD 0.3 [1][1][1] Group 2: Policy Impact - On July 28, the national child-rearing subsidy implementation plan was announced, providing direct cash subsidies to families across the country - Starting from January 1, 2025, a subsidy of CNY 3,600 per child will be issued annually until the child turns three years old - On September 18, the National Health Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued a notice regarding the management norms for the child-rearing subsidy system (trial) [1][1][1] Group 3: Industry Analysis - According to Caitong Securities, the dairy products sector is expected to benefit first from the child-rearing subsidies - Huafu Securities noted that the current raw milk prices are at the bottom of the cycle, with prices dropping to CNY 3.03 per kilogram as of September 12, remaining stable week-on-week, and down 31% from the cycle peak - The ongoing losses in raw milk and cash flow pressures are expected to drive continued capacity reduction, which may lead to a stabilization and recovery of raw milk prices in the future [1][1][1]

Investment Rating - The report rates the food and beverage industry as "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The dairy price is expected to stabilize in the second half of 2025 after a prolonged adjustment cycle lasting over three years, with over 80% of the industry facing losses [6][60] - The report highlights the cyclical nature of raw milk prices influenced by production capacity, demand, and imports, with significant historical fluctuations noted [6][19] - The report emphasizes the correlation between raw milk prices and the stock prices of upstream dairy companies, suggesting that stock prices may react ahead of milk prices during cyclical changes [6][35] Summary by Sections 1. Raw Milk Price Cycle - The raw milk price is influenced by multiple factors including production capacity, demand, and imports, creating a cyclical pattern [6][19] - The dairy industry is characterized by a long breeding cycle for dairy cows, leading to delayed responses in production capacity adjustments [18][19] - Historical data shows three downward cycles and two upward cycles in raw milk prices since 2008, with significant events impacting demand and prices [19][26] 2. 2025 Outlook - The industry is currently facing severe losses, with a continued trend of dairy cow capacity reduction expected [60][62] - Policy support is anticipated to improve dairy product demand, contributing to a gradual stabilization of milk prices in the latter half of 2025 [60][64] - The report forecasts that as the supply-demand balance improves, raw milk prices may stabilize, benefiting upstream dairy companies [60][62] 3. Correlation Between Milk Prices and Dairy Company Stocks - The report notes a high correlation between raw milk prices and the stock prices of upstream dairy companies, indicating that stock prices may respond more quickly to changes in market conditions [6][35] - The performance of downstream dairy companies is also influenced by their product structure and market expectations, which can affect their stock prices during different price cycles [6][35] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading dairy companies such as Modern Dairy and Yurun Dairy, as well as major dairy enterprises like Yili and New Dairy, which are expected to benefit from the stabilization of milk prices [6][60]