Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The macro - policy's short - term positive factors are exhausted, and the market will return to fundamental dominance. The technical graph of logs is in the ascending flag consolidation stage with weakening fluctuations, and funds are continuously withdrawing. The market is oscillating around the valuation, and the recent decline has repaired the over - valued situation, with the current valuation at a neutral level. The impact of the earthquake in the Kamchatka Peninsula is minimal, and the spot price is stable. The strategy is to sell lg2509 - p - 800 on dips [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Log Price Range Forecast - The predicted monthly price range for logs is 820 - 860. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 16.28%, and its historical percentile over 3 years is 67.4% [2]. 3.2 Log Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management**: When log imports are high and inventory is at a high level, to prevent inventory losses, enterprises can short log futures (lg2509) according to their inventory, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 850 - 875 [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, to prevent rising log prices from increasing procurement costs, enterprises can buy log futures (lg2509) at present, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 810 - 820 [2]. 3.3 Core Contradictions - The macro - policy's short - term positive factors are exhausted, and the market will return to fundamental dominance. There is an expectation gap in the policy. The technical graph is in the ascending flag consolidation stage, with weakening fluctuations and continuous capital withdrawal. The market oscillates around the valuation, and the recent decline has repaired the over - valued situation, with the current valuation at a neutral level. The earthquake in the Kamchatka Peninsula has little impact, and the spot price is stable. The strategy is to sell lg2509 - p - 800 on dips [3]. 3.4 Positive Factors - Due to continuous import losses, traders have the intention to jointly support prices [4]. 3.5 Negative Factors - **Spot and Basis**: The document provides detailed spot prices, price changes, and basis data for different specifications of logs at various ports on July 31, 2025. The basis (after conversion) is calculated as the spot price after a 108% increase in length - the main contract's disk price ± the premium or discount [5][8]. - Other negative factors include the "off - peak season" phenomenon and the continuous increase in foreign shipments [7]. 3.6 Log Data Overview - **Supply**: The radiation pine import volume in June 2025 was 1.61 million m³, a decrease of 80,000 m³ from the previous period but a 35.3% increase year - on - year [9]. - **Inventory**: As of July 25, 2025, the national port inventory was 3.17 million m³, a decrease of 120,000 m³ from the previous period and a 3.4% decrease year - on - year. The port inventory in Shandong was 1,930,000 m³, a decrease of 2,000 m³ from the previous period but a 5.8% increase year - on - year. The port inventory in Jiangsu was 1,016,400 m³, a decrease of 91,169 m³ from the previous period and a 21.4% increase year - on - year [9]. - **Demand**: As of July 25, 2025, the daily average log port outbound volume was 64,100 m³, an increase of 1,700 m³ from the previous period and a 27.2% increase year - on - year. The daily average outbound volume in Shandong was 33,900 m³, an increase of 300 m³ from the previous period and a 34.5% increase year - on - year. The daily average outbound volume in Jiangsu was 24,600 m³, an increase of 1,400 m³ from the previous period and a 31.6% increase year - on - year [9]. - **Profit**: As of August 1, 2025, the radiation pine import profit was - 82 yuan/m³, a decrease of 1 yuan/m³ from the previous period. The spruce import profit was - 95 yuan/m³, an increase of 2 yuan/m³ from the previous period [9]. - **Main Spot Prices**: The spot prices of several specifications of logs on July 31, 2025, remained unchanged from the previous day, with varying year - on - year decreases [9]. - **External Market Quotations**: The CFR on August 1, 2025, was 114 US dollars/JASm³, unchanged from the previous period and a 3.4% decrease year - on - year [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity sentiment has cooled down, and the leading stocks have lost momentum. The market is dull, with a continuous oscillatory adjustment after a peak. The trading volume has been declining since last week's peak. There is no obvious driving force after the valuation repair, and there is no significant contradiction in the fundamentals. There are relatively more ship - buying activities recently, leading to short - term arrival pressure. The spot price has changed little, and the pressure from the delivery goods will be gradually digested by the market. The current futures price is slightly overvalued based on the warehouse receipt cost in Taicang, while the hedging profit is better when anchored to the warehouse receipt cost in Chongqing. Industry customers who are not optimistic about the future market can consider hedging after August to lock in the futures profit and quickly recover funds through delivery. According to the latest data from Steel Union, the CFR quotation remains unchanged at $114. There is no obvious contradiction in inventory and delivery volume. Due to cost support, the strategy can consider selling the lg2509 - p - 800 contract at an appropriate time [3] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Log Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for logs is 820 - 860, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.28% and a historical percentile of 67.4% over the past 3 years [2] 3.2 Log Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management**: When the log import volume is high and the inventory is at a high level, and there are concerns about price drops, for long - position spot exposure, it is recommended to short log futures (lg2509) to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an advisable entry range of 850 - 875 [2] - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is to be made according to order situations, for short - position spot exposure, it is recommended to buy log futures (lg2509) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an advisable entry range of 810 - 820 [2] 3.3 Core Contradictions - The commodity market is dull after a peak, with the trading volume declining. There is no obvious driving force after the valuation repair, and there is no significant fundamental contradiction. There is short - term arrival pressure, and the delivery pressure will be digested. The current futures price is slightly overvalued based on Taicang's warehouse receipt cost, while the hedging profit is better when anchored to Chongqing's cost. Industry customers can consider hedging after August. The CFR quotation remains unchanged, and there is no obvious contradiction in inventory and delivery volume. A strategy of selling the lg2509 - p - 800 contract at an appropriate time can be considered [3] 3.4 Spot and Basis - On July 29, 2025, the spot prices of different specifications of logs in various ports (such as 3.9 large (3.8A) in Rizhao Port, 4 large (3.8A) in Taicang Port, etc.) and their corresponding basis values are presented. Some spot prices have no change, while some have small fluctuations. The basis values vary according to different specifications and ports [5][8] 3.5利多解读 (Likely Positive Factors) - Traders are willing to jointly support prices due to continuous import losses; the import cost continues to rise; the overall commodity sentiment has improved; and there is an impact from funds [7] 3.6利空解读 (Likely Negative Factors) - The peak season fails to show strong performance; the foreign shipment volume continues to increase [7] 3.7 Log Data Overview - **Supply**: The radiation pine import volume in June 2025 was 1.61 million m³, a decrease of 80,000 m³ from the previous period but a 35.3% increase year - on - year [9] - **Inventory**: As of July 25, 2025, the national port inventory was 3.17 million m³, a decrease of 120,000 m³ from the previous week and a 3.4% decrease year - on - year. The port inventory in Shandong was 1,930,000 m³, a decrease of 2,000 m³ from the previous week but a 5.8% increase year - on - year. The port inventory in Jiangsu was 1,016,400 m³, a decrease of 91,169 m³ from the previous week and a 21.4% increase year - on - year [9] - **Demand**: As of July 25, 2025, the average daily log delivery volume at ports was 64,100 m³, an increase of 1,700 m³ from the previous week and a 27.2% increase year - on - year. The average daily delivery volume in Shandong was 33,900 m³, an increase of 300 m³ from the previous week and a 34.5% increase year - on - year. The average daily delivery volume in Jiangsu was 24,600 m³, an increase of 1,400 m³ from the previous week and a 31.6% increase year - on - year [9] - **Profit**: As of August 1, 2025, the radiation pine import profit was - 82 yuan/m³, a decrease of 1 yuan/m³ from the previous week. The spruce import profit was - 95 yuan/m³, an increase of 2 yuan/m³ from the previous week [9] - **Main Spot Prices**: On July 29, 2025, the spot prices of some log specifications (such as 3.9 medium (3.8A) in Rizhao Port, 4 medium (3.8A) in Taicang Port) showed no change compared to the previous period, with varying year - on - year decreases [9] - **External Market Quotation**: As of August 1, 2025, the CFR quotation was $114, unchanged from the previous period and a 3.4% decrease year - on - year [9]

Report Title Nanhua Log Industry Risk Management Daily Report, July 9, 2025 - Spot Price of Taicang Delivery Goods Weakens [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The current cost of logs has support, but the spot digestion ability may face certain pressure, and the log futures market is expected to fluctuate weakly [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Log Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for logs is 740 - 820 yuan per cubic meter, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.28% and a historical percentile of 67.4% over the past 3 years [2]. Log Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management**: With high log import volume and high inventory, and concerns about price drops, enterprises with long - spot exposure can short log futures (lg2509) at 800 - 820 yuan per cubic meter, with a hedging ratio of 25% to lock in profits and cover production costs [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, enterprises with short - spot exposure can buy log futures (lg2509) at 750 - 800 yuan per cubic meter, with a hedging ratio of 25% to lock in procurement costs in advance [2]. Core Contradictions in Delivery - The first - month delivery of the 07 contract is in progress. Manual and intelligent measurement are randomly matched. The intelligent measurement has a larger over - measurement rate, estimated at a 2% range. The delivery efficiency has gradually improved, with manual measurement achieving a pre - measurement mechanism, increasing the delivery rate to about 40 - 45 minutes per lot. The actual delivery cost at Taicang Xinhai Wharf is 7 yuan per cubic meter. Sellers may face friction costs due to non - standard log shapes, which can be reduced by paying sorting fees or accepted as random costs. If the goods are of good quality, the random cost can be less than 10 yuan per cubic meter. Buyers without direct processing ability need to sell the received logs at a discount to processing plants [3]. Spot Market - The price of 6 - meter medium - grade A logs in Taicang dropped by 20 yuan to 750 yuan per cubic meter. The latest CFR quote has a maximum of 117 US dollars, increasing import costs, but the possibility of weakening ocean freight makes the sustainability of this quote uncertain. On the demand side, the daily outbound volume remains high. Although the real estate market is weak, furniture consumption provides support, and the national subsidy policy boosts the demand for pallets in related fields. The ongoing delivery process allows downstream processing plants to continuously absorb delivery goods for replenishment. If the absorption willingness weakens in the future, the spot price may continue to decline. Overseas shipment volume shows no obvious weakening, and there is still pressure on future arrivals [4]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive Factors**: Traders have the intention to jointly support prices due to continuous import losses; import costs continue to rise; the overall sentiment in the commodity market has improved [8]. - **Negative Factors**: The outflow of delivery goods from the 07 contract suppresses the spot price; the continuous increase in foreign shipment volume [8]. Spot and Basis - The report provides spot prices, price changes, spot over - measurement conversions,主力 contract prices, delivery premiums and discounts, and basis calculations for different log specifications in different ports on July 9, 2025. The formula for the converted basis is: Converted basis = Spot price after over - measurement (108%) - Main contract price ± Premium or discount [8][9]. Log Data Overview - **Supply**: The imported volume of radiata pine in May 2025 was 169 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 4 million cubic meters and a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. - **Inventory**: As of July 4, 2025, the national port inventory was 323 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 13 million cubic meters. The port inventory in Shandong was 1,926,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 85,000 cubic meters and a year - on - year increase of 5.1%. The port inventory in Jiangsu was 1,093,911 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 20,589 cubic meters and a year - on - year increase of 40%. - **Demand**: As of July 4, 2025, the average daily outbound volume of logs at ports was 6.69 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 0.12 million cubic meters and a year - on - year increase of 32.7%. The average daily outbound volume in Shandong was 3.9 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 0.35 million cubic meters and a year - on - year increase of 60.5%. The average daily outbound volume in Jiangsu was 2.15 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 0.07 million cubic meters and a year - on - year increase of 22.9%. - **Profit**: As of July 11, 2025, the import profit of radiata pine was - 73 yuan per cubic meter, a week - on - week decrease of 29 yuan. The import profit of spruce was - 38 yuan per cubic meter, a week - on - week increase of 19 yuan [10].