Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The valuation of logs is relatively strong this week with regional price differentiation. The support for the valuation comes from tight domestic arrivals, continuous inventory reduction, and a $3 increase in the February foreign market, which raises the procurement cost of traders. However, the approaching Spring Festival leads to a market shutdown and a temporary decline in demand, so the valuation lacks the momentum for continuous growth. Attention should be paid to the recovery of post - holiday resumption demand and the increase in arrivals from New Zealand [7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - On the supply side, the shipment from New Zealand has returned to normal, but the arrival volume at 13 domestic ports has decreased by 15% month - on - month to 185,000 cubic meters, still at a relatively low level. On the demand side, as the Spring Festival approaches, the spot market is closed, and the national daily average outbound volume has slightly decreased by 0.16%. However, the capital availability of construction sites has continuously improved, with the growth rate of housing construction projects leading, driving some projects to rush for work and stock up. There is regional demand differentiation, with an increase in outbound volume in Shandong and Fujian and a decline in Jiangsu. On the inventory side, the total port inventory has decreased by 2.81% month - on - month to 2.42 million cubic meters. The main timber species such as radiata pine are all in a state of inventory reduction, and the inventory in major ports such as Shandong and Jiangsu has generally decreased, with overall tight supply [6]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Hold a wait - and - see attitude. Aggressive investors can lay out long positions based on last month's low point. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the reverse arbitrage of log 03 - 05. - Options: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [8][9] Core Logic Analysis - The log valuation is strong this week with regional price differentiation. The support for the valuation comes from tight domestic arrivals, continuous inventory reduction, and a $3 increase in the February foreign market, which raises the procurement cost of traders. The suppressing factor is the approaching Spring Festival, which leads to a market shutdown and a temporary decline in demand. In the short term, there is a game between cost support and the off - season of demand, and the valuation lacks the momentum for continuous growth. Attention should be paid to the recovery of post - holiday resumption demand and the increase in arrivals from New Zealand [7]. Weekly Data Tracking Log Supply - The expected shipment volume of New Zealand logs to China in January 2026 is 933,000 cubic meters, a 39% decrease compared to December. The number of shipment vessels is 29, a decrease of 26 compared to December. From January 31 to February 6, 2026, New Zealand directly shipped 9 vessels with 340,000 cubic meters of logs to China, an increase of 2 vessels and 70,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week. From February 2 to February 8, 2026, the pre - arrival vessels of New Zealand logs at 13 Chinese ports are 5, 2 less than the previous week, a 29% week - on - week decrease; the total arrival volume is about 185,000 cubic meters, 33,000 cubic meters less than the previous week, a 15% week - on - week decrease [18][19]. Log Inventory - As of January 30, the total domestic log inventory of different materials is 2.42 million cubic meters, a decrease of 70,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week, a 2.81% week - on - week decrease. The radiata pine inventory is 2.06 million cubic meters, a decrease of 60,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week, a 2.83% week - on - week decrease. The North American timber inventory is 110,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week, an 8.33% week - on - week decrease. The spruce/fir inventory is 110,000 cubic meters, the same as the previous week. In terms of different provinces, as of January 30, the total inventory of 3 ports in Shandong is 1,771,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 117,000 cubic meters compared to the previous period; the total inventory of 3 ports in Jiangsu is 407,604 cubic meters, a decrease of 117,000 cubic meters compared to the previous period; the total inventory of 3 ports in Fujian is 124,223 cubic meters, a decrease of 20,057 cubic meters compared to the previous period [22]. Log Demand - As of January 30, the daily average outbound volume of logs at 13 ports is 61,700 cubic meters, a decrease of 100 cubic meters compared to the previous period, a 0.16% week - on - week decrease. Among them, the daily average total outbound volume of 3 ports in Shandong is 38,900 cubic meters, an increase of 2,800 cubic meters compared to the previous period, a 7.76% week - on - week increase; the daily average total outbound volume of 3 ports in Jiangsu is 15,900 cubic meters, a decrease of 3,500 cubic meters compared to the previous period, an 18.04% week - on - week decrease; the daily average total outbound volume of 3 ports in Fujian is 5,200 cubic meters, an increase of 1,200 cubic meters compared to the previous period, a 30% week - on - week increase. As of February 3, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites is 60.27%, a 0.59 - percentage - point increase week - on - week. Among them, the capital availability rate of non - housing construction projects is 61.18%, a 0.54 - percentage - point increase week - on - week; the capital availability rate of housing construction projects is 55.71%, a 0.72 - percentage - point increase week - on - week [26]. Log Prices - In Shandong, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port this week is 750 yuan per cubic meter, a 10 - yuan increase compared to last week, a 1.35% week - on - week increase, and a 60 - yuan decrease compared to the same period last year, a 7.41% year - on - year decrease. In Jiangsu, the price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs at Taicang Port this week is 780 yuan per cubic meter, the same as last week. In Shandong, the price of 11.8 - meter 20cm + general - quality spruce logs at Rizhao Port this week is 1150 yuan per cubic meter, the same as last week, and a 100 - yuan increase compared to last year, a 9.52% year - on - year increase [33]. - For radiata pine wood squares, taking 3000*40*90 radiata pine wood squares as an example, the mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market is 1270 yuan per cubic meter, and in the Jiangsu market is 1290 yuan per cubic meter. For spruce/white pine wood squares, taking 3000*40*90 white pine wood squares as an example, the mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market is 1730 yuan per cubic meter, and in the Jiangsu market is 1680 yuan per cubic meter [38]. Import Log Costs - In February 2026, the FOB price (CFR) of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs is $113 per JAS cubic meter, a $3 increase compared to last month. The FOB price (CFR) of 11.8 - meter 20+ spruce logs is 125 euros per JAS cubic meter, a 1 - euro increase compared to last month [45].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 8, 2026, the log futures fluctuated strongly, with the main contract LG2603 closing at 782 yuan per cubic meter, up 8 yuan per cubic meter from the previous day [3] - The spot price of the main benchmark delivery product remained unchanged. The price of medium A radiata pine of 3.9 meters in Shandong was 740 yuan per cubic meter, and that of medium A radiata pine of 4 meters in Jiangsu was 730 yuan per cubic meter. The latest round of FOB quotes was 110 US dollars per JAS cubic meter, down 2 US dollars [3] - Last week, inventory started to accumulate. As of January 2, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.67 million cubic meters, an increase of 130,000 cubic meters from the previous week. Demand continued to decline slightly. As of January 2, the average daily log delivery volume was 56,500 cubic meters, a decrease of 18,000 cubic meters from the previous week [3] - From January 5 - 11, 2026, 13 New Zealand log ships are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, an increase of 1 ship from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 8%; the total arrival volume is about 479,000 cubic meters, an increase of 70,500 cubic meters from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 17% [3] - The 01 contract continued to be deeply discounted for delivery, and the buyer's willingness to take delivery remained poor. The 03 contract has less inventory pressure due to low inventory and the expected decrease in later shipments, but the demand remains weak and the upward adjustment space is limited. Overall, the contradiction is insufficient, with limited upward and downward drivers, and the market is expected to fluctuate within a range [3] Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog Futures and Spot Prices - On January 7, the prices of log futures contracts 2601, 2603, 2605, and 2607 were 742, 782, 790.5, and 802 respectively, with changes of -25.5, 8, 5.5, and 5 compared to January 6, and the corresponding price change percentages were -3.32%, 1.03%, 0.70%, and 0.63% respectively. The basis of the main contract was -42, a decrease of 8 compared to January 6 [1] - The spot prices of various types of radiata pine and spruce in Rizhao Port and Taicang Port remained unchanged on January 7 compared to January 6 [1] - The FOB quote of medium A 4 - meter radiata pine on January 9 was 110 US dollars per JAS cubic meter, a decrease of 2 US dollars compared to January 2, with a decrease rate of 1.79%; the FOB quote of 11.8 - meter spruce was 124 euros per JAS cubic meter, unchanged from January 2 [1] Cost: Import Cost Calculation - On January 7, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 6.984, an increase of 0.01 compared to January 6. The import theoretical cost was 756.62 yuan, a decrease of 12.50 yuan compared to January 6, with a decrease rate of 2% [1] Supply: Monthly - As of November 30, the shipping volume from the port was 1.914 million cubic meters, an increase of 22,000 cubic meters compared to October 31, with an increase rate of 1.16%. The number of departing vessels from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 52, an increase of 3 compared to the previous period, with an increase rate of 6.12% [1] Inventory: Main Port Inventory - As of January 2, the total domestic log inventory was 2.67 million cubic meters, an increase of 130,000 cubic meters compared to December 26, with an increase rate of 5.12%. The inventory in Shandong was 1.95 million cubic meters, an increase of 98,000 cubic meters compared to December 26, with an increase rate of 5.29%. The inventory in Jiangsu was 508,800 cubic meters [1][3] Demand: (Weekly) Average Daily Delivery Volume - As of January 2, the average daily log delivery volume in China was 56,500 cubic meters, a decrease of 18,000 cubic meters compared to December 26, with a decrease rate of 3%. The average daily delivery volume in Shandong was 28,900 cubic meters, an increase of 1,000 cubic meters compared to December 26, with an increase rate of 4%. The average daily delivery volume in Jiangsu was 21,700 cubic meters, a decrease of 2,700 cubic meters compared to December 26, with a decrease rate of 11% [3]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - From December 22 - 28, 2025, the number of pre - arrival ships of New Zealand logs at 13 ports in China was 9, a decrease of 6 from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 40%; the total arrival volume was about 309,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 215,000 cubic meters from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 41% [3] - With low inventory and expected reduction in later shipments, some spot prices in Jiangsu region were raised last week. The fundamentals of the 03 contract have marginally improved, but demand remains weak, and the overall upward adjustment space is limited. The market is expected to fluctuate within a range [3] Group 3: Summary by Category Futures and Spot Prices - On December 26, the prices of log futures contracts showed different trends: log 2601 was 766.0, up 0.5 (0.07%) from the previous day; log 2603 was 776.5, down 1.5 (-0.19%); log 2605 was 787.0, up 1.5 (0.19%) [2] - The prices of various spot logs in Rizhao Port and Taicang Port remained unchanged on December 26 compared with the previous day, and the outer - market quotes also remained stable [2] - The import theoretical cost on December 26 was 771.91 yuan, up 0.58 yuan from the previous day, and the RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 7.002 yuan, up 0.01 yuan [2] Supply - In November, the port shipping volume was 189.2 million cubic meters, a decrease of 12.1 million cubic meters (-6.01%) from October [2] - The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 49, a decrease of 5 (-9.26%) from the previous period [2] Inventory - As of December 19, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs was 2.6 million cubic meters, a decrease of 120,000 cubic meters compared with the previous week [3] - In different regions, the inventory in China decreased by 4.41%, in Shandong by 3.77%, and in Jiangsu by 9.85% [2][3] Demand - As of December 19, the daily average outbound volume of logs was 63,200 cubic meters, a decrease of 14,000 cubic meters compared with the previous week [3] - In different regions, the daily average outbound volume in China decreased by 2%, in Shandong by 3%, and in Jiangsu increased by 1% [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The log futures market showed oscillatory movements. The main contract LG2603 closed at 778 yuan per cubic meter, up 2 yuan per cubic meter from the previous day. The spot price of the main benchmark delivery product increased by 10 yuan per cubic meter. The latest round of FOB quotes was 112 US dollars per JAS cubic meter. The inventory decreased significantly on a weekly basis, and the demand declined slightly. With the approaching New Zealand holidays, there is an expectation of reduced shipments in the future. It is expected that the market will mainly fluctuate within a range [2][3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - Log 2601: Price on December 25th was 765.5, down 1.0 from December 24th, with a decline of -0.13% [2]. - Log 2603: Price on December 25th was 778.0, up 2.0 from December 24th, with an increase of 0.26% [2]. - Log 2605: Price on December 25th was 785.5, up 1.5 from December 24th, with an increase of 0.19% [2]. - Some spot prices remained unchanged, while the price of 4A medium radiata pine in Taicang Port increased by 10 yuan to 730 yuan, with a rise of 1.39% [2]. Import Cost - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate on December 25th was 6.997, down 0.01 from December 24th, with a decline of 0% [2]. - The import theoretical cost on December 25th was 771.33 yuan, down 1.40 from December 24th, with a decline of 0% [2]. Supply - The port throughput in November was 189.2 million cubic meters, down 12.1 million cubic meters from October, with a decline of -6.01% [2]. - The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 49, down 5 from the previous period, with a decline of -9.26% [2]. Inventory - As of December 19th, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 260 million cubic meters, down 12 million cubic meters from the previous week, a decline of -4.41% [2][3]. Demand - As of December 19th, the average daily log outbound volume was 6.32 million cubic meters, down 0.14 million cubic meters from the previous week, a decline of -2% [2][3]. Forecast of Arrival - From December 22nd - 28th, 2025, the number of pre - arriving ships of New Zealand logs at 13 Chinese ports was 9, 6 less than the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 40%. The total arrival volume was about 30.9 million cubic meters, 21.5 million cubic meters less than the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 41% [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current downstream processing plants are making inventory purchases based on rigid demand. With the recent continuous decline in log spot prices, the downstream delivery has improved in the short term. It is expected that the overall spot prices will stabilize in the future, but the terminal market remains sluggish. The sustainability of price support and trading volume need to be further evaluated. In the medium to long term, under the dual pressure of weakening real estate demand and increasing port inventories, the log spot market still faces challenges [5]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended that aggressive investors short against the previous high for single - side trading, pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread for arbitrage, and adopt a wait - and - see approach for options trading [6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - **Price**: The price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiata pine in Rizhao this week is 760 yuan per cubic meter, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.30%. The price of 4 - meter medium - A logs in Taicang is 780 yuan per cubic meter, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.27% [5]. - **Supply**: In April 2025, China imported 5.34 million cubic meters of logs and sawn timber. From January to April, the import volume was 19.245 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 12.0% [5]. - **Demand**: From January to May 2022, the national new housing construction area was 520 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 30.6%. Among them, the new residential construction area was 380 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 31.9%. Last week, the average daily delivery volume of logs at 13 ports was 71,600 cubic meters, remaining unchanged from the previous week [5]. - **Import Cost**: The CFR main price of radiata pine this month is 108 US dollars per JAS cubic meter, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.3% [5]. 3.1.2 Strategies - **Single - side**: The overall spot prices are stable but weak, and the medium - to - long - term fundamentals are also generally loose. Aggressive investors can short against the previous high [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [6]. - **Options**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [6]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 Log Supply - The expected shipment volume of New Zealand logs to China, Japan, South Korea, and India in March 2025 was 2.0025 million cubic meters, an increase of 390,000 cubic meters from the previous month, with a month - on - month increase of 24.17%. The expected number of ships was 66, an increase of 8 from the previous month, with a month - on - month increase of 13.79% [14]. 3.2.2 Log Inventory - In April, the average inventory of national coniferous logs was 3.55 million cubic meters, a decrease of 2,500 cubic meters from the average inventory of 3.5525 million cubic meters in March, a decrease of 0.07%. Among them, the average inventory of radiata pine increased by 30,000 cubic meters, North American timber decreased by 80,000 cubic meters, and spruce decreased by 20,000 cubic meters [17]. 3.2.3 Log Demand - The average daily delivery volume of logs at 13 national ports remained at 71,600 cubic meters, the same as last week, indicating stable market demand but lack of short - term upward momentum. The daily delivery volume in Shandong decreased by 7.80%, while that in Jiangsu increased by 8.12% [23]. - As of May 6, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 58.95%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.15 percentage points. The capital availability rate of non - housing construction projects was 60.47%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.01 percentage points, and that of housing construction projects was 51.38%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.84 percentage points [23]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking 3.3.1 Log Prices - In Shandong, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiata pine logs in Rizhao this week is 760 yuan per cubic meter, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.30% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.32% [30]. - In Jiangsu, the price of 4 - meter medium - A radiata pine logs in Taicang this week is 780 yuan per cubic meter, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.27% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.70% [30]. - In Shandong, the price of 11.8 - meter 20cm + general - grade spruce logs in Rizhao this week is 1060 yuan per cubic meter, remaining unchanged from last week and a year - on - year decrease of 6.19% [30]. 3.3.2 Downstream Timber Prices - The spot price of 3000*40*90 radiata pine timber squares this week is running at XX. The mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market is 1270 yuan per cubic meter, and that in the Jiangsu market is 1280 yuan per cubic meter [33]. - The spot price of 3000*40*90 spruce/white pine timber squares this week is running at XX. The mainstream transaction price in both the Shandong and Jiangsu markets is 1670 yuan per cubic meter [33]. 3.3.3 Import Log Costs - In May 2025, the quoted price range of New Zealand's radiata pine in the outer market is 105 - 110 US dollars per JAS cubic meter, about 7 - 8 US dollars per JAS cubic meter lower than in April [40]. - In April 2025, the outer - market price (CFR) of 11.8 - meter 20 spruce logs is 120 euros per JAS cubic meter, remaining unchanged from the previous month [40].