Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current log market has weak supply and demand, with spot prices at a low level. In the Jiangsu region, due to low inventory, there is a shortage of some specifications of spot goods and price increases. The 03 contract has less inventory pressure due to low inventory and the expectation of reduced later shipments. However, the weak demand situation is difficult to change, and the upward adjustment space is limited. Overall, there is insufficient contradiction, and the upward and downward driving forces are limited. It is expected that the market will mainly fluctuate in the range of 760 - 800. If the price rebounds to the upper limit of the range, short - selling on rallies can be considered [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices: On January 16, the price of log 2601 was 770.0, unchanged from the previous day; log 2603 was 778.5, down 2.0 from the previous day with a decline of - 0.26%; log 2605 was 790.0, unchanged; log 2607 was 801.0, down 0.5 from the previous day with a decline of - 0.06%. The basis of the main contract was - 38.5, up 2.0 from the previous day [1] - Spot prices: The prices of various types of radiation pine and spruce in Rizhao Port and Taicang Port remained unchanged on January 16 compared with the previous day. The CFR price of 4 - meter medium - A radiation pine was 110 US dollars/JAS cubic meter, and the CFR price of 11.8 - meter spruce was 124 euros/JAS cubic meter, both unchanged [1] Cost: Import Cost Calculation - On January 19, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 6.966, up 0.003 from the previous day with a change of 0%. The import theoretical cost was 754.72 yuan, up 0.34 yuan from the previous day with a change of 0% [1] Supply: Monthly - In December, the port freight volume was 204.0 million cubic meters, up 14.8 million cubic meters from November with a growth rate of 7.82%. The number of ships at the port was 55.0, up 6.0 from the previous period with a growth rate of 12.24% [1] Inventory: Main Port Inventory - As of January 9, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs was 269 million cubic meters, up 2 million cubic meters from the previous week. The inventory in Shandong was 196.0 million cubic meters, up 1.0 million cubic meters from the previous week with a growth rate of 0.51% [1][2] Demand - As of January 9, the daily average log出库量 was 5.75 million cubic meters, up 0.1 million cubic meters from the previous week. The demand in Shandong decreased slightly, while that in Jiangsu increased. The daily average log出库量 in Shandong was 2.79 million cubic meters, down 0.1 million cubic meters from the previous week with a decline of - 3%; in Jiangsu, it was 2.35 million cubic meters, up 0.18 million cubic meters from the previous week with a growth rate of 8% [2] Arrival Forecast - From January 12 to January 18, 2026, 15 New Zealand log ships are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, 6 more than the previous week with a week - on - week increase of 67%. The total arrival volume is about 48.6 million cubic meters, 18.1 million cubic meters more than the previous week with a week - on - week increase of 59% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The current log market has weak supply and demand, with spot prices at a low level. In the Jiangsu region, due to low inventory, there is a shortage of some specifications of spot goods, leading to price increases. The 03 contract has less inventory pressure due to low inventory and the expectation of a decrease in later shipments. However, the weak demand situation is difficult to change, and the upside potential is limited. Overall, there is insufficient contradiction and limited upward and downward drivers. It is expected that the futures market will mainly fluctuate in the range of 760 - 800. If the price rebounds to the high end of the range, short - selling can be considered [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices: The prices of log contracts such as log2601, log2603, log2605, and log2607 showed small increases or remained unchanged on January 15 compared to January 14, with the largest increase of 0.19% for log2607. The main contract basis decreased by 1.0 [1] - Spot prices: The prices of many types of logs in ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained stable, except for the 4A small and medium - sized radiata pine in Taicang Port, which increased by 1.47% and 1.35% respectively. The ex - port quotes for radiata pine 4 - meter medium A and spruce 11.8 meters remained unchanged [1] 3.2 Cost: Import Cost Calculation - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate decreased slightly from 6.967 on January 15 to 6.963 on January 16, and the import theoretical cost decreased by 0.49 yuan to 754.32 yuan [1] 3.3 Supply: Monthly - Port inventory increased by 14.8 million cubic meters to 204.0 million cubic meters in December compared to November, a growth rate of 7.82%. The number of ships in the port increased by 6 to 55, a growth rate of 12.24% [1] 3.4 Inventory: Main Port Inventory (Weekly) - As of January 9, the total inventory of coniferous logs in China was 269 million cubic meters, an increase of 2 million cubic meters compared to January 2, with a growth rate of 0.75%. The inventory in Shandong was 196 million cubic meters, an increase of 1 million cubic meters compared to January 2, with a growth rate of 0.51% [1] 3.5 Demand - As of January 9, the daily average log出库 volume in China was 5.75 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.1 million cubic meters compared to the previous week. The daily average log出库 volume in Shandong decreased by 0.1 million cubic meters to 2.79 million cubic meters, a decrease of 3%, while that in Jiangsu increased by 0.18 million cubic meters to 2.35 million cubic meters, an increase of 8% [2] 3.6 Forecast of Arrival of New Logs - From January 12 - January 18, 2026, 15 New Zealand log ships are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, an increase of 6 compared to the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 67%. The total arrival volume is about 48.6 million cubic meters, an increase of 18.1 million cubic meters compared to the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 59% [2]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the report's industry investment rating. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The current log market has weak supply and demand, with spot prices at a low level. In the Jiangsu region, due to low inventory, some specifications of spot goods are in short supply and prices have increased. The 03 contract has less inventory pressure due to low inventory and the expected decrease in later shipments. However, the demand remains weak, and the upward adjustment space is limited. Overall, there are insufficient contradictions, and the upward and downward driving forces are limited. It is expected that the market will mainly fluctuate within a range [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures and Spot Prices - On January 14, 2026, the prices of log futures contracts showed different trends. The log 2603 contract closed at 779.5 yuan/cubic meter, up 5 yuan/cubic meter or 0.65% compared to the previous day; the log 2605 contract closed at 789.0 yuan/cubic meter, up 3 yuan/cubic meter or 0.38%; the log 2607 contract closed at 800.0 yuan/cubic meter, up 2 yuan/cubic meter or 0.25%. The log 2601 contract remained unchanged at 770.0 yuan/cubic meter. The basis of the main contract was -39.5, down 5 from the previous day [1]. - Among the spot prices, the prices of most types of logs in Rizhao Port and Taicang Port remained unchanged, except for the 4A small radiata pine in Taicang Port, which increased by 10 yuan/cubic meter to 680 yuan/cubic meter, with a growth rate of 1.49%. The CFR prices of radiata pine 4 - meter medium A and spruce 11.8 - meter remained unchanged at 110 US dollars/JAS cubic meter and 124 euros/JAS cubic meter respectively [1]. 2. Cost: Import Cost Calculation - On January 15, 2026, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 6.970, down 0.004 from the previous day, with a change rate of 0%. The import theoretical cost was 755.07 yuan, down 0.48 yuan from the previous day, with a change rate of 0% [1]. 3. Supply: Monthly - As of December 31, the port back - haul volume was 191.4 ten thousand cubic meters, up 2.2 ten thousand cubic meters or 1.16% from November 30. The number of ships in the rock port was 52.0, up 3.0 or 6.12% from the previous period [1]. 4. Inventory: Main Port Inventory (Weekly) - As of January 9, the domestic coniferous log total inventory was 269 ten thousand cubic meters, an increase of 2 ten thousand cubic meters compared to January 2, with a growth rate of 0.75%. In Shandong, the inventory was 196.00 ten thousand cubic meters, an increase of 1.0 ten thousand cubic meters or 0.51% [1]. 5. Demand: Daily Average Out - bound Volume (Weekly) - As of January 9, the daily average out - bound volume of logs in China was 5.75 ten thousand cubic meters, an increase of 0.1 ten thousand cubic meters compared to the previous week, with a growth rate of 2%. In Shandong, it was 2.79 ten thousand cubic meters, a decrease of 0.10 ten thousand cubic meters or 3%. In Jiangsu, it was 2.35 ten thousand cubic meters, an increase of 0.18 ten thousand cubic meters or 8% [2]. 6. Forecast of Arrival Ships - From January 12 - 18, 2026, 15 New Zealand log ships are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, an increase of 6 ships compared to the previous week, with a week - on - week increase of 67%. The total arrival volume is about 48.6 ten thousand cubic meters, an increase of 18.1 ten thousand cubic meters compared to the previous week, with a week - on - week increase of 59% [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall demand for logs is showing a contraction trend, with regional differentiation. The southern market may maintain a steady - to - rising price due to winter stockpiling, while the northern market is weakening. In the long - term, the log market is expected to oscillate at a low level. In the short - term, the 2603 contract is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation, and in the medium - term, prices may weaken around the Spring Festival in 2026 [3][4][5] 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Log Industry Data 3.1.1 Spot and Futures - Spot: The price of 3.9 - meter medium A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port remained stable at 740 yuan/cubic meter compared to the previous period, and the price of 4 - meter medium A radiata pine logs at Taicang Port increased. The price of radiata pine logs in Jiangsu rose due to supply contraction and demand support. - Futures: As of January 13, the log main contract 2603 closed at 774.5 yuan/cubic meter, showing a strong oscillation. In early January 2026, the ocean freight for imported coniferous log bulk carriers (New Zealand → China) was 25 US dollars/JAS cubic meter, a 3.85% decrease compared to late December 2025 [2] 3.1.2 Supply - From January 3 - 9, 2026, a total of 9 ships with 350,000 cubic meters of logs departed from New Zealand ports, a decrease of 1 ship and 10,000 cubic meters compared to the previous period. Among them, 8 ships with 300,000 cubic meters were directly sent to China, an increase of 2 ships and 80,000 cubic meters. - Expected arrival volume at 13 ports this week (January 12 - 18, 2026): 13 New Zealand log ships are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, an 18% increase compared to last week, with a total arrival volume of about 411,000 cubic meters, an 8% increase. - Actual arrival volume at 13 ports last week (January 5 - 11, 2026): 11 New Zealand log ships were expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, a 15% decrease compared to the previous week, with a total arrival volume of about 380,000 cubic meters, a 12% decrease. - In November 2025, the total import volume of Chinese coniferous logs was about 2.2295 million cubic meters, a 16.86% month - on - month increase and a 2.58% year - on - year increase. From January to November 2025, the total import volume was about 22.1533 million cubic meters, a 7.07% year - on - year decrease [2] 3.1.3 Inventory - As of January 13, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.69 million cubic meters, an increase of 20,000 cubic meters compared to last week. The radiata pine inventory was 2.29 million cubic meters, an increase of 10,000 cubic meters; the North American timber inventory was 120,000 cubic meters, an increase of 20,000 cubic meters; the spruce/fir inventory was 130,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters. - Overall, downstream demand is weak and stable, the arrival volume pressure is rising, and high arrival volumes are continuously pressuring port log inventory and spot prices. Inventory decreased in December due to reduced previous arrivals, but has started to accumulate since January [3] 3.1.4 Demand - From January 5 - 11, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 57,500 cubic meters, a 1.77% increase compared to last week. Among them, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 27,900 cubic meters, a 3.46% decrease; the average daily outbound volume at Jiangsu ports was 23,500 cubic meters, an 8.29% increase. - Downstream demand is suppressed by seasonal factors. The southern Yangtze River Delta region may maintain a steady - to - rising price due to winter stockpiling and low arrival pressure, but the increase is limited. The northern market is in the final stage before the holiday, with weakening demand and a possible weakening price trend [3] 3.1.5 Recent News and Outlook - China's import of radiata pine shows a trend of resource centralization, with an increasing proportion from New Zealand. However, the risk of over - reliance on a single source is accumulating. - Anti - involution policies have an indirect boost in the off - season. The downstream products of logs are also affected by the construction and manufacturing industries, and there is a high correlation between construction wood and coke. - The Sino - US Geneva Joint Statement in May may boost wood product exports, but the current terminal market is sluggish. The suspension of 24% reciprocal tariffs and counter - tariffs for 90 days in July has been extended, and there are still uncertainties in the export cost of Chinese wood products. - The EU Commission has imposed higher anti - dumping duties on hardwood plywood imported from China, and Mexico has made an affirmative preliminary anti - dumping ruling on cardboard from China. - China has lifted the suspension of importing US logs, but the short - term arrival and clearance volume will be limited. - New Zealand's log supply to China is expected to slow down before the Chinese Spring Festival, and there may be a slight increase in the new round of outer - market quotes [4] 3.1.6 Strategies and Suggestions - In summer from July to early September, the futures market rebounded significantly, but the market's long - term expectation for real estate demand was cautious, resulting in a near - strong and far - weak differentiation trend. - In the second half of the year, the near - and far - month contracts showed significant differentiation. The 2511 contract fell rapidly after the peak season, and the 2601 contract oscillated strongly at first and then fell. - In the short - term, the 2601 contract is oscillating at a low level, and the 2603 contract is relatively stronger. The outer - market quote for New Zealand radiata pine logs in January 2026 has slightly decreased, and the overall demand is expected to contract in the future. - In the medium - term, around the Spring Festival in 2026, the log price may weaken. Whether the main 2603 contract can improve depends on the real estate industry's support policies and the post - Spring Festival cost and demand recovery [5] 3.2 Log Import Sources - Radiata pine is mainly imported from New Zealand, and fir and spruce are mainly imported from Europe [14] 3.3 Log Import Volume - The data shows the monthly port shipping volume, departure ship number, and total import volume of New Zealand logs from 2023 - 2025, as well as the monthly import volume of different tree species of logs [16][18] 3.4 Log Inventory - The data presents the inventory of logs at different ports and of different varieties in China, including the inventory of coniferous logs, radiata pine, North American timber, and spruce [21] 3.5 Log Outbound Volume - The data shows the average daily outbound volume of logs at ports from 2023 - 2026, as well as the average daily outbound volume at Shandong and Jiangsu ports [24][27] 3.6 Log Demand - Related Data - The data includes the weekly outbound volume of cement, the weekly shipping volume of concrete, the actual in - place funds of real - estate development enterprises, and the correlation between building materials products [30][33]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information found Group 2: Core View of the Report - The current log market is characterized by weak supply and demand, with spot prices at a low level. The 03 contract has less inventory pressure due to low inventory and expected reduction in future shipments, but the weak demand limits the upside potential. Overall, there is insufficient contradiction and limited upward and downward drivers, so the market is expected to fluctuate within a range [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On January 13th, the prices of log 2601, log 2603, log 2605, and log 2607 were 770.0, 774.5, 786.0, and 798.0 respectively. The price of log 2603 increased by 1.5 (0.19%), while log 2605 decreased by -0.5 (-0.06%) and log 2607 decreased by -1.5 (-0.19%) compared to January 12th. The main contract basis was -34.5, a decrease of 1.5 from the previous day [1] - Spot prices of various types of logs in Rizhao Port and Taicang Port remained unchanged on January 13th compared to the previous day. The CFR prices of 4 - meter medium A radiata pine and 11.8 - meter spruce in the outer market also remained unchanged on January 16th [1] Cost: Import Cost Calculation - On January 14th, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 6.974, and the import theoretical cost was 755.52 yuan, with a slight increase of 0.28 yuan compared to January 13th [1] Supply: Monthly - In November, the port freight volume was 191.4 million cubic meters, a 1.16% increase compared to October. The number of ships at the port was 52.0, a 6.12% increase compared to the previous period [1] Inventory: Main Port Inventory - As of January 9th, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs was 269 million cubic meters, an increase of 2 million cubic meters compared to January 2nd. In Shandong, the inventory was 196 million cubic meters, an increase of 1 million cubic meters [1] Demand - As of January 9th, the daily average log出库量 was 5.75 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.1 million cubic meters compared to the previous week. In Shandong, it decreased by 0.1 million cubic meters (-3%), while in Jiangsu, it increased by 0.18 million cubic meters (8%) [2] Forecast of Arrival - From January 12th - 18th, 2026, 15 New Zealand log ships are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, an increase of 6 ships (67% week - on - week). The total arrival volume is about 48.6 million cubic meters, an increase of 18.1 million cubic meters (59% week - on - week) [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The current log market has weak supply and demand, with low spot prices. The 03 contract has less inventory pressure due to low inventory and expected reduction in later shipments. However, the weak demand limits the upward adjustment space. Overall, there is insufficient contradiction, and the upward and downward drivers are limited. It is expected that the market will mainly fluctuate within a range [2]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: On January 12, 2026, the price of log 2601 was 770, up 28 from January 9, with a rise of 3.77%; log 2603 was 773, down 1.5, a decline of -0.19%; log 2605 was 786.5, down 0.5, a decline of -0.06%; log 2607 was 799.5, up 1.5, a rise of 0.19%. The main contract basis was -33, up 1.5 [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The prices of most spot logs remained stable, except for the 4A medium radiata pine in Taicang Port, which increased by 10 to 740, with a rise of 1.37%. The latest round of foreign market quotes for radiata pine 4 - meter medium A was 110 US dollars/JAS cubic meter [1]. Cost: Import Cost Calculation On January 13, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 6.968, with no change. The import theoretical cost, calculated at a 15% over - length, was 754.94 yuan, down 0.15 from January 12, a decline of 0% [1]. Supply - **Monthly Supply**: In November, the port freight volume was 191.4 (ten thousand/cubic meters), up 2.2 from October, with a rise of 1.16%. The number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 52, up 3 from the previous period, a rise of 6.12% [1]. - **Expected Arrivals**: From January 12 - 18, 2026, 15 New Zealand log ships are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, an increase of 6 from last week, a week - on - week increase of 67%; the arrival volume is about 48.6 (ten thousand/cubic meters), an increase of 18.1 from last week, a week - on - week increase of 59% [2]. Inventory As of January 9, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs was 269 (ten thousand/cubic meters), an increase of 2 from last week. The inventory in Shandong was 196 (ten thousand/cubic meters), up 1, a rise of 0.51% [1][2]. Demand As of January 9, the average daily log出库 volume was 5.75 (ten thousand/cubic meters), an increase of 0.1 from the previous week. The demand in Shandong decreased by 0.1 to 2.79 (ten thousand/cubic meters), a decline of - 3%, while the demand in Jiangsu increased by 0.18 to 2.35 (ten thousand/cubic meters), a rise of 8% [1][2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - From December 22 - 28, 2025, 9 New Zealand log ships are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, 6 fewer than last week, a 40% week - on - week decrease; the arrival volume is about 30.9 million cubic meters, 21.5 million cubic meters less than last week, a 41% week - on - week decrease [3] - Recently, the log futures price has recovered to near the warehouse receipt cost. The latest data shows a significant inventory reduction. With the approaching New Zealand holidays, there is an expectation of reduced shipments. Demand remains stable but weak. The futures price is expected to fluctuate within a range [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On December 25, the prices of log futures contracts 2601, 2603, and 2605 were 765.5, 778.0, and 785.5 respectively, with changes of - 1.0, + 2.0, and + 1.5 compared to December 24, and the price changes were - 0.13%, 0.26%, and 0.19% respectively [2] - The prices of most spot log varieties remained unchanged on December 25, except for the 4A medium - sized radiata pine in Taicang Port, which increased by 10 yuan to 730 yuan, with a 1.39% increase [2] - The external market quotes for radiata pine 4 - meter medium A and spruce 11.8 - meter remained unchanged on December 26 compared to December 19 [2] Cost: Import Cost Calculation - On December 25, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 6.997 yuan, down 0.01 yuan from December 24, and the import theoretical cost was 771.33 yuan, down 1.40 yuan from December 24 [2] Supply: Monthly - In November, the port freight volume was 189.2 million cubic meters, a 6.01% decrease from October; the number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 49, a 9.26% decrease from the previous period [2] Inventory: Main Port Inventory (Weekly) - As of December 19, the log inventory in Chinese ports was 260 million cubic meters, a 4.41% decrease from December 12; the inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu also decreased [2][3] Demand: Daily Average Outbound Volume (Weekly) - As of December 19, the daily average outbound volume of logs in China was 6.32 million cubic meters, a 2% decrease from December 12; the daily average outbound volume in Shandong decreased by 3%, while that in Jiangsu increased by 1% [3]

Group 1: Report Summary - Report title: Log Weekly Report - Report date: December 7, 2025 - Analyst: Zhang Guangshuo - Company: Guotai Junan Futures [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The spot prices of mainstream log varieties in Shandong and Jiangsu markets remained stable compared to last week. The European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market were still in short supply. - The supply of logs from New Zealand is expected to increase in December, with 29 ships expected to arrive in that month. - The demand for logs in ports decreased, with the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port and Taicang Port decreasing week-on-week. The total inventory of the four major ports increased by 78,600 cubic meters compared to the previous week. - The log futures market continued its weak and volatile trend, with the fundamentals maintaining a weak supply-demand pattern. The monthly spread marginally changed this week. [4][5][14][20] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Supply - As of November 30, 41 ships departed from New Zealand in November, with 34 bound for the Chinese mainland and 7 for Taiwan, China, and South Korea for unloading. Among them, about 12 ships were expected to arrive in November and 29 in December. The expected arrival volume in November was 1.41 million cubic meters. [5][8] 2. Demand and Inventory - As of the week of November 28, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 10,200 cubic meters (a week-on-week decrease of 13,000 cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 12,100 cubic meters (a week-on-week decrease of 900 cubic meters). - In terms of port inventory, the inventory of Lanshan Port was about 1.3688 million cubic meters (a week-on-week increase of 6,000 cubic meters), Taicang Port was about 452,400 cubic meters (a week-on-week increase of 50,800 cubic meters), Xinminzhou was about 274,100 cubic meters (a week-on-week increase of 35,400 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port was about 160,200 cubic meters (a week-on-week decrease of 13,600 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.2555 million cubic meters, a week-on-week increase of 78,600 cubic meters. [6][14] 3. Market Trends - As of December 5, the closing price of the main contract LG2511 was 765.5 yuan per cubic meter, a 0.3% increase from last week. The futures market continued its weak and volatile trend this week, with the fundamentals maintaining a weak supply-demand pattern. The monthly spread marginally changed this week, with the 01 - 03 monthly spread at -13 yuan per cubic meter, the 01 - 05 monthly spread at -24.5 yuan per cubic meter, and the 03 - 05 monthly spread at -11.5 yuan per cubic meter. [20] 4. Other - As of the week of December 7, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2,814.00 points, a 254-point (9.9%) increase from last week. Its related sub-index, the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI), was 841 points, a 1.7% increase from last week. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1,397.63 points, a 0.4% decrease from last week. - In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index weakened, with the US dollar to RMB exchange rate at 7.071, a 0.11% week-on-week decrease, and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate decreasing by 0.8% to 1.73. [6][56]

Report Overview - The report is a weekly log report from Guotai Junan Futures, dated December 7, 2025, focusing on the log market, including supply, demand, inventory, price trends, and other influencing factors [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The log market's fundamentals maintain a weak supply - demand pattern, with the futures market showing weak and volatile trends, and spot prices remaining stable [20] Summary by Directory 1. Supply - As of November 30, 41 ships departed from New Zealand in November, with 34 going to mainland China and 7 to Taiwan, China, and South Korea for unloading. It is expected that 12 ships will arrive in November and 29 in December, with an estimated arrival volume of 1.41 million cubic meters in November [5][8] 2. Demand and Inventory - As of the week of November 28, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 10,200 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 13,000 cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 12,100 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 900 cubic meters). In terms of port inventory, Lanshan Port had about 1.3688 million cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 6,000 cubic meters), Taicang Port had about 452,400 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 50,800 cubic meters), Xinminzhou had about 274,100 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 35,400 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port had about 160,200 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 13,600 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.2555 million cubic meters, an increase of 78,600 cubic meters compared to the previous week [6][14] 3. Market Trends - As of December 5, the closing price of the main contract LG2511 was 765.5 yuan per cubic meter, a 0.3% increase from the previous week. The futures market continued its weak and volatile trend, and the monthly spread changed little this week. The 01 - 03 monthly spread was - 13 yuan per cubic meter, the 01 - 05 monthly spread was - 24.5 yuan per cubic meter, and the 03 - 05 monthly spread was - 11.5 yuan per cubic meter [20] 4. Price and Spread - **Spot Price**: For the mainstream deliverable 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine, the Shandong market quoted 750 yuan per cubic meter, and the Jiangsu market quoted 740 yuan per cubic meter, both remaining unchanged from the previous week. The prices of other specifications and tree species also remained stable [4][24] - **Regional Spread**: The report analyzed the price spreads of different tree species and specifications between Shandong and Jiangsu regions, including 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine, 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine, etc. [26][29] - **Tree Species and Specification Spread**: It analyzed the price spreads between different specifications of radiata pine, such as the spread between 3.9 - meter 30 + and 40 + radiata pine, and the spread between 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine and 5.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine [41][43] 5. Other - As of the week of December 7, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2,814.00 points, a 254 - point (9.9%) increase from the previous week. The Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI) was 841 points, a 1.7% increase from the previous week. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1,397.63 points, a 0.4% decrease from the previous week. In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index weakened, with the US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate at 7.071, a 0.11% week - on - week decrease, and the US dollar - to - New Zealand dollar exchange rate dropping 0.8% to 1.73 [56]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the supply, demand, cost, profit, price, and spread of logs. It indicates that the supply - side pressure is decreasing, the demand remains weak with the approaching off - season and wood blue - stain period. The price is under pressure, and the market is expected to maintain a weak supply - demand balance in the future [6][9][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Part 1: Log Overview - **Supply - side**: In September 2025, the number of arriving ships was 16, and the arrival volume was 53.1 million cubic meters. The import volume of coniferous logs was about 200.13 million cubic meters, a 16.01% month - on - month increase. It is expected that the subsequent arrival will remain stable, and the supply - side pressure will decrease [7]. - **Demand and Inventory - side**: The weekly shipment volume and apparent demand show no significant improvement. The demand is weak, and the inventory is expected to fluctuate and adjust due to the weak demand despite the decrease in arrivals this week [9]. - **Price and Spread**: The outer - market quotation has a slight adjustment, the spot price is under pressure, and the wood - block price is stable. The spread is relatively stable, and the basis has certain support [11][13]. - **Cost and Profit**: The import cost of logs is expected to decline, and the import profit is decreasing [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The spot market price is expected to be under pressure. The fundamentals of the futures market are weakly oscillating, and it is expected to be under pressure in the short term [17]. 3.2 Part 2: Log Balance Sheet The report presents the weekly balance sheet of logs from June 6, 2025, to November 7, 2025, including arrival numbers, arrival volumes, daily shipment volumes, apparent demand, inventory by region and species, and the supply - demand difference [19]. 3.3 Part 3: Log Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply - side**: It includes the shipment volume of New Zealand logs, log imports, and imports by species [25][27][30]. - **Demand - side**: It involves the daily shipment volume of logs, the real - estate market, and downstream analysis such as wood - block price, profit, and downstream substitutes [34][36][41]. - **Inventory - side**: It includes inventory summaries, inventory by species, and inventory by region [58][60][66]. 3.4 Part 4: Cost and Profit - **Log Import Cost and Profit**: Analyzes the import cost and profit of logs [72]. - **Log Delivery Profit**: Analyzes the delivery profit of logs [77]. 3.5 Part 5: Log Price and Spread Analysis - **Log Outer - market Quotation**: Analyzes the outer - market quotation of logs [82]. - **Seasonality of Radiation Pine and Spruce Prices**: Presents the seasonal price trends of radiation pine and spruce [85]. - **Seasonality of Radiation Pine and Spruce Spreads**: Analyzes the seasonal spread trends of radiation pine and spruce [98]. - **Basis between Radiation Pine and LG**: Analyzes the basis between radiation pine and LG [104]. - **Seasonal Chart and Inter - month Spread of LG Main Contracts**: Presents the seasonal chart and inter - month spread of LG main contracts [106].