国泰君安期货·黑色与建材 原木周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·张广硕 期货从业资格号：Z0020198 日期：2025年7月6日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 综述 01 供应 02 需求及库存 03 行情走势 04 其他 05 市场回顾 新西兰船期数据 国内主港库存 国内主港日均出货量 行情走势 现货价格行情 主流材种区域价差 树种、规格间价差 海运费 汇率 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 综述 1 综述 现货价格走势： 对于主流交割品3.9米30+辐射松，山东市场报价 755 元/方，较上周 持平，江苏市场报价 765 元/方，较上周 持平，目前两地区价差为 -10。山东地区3.9米40+辐射松报价 850 元/方，较上 周 增加 40 元/方；山东地区5.9米30+辐射松报价 775 元/方，较上周 持平。欧洲材云杉、冷杉 在江苏市场上的交易量较少，仍处于缺货状态。 截止到6月29日，6月从新西兰出发的船只总共有38条，其中有30条去往中国大 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The supply pressure of logs remained in early April. It is expected that the arrival of logs will improve marginally from the middle of April. If the inventory reduction intensifies later and considering the current low price level, there may be short - term rebound space. However, the decline in spot prices is dragging down the futures market, and the entry into the off - season for shipments in May will suppress the rebound. The futures price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 810 - 850 yuan. Also, the tariff upgrade has led to weak macro - sentiment and increased market uncertainty [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: On April 10, compared with April 9, the prices of log futures contracts 2507, 2509, and 2511 all increased, with increases of 6.0 yuan (0.73%), 5.5 yuan (0.66%), and 8.0 yuan (0.95%) respectively. The 7 - 9, 9 - 11, and 7 - 11 spreads and the 07, 09, 11 contract basis all changed [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of various types of logs in ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged on April 10 compared with April 9. The CFR price of radiata pine 4 - meter medium A decreased by 1 US dollar/JAS cubic meter (- 0.87%), while the CFR price of spruce 11.8 - meter remained unchanged [2]. - **Import Cost**: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate decreased from 7.387 to 7.356, and the import theoretical cost decreased by 10.49 yuan (- 1%) to 823.82 yuan [2]. Supply - **Monthly Supply**: From December 31 to February 28, the port shipping volume increased by 66.8 million cubic meters (50.98%) to 197.9 million cubic meters, and the number of ships at the port increased by 9 (18.37%) to 58 [2]. - **Inventory**: As of April 4, the total inventory of main ports in China was 359 million cubic meters, a decrease of 1 million cubic meters (- 0.28%) compared with March 28. In Shandong, it increased by 9.0 million cubic meters (4.74%), while in Jiangsu, it decreased by 7.8 million cubic meters (- 6.06%) [2][3]. Demand - **Daily Average Out - bound Volume**: As of April 4, the daily average out - bound volume of logs in China was 7.16 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.46 million cubic meters (7%) compared with March 28. In Shandong, it increased by 0.93 million cubic meters (28%), while in Jiangsu, it decreased by 0.42 million cubic meters (- 15%) [3].