Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core View - The log futures fluctuated yesterday, with the main contract LG2603 closing at 774 yuan per cubic meter, a week - on - week increase of 1.5 yuan per cubic meter. The spot price of the main benchmark delivery product remained unchanged, and the latest round of FOB quotes decreased by 2 US dollars. Last week, inventory started to accumulate. As of January 2nd, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.67 million cubic meters, an increase of 130,000 cubic meters from the previous week. Demand continued to decline slightly. As of January 2nd, the daily average log out - bound volume was 56,500 cubic meters, a decrease of 18,000 cubic meters from the previous week. From December 29, 2025, to January 5, 2026, 15 vessels of New Zealand coniferous logs were expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, an increase of 6 vessels and a week - on - week increase of 67%; the total arrival volume was 510,500 cubic meters, an increase of 204,500 cubic meters and a week - on - week increase of 66.8%. The 01 contract continued to be deeply discounted for delivery, and the buyer's willingness to take delivery remained poor. Currently, the log futures price fluctuates little. With low inventory and an expected decrease in later shipments, the inventory pressure is small. However, the weak demand limits the upward adjustment space. Overall, the contradictions are insufficient, and the upward and downward driving forces are limited. The futures price is expected to fluctuate within a range [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Categories Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: On January 6th, the price of log 2601 was 767.5, up 14.0 (1.86%) from January 5th; log 2603 was 774.0, up 1.5 (0.19%); log 2605 and log 2607 remained unchanged at 785.0 and 797.0 respectively. The main contract basis was - 34.0, down 1.5 from January 5th [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The prices of various types of logs at ports such as Rizhao Port and Taicang Port remained unchanged on January 6th compared to January 5th [1]. - **External Quotes**: The CFR price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine was 110 US dollars per JAS cubic meter on January 9th, down 2 US dollars (- 1.79%) from January 2nd; the CFR price of 11.8 - meter spruce remained unchanged at 124 euros per JAS cubic meter [1]. Cost: Import Cost Calculation - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate remained unchanged at 6.976 on January 6th compared to January 2nd. The import theoretical cost was 755.77 yuan on January 6th, down 13.31 yuan (- 2%) from January 2nd [1]. Supply: Monthly - The port freight volume was 1.914 million cubic meters on November 30th, an increase of 22,000 cubic meters (1.16%) from October 31st. The number of departing vessels from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 52.0 on a certain date, an increase of 3.0 (6.12%) [1]. Inventory: Main Port Inventory - As of January 2nd, China's total coniferous log inventory was 2.67 million cubic meters, an increase of 130,000 cubic meters (5.12%) compared to December 26th. Shandong's inventory was 1.95 million cubic meters, an increase of 98,000 cubic meters (5.29%) [1]. Demand - As of January 2nd, the daily average log out - bound volume in China was 56,500 cubic meters, a decrease of 18,000 cubic meters (- 3%) compared to December 26th. In Shandong, it was 28,900 cubic meters, an increase of 1,000 cubic meters (4%); in Jiangsu, it was 21,700 cubic meters, a decrease of 2,700 cubic meters (- 11%) [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information regarding the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot price of mainstream delivery product 3.9 - meter 30+ radiata pine remained flat in Shandong and Jiangsu markets compared to last week, while the price of 3.9 - meter 40+ radiata pine in Shandong increased by 40 yuan/cubic meter. European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market were still in short supply [4]. - As of June 29, 38 ships departed from New Zealand in June, with 30 bound for the Chinese mainland and 8 for Taiwan, China and South Korea. It is estimated that 10 ships will arrive in June and 28 in July, with an expected arrival volume of 1.51 million cubic meters in June [5][8]. - As of the week of June 27, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 2.41 million cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 0.29 million cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 1.18 million cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 0.17 million cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.2683 million cubic meters, with an increase of 0.0366 million cubic meters compared to the previous week [6][12]. - As of July 4, the closing price of the main contract LG2509 was 795 yuan/cubic meter, a 0.5% increase from last week. The market showed a strong and volatile trend this week, while the fundamental supply - demand situation remained weak. The monthly spreads tended to widen [15]. 3. Section - by - Section Summaries Overview - The spot price of 3.9 - meter 30+ radiata pine in Shandong and Jiangsu markets remained unchanged, while the price of 3.9 - meter 40+ radiata pine in Shandong increased by 40 yuan/cubic meter. European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market were in short supply [4]. Supply - As of June 29, 38 ships departed from New Zealand in June, with 30 going to the Chinese mainland and 8 to Taiwan, China and South Korea. It is estimated that 10 ships will arrive in June and 28 in July, with an expected arrival volume of 1.51 million cubic meters in June. Detailed ship information including departure time, load, current port, next port, and estimated arrival time is provided [5][8]. Demand and Inventory - As of the week of June 27, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 2.41 million cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 0.29 million cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 1.18 million cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 0.17 million cubic meters). - In terms of port inventory, Lanshan Port had about 1.1438 million cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 0.009 million cubic meters), Taicang Port about 0.4969 million cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 0.0224 million cubic meters), Xinminzhou about 0.4468 million cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 0.0267 million cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port about 0.1808 million cubic meters (week - on - week decrease of 0.0215 million cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.2683 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.0366 million cubic meters compared to the previous week [6][12]. Market Trends - As of July 4, the closing price of the main contract LG2509 was 795 yuan/cubic meter, a 0.5% increase from last week. The market showed a strong and volatile trend this week, while the fundamental supply - demand situation remained weak. The 07 - 09 monthly spread was 36 yuan/cubic meter, the 07 - 11 monthly spread was 43 yuan/cubic meter, and the 09 - 11 monthly spread was 7 yuan/cubic meter [15]. Price and Spread - **Spot Price**: The report provides detailed spot price data of various tree species and specifications in Shandong and Jiangsu markets, including radiata pine and spruce, and analyzes their price changes compared to last week and four weeks ago [19][21]. - **Regional Spread**: Charts show the price spreads of mainstream timber species between Shandong and Jiangsu, such as 3.9 - meter 30+ radiata pine, 3.9 - meter 40+ radiata pine, etc. [22][23]. - **Species and Specification Spread**: Charts present the price spreads between different species and specifications, like the spread between 3.9 - meter 30+ radiata pine and 40+ radiata pine, and between 3.9 - meter 30+ radiata pine and 5.9 - meter 40+ radiata pine [37][39]. Other - As of the week of July 4, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1436 points, a decrease of 85 points (-5.6%) from the previous week. The Handysize Bulk Carrier Index (BHSI) was 633 points, a 0.5% decrease from last week. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1763 points, a 5.3% decrease from last week. - In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index was under continuous pressure. The US dollar - Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.165, a 0.1% week - on - week decrease, and the US dollar - New Zealand dollar exchange rate slightly decreased by 0.1% to 1.65 [51][52].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The supply pressure of logs remained in early April. It is expected that the arrival of logs will improve marginally from the middle of April. If the inventory reduction intensifies later and considering the current low price level, there may be short - term rebound space. However, the decline in spot prices is dragging down the futures market, and the entry into the off - season for shipments in May will suppress the rebound. The futures price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 810 - 850 yuan. Also, the tariff upgrade has led to weak macro - sentiment and increased market uncertainty [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: On April 10, compared with April 9, the prices of log futures contracts 2507, 2509, and 2511 all increased, with increases of 6.0 yuan (0.73%), 5.5 yuan (0.66%), and 8.0 yuan (0.95%) respectively. The 7 - 9, 9 - 11, and 7 - 11 spreads and the 07, 09, 11 contract basis all changed [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of various types of logs in ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged on April 10 compared with April 9. The CFR price of radiata pine 4 - meter medium A decreased by 1 US dollar/JAS cubic meter (- 0.87%), while the CFR price of spruce 11.8 - meter remained unchanged [2]. - **Import Cost**: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate decreased from 7.387 to 7.356, and the import theoretical cost decreased by 10.49 yuan (- 1%) to 823.82 yuan [2]. Supply - **Monthly Supply**: From December 31 to February 28, the port shipping volume increased by 66.8 million cubic meters (50.98%) to 197.9 million cubic meters, and the number of ships at the port increased by 9 (18.37%) to 58 [2]. - **Inventory**: As of April 4, the total inventory of main ports in China was 359 million cubic meters, a decrease of 1 million cubic meters (- 0.28%) compared with March 28. In Shandong, it increased by 9.0 million cubic meters (4.74%), while in Jiangsu, it decreased by 7.8 million cubic meters (- 6.06%) [2][3]. Demand - **Daily Average Out - bound Volume**: As of April 4, the daily average out - bound volume of logs in China was 7.16 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.46 million cubic meters (7%) compared with March 28. In Shandong, it increased by 0.93 million cubic meters (28%), while in Jiangsu, it decreased by 0.42 million cubic meters (- 15%) [3].