原油价差反转

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原油:修复性反弹,关注各类价差反转
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-02 01:49
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report focuses on the crude oil market's restorative rebound and the potential reversals in various spreads. It analyzes the price dynamics, supply - demand fundamentals, and key events across different regions in the oil and refined product markets [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil Market Price and Dynamics - In Europe, Mediterranean Naphtha is at 463.715€ /mt, Dated Brent is at 67.93$/b (-0.54$), with OPEC +减产 execution rate at 117% and increased September loading plans after North Sea maintenance. In Asia, Dubai (Oct) is at 70.50$/b (+0.80$) due to strong Chinese strategic reserve demand and high Indian refinery throughput, and ESPO is at 64.02$/b (+0.64$). In America, WTI USGC is at 65.91$/b (-0.55$) with eased export congestion and low Cushing inventory, and Mars is at 64.20$/b (+0.24$) affected by hurricane and pipeline maintenance [2]. 3.2 Refined Oil Product Market Price and Dynamics - For gasoline, in Europe, FOB AR 92RON is at 725.50$/mt (unchanged), in Asia, Singapore 92RON is at 79.40$/b (+1.13$), and in America, NYH CBOB is at 217.89¢/gal (-2.13¢). For diesel, European 10ppm ULSD is at 682.25$/mt (+0.75$), Asian 10ppm Gasoil is at 86.33$/b (+0.58$), and American USGC ULSD is at 221.23¢/gal (+4.11¢). For aviation fuel, European Jet A - 1 is at 690.00$/mt (+1.75$), Asian Singapore Jet is at 84.50$/b (+0.46$), and American USGC Jet is at 205.70¢/gal (-4.98¢). For fuel oil, European 3.5% FO is at 387.75$/mt (+4.25$), Asian 380CST is at 387.90$/mt (+8.99$), and American USGC HSFO is at 59.93$/b (-0.21$) [4]. 3.3 Cross - Regional Comparison - In terms of supply, Europe has limited Russian supply but increased production from the Norwegian Johan Sverdrup field; Asia has refinery maintenance and delayed new plant commissioning; America has record - high production and eased pipeline bottlenecks. For demand, Europe has growing diesel power generation demand, Asia has strong summer gasoline consumption, and America's demand is export - led. Regarding inventory, Europe has ARA diesel inventory at 208.5 tons, Asia's Singapore light distillate inventory dropped 11.01% weekly, and America's Gulf of Mexico crude inventory is at a five - year low. In transportation, European Baltic freight rates are rising, Asian VLCC Middle - East to East - Asia rates are stable, and American pipeline capacity bottlenecks are alleviated [5][6]. 3.4 Key Spreads - Brent - Dubai spread is at 3.25$/b (+0.30$), indicating a shortage of light - sweet crude. WTI - Brent spread is at - 2.82$/b (-0.25$) due to increased quality differences in US crude. Gasoil - Naphtha spread is at 18.75$/mt (+1.20$) with weak petrochemical feedstock demand. ULSD - Jet spread is at 0.97¢/gal (-0.15¢) as the aviation industry's recovery lags [6]. 3.5突发事件 or Potential Impact Factors - The attack in Ukraine led to the shutdown of the Tuapse refinery and a halving of Black Sea CPC blend exports. The Mexican refinery restart was delayed, increasing US gasoline exports to Mexico. US sanctions on India affected Russian oil procurement. A hurricane warning in the US Gulf of Mexico affected production and increased insurance premiums [7]. 3.6 Other Market News - Angola's Cabinda refinery will start production by the end of the year. Oil traders expect OPEC + to maintain output this weekend. Saudi Aramco and SOMO stopped supplying oil to an Indian refiner. Indian officials defended their Russian oil imports. Shandong independent refinery crude arrivals decreased. Syrian oil exports occurred for the first time in 14 years [8][10].
原油:短线观望,关注各类价差反转
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-01 03:00
Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term watch for crude oil, focus on the reversal of various spreads [1] Core Viewpoint - The report analyzes the price, dynamics, cross - regional comparison, key spreads,突发事件 or potential impact factors, and other news of the crude oil and refined oil markets, providing a comprehensive view of the current situation of the oil market [1][2][4] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Crude Oil Market Price and Dynamics - WTI10 crude oil futures fell $0.59/barrel, or 0.91%, to $64.01/barrel; Brent October crude oil futures fell $0.50/barrel, or 0.73%, to $68.12/barrel; SC2510 crude oil futures rose $1.00/barrel, or 0.21%, to $483.90/barrel [1] - In different regions, prices and market dynamics vary. For example, in Europe, the spot trading volume in the Mediterranean decreased by 12% month - on - month due to the Russia - Ukraine conflict; in Asia, the demand for strategic reserve replenishment in China is strong; in America, the congestion of export facilities in the US Gulf has been alleviated [2] 2. Refined Oil Market Price and Dynamics - Different refined oil products in various regions have different price changes and market dynamics. For example, in the gasoline market, the ARA inventory in Europe increased as the summer driving season was coming to an end, while in Asia, Indonesia's Pertamina added a third - quarter import plan [4] 3. Cross - Regional Comparison - In terms of supply, the supply in Russia is restricted in Europe, Chinese refineries are under centralized maintenance in Asia, and the US production has reached a new high in America [5] - Regarding demand, the demand for diesel power generation is increasing in Europe, the summer consumption of gasoline is strong in Asia, and the export demand dominates in America [5] - In terms of inventory, the ARA diesel inventory in Europe is 208.5 tons, the Singapore light distillate inventory decreased by 11.01% week - on - week in Asia, and the crude oil inventory in the Gulf of Mexico is at a five - year low in America [5] 4. Key Spreads - Brent - Dubai spread is $3.25/barrel, up $0.30/barrel, indicating a worsening shortage of light - sweet crude oil [7] - WTI - Brent spread is - $2.82/barrel, down $0.25/barrel, showing an increase in the quality difference of US crude oil [7] 5.突发事件 or Potential Impact Factors - The attack in Ukraine led to the full shutdown of the Tuapse refinery and a halving of the export volume of Black Sea CPC blended oil [8] - The restart of Mexican refineries caused the production of Dos Bocas refinery to be delayed by 6 months, and the US gasoline export volume to Mexico increased by 45% year - on - year [8] 6. Other Market News - China's official manufacturing PMI in August was 49.4, with a previous value of 49.3 and an expected value of 49.5 [8] - The US oil drilling rig count increased to 412 in the week to August 29 [11] - The US crude oil production in June reached a record high, and the supply of crude oil and petroleum products also rose to the highest level since October 2024 [11]