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原油市场中期过剩压力
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能源日报-20250912
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-09-12 11:58
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆ [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆ [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The trading logic of the crude oil market still switches between medium - term surplus pressure and short - term geopolitical fluctuations, with limited upside space for each rebound. The strategy mainly combines previous high - level short positions with out - of - the - money call options [2]. - For fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil, geopolitical fluctuations support FU, and the LU - FU spread continues to shrink [3]. - The decline in asphalt is dragged down by the sharp drop in crude oil. Although the slowdown in shipments in early September is expected to have a short - term impact, the special bonds from August to October 2025 are still considerable. Observe the bottom support strength after the decline in asphalt cracking [4]. - The international LPG market remains strong due to strong procurement demand in India and East Asia. The domestic market is supported by the increase in import costs, but the high inventory on the futures market restricts the upward momentum, and it mainly operates in a range [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices fell, with the Brent November contract down 1.9%. The IEA's September report shows that the increase in supply expectations for the year is greater than that in demand, and the market surplus will be more prominent in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year [2]. Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Crude oil fell at night, and fuel - related futures opened lower. The LU2511 contract fell 3%, and the FU2601 contract fell 2.7%. The net reduction of FU warehouse receipts in the past two trading days was 6,800 tons to 101,500 tons, which boosted FU. The LU - FU spread of the main contract has narrowed from 710 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 550 yuan/ton [3]. Asphalt - Affected by the sharp drop in crude oil, asphalt prices declined. Today, the net increase in warehouse receipts was 3,800 tons. The slowdown in shipments in early September is expected to have a short - term impact. The special bonds from August to October 2025 are still considerable, and both factory and social inventories are decreasing but at a slower pace [4]. LPG - The international LPG market remains strong due to strong procurement demand in India and East Asia. In early September, the arrival volume in Guangdong decreased due to typhoons, strengthening the support of rising import costs for the domestic market. The terminal product prices are rising, and the high - operating - rate pattern can be maintained. However, the high inventory on the futures market restricts the upward momentum, and it mainly operates in a range [5].
短期基本面驱动不强 燃料油期货盘中低位震荡运行
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-09-12 06:06
9月12日,国内期市能化板块涨跌不一。其中,燃料油期货主力合约开盘报2765.00元/吨,今日盘中低 位震荡运行;截至午间收盘,燃料油主力最高触及2770.00元,下方探低2712.00元,跌幅达2.58%。 新湖期货指出,整体来看,发电转弱的逻辑已被计价,目前高硫的关注点主要是供应端,虽然俄出口下 降,但新加坡库存创新高,短期基本面驱动不强,建议持续关注地缘冲突和美国制裁的最新动态。 西南期货分析称,市场持续关注燃料油供应充足的现象,美国对俄罗斯制裁的担忧增加,燃料油价格走 势较强。策略方面,做缩高低硫燃料油价差。 目前来看,燃料油行情呈现震荡下行走势,盘面表现偏弱。对于燃料油后市行情将如何运行,相关机构 观点汇总如下: 国投期货安信表示,隔夜国际油价回落,布伦特11合约跌1.9%。昨日IEA发布9月石油市场报告,对年 内供应预期的上调幅度大于需求,市场过剩幅度进一步增加,且我们预计压力集中在四季度及明年一季 度体现。原油市场的交易逻辑仍在中期过剩压力与短期地缘扰动间切换,但每次反弹空间愈发受限,策 略方面仍以此前高位空单与虚值看涨期权相结合的策略为主。 ...