Group 1: Market News and Important Data - New York Mercantile Exchange's January light crude oil futures rose 20 cents to close at $58.86 per barrel, a 0.22% increase; January Brent crude oil futures rose 40 cents to close at $63.53 per barrel, a 0.76% increase. SC crude oil's main contract closed up 1.46% at 452 yuan per barrel [1] - Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney and Alberta announced a comprehensive energy plan to pave the way for new oil pipelines, large - scale carbon capture projects, and nuclear power supply for data centers, aiming for net - zero emissions in the energy sector by 2050 [1] - As of the week ending November 26, Singapore's fuel oil inventory rose 191,000 barrels to 24.709 million barrels; light distillate inventory fell 898,000 barrels to 13.524 million barrels; middle distillate inventory fell 1.954 million barrels to 8.007 million barrels [1] - On November 26 at 11:30 p.m., a drone attacked the Khor Mor gas field in Iraq, cutting off the gas supply to the power station and causing a major gas storage tank to catch fire, with no casualties [1] - Hungary's Prime Minister Orban's chief of staff said that involving Hungary's oil and gas company might be a solution for Serbia's refinery situation, and negotiations on Serbia's NIS are ongoing [1] - The US Environmental Protection Agency finalized a new rule giving oil and gas operators over a year's grace period to comply with Biden - era methane leakage regulations, expected to save about $750 million in compliance costs over the next decade [1] Group 2: Investment Logic - On November 26, Beijing allocated the first batch of 2026 crude oil import quotas to non - state - owned enterprises. The total amount of 7.4 million tons was lower than expected but 1.4 million tons more than the same period last year. It helps ease the quota shortage of private refineries, but in the medium - term, private large - scale refineries may squeeze local refineries' quotas, and quota management is a key measure to combat involution in the refining industry [2] Group 3: Strategy - Oil prices are expected to fluctuate in a short - term range, with a medium - term short - position configuration and shorting the monthly spread [3] Group 4: Risk - Downside risks include a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine and macro black - swan events - Upside risks include tightened supply of sanctioned oil (from Russia, Iran, Venezuela) and large - scale supply disruptions due to Middle East conflicts [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Oil prices are maintaining a volatile trend. The progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks is slow, the Fed's dovish stance has increased the expectation of a December interest rate cut, boosting risk assets, and the new crude oil import quota issued by the Ministry of Commerce is expected to support China's crude oil imports at the end of the year [2] - Short - term oil prices are expected to be weakly volatile, and a mid - term short - position allocation is recommended, with a strategy of shorting the calendar spread [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light sweet crude oil futures for January delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 78 cents to $58.84 per barrel, a 1.34% increase; the price of Brent crude oil futures for January delivery rose 81 cents to $63.37 per barrel, a 1.29% increase. The SC crude oil main contract closed up 0.94% at 450 yuan per barrel [1] - JPMorgan Chase believes that due to oversupply, Brent crude oil prices may fall to the $30 - 40 range in 2027. It maintains the average price forecast of Brent crude oil in 2026 at $58 per barrel, expects the average price of WTI crude oil in 2026 to be $54 per barrel, and forecasts the average price of Brent crude oil in 2027 to be $57 per barrel and WTI crude oil to be $53 per barrel [1] - Iran's Foreign Ministry Spokesman Ismail Baghaei condemned the recent anti - Iran resolution passed by the IAEA Board of Governors, saying it was a "stain" on the designers and initiators, and that it interfered with the agency's operations and undermined its independence [1] - The US - Ukraine talks in Geneva showed progress in ending the Russia - Ukraine conflict, but the November 27 deadline for the agreement may be extended to next week. European natural gas prices are still higher than before the 2022 energy crisis, but are now a fraction of the peak, and additional supply is expected to push prices down further in the coming years [1] - The board of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company will increase oil reserves by 7 billion barrels to 120 billion barrels and establish a new company to manage an acid gas field, which is expected to produce 1.8 billion standard cubic feet of natural gas, 150,000 barrels of oil and condensate per day [1] - The total number of US oil rigs for the week ending November 21 was 419, up from 417 the previous week; the total number of US natural gas rigs was 127, up from 125 the previous week [1] Investment Logic - Oil prices are in a volatile state. The Russia - Ukraine peace talks are difficult to reach a short - term agreement, the Fed's dovish remarks have increased the December interest rate cut expectation, and the new crude oil import quota is expected to support China's crude oil imports at the end of the year [2] Strategy - Short - term: Oil prices are expected to be weakly volatile; Mid - term: Short - position allocation, shorting the calendar spread [3] Risks - Downside risks: A peace agreement is reached between Russia and Ukraine, and macro black - swan events occur [3] - Upside risks: Supply of sanctioned oil (from Russia, Iran, Venezuela) tightens, and large - scale supply disruptions occur due to Middle East conflicts [4]