（文章来源：新华财经） 新加坡企业发展局（ESG）数据显示，截至12月17日当周，新加坡燃料油库存下降140.4万桶，至4周低 点2465.8万桶；轻馏分油库存上涨65000桶达到17周高点1505.6万桶；中馏分油库存上涨71000桶，达到 843.1万桶的两周高点。 ...

Group 1: Market News and Important Data - New York Mercantile Exchange's January light crude oil futures rose 20 cents to close at $58.86 per barrel, a 0.22% increase; January Brent crude oil futures rose 40 cents to close at $63.53 per barrel, a 0.76% increase. SC crude oil's main contract closed up 1.46% at 452 yuan per barrel [1] - Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney and Alberta announced a comprehensive energy plan to pave the way for new oil pipelines, large - scale carbon capture projects, and nuclear power supply for data centers, aiming for net - zero emissions in the energy sector by 2050 [1] - As of the week ending November 26, Singapore's fuel oil inventory rose 191,000 barrels to 24.709 million barrels; light distillate inventory fell 898,000 barrels to 13.524 million barrels; middle distillate inventory fell 1.954 million barrels to 8.007 million barrels [1] - On November 26 at 11:30 p.m., a drone attacked the Khor Mor gas field in Iraq, cutting off the gas supply to the power station and causing a major gas storage tank to catch fire, with no casualties [1] - Hungary's Prime Minister Orban's chief of staff said that involving Hungary's oil and gas company might be a solution for Serbia's refinery situation, and negotiations on Serbia's NIS are ongoing [1] - The US Environmental Protection Agency finalized a new rule giving oil and gas operators over a year's grace period to comply with Biden - era methane leakage regulations, expected to save about $750 million in compliance costs over the next decade [1] Group 2: Investment Logic - On November 26, Beijing allocated the first batch of 2026 crude oil import quotas to non - state - owned enterprises. The total amount of 7.4 million tons was lower than expected but 1.4 million tons more than the same period last year. It helps ease the quota shortage of private refineries, but in the medium - term, private large - scale refineries may squeeze local refineries' quotas, and quota management is a key measure to combat involution in the refining industry [2] Group 3: Strategy - Oil prices are expected to fluctuate in a short - term range, with a medium - term short - position configuration and shorting the monthly spread [3] Group 4: Risk - Downside risks include a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine and macro black - swan events - Upside risks include tightened supply of sanctioned oil (from Russia, Iran, Venezuela) and large - scale supply disruptions due to Middle East conflicts [4]

Group 1 - Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased by 299,000 barrels to 24.482 million barrels as of the week ending November 5 [1] - Middle distillates inventory increased by 694,000 barrels, reaching 9.216 million barrels [1] - Light distillates inventory fell by 556,000 barrels to a four-week low of 1.278 million barrels [1]

Group 1 - Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased by 892,000 barrels to a two-week low of 23.669 million barrels as of the week ending October 8 [1] - During the same period, Singapore's light distillate inventory fell by 1.904 million barrels to 11.487 million barrels [1] - In contrast, Singapore's middle distillate inventory increased by 263,000 barrels to 10.06 million barrels [1]

Group 1 - As of the week ending September 17, Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased by 1.118 million barrels, reaching a three-week low of 25.41 million barrels [1] - The middle distillates inventory fell by 144,000 barrels, down to 9.719 million barrels, also a three-week low [1] - The light distillates inventory increased by 259,000 barrels, reaching a two-week high of 14.366 million barrels [1]

Group 1 - As of the week ending September 3, Singapore's fuel oil inventory increased by 2.675 million barrels, reaching a 37-week high of 27.399 million barrels [1] - Singapore's middle distillate inventory rose by 510,000 barrels, reaching a 9-week high of 9.841 million barrels [1] - Singapore's light distillate inventory increased by 915,000 barrels, reaching a 2-week high of 14.4 million barrels [1]

Core Viewpoint - Singapore's fuel oil inventory has decreased significantly, while light distillate and middle distillate inventories have seen notable increases, indicating shifts in the oil market dynamics [1] Inventory Summary - As of the week ending August 13, Singapore's fuel oil inventory fell by 1.674 million barrels to 24.645 million barrels, marking a three-week low [1] - Light distillate oil inventory rose by 1.234 million barrels to 14.24 million barrels, reaching a 16-week high [1] - Middle distillate oil inventory increased by 653,000 barrels to 9.326 million barrels, hitting a five-week high [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests that oil prices will oscillate to form a bottom in the short term and recommends a short - position allocation in the medium term [3]. 2. Core View - Due to the stalemate in Russia - Ukraine negotiations and the delay in achieving a cease - fire, Trump's patience for ending the conflict is being consumed. Putin's recent statement about stopping the invasion on the current front represents a major concession, but the short - term outcome of a cease - fire agreement remains highly uncertain. If the US withdraws from mediating the conflict and stops military aid to Ukraine, the situation will favor Russia. The direction of the Russia - Ukraine negotiations may lead to two different results for oil prices: a cease - fire agreement may lead to relaxed US sanctions on Russia, which is bearish for oil prices; if no agreement is reached, the US may increase sanctions on Russia, which is bullish for oil prices [2]. 3. Summary by Related Parts Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 52 cents to $62.79 per barrel, a 0.84% increase; the price of Brent crude oil futures for June delivery rose 43 cents to $66.55 per barrel, a 0.65% increase. The SC crude oil main contract closed up 1.00% at 495 yuan per barrel [1]. - The US White House is discussing whether to lift sanctions on the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline and other potential Russian assets in Europe as part of the discussion to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict. Restarting Nord Stream 2 may bring windfall profits to Moscow, but it depends on the EU's agreement to buy Russian gas through the pipeline again, which seems unlikely. Lifting sanctions would be a "diplomatic coup" for Russia and a major concession from Trump [1]. - Four new Russian companies have sought approval from India to provide insurance for crude oil tankers docked at Indian ports. The Indian Shipping Ministry is considering applications from Sberbank Insurance, Balance Insurance, Ugoria Insurance, and ASTK Insurance. New companies joining the insurance list will further promote Russia's crude oil transportation to India. Since the outbreak of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, India has been a major buyer of discounted Russian crude oil [1]. - As of the week ending April 23, Singapore's fuel oil inventory rose by 1.239 million barrels to 24.126 million barrels, an 18 - week high; middle distillates inventory decreased by 1.138 million barrels to 8.576 million barrels, a 9 - month low; light distillates inventory rose by 1.128 million barrels to 15.62 million barrels, a two - week high [1]. - On the 24th, Trump made a series of remarks on the Russia - Ukraine conflict. He pointed out that both Ukraine and Russia are willing to achieve peace and must join the negotiations. He also set a deadline for the Russia - Ukraine issue. After the deadline, the US attitude will change. Trump expressed dissatisfaction with Russia's attack on Kiev and said he would answer the question of sanctions on Russia within a week. If no agreement is reached to end the conflict, "things will happen" and the US will cooperate with Ukraine to the best of its ability [1]. Risk - Downside risks include significant production increases by OPEC and macro black - swan events. Upside risks include tightened supply of sanctioned oil (from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela) and large - scale supply disruptions due to Middle East conflicts [3].