1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Global crude oil supply is generally abundant, but trade flows are severely distorted due to sanctions. The key characteristic is the "high in - transit inventory," which exerts pressure on immediate - delivery oil prices. Russian supply is the main variable, while other major producers' supply is stable or increasing [6]. - Global crude oil demand shows regional differentiation, with weak demand in China being the main drag. The current slowdown in demand is more driven by short - term policy and maintenance factors rather than a broad - based macro - economic recession [7]. - Suggestions: beware of further price drops; Brent and WTI may test lows before April at the end of this year and early next year, and may even reach $50 per barrel, while the decline of SC may be less than that of foreign benchmarks; although the current decline in oil prices has accelerated under the influence of trade frictions, it is difficult for the medium - to - long - term decline to happen overnight. Pay attention to potential reversals in macro - expectations, as oil price volatility may increase [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overview - Global oil supply is abundant, and trade flows are distorted. Russian supply is affected by sanctions, while other producers' supply is stable or growing. Demand is regionally differentiated, with China's weakness being the main drag [6][7]. 3.2 Macro - The gold - oil ratio has stabilized. Attention should be paid to inflation transmission. The RMB exchange rate has weakened slightly, and social financing has declined [24][30][35]. 3.3 Supply - OPEC+ production: OPEC8's production increase completion rate in October was 80%. OPEC+ may only increase the production target by 137,000 barrels per day in the November 2nd meeting and will suspend production increases in the first quarter of 2026 [37]. - Supply from various countries: Russia's supply is affected by sanctions and port attacks; the United States' shale oil production remains at a high level; Brazil's exports are growing significantly; other countries' supply shows different trends [10][11]. 3.4 Demand - Regional demand is differentiated. China's demand has weakened significantly, mainly due to refinery maintenance and sanctions. India and Europe's demand is relatively stable. Refining profits in the US and Europe are strong, but there are concerns about sanctions [7][12]. 3.5 Inventory - US commercial inventories have stabilized, while Cushing inventories are still significantly lower than historical averages. European diesel inventories have rebounded, and gasoline inventories have decreased. Domestic refined oil inventories in China show different trends [76][81][83]. 3.6 Price and Spread - Spot market: The spot market in the Western region is recovering under the influence of sanctions. Different regions and oil types have different price trends [88][93]. - Basis: The North American basis has rebounded. - Calendar spread: The calendar spread has rebounded slightly. - SC valuation: SC valuation is at a medium - to - low level, and the calendar spread has stabilized. - Net long positions: Net long positions have rebounded [96][97][100].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no specific industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term: Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards single - sided trading; cross - regional spreads may widen [6][8]. - Medium - to long - term: There is significant downward pressure on oil prices. By the end of this year and the beginning of next year, Brent and WTI may test $50 per barrel, and SC may test 420 yuan per barrel [8]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overview - Global crude oil supply is complex. OPEC+ is gradually exiting production cuts, with Russia's supply affected by drone attacks, and non - OPEC+ countries showing significant supply growth [6]. - Global crude oil demand shows regional differentiation. Asia has strong demand, Europe faces seasonal decline, and the US has unexpected gasoline demand [7]. 3.2 Macro - The Fed's interest rate cut has led to a decline in the gold - oil ratio; overseas PPI has increased, and attention should be paid to inflation transmission; the RMB exchange rate has continued to strengthen, and social financing has declined [14][20][25]. 3.3 Supply - OPEC+ core members' production and export situations vary. Some countries are increasing production, while others are facing supply disruptions. For example, the UAE has increased production capacity, and Russia's exports are restricted by attacks [10][11]. - Non - OPEC+ countries also have different supply situations. The US has reached a record - high production, and Brazil's exports to China are expected to hit a record [6][11]. 3.4 Demand - Global demand shows regional differences. China's demand is supported by the agricultural and construction seasons, and new export quotas may ease domestic oversupply. Europe's demand is affected by refinery maintenance, and the US has strong gasoline demand [7]. 3.5 Inventory - US commercial inventories and Cushing region inventories have stabilized; European diesel inventories have rebounded, and gasoline inventories have decreased; domestic refined oil profit margins have declined [69][74][76]. 3.6 Price and Spread - North American basis fluctuates; monthly spreads have a slight rebound; SC is stronger than the external market, and monthly spreads have rebounded; net long positions have rebounded [80][81][84].