1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no specific industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term: Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards single - sided trading; cross - regional spreads may widen [6][8]. - Medium - to long - term: There is significant downward pressure on oil prices. By the end of this year and the beginning of next year, Brent and WTI may test $50 per barrel, and SC may test 420 yuan per barrel [8]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overview - Global crude oil supply is complex. OPEC+ is gradually exiting production cuts, with Russia's supply affected by drone attacks, and non - OPEC+ countries showing significant supply growth [6]. - Global crude oil demand shows regional differentiation. Asia has strong demand, Europe faces seasonal decline, and the US has unexpected gasoline demand [7]. 3.2 Macro - The Fed's interest rate cut has led to a decline in the gold - oil ratio; overseas PPI has increased, and attention should be paid to inflation transmission; the RMB exchange rate has continued to strengthen, and social financing has declined [14][20][25]. 3.3 Supply - OPEC+ core members' production and export situations vary. Some countries are increasing production, while others are facing supply disruptions. For example, the UAE has increased production capacity, and Russia's exports are restricted by attacks [10][11]. - Non - OPEC+ countries also have different supply situations. The US has reached a record - high production, and Brazil's exports to China are expected to hit a record [6][11]. 3.4 Demand - Global demand shows regional differences. China's demand is supported by the agricultural and construction seasons, and new export quotas may ease domestic oversupply. Europe's demand is affected by refinery maintenance, and the US has strong gasoline demand [7]. 3.5 Inventory - US commercial inventories and Cushing region inventories have stabilized; European diesel inventories have rebounded, and gasoline inventories have decreased; domestic refined oil profit margins have declined [69][74][76]. 3.6 Price and Spread - North American basis fluctuates; monthly spreads have a slight rebound; SC is stronger than the external market, and monthly spreads have rebounded; net long positions have rebounded [80][81][84].

Core Viewpoint - The oil shipping market is experiencing a surge in freight rates due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly concerning the Strait of Hormuz, which could lead to a sustained increase in oil transportation costs [1][2]. Group 1: Oil Shipping Market Dynamics - If the Strait of Hormuz is closed, oil shipping rates are expected to continue rising, with VLCC daily charter rates likely to remain above $50,000 per day, indicating a high-level fluctuation [1]. - The Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) shows a significant increase, with the TD3C TCE reaching $57,758 per day as of June 19, up approximately 154% from $22,764 per day on June 12 [1]. - Companies like Zhongyuan Shipping and China Merchants Energy have a significant portion of their VLCC fleet operating in the Middle East, with Zhongyuan Shipping reporting a 53% operational day share in this region [2]. Group 2: Alternative Shipping Routes - The market is exploring alternative shipping routes, such as the Saudi East-West pipeline and routes through the Suez Canal, which may also lead to increased freight costs due to longer travel distances and regional instability [2]. - Adjustments in shipping demand may occur if trade flows change due to the Middle East situation, prompting companies to reposition their fleets to areas with higher cargo demand, such as West Africa and South America [2]. Group 3: Shipping Companies' Responses - Major shipping companies like Maersk and CMA CGM are currently maintaining operations in the Middle East but are closely monitoring the situation for any necessary adjustments to their routes and safety protocols [3].