冠通期货研究报告 --原油周报 研究咨询部苏妙达 执业资格证号：F03104403/Z0018167 发布时间：2025年12月15日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 行情分析 欧佩克+最新会议同意2026年维持该组织整体石油产量不变。8个额外自愿减产的产油国重申明年一季度暂停增 产。原油需求旺季结束，EIA数据显示，美国原油库存去库幅度不及预期，成品油库存增幅超预期。美国原油产量小 幅增加，位于历史最高位附近。特朗普政府极力促成俄乌停火，泽连斯基表示将继续与美国就和平计划进行谈判， 俄罗斯原油受制裁而得到的风险溢价有所回落，欧美成品油裂解基差高位持续回落。美国和俄罗斯暂未就俄乌问题 达成协议。俄乌和谈近期达成较难，美国仍在施压乌克兰。目前泽连斯基表态，接受双边安全保障而非直接"入 约"，作出了一定妥协。美国与委内瑞拉军事对峙继续升级，美国在委内瑞拉海岸扣押油轮，美国财政部宣布对委 内瑞拉实施新的制裁措施。地缘局势引发委内瑞拉、利比亚供应中断担忧。欧美成品油裂解价差持续回落，美联 ...

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Core View - The end of the consumption peak season, a decline in the US ISM manufacturing index in October, unclear prospects for US interest rate cuts, market concerns about crude oil demand, accelerated production increases by OPEC+, and increased exports from the Middle East have led to an oversupply situation in crude oil. However, it is difficult to reach a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine in the near term, and crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [1] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - On November 2nd, OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, the same as the October and November plans, and suspend production increases in Q1 2026. The next OPEC+ meeting will be held on November 30th, which will intensify the crude oil supply pressure in Q4 but unexpectedly reduce the pressure in Q1 2026. The end of the crude oil demand peak season, an unexpected increase in US refined oil inventory according to EIA data, and an increase in net imports have led to an unexpected increase in US crude oil inventory and a slight increase in overall oil product inventory. US crude oil production is near its historical high, but the number of active oil drilling platforms has decreased by 12, raising expectations that low oil prices will limit US crude oil growth. The sanctions imposed by the US and the West have not affected Russia's oil production. There are difficulties in reaching a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine in the near term, and the military confrontation between the US and Venezuela has escalated, causing concerns about supply disruptions in Venezuela and Libya [1] Futures and Spot Market - Today, the main crude oil futures contract, the 2601 contract, rose 1.08% to 447.6 yuan/ton, with a low of 442.8 yuan/ton and a high of 448.1 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 2,687 to 36,011 lots [2] Fundamental Tracking - EIA月报预计2025年全球液态燃料产量将增加270万桶/日，2026年再增加130万桶/日。EIA将2026年美国原油产量上调20万桶/日至1350万桶/日。OPEC月报将第三季度全球石油短缺40万桶/日调整为过剩50万桶/日，将2026年全球石油短缺5万桶/日调整为过剩2万桶/日。OPEC月报将2025年全球原油需求增速预测维持在130万桶/日，将2026年全球原油需求增速预测维持在138万桶/日。IEA年度《世界能源展望》中预测石油需求可能将持续增长至2050年，而IEA此前预计全球石油需求将在2030年见顶。IEA月报将2025年全球原油供应增速上调10万桶/日至310万桶/日，将2026年全球原油供应增速上调10万桶/日至250万桶/日；将2025年全球原油需求增速上调7.8万桶/日至78.8万桶/日，将2026年全球原油需求增速上调7.1万桶/日至77万桶/日 [3] Inventory and Supply - Demand Data - On the evening of November 26th, EIA data showed that for the week ending November 21st, US crude oil inventory increased by 2.774 million barrels (expected 55,000 barrels), 4.50% lower than the five - year average; gasoline inventory increased by 2.513 million barrels (expected 745,000 barrels); refined oil inventory increased by 1.147 million barrels (expected 556,000 barrels); Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 68,000 barrels. OPEC's September crude oil production was adjusted down by 13,000 barrels per day to 28.427 million barrels per day, and its October production increased by 33,000 barrels per day to 28.46 million barrels per day, mainly driven by Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. OPEC+ October production decreased by 73,000 barrels per day compared to September to 43.02 million barrels per day. US crude oil production for the week of November 21st decreased by 20,000 barrels per day to 13.814 million barrels per day, near its historical high. The four - week average supply of US crude oil products decreased to 20.381 million barrels per day, 0.33% lower than the same period last year. Gasoline weekly demand increased by 2.32% to 8.726 million barrels per day, with a four - week average demand of 8.789 million barrels per day, 0.06% higher than the same period last year; diesel weekly demand decreased by 13.39% to 3.362 million barrels per day, with a four - week average demand of 3.743 million barrels per day, 0.17% lower than the same period last year. Although diesel demand decreased significantly, the increase in gasoline and other oil products led to a 0.41% increase in the single - week supply of US crude oil products [4][6]

冠通期货研究报告 --2025年11月原油月度报告 发布日期：2025年10月27日 冠通期货研究咨询部 分析师：苏妙达 执业证书号：F03104403/Z0018167 联系电话：010-85356618 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 行情分析 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 10月5日，OPEC+八国决定将在11月进一步增产13.7万桶/日。下次会议将于11月2日举行。这将加剧四季度的原油供应压力。 原油需求旺季结束，不过EIA数据显示美国炼厂开工低位反弹，美国原油超预期去库，成品油去库幅度超预期，整体油品库存转而 有所减少。俄罗斯原油贴水扩大后，印度继续进口俄罗斯原油。不过印度有与美国达成新的关税协议而同意逐步减少对俄罗斯石 油进口的可能。在欧美制裁俄罗斯石油公司后，印度最大的私营炼油商信实工业表示将调整炼油厂的运营以满足合规要求。由于 乌克兰加大对俄罗斯石油基础设施的打击力度，俄罗斯副总理诺瓦克表示，俄罗斯将柴油和汽油出口禁令延长至年底。目前俄罗 斯原油出口量仍处高位。EIA月报预计2025年四季 ...