1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The crude oil market is in a state of oversupply, and it is expected that crude oil prices will fluctuate weakly. Although crude oil prices rebounded temporarily due to factors such as the US seizing oil tankers off the coast of Venezuela and imposing new sanctions on Venezuela, as well as Kazakhstan's lower - than - expected exports, the resumption of the West Qurna 2 oilfield by Lukoil in Iraq, the higher - than - expected increase in US refined oil inventories, and the US's efforts to promote peace talks between Russia and Ukraine have led to crude oil prices hitting a one - month low [3][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Analysis - OPEC+ agreed to keep the organization's overall oil production unchanged in 2026. Eight additional voluntary - cut producing countries reiterated the suspension of production increases in Q1 2026. The peak season for crude oil demand has ended. EIA data shows that the decline in US crude oil inventories was less than expected, while the increase in refined oil inventories exceeded expectations. US crude oil production increased slightly and is near the historical high. The risk premium of Russian crude oil due to sanctions has declined. Geopolitical tensions between the US and Venezuela have escalated, and there are concerns about supply disruptions in Venezuela and Libya. The crack spread of refined oil products in Europe and the US has continued to decline. The market still worries about crude oil demand. The number of US oil drilling rigs has increased, OPEC+ has continued to increase production, and Middle East exports have risen. The global floating crude oil storage has continued to increase. The 3rd SPM of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, which is under maintenance, is expected to resume around the 15th. Iraq has recently resumed the West Qurna 2 oilfield. Saudi Aramco has set the price of "Arab Light Crude Oil" sold to Asia in January next year at a premium of $0.6 per barrel over the Oman/Dubai crude oil average price, the lowest level since January 2021 [3]. 3.2 Crude Oil Supply Side - OPEC's crude oil production in October 2025 was adjusted down by 21,000 barrels per day to 2,848,100 barrels per day, and its production in November decreased by 1,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 2,848,000 barrels per day, mainly driven by production cuts in Iraq and Iran. OPEC+ crude oil production in November increased by 43,000 barrels per day compared to October, reaching 43.06 million barrels per day. US crude oil production in the week of December 5 increased by 38,000 barrels per day to 1,385,300 barrels per day, near the historical high. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 200,000 barrels month - on - month to 411.9 million barrels, the highest since the week of September 30, 2022, and has increased for 20 consecutive weeks [13]. 3.3 Performance of Refined Oil Products in Europe and the US - The gasoline crack spreads in the US and Europe decreased by $0.5 per barrel and $1.0 per barrel respectively, and the diesel crack spreads in the US and Europe decreased by $2.5 per barrel and $4.0 per barrel respectively [22]. 3.4 US Gasoline and Diesel Demand - According to the latest data from the US Energy Agency, the four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased to 20.417 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 0.31%, and the year - on - year high margin decreased. Among them, the weekly gasoline demand increased by 1.56% to 8.456 million barrels per day, the four - week average demand was 8.509 million barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 1.27%; the weekly diesel demand increased by 21.22% to 4.158 million barrels per day, the four - week average demand was 3.708 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 3.42%. The significant month - on - month rebound in diesel demand drove the month - on - month increase of the single - week supply of US crude oil products by 4.42% [27]. 3.5 US Crude Oil Inventory - On the evening of December 10, EIA data showed that for the week ending December 5, US crude oil inventories decreased by 1.8 million barrels, less than the expected decrease of 2.31 million barrels, and 3.21% lower than the five - year average; gasoline inventories increased by 6.397 million barrels, more than the expected increase of 2.764 million barrels; refined oil inventories increased by 2.502 million barrels, more than the expected increase of 1.943 million barrels. Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 200,000 barrels. The decline in US crude oil inventories was less than expected, while the increase in refined oil inventories exceeded expectations [35]. 3.6 Geopolitical Risks - On the 13th local time, the governor of Odessa Oblast in Ukraine said that Odessa was subjected to a large - scale air strike by Russia, with most areas in Odessa experiencing water and heating outages and some areas having power outages. Ukrainian President Zelensky said that Ukraine's first wish is to join NATO for real security guarantees, but due to the non - support of the US and some European partners, Ukraine agrees to accept security guarantees similar to Article 5 of the NATO collective defense clause provided by the US and Europe. EU governments have reached an agreement to freeze the assets of the Russian central bank in Europe indefinitely; the Russian central bank has sued Euroclear Bank and warned the EU not to touch the frozen assets [41].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Core View - The end of the consumption peak season, a decline in the US ISM manufacturing index in October, unclear prospects for US interest rate cuts, market concerns about crude oil demand, accelerated production increases by OPEC+, and increased exports from the Middle East have led to an oversupply situation in crude oil. However, it is difficult to reach a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine in the near term, and crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [1] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - On November 2nd, OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, the same as the October and November plans, and suspend production increases in Q1 2026. The next OPEC+ meeting will be held on November 30th, which will intensify the crude oil supply pressure in Q4 but unexpectedly reduce the pressure in Q1 2026. The end of the crude oil demand peak season, an unexpected increase in US refined oil inventory according to EIA data, and an increase in net imports have led to an unexpected increase in US crude oil inventory and a slight increase in overall oil product inventory. US crude oil production is near its historical high, but the number of active oil drilling platforms has decreased by 12, raising expectations that low oil prices will limit US crude oil growth. The sanctions imposed by the US and the West have not affected Russia's oil production. There are difficulties in reaching a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine in the near term, and the military confrontation between the US and Venezuela has escalated, causing concerns about supply disruptions in Venezuela and Libya [1] Futures and Spot Market - Today, the main crude oil futures contract, the 2601 contract, rose 1.08% to 447.6 yuan/ton, with a low of 442.8 yuan/ton and a high of 448.1 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 2,687 to 36,011 lots [2] Fundamental Tracking - EIA月报预计2025年全球液态燃料产量将增加270万桶/日，2026年再增加130万桶/日。EIA将2026年美国原油产量上调20万桶/日至1350万桶/日。OPEC月报将第三季度全球石油短缺40万桶/日调整为过剩50万桶/日，将2026年全球石油短缺5万桶/日调整为过剩2万桶/日。OPEC月报将2025年全球原油需求增速预测维持在130万桶/日，将2026年全球原油需求增速预测维持在138万桶/日。IEA年度《世界能源展望》中预测石油需求可能将持续增长至2050年，而IEA此前预计全球石油需求将在2030年见顶。IEA月报将2025年全球原油供应增速上调10万桶/日至310万桶/日，将2026年全球原油供应增速上调10万桶/日至250万桶/日；将2025年全球原油需求增速上调7.8万桶/日至78.8万桶/日，将2026年全球原油需求增速上调7.1万桶/日至77万桶/日 [3] Inventory and Supply - Demand Data - On the evening of November 26th, EIA data showed that for the week ending November 21st, US crude oil inventory increased by 2.774 million barrels (expected 55,000 barrels), 4.50% lower than the five - year average; gasoline inventory increased by 2.513 million barrels (expected 745,000 barrels); refined oil inventory increased by 1.147 million barrels (expected 556,000 barrels); Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 68,000 barrels. OPEC's September crude oil production was adjusted down by 13,000 barrels per day to 28.427 million barrels per day, and its October production increased by 33,000 barrels per day to 28.46 million barrels per day, mainly driven by Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. OPEC+ October production decreased by 73,000 barrels per day compared to September to 43.02 million barrels per day. US crude oil production for the week of November 21st decreased by 20,000 barrels per day to 13.814 million barrels per day, near its historical high. The four - week average supply of US crude oil products decreased to 20.381 million barrels per day, 0.33% lower than the same period last year. Gasoline weekly demand increased by 2.32% to 8.726 million barrels per day, with a four - week average demand of 8.789 million barrels per day, 0.06% higher than the same period last year; diesel weekly demand decreased by 13.39% to 3.362 million barrels per day, with a four - week average demand of 3.743 million barrels per day, 0.17% lower than the same period last year. Although diesel demand decreased significantly, the increase in gasoline and other oil products led to a 0.41% increase in the single - week supply of US crude oil products [4][6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The crude oil market remains in a supply - surplus situation, but the price is expected to rebound from the low level in the near term and show a trend of first rising and then falling in November. Attention should be paid to changes in Russian crude oil exports after sanctions and the APEC leaders' informal meeting [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - On October 5, OPEC+ eight countries decided to further increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, which will intensify the crude oil supply pressure in the fourth quarter. The peak season for crude oil demand has ended. Although the EIA data shows a rebound in the operating rate of US refineries and unexpected destocking of crude oil and refined oil in the US, the overall oil inventory has decreased. India may gradually reduce its imports of Russian oil. Russia has extended the export ban on diesel and gasoline until the end of the year, but its crude oil export volume remains high. The EIA and IEA predict an increase in global oil inventory and an intensification of the oil surplus. The market is worried about crude oil demand, but due to the US sanctions on Russian oil companies and the change in the US - Russia relationship, the crude oil price is expected to rebound first and then decline in November [3] 3.2 Market Review - In October, the domestic crude oil price declined. On October 5, OPEC+ planned to increase production, the geopolitical risk cooled, and the Sino - US trade friction escalated, leading to a continuous decline in the price. In late October, after the Sino - US economic and trade consultations and the US sanctions on Russian oil companies, the price rebounded from the low level [7] 3.3 Crude Oil Position and Warehouse Receipt Situation - The net position of WTI in October was not announced. The net long position of Brent crude oil managed funds continued to decline in October. As of the week of October 14, it decreased by 37,794 contracts to 109,606 contracts, a decrease of 25.64%, and a decrease of 47.58% compared with the end of September. As of October 23, the Shanghai crude oil warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 190,000 barrels to 5.211 million barrels compared with the end of September and remained at a relatively low level [10][11] 3.4 Crude Oil Production - OPEC's August crude oil production was revised down by 32,000 barrels per day to 27.916 million barrels per day, and its September 2025 production increased by 524,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 28.44 million barrels per day, mainly driven by the increase in production in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. On October 5, OPEC+ eight countries decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November. The US crude oil production in the week of October 10 decreased by 7,000 barrels per day to 13.629 million barrels per day, close to the historical high level [15] 3.5 Oil Drilling Rigs - In October, the number of US oil drilling rigs showed a decreasing trend again. As of the week of October 17, the number was 418, a decrease of 6 compared with the week of September 26 [19] 3.6 US Crude Oil Imports and Exports - As of the week of October 17, the US crude oil imports increased by 393,000 barrels per day to 5.918 million barrels per day, at a neutral level in the same period of previous years; the US crude oil exports decreased by 263,000 barrels per day to 4.203 million barrels per day, at a slightly higher - than - neutral level in the same period of previous years [23] 3.7 China's Crude Oil Processing Volume and Imports - China's September crude oil processing volume decreased by 1.23% month - on - month to 62.687 million tons, an increase of 6.80% year - on - year, at a relatively high level in the same period of previous years. From January to September, the cumulative year - on - year increase was 3.70%. China's September crude oil imports decreased by 4.53% month - on - month to 47.25 million tons, an increase of 3.90% year - on - year. From January to September, the cumulative year - on - year increase was 2.60% [27] 3.8 US Dollar Index - In September, the US CPI increased by 3% year - on - year, lower than expected but still the highest since June 2024; it increased by 0.3% month - on - month, lower than August and market expectations. The US White House may not release inflation data next month. On October 30, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points [31] 3.9 Gasoline Crack Spread - In October, after the end of the summer consumption peak season, the US and European gasoline crack spreads decreased by $1.5 per barrel and $1.0 per barrel respectively. Affected by Russian sanctions, the US and European diesel crack spreads increased by $1.5 per barrel and $2.0 per barrel respectively [35] 3.10 US Gasoline and Diesel Demand - The EIA expects the global oil inventory to increase by about 2.6 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025. Different organizations have different adjustments to global oil demand and supply growth rates, and the oil supply surplus has intensified. The four - week average supply of US crude oil products decreased to 20.474 million barrels per day, a decrease of 2.24% compared with the same period last year. Gasoline and diesel demand decreased month - on - month, but the increase in other oil products drove the single - week supply of US crude oil products to increase by 1.46% month - on - month [39] 3.11 Crude Oil Inventory - As of the week of October 17, the US crude oil inventory decreased by 961,000 barrels, with an expected increase of 1.205 million barrels, and was 3.67% lower than the five - year average. The Cushing area inventory decreased by 770,000 barrels to 21.231 million barrels, at a near - record low in the same period in recent years. The US gasoline inventory decreased by 2.147 million barrels, with an expected decrease of 809,000 barrels. The US strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 819,000 barrels to 408.6 million barrels, the highest since the week of October 7, 2022. The US plans to purchase 1 million barrels of crude oil to replenish the strategic petroleum reserve [43][47] 3.12 Geopolitical Risks - The US Treasury has blacklisted Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil. The US is deploying the "Ford" aircraft carrier strike group to the Latin American waters. Palestinian factions agree to establish a governing body for the Gaza Strip, and Pakistan and Afghanistan hold talks on a cease - fire [49]