Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Muyuan Foods has submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to expand its financing channels and enhance its international influence, which could invigorate the livestock sector [1] - Muyuan Foods is a modern enterprise focused on pig farming, integrating feed processing, breeding, pig farming, and slaughtering, and has maintained the highest global pig output since its listing on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2014 [1] - According to招商证券, the pig price performance has exceeded market expectations due to a seasonal narrowing of the price gap and accelerated selling pace in the breeding industry, with limited supply growth expected in Q2 2024 [1] Group 2 - According to 光大证券, the pig farming industry's capacity cycle has bottomed out, with current inventory levels remaining relatively high, indicating a potential turning point in inventory that could drive a reduction in production capacity [2] - The agricultural 50 ETF (516810) is considered worthy of attention as it is at a bottom region, and if pig prices rise, companies may benefit from the widening "scissors difference" between rising prices and falling costs, potentially exceeding market profit expectations [2] - The long-term perspective suggests that after the end of destocking, the sector may enter a prolonged period of profit growth [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the pig farming industry is experiencing a short-term decline in pig prices due to accelerated weight reduction and increased slaughtering, but this is expected to lead to a price rebound around mid-June 2025 as supply contracts and inventory levels drop [1] - The China Livestock Breeding Index (930707) has shown positive performance with key stocks such as Shennong Group (605296) rising by 4.67%, Wens Foodstuff Group (300498) by 4.64%, and Muyuan Foods (002714) by 4.18% [1] - According to Everbright Securities, the industry capacity cycle has bottomed out, and the current high inventory levels are expected to decline, which may trigger a long-term profit uptrend in the sector after the inventory reduction phase ends [1] Group 2 - The Livestock ETF (159867) has increased by 1.31%, with the latest price reported at 0.62 yuan, reflecting the overall performance of the livestock breeding sector [1] - The China Livestock Breeding Index is designed to track the performance of listed companies involved in livestock feed, veterinary drugs, and livestock farming, with the top ten weighted stocks accounting for 68.9% of the index [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index include Haida Group (002311), Muyuan Foods (002714), Wens Foodstuff Group (300498), and others, indicating a concentrated market structure [2]

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 今 日 聚 焦 【策略】大小盘风格分化或将收敛——策略周专题（2025年5月第2期） 4月上旬以来，大小盘风格分化，小微盘宽基指数市场表现显著优于大中盘宽基指数。4月8日至5月16日， 上证50、沪深300、中证500等大中盘宽基指数涨幅低于中证1000、中证2000以及万得微盘股指数等小微盘 宽基指数。从历史规律、增量资金、风险因素、基本面以及交易指标来看，大小盘风格分化未来或将收 敛。 （张宇生/郭磊） 2025-05-18 您可点击今日推送内容的第1条查 看 【固收】二级市场价格延续震荡上行，新增一只园区类REIT申报——REITs周度观察（20250512- 20250516） 2025年5月12日-2025年5月16日，我国已 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Buy" [5] Core Views - The report indicates a weakening trend in pig prices, with the national average price for external three yuan pigs at 14.61 yuan/kg, down 1.42% week-on-week. The average price for 15 kg piglets is 36.23 yuan/kg, down 1.74% week-on-week. The report suggests that the industry is approaching a turning point in inventory levels as the market conditions evolve [1][24] - The white feather broiler and chick prices have also declined, with the white feather broiler price at 7.40 yuan/kg, down 0.67% week-on-week, and chick price at 2.85 yuan/bird, down 2.06% week-on-week. The report highlights a decrease in procurement willingness due to increased inventory and slow sales of frozen products [1][33] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - The agricultural and forestry sector underperformed the market, with the agricultural index rising only 0.05% compared to the Shanghai Composite Index's 0.76% increase [14] - The performance of sub-sectors varied, with animal health and feed sectors showing positive growth, while poultry farming and planting sectors experienced declines [14][18] 2. Key Data Tracking - The average weight of pigs at slaughter is at a new high since early 2023, indicating potential inventory reduction in the near future [24] - The average price of corn is 2374.90 yuan/ton, up 0.48% week-on-week, while soybean meal prices have decreased by 5.93% to 3115.71 yuan/ton [2][47] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the pig farming sector, suggesting that the industry is nearing a turning point in inventory levels, which could lead to a long-term profit increase. Key companies to watch include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Juxing Agriculture [4][73] - For the post-cycle sector, companies like Haida Group and Ruipu Biological are recommended due to the recovery in feed and veterinary demand [4][73] - In the planting chain, companies such as Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang are highlighted as having strong investment opportunities due to the upward trend in grain prices [4][73] - The pet food sector is also noted for its growth potential, with companies like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co. being recommended [4][73]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Buy" [5] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates a weakening trend in pig prices, with the national average price for external three yuan pigs at 14.61 yuan/kg, down 1.42% week-on-week. The average price for 15 kg piglets is 36.23 yuan/kg, down 1.74% week-on-week [24][1] - The report highlights that the industry is approaching a turning point in inventory levels, with the average post-slaughter weight of pigs reaching a new high since early 2023, suggesting a potential recovery in profitability after inventory reduction [4][24] - In the poultry sector, both white feather broiler and chick prices have declined, with white feather broiler prices at 7.40 yuan/kg, down 0.67% week-on-week, and chick prices at 2.85 yuan/bird, down 2.06% week-on-week [33][2] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural sector underperformed the market, with the agricultural index rising only 0.05% compared to the Shanghai Composite Index's 0.76% increase [14] - The performance of sub-sectors within agriculture varied, with animal health and feed sectors showing positive growth while poultry and planting sectors faced declines [14][18] 2. Key Data Tracking - The average price of corn is 2374.90 yuan/ton, up 0.48% week-on-week, while soybean meal prices fell by 5.93% to 3115.71 yuan/ton. Wheat prices increased by 0.33% to 2468.89 yuan/ton [2][47] - The report notes that the average weight of pigs at slaughter is 92.02 kg, with a slight increase of 0.17% week-on-week, indicating stable supply conditions [22][24] 3. Investment Recommendations - For the pig farming sector, the report recommends stocks such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Juxing Agriculture, anticipating a long-term upward trend in profitability following inventory reduction [4][73] - In the planting chain, the report suggests focusing on companies like Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang, as the upward trend in grain prices is expected to continue [4][73] - The pet food sector is highlighted as a growth area, with recommendations for companies like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co., as the domestic market continues to expand [4][73]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [4] Core Views - The current pig price is on the rise, with the national average price for live pigs at 14.82 yuan/kg as of May 9, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.07% [28] - The average weight of pigs at slaughter has reached a new high since early 2023, indicating a potential turning point in inventory levels, which may lead to a phase of destocking in the industry [28][3] - The report highlights a significant differentiation in sales performance among listed companies, with some experiencing a decline in sales volume while others maintain growth [2][13] Summary by Sections Sales Volume - In April, the total number of pigs sold by 13 listed companies was 16.26 million heads, a decrease of 5.39% month-on-month but an increase of 39.69% year-on-year [2][14] - The average weight of slaughtered pigs has increased, with the average weight for April reported at 125.25 kg, up by 0.81 kg from the previous month [17][28] Sales Price - The report notes that the average selling price of pigs has remained stable, with most companies reporting price fluctuations within 3% [2][15] - The lowest average price was recorded at 14.32 yuan/kg by TianKang Biological, while the highest was 15.81 yuan/kg by DongRui Co [15][2] Inventory and Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the current inventory levels are high, and the demand has weakened post the May Day holiday, leading to increased pressure on pig sales in southern regions [28][3] - The report suggests that the industry may be entering a destocking phase as the willingness to sell fattened pigs decreases [28][3] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Juxing Agriculture for the pig farming sector [3] - It also suggests monitoring companies in the feed and animal health sectors, such as Haida Group and Ruipu Biological, as their performance is expected to improve with the recovery of pig inventory levels [3]