Core Viewpoint - The macro market is influenced by geopolitical tensions and policy dynamics, with energy and precious metals experiencing significant volatility due to the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East and differing monetary policies between the U.S. and China [1]. Group 1: Energy Market - The WTI crude oil price surged past $100 due to increased risk premiums from Middle Eastern tensions, particularly the conflict involving Iran and Saudi Arabia [1]. - The domestic energy and chemical sectors showed strength as a result of rising oil prices, while the gold price approached 1400 yuan per gram due to safe-haven demand and hawkish expectations from the Federal Reserve [1]. - Indonesia's approval of export tariffs on coal and nickel, along with Russia's planned ban on gasoline exports starting in April, has added uncertainty to the prices of related commodities [1]. Group 2: Precious Metals - Precious metals are experiencing volatility, primarily driven by a dual pressure from revised interest rate expectations and liquidity shocks, with a decrease in rate cut expectations leading to an increase in the U.S. dollar index and real interest rates [3]. - Long-term trends indicate that geopolitical risks are likely to elevate the price center for precious metals, with ongoing concerns about U.S. fiscal sustainability and a continued push for de-dollarization, leading to increased gold reserves by global central banks [3]. Group 3: Stock Indices - U.S. stock indices fell, with the market showing a shift from "trading on expectations" to "looking for actual results" as the earnings season approaches [4]. - The first quarter of 2026 is characterized by global market differentiation, technology reassessment, and policy disruptions, with the Federal Reserve signaling a prolonged hawkish stance [4]. - High-valuation growth stocks, particularly in technology, face ongoing pressure from rising risk-free rates, while low-valuation, high-dividend assets are expected to exhibit stronger defensive characteristics amid external uncertainties [4]. Group 4: Industrial Profit Data - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 15.2% year-on-year in January and February, reflecting a recovery in industrial performance [9]. - Notable profit growth was observed in the non-ferrous metals and chemical industries, with specific sectors like aluminum processing and inorganic salt manufacturing seeing profit increases of 264.0% and 518.5%, respectively [9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the U.S. government experienced a brief shutdown on January 31, 2026, due to the inability of the House of Representatives to vote on funding, despite bipartisan compromises being reached [1] - The shutdown is expected to be short-lived, with the government likely reopening as early as February 2, 2026, once the House passes the funding resolution [1] - The impact of this shutdown is anticipated to be minimal on the economy, markets, and data releases, as it occurred over a weekend and only affected certain institutions [1] Group 2 - The recurring government shutdowns highlight the increasing domestic division and political polarization in the U.S. [1] - In the long term, these political issues may accelerate the process of de-dollarization [1]

Group 1 - The short-term catalysts include the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut at the end of October and progress in trade negotiations at the APEC meeting, with potential gold price impact if trade tensions escalate, possibly reaching 4300 USD [2] - Long-term support factors remain unchanged, including global central bank gold purchases, the widening U.S. fiscal deficit due to government shutdowns, and the de-dollarization process, with ING predicting gold prices may reach 5000 USD within the year [2] - Potential triggers for a price correction include easing trade tensions, hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, and better-than-expected non-farm payroll data, which could lead to a 3%-5% pullback in gold prices [2] Group 2 - Investment recommendations suggest ordinary investors consider diversifying through gold ETFs (e.g., 517400), while those with higher risk tolerance may look to accumulate gold mining stocks, with a stop-loss set above 10% [2]

Core Viewpoint - Short-term fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by temporary factors and technical overbought conditions, but long-term bullish factors remain solid [2] Group 1: Short-term Factors - Gold prices are supported by the high probability (95%) of a Federal Reserve rate cut in October and geopolitical risks related to a potential U.S. government shutdown [2] - Technical consolidation is needed, indicating a potentially volatile trading environment [2] Group 2: Long-term Trends - Global central bank gold purchases reached nearly 150 tons in September, marking the highest monthly total of the year, contributing to a strong long-term demand for gold [2] - The ongoing de-dollarization process and future Federal Reserve rate cut expectations are expected to create a solid bottom for gold prices [2] - Under neutral assumptions, models predict that gold prices could challenge $4,500 per ounce in the first quarter of next year [2] Group 3: Key Upcoming Events - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on October 29 is a critical event, with a high expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut [3] - Monitoring the developments regarding the U.S. government shutdown is essential for understanding potential market impacts [4] - Continued attention to geopolitical risks, particularly in Venezuela and the Middle East, is necessary [5]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary's call for high tariffs on countries purchasing Russian energy, particularly targeting China, reflects a unilateral approach that lacks support from European allies [1][3] - The proposed 200% tariff on China is deemed unrealistic, as even during the peak of the U.S.-China trade war, the highest tariff was only 145%, indicating the challenges of fully isolating China economically [3][5] - European nations are cautious about aligning too closely with U.S. policies against China, recognizing that such actions could jeopardize their own economic interests and access to the Chinese market [3][5] Group 2 - The U.S. strategy of encouraging allies to impose tariffs on China while avoiding direct confrontation reveals a desire to shift the burden of economic conflict onto other nations [5][7] - Historical patterns show that U.S. attempts to isolate countries like Iran have backfired, leading to stronger alliances among those targeted, similar to the current dynamics with China and Russia [9] - The silence from G7 nations during discussions about tariffs indicates a growing reluctance to support U.S. hegemonic ambitions, suggesting a potential shift in global economic alliances [11]