Group 1 - The short-term catalysts include the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut at the end of October and progress in trade negotiations at the APEC meeting, with potential gold price impact if trade tensions escalate, possibly reaching 4300 USD [2] - Long-term support factors remain unchanged, including global central bank gold purchases, the widening U.S. fiscal deficit due to government shutdowns, and the de-dollarization process, with ING predicting gold prices may reach 5000 USD within the year [2] - Potential triggers for a price correction include easing trade tensions, hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, and better-than-expected non-farm payroll data, which could lead to a 3%-5% pullback in gold prices [2] Group 2 - Investment recommendations suggest ordinary investors consider diversifying through gold ETFs (e.g., 517400), while those with higher risk tolerance may look to accumulate gold mining stocks, with a stop-loss set above 10% [2]

Core Viewpoint - Short-term fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by temporary factors and technical overbought conditions, but long-term bullish factors remain solid [2] Group 1: Short-term Factors - Gold prices are supported by the high probability (95%) of a Federal Reserve rate cut in October and geopolitical risks related to a potential U.S. government shutdown [2] - Technical consolidation is needed, indicating a potentially volatile trading environment [2] Group 2: Long-term Trends - Global central bank gold purchases reached nearly 150 tons in September, marking the highest monthly total of the year, contributing to a strong long-term demand for gold [2] - The ongoing de-dollarization process and future Federal Reserve rate cut expectations are expected to create a solid bottom for gold prices [2] - Under neutral assumptions, models predict that gold prices could challenge $4,500 per ounce in the first quarter of next year [2] Group 3: Key Upcoming Events - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on October 29 is a critical event, with a high expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut [3] - Monitoring the developments regarding the U.S. government shutdown is essential for understanding potential market impacts [4] - Continued attention to geopolitical risks, particularly in Venezuela and the Middle East, is necessary [5]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary's call for high tariffs on countries purchasing Russian energy, particularly targeting China, reflects a unilateral approach that lacks support from European allies [1][3] - The proposed 200% tariff on China is deemed unrealistic, as even during the peak of the U.S.-China trade war, the highest tariff was only 145%, indicating the challenges of fully isolating China economically [3][5] - European nations are cautious about aligning too closely with U.S. policies against China, recognizing that such actions could jeopardize their own economic interests and access to the Chinese market [3][5] Group 2 - The U.S. strategy of encouraging allies to impose tariffs on China while avoiding direct confrontation reveals a desire to shift the burden of economic conflict onto other nations [5][7] - Historical patterns show that U.S. attempts to isolate countries like Iran have backfired, leading to stronger alliances among those targeted, similar to the current dynamics with China and Russia [9] - The silence from G7 nations during discussions about tariffs indicates a growing reluctance to support U.S. hegemonic ambitions, suggesting a potential shift in global economic alliances [11]