Core Viewpoint - Precious metals are currently under pressure due to a stronger dollar and changing expectations regarding Federal Reserve policies, but long-term trends such as global central bank gold purchases and potential impacts of U.S. debt issues on dollar credibility continue to support precious metals [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - COMEX gold futures rose by 0.29% to $4,078.30 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures increased by 1.08% to $51.07 per ounce [1]. - The platinum market is expected to experience a significant shortage for the third consecutive year, with a projected shortfall of 22 tons, revised down by 5 tons from previous estimates [1]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - The minutes from the Federal Reserve's October policy meeting revealed significant divisions among officials regarding interest rate decisions, with some suggesting that maintaining rates through 2025 may be appropriate, while others indicated that another rate cut in December could be likely if economic performance aligns with expectations [1]. Group 3: Employment Data - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that it will not release the October employment report, indicating that the non-farm employment data will be included in the November report instead [1].

Core Insights - Gold prices experienced a significant drop from a historical high of $4179 due to profit-taking by investors and short-term overbought conditions in the market [2] - The rebound from $4090 was supported by low-level buying, indicating a strong bullish sentiment among investors who view corrections as buying opportunities [2] - Fundamental factors supporting gold's long-term bullish trend, such as expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, global trade tensions, and strong central bank gold purchases, remain unchanged [2][3] Recent Influential Events - Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction is the most critical factor affecting gold prices, with high expectations for rate cuts in October and December, which would lower the opportunity cost of holding gold [3] - Ongoing global trade tensions, particularly those stemming from the Trump administration, are increasing economic uncertainty and driving safe-haven investments into gold [3] - Geopolitical risks, especially in the Middle East and other volatile regions, can reignite demand for gold as a safe haven [3] - Central bank gold purchases are at multi-decade highs, providing solid long-term support for gold prices and reinforcing bullish market sentiment [3] - The strength of the US dollar has a direct negative correlation with gold prices, influencing the market dynamics [3] Current Trading Strategy - The overall strategy is to maintain a bullish outlook while being cautious of short-term volatility [4] - Key support levels to watch are in the $4090 - $4100 range, which, if maintained, would indicate a healthy correction and present buying opportunities [4] - Short-term resistance is identified near the previous high of $4179, with a breakthrough potentially opening up price targets of $4200 - $4300 or higher [5] - Risk management is crucial, especially near historical highs where market volatility can increase significantly; recommendations include light positions and strict stop-loss orders [5]

Core Viewpoint - Short-term fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by temporary factors and technical overbought conditions, but long-term bullish factors remain solid [2] Group 1: Short-term Factors - Gold prices are supported by the high probability (95%) of a Federal Reserve rate cut in October and geopolitical risks related to a potential U.S. government shutdown [2] - Technical consolidation is needed, indicating a potentially volatile trading environment [2] Group 2: Long-term Trends - Global central bank gold purchases reached nearly 150 tons in September, marking the highest monthly total of the year, contributing to a strong long-term demand for gold [2] - The ongoing de-dollarization process and future Federal Reserve rate cut expectations are expected to create a solid bottom for gold prices [2] - Under neutral assumptions, models predict that gold prices could challenge $4,500 per ounce in the first quarter of next year [2] Group 3: Key Upcoming Events - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on October 29 is a critical event, with a high expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut [3] - Monitoring the developments regarding the U.S. government shutdown is essential for understanding potential market impacts [4] - Continued attention to geopolitical risks, particularly in Venezuela and the Middle East, is necessary [5]