Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In July 2025, the total social financing (社融) stock increased by 9.0% year-on-year, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[2] - Loan stock grew by 6.9% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[2] - M1 increased by 5.6% year-on-year, rising by 1 percentage point from the previous month[2] - M2 grew by 8.8% year-on-year, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month[2] Group 2: Contributing Factors - Government bond issuance contributed 0.14 percentage points to the year-on-year growth of social financing stock in July 2025, with net financing of government bonds reaching 8.9 trillion yuan in the first seven months, an increase of 4.88 trillion yuan year-on-year[2] - Direct financing channels for enterprises improved, with net financing from corporate bonds and domestic stock financing exceeding last year's levels, supported by macro policies for technology innovation[2] - The "anti-involution" policy is deepening, focusing on the orderly exit of backward production capacity, which may impact loan demand from small and medium-sized enterprises[2] Group 3: Credit Structure and Risks - As of the end of July, inclusive small and micro loans reached 35.05 trillion yuan, growing by 11.8% year-on-year, while medium to long-term loans for manufacturing stood at 14.79 trillion yuan, up 8.5% year-on-year[2] - Risks include potential underperformance of growth stabilization policies, escalation of geopolitical conflicts, and unexpected severity of overseas economic downturns[11]

5月14日，央行发布最新金融数据，4月末，广义货币(M2)余额325.17万亿元，同比增长8%。央行表 示，观察货币政策的效果要结合实体经济实际运行状况综合研判。市场权威专家表示，将金融数据与 GDP等实体经济指标进行对比分析，能进一步显现货币政策的效果，更全面地衡量央行货币政策的支持 力度。比如，M2/GDP，已经从2019年末的197%上升到2024年末的232%，5年时间提升了35个百分点。 该专家表示，将M2增速作为货币政策的观测性指标，有其内在合理性，随着金融深化和经济结构转 型，市场研究表明货币总量与经济增长的相关性在减弱，主要发达经济体也都经历过逐步淡化并放弃盯 住总量指标的过程。(第一财经) ...

中金研究 本文旨在从金融视角对美国过去40-50年的房地产发展历程做一个框架式的回溯，针对资产价格、债务结构、融资模式、工具内涵、企业形态等方面做 一个纲要式的分析，为我们看待与展望中国的问题提供一些启示。 点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 过去40余年美国房地产债务扩张主要是利率长期下行这一宏观范式的结果。 我们考证发现：1）房价从可负担性的角度呈现周期变化，利率中枢下行带来 的可负担性提升是房价长期上行的主要原因；2）租售比水平长期和利率同步趋势下行，带动住房估值水平提升；3）鉴于住房自有率和成交量的长期变化 不明显，房地产债务扩张主要由长周期维度房价上涨（且跑赢通胀）驱动，因此也可以认为是过去全球化环境中宏观范式的一种体现。往前看，这种范式 可能会变化，房价对通胀的超额收益可能收敛。 融资结构的变化与流动性供给机制的创新有参考意义。 历轮房地产市场调整都可能会催生流动性供给机制的创新，因此从金融角度看美国近代房地产 史，也是一部金融创新与变迁史。主要的脉络，是从1970年代计起，直接融资在房地产债务中的占比持续扩大，50余年下来间接融资和直接融资的结构完 成了一次倒置（从大约七三开转换为三七开） ...