六大积极因素协同显现，共同构成中国资本市场中长期价值的坚实底座。 "马作的卢飞快，弓如霹雳弦惊。"置身百年变局纵深演进、全球资本版图加速重构的时代背景下，中国 资本市场立足时与势，兼顾质与量，赋能实体经济的发展空间持续拓宽，服务高质量发展的时代价值愈 发凸显。六大积极因素协同显现，共同构成中国资本市场中长期价值的坚实底座。2026年，中国资本市 场稳健发展的底色更加鲜明、韧性持续提升，在服务高质量发展的实践中大有可为。守正笃行、行稳致 远，中国资本市场的2026年值得期待。 一是估值水平的潜在空间。从全球资产配置的视角观察，中国资本市场在估值层面的相对优势，既体现 在静态估值水平上，也体现在动态估值修复节奏之中。在静态层面，中国权益资产整体估值仍处于相对 偏低区间，截至2026年1月30日，沪深300指数与恒生指数的市盈率分别约为14.18倍和12.47倍。这不仅 明显低于美股主要指数，也低于欧洲、日本等主要市场，体现出估值中枢潜力空间的相对优势。在动态 层面，2023年以来，随着新冠疫情冲击的逐步消退，主要经济体货币政策转向，在盈利预期修复和风险 偏好回升的共同作用下，全球资本市场普遍经历了一轮估值修复过程 ...

Group 1: Current Trends in Financial Assets - "Deposit migration" is a hot topic as residents shift funds from traditional savings to diversified financial assets due to declining deposit rates and increasing wealth management awareness[1] - In comparison to the US, Japan, Germany, the UK, and South Korea, cash and deposits account for over 30% of residents' financial assets in most countries, with Japan and South Korea around 50%[3] - By 2030, it is projected that Chinese residents' holdings of cash and deposits, stocks and equity, funds, insurance, and bonds will grow by 42%, 43%, 22%, 61%, and 16% respectively compared to 2025 estimates[3] Group 2: Factors Influencing Asset Allocation - The proportion of equity assets is generally positively correlated with per capita GDP, with China's current equity asset share at 31%[3] - Aging populations increase the share of low-risk assets, as older individuals tend to prefer safer investments[3] - Low interest rates encourage residents to seek higher returns, leading to increased risk asset allocation, though the exact path remains uncertain[3] Group 3: International Comparisons and Predictions - China's financial asset structure is expected to align more closely with the Japanese and German models rather than the Anglo-American model, emphasizing lower risk preferences[3] - China's overseas financial asset holdings have significant growth potential, with current levels being over five times lower than those in developed countries[3] - The financial deepening process in China may slow down, with financial asset growth converging towards GDP growth rates due to various economic factors[3]

Group 1 - iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF attracted $5.8 billion in capital over four months following the "liberation day" policy announcement, with a 5.8% increase in assets, outperforming the 3.3% growth of the Vanguard developed markets ETF [2] - Emerging market policymakers have demonstrated market discipline, maintaining sustainable debt levels compared to developed markets, with countries like Brazil and India having sovereign debt to GDP ratios lower by 15-20 percentage points than G7 nations [2] - Emerging markets have made significant progress in financial deepening, industrial upgrading, and institutional optimization over the past decade, with Vietnam's manufacturing value-added to GDP rising to 25%, an 8 percentage point increase since 2015 [2] Group 2 - The expectation of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts has led to a weakening dollar index, creating a favorable environment for the revaluation of emerging market assets [3] - Emerging market stocks have shown a median excess return of 8%-10% relative to developed markets during periods of dollar decline, with the performance gap between emerging and developed market indices widening to 5% for the 2024-2025 cycle [3] - Institutional investors are reassessing emerging markets, with current risk premiums for emerging market stocks exceeding those of developed markets by 150 basis points, compared to a historical average of 100 basis points [3]

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In July 2025, the total social financing (社融) stock increased by 9.0% year-on-year, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[2] - Loan stock grew by 6.9% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[2] - M1 increased by 5.6% year-on-year, rising by 1 percentage point from the previous month[2] - M2 grew by 8.8% year-on-year, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month[2] Group 2: Contributing Factors - Government bond issuance contributed 0.14 percentage points to the year-on-year growth of social financing stock in July 2025, with net financing of government bonds reaching 8.9 trillion yuan in the first seven months, an increase of 4.88 trillion yuan year-on-year[2] - Direct financing channels for enterprises improved, with net financing from corporate bonds and domestic stock financing exceeding last year's levels, supported by macro policies for technology innovation[2] - The "anti-involution" policy is deepening, focusing on the orderly exit of backward production capacity, which may impact loan demand from small and medium-sized enterprises[2] Group 3: Credit Structure and Risks - As of the end of July, inclusive small and micro loans reached 35.05 trillion yuan, growing by 11.8% year-on-year, while medium to long-term loans for manufacturing stood at 14.79 trillion yuan, up 8.5% year-on-year[2] - Risks include potential underperformance of growth stabilization policies, escalation of geopolitical conflicts, and unexpected severity of overseas economic downturns[11]

Core Insights - The central bank reported that as of the end of April, the broad money supply (M2) reached 325.17 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8% [1] - Experts suggest that analyzing financial data in conjunction with GDP and other economic indicators can provide a clearer picture of the effectiveness of monetary policy [1] - The M2 to GDP ratio has increased from 197% at the end of 2019 to 232% by the end of 2024, marking a 35 percentage point rise over five years [1] - The use of M2 growth rate as an observational indicator for monetary policy is deemed reasonable, as the correlation between money supply and economic growth is weakening [1] Financial Data Analysis - The broad money supply (M2) stood at 325.17 trillion yuan as of April, with an 8% increase year-on-year [1] - The M2 to GDP ratio has risen significantly, indicating a growing divergence between monetary supply and economic output [1] - The trend of diminishing correlation between total money supply and economic growth is noted, aligning with patterns observed in major developed economies [1]

中金研究 本文旨在从金融视角对美国过去40-50年的房地产发展历程做一个框架式的回溯，针对资产价格、债务结构、融资模式、工具内涵、企业形态等方面做 一个纲要式的分析，为我们看待与展望中国的问题提供一些启示。 点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 过去40余年美国房地产债务扩张主要是利率长期下行这一宏观范式的结果。 我们考证发现：1）房价从可负担性的角度呈现周期变化，利率中枢下行带来 的可负担性提升是房价长期上行的主要原因；2）租售比水平长期和利率同步趋势下行，带动住房估值水平提升；3）鉴于住房自有率和成交量的长期变化 不明显，房地产债务扩张主要由长周期维度房价上涨（且跑赢通胀）驱动，因此也可以认为是过去全球化环境中宏观范式的一种体现。往前看，这种范式 可能会变化，房价对通胀的超额收益可能收敛。 融资结构的变化与流动性供给机制的创新有参考意义。 历轮房地产市场调整都可能会催生流动性供给机制的创新，因此从金融角度看美国近代房地产 史，也是一部金融创新与变迁史。主要的脉络，是从1970年代计起，直接融资在房地产债务中的占比持续扩大，50余年下来间接融资和直接融资的结构完 成了一次倒置（从大约七三开转换为三七开） ...