投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 联系人 李婷、黄蕾 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 主要品种观点 宏观：美国初申失业金具有韧劲，A 股行情迎来普涨 商品日报 20251225 海外方面，美国就业端仍具韧性，初申回落至 21.4 万人，持续申领虽升至 192.3 万人但 明显低于年内高位，裁员维持低位。与此同时，政策讨论前移，贝森特主张在通胀稳固回到 2%后，重新审视通胀目标，考虑由点目标转向区间目标，并批评量化宽松放大不平等，主 张央行退居幕后、缩小干预，并与财政部协同配合。圣诞假期前夕，美股普涨，道指和标普 500 收盘创下历史新高，美元指数升至 97.9，10Y 美债利率回落至 4.13%，金价在突破 4500 关口后调整至 4480，铜价六连涨、盘中创下接近 12300 美元的历史新高，油价微跌。 国内方面，北京楼市新政边际放松需求端约束：下调非京籍购房社保/个税年限要求， 并对多子女家庭给予额外购房额度支持，旨在稳定改善性与结构性住房需求、托底地产。央 行四季度例会明确继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，强化逆周期与跨周期调节，综合运用工具、 把握节奏与力度，保持流动性充裕， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic environment, highlighting the Chinese central bank's continued implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy and the recent adjustments in the Beijing housing market to support home purchases by non-local families and families with multiple children [1][8]. Group 1: Financial Markets - The U.S. stock indices rose, with the defense and military sector leading gains, while the agriculture sector lagged behind. The market turnover reached 1.90 trillion yuan, and the financing balance increased by 14.859 billion yuan to 25,145.96 billion yuan [2][12]. - The A-share market is expected to maintain a long-term bullish trend supported by policy backing, capital influx, and industrial empowerment, with the upcoming Federal Reserve rate cut likely to enhance global capital flow and risk appetite [2][12]. Group 2: Oil Market - Saudi Arabia's average daily crude oil exports reached 7.1 million barrels in October, the highest level in two and a half years, up from 6.46 million barrels in September [3][15]. - The overall trend in the oil market remains downward, influenced by geopolitical tensions and potential sanctions on Russia's energy sector [3][15]. Group 3: Agricultural Products - Palm oil prices are expected to improve due to better export data from Malaysia, while soybean oil faces downward pressure from high production expectations [4][30]. - The domestic soybean market is experiencing a supply surplus, with auction prices declining, leading to a bearish outlook for soybean meal prices [29][30]. Group 4: Metals - Gold and silver prices are stabilizing, supported by lower-than-expected U.S. inflation data, which may provide room for further interest rate cuts [20]. - Copper prices are under pressure due to tight supply conditions and fluctuating demand from various sectors, including automotive and construction [21]. Group 5: Shipping Index - The European shipping index has shown a slight decline, with expectations for price stabilization as shipping companies adjust their pricing strategies ahead of the upcoming Chinese New Year [33].