Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic environment, highlighting the Chinese central bank's continued implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy and the recent adjustments in the Beijing housing market to support home purchases by non-local families and families with multiple children [1][8]. Group 1: Financial Markets - The U.S. stock indices rose, with the defense and military sector leading gains, while the agriculture sector lagged behind. The market turnover reached 1.90 trillion yuan, and the financing balance increased by 14.859 billion yuan to 25,145.96 billion yuan [2][12]. - The A-share market is expected to maintain a long-term bullish trend supported by policy backing, capital influx, and industrial empowerment, with the upcoming Federal Reserve rate cut likely to enhance global capital flow and risk appetite [2][12]. Group 2: Oil Market - Saudi Arabia's average daily crude oil exports reached 7.1 million barrels in October, the highest level in two and a half years, up from 6.46 million barrels in September [3][15]. - The overall trend in the oil market remains downward, influenced by geopolitical tensions and potential sanctions on Russia's energy sector [3][15]. Group 3: Agricultural Products - Palm oil prices are expected to improve due to better export data from Malaysia, while soybean oil faces downward pressure from high production expectations [4][30]. - The domestic soybean market is experiencing a supply surplus, with auction prices declining, leading to a bearish outlook for soybean meal prices [29][30]. Group 4: Metals - Gold and silver prices are stabilizing, supported by lower-than-expected U.S. inflation data, which may provide room for further interest rate cuts [20]. - Copper prices are under pressure due to tight supply conditions and fluctuating demand from various sectors, including automotive and construction [21]. Group 5: Shipping Index - The European shipping index has shown a slight decline, with expectations for price stabilization as shipping companies adjust their pricing strategies ahead of the upcoming Chinese New Year [33].

报告日期：2025 年 12 月 22 日 申银万国期货研究所 白银：白银继续上涨。CPI 同比 2.7%，低于预期的 3.1%，核心 CPI 同比 2.6%， 低于预期的 3%。CPI 大幅不及预期，引发市场质疑，但 CPI 整体下行趋势为降息 提供空间。美国 11 月非农数据分化，新增就业人口 6.4 万人，好于市场预期的 5 万人，但失业率上行至 4.6%。疲软的就业数据支持美联储继续降息，流动性宽 松预期仍对贵金属价格形成提振。从长期角度来看，美元信用动摇、央行购金等 因素支撑依然稳固。短期震荡不改贵金属长期上行趋势。 铝：夜盘沪铝上涨 0.93%。美国 11 月核心 CPI 同比上涨 2.6%，创下 2021 年初以 来最慢增速，低于市场预期的 3%，整体 CPI 同比上涨 2.7%，低于预期的 3.1%， 但这份通胀报告的可靠性受到市场质疑，对短期市场影响相对有限，宏观层面可 能更多关注点在于就业的衰退风险和后续美联储降息预期的节奏。中短期电解铝 供应端未见明显扰动，目前电解铝新建产能产量释放仍需一定时间，12 月份产 量增长有限，需求面由于今年春节相对偏晚，尽管下游开工率出现边际下滑迹象， 需求 ...

首席点评： 强者 恒强，金银闪亮 国常会要求，要靠前发力抓落实，确保 " 十五五 " 开好局、起好步。海南封关首日，三亚免税大卖 1.18 亿元，进店客流同比增超 60% 。日本央行加息后，全球债市价格齐跌。法国预算案谈判破裂， 30 年期 法债收益率创 2009 年来新高。美联储 " 三把手 " 称不急于降息，美债收益率加速反弹。沃勒在美联储 主席面试中表现 " 出色 " 。金银反弹，银铜齐创历史新高，期银盘中涨近 4% ；伦铜时隔一周又收创新 高，一周涨超 3% ；原油盘中涨超 1% ，连续三日反弹、仍连跌两周 。 重点品种：股指， 白银，铝 股指： 美国三大指数上涨，上一交易日股指上涨，商贸零售板块领涨，银行板块领跌，市场成交额 1.75 万亿元。资金方面， 12 月 18 日融资余额减少 33.24 亿元至 24825.56 亿元。在制度进一步完善、资 金再度扩容、产业持续赋能等多重维度利好下， A 股的长牛慢牛格局有望得到巩固，形成 " 政策托 底、资金护航、产业驱动 " 的三重共振。 12 月美联储如期降息有望再度提升全球资本流向与风险偏 好，资本市场持续改革将进一步巩固慢牛基础。随着 12 月重 ...