Core Viewpoint - The article discusses U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra's suggestion for significant adjustments to the Federal Reserve's policy framework, including the introduction of an inflation "range" system and the potential elimination of the widely watched interest rate "dot plot" [3][4][7]. Group 1: Proposed Changes to Federal Reserve Policy - Becerra advocates for a shift from a fixed inflation target of 2% to a more flexible range system, such as 1.5% to 2.5% or 1% to 3%, once inflation is under control [4][7]. - He criticizes the current use of the "dot plot" as a communication tool, suggesting it may be abolished to reduce market dependence on short-term interest rate predictions [7][8]. Group 2: Critique of Quantitative Easing - Becerra harshly criticizes the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing (QE) policies, labeling them as an "engine of inequality" that has exacerbated wealth disparities by artificially inflating asset prices [8]. - He argues that large-scale asset purchases should be limited to emergency situations and not be a long-term strategy, highlighting that the Fed faces approximately $100 billion in annual losses from high-priced bond purchases [8]. Group 3: Coordination with Fiscal Policy - Becerra emphasizes the need for closer coordination between the Federal Reserve and the Treasury, suggesting that if the Treasury demonstrates a commitment to controlling deficits, the Fed should lower interest rates to facilitate fiscal tightening [10]. - He envisions a future economic landscape where fiscal and monetary policies work in tandem, aiming to reduce the budget deficit to 3% of GDP by 2026 [10].

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 联系人 李婷、黄蕾 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 主要品种观点 宏观：美国初申失业金具有韧劲，A 股行情迎来普涨 商品日报 20251225 海外方面，美国就业端仍具韧性，初申回落至 21.4 万人，持续申领虽升至 192.3 万人但 明显低于年内高位，裁员维持低位。与此同时，政策讨论前移，贝森特主张在通胀稳固回到 2%后，重新审视通胀目标，考虑由点目标转向区间目标，并批评量化宽松放大不平等，主 张央行退居幕后、缩小干预，并与财政部协同配合。圣诞假期前夕，美股普涨，道指和标普 500 收盘创下历史新高，美元指数升至 97.9，10Y 美债利率回落至 4.13%，金价在突破 4500 关口后调整至 4480，铜价六连涨、盘中创下接近 12300 美元的历史新高，油价微跌。 国内方面，北京楼市新政边际放松需求端约束：下调非京籍购房社保/个税年限要求， 并对多子女家庭给予额外购房额度支持，旨在稳定改善性与结构性住房需求、托底地产。央 行四季度例会明确继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，强化逆周期与跨周期调节，综合运用工具、 把握节奏与力度，保持流动性充裕， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic environment, highlighting the Chinese central bank's continued implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy and the recent adjustments in the Beijing housing market to support home purchases by non-local families and families with multiple children [1][8]. Group 1: Financial Markets - The U.S. stock indices rose, with the defense and military sector leading gains, while the agriculture sector lagged behind. The market turnover reached 1.90 trillion yuan, and the financing balance increased by 14.859 billion yuan to 25,145.96 billion yuan [2][12]. - The A-share market is expected to maintain a long-term bullish trend supported by policy backing, capital influx, and industrial empowerment, with the upcoming Federal Reserve rate cut likely to enhance global capital flow and risk appetite [2][12]. Group 2: Oil Market - Saudi Arabia's average daily crude oil exports reached 7.1 million barrels in October, the highest level in two and a half years, up from 6.46 million barrels in September [3][15]. - The overall trend in the oil market remains downward, influenced by geopolitical tensions and potential sanctions on Russia's energy sector [3][15]. Group 3: Agricultural Products - Palm oil prices are expected to improve due to better export data from Malaysia, while soybean oil faces downward pressure from high production expectations [4][30]. - The domestic soybean market is experiencing a supply surplus, with auction prices declining, leading to a bearish outlook for soybean meal prices [29][30]. Group 4: Metals - Gold and silver prices are stabilizing, supported by lower-than-expected U.S. inflation data, which may provide room for further interest rate cuts [20]. - Copper prices are under pressure due to tight supply conditions and fluctuating demand from various sectors, including automotive and construction [21]. Group 5: Shipping Index - The European shipping index has shown a slight decline, with expectations for price stabilization as shipping companies adjust their pricing strategies ahead of the upcoming Chinese New Year [33].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Bessent, supports a reevaluation of the Federal Reserve's inflation target once inflation stabilizes at 2%, suggesting a shift to a range-based target [1][4] Group 1: Proposed Changes to Federal Reserve Policy - Bessent criticizes the current fixed inflation target and advocates for a more flexible range, such as 1.5%-2.5% or 1%-3%, arguing that economic systems are complex and nonlinear [1][4] - He suggests the potential elimination of the "dot plot" tool used for guiding market expectations on interest rates, aiming to reduce market dependency on short-term predictions [3][4] - Bessent indicates that the new Federal Reserve chair may favor a reduction in the Fed's role, moving away from being the central focus of economic policy [3][4][6] Group 2: Critique of Quantitative Easing - Bessent labels quantitative easing as an "engine of inequality," asserting that it has artificially inflated asset prices and widened the wealth gap between asset holders and wage earners [5][6] - He argues that large-scale asset purchases should be limited to emergency situations, contrasting current practices with historical norms where central banks would remit profits to the Treasury [5][6] Group 3: Coordination Between Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Bessent emphasizes the need for closer collaboration between the Federal Reserve and the Treasury, suggesting that if the Treasury demonstrates commitment to controlling deficits, the Fed should lower interest rates to support fiscal tightening [7] - He envisions a future economic landscape where Wall Street and Main Street are integrated, proposing initiatives like providing investment funds for newborns to enhance financial literacy [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent's suggestions for significant adjustments to the Federal Reserve's policy framework, including the introduction of an inflation "range" instead of a fixed target and the potential elimination of the widely watched interest rate "dot plot" [1][6]. Group 1: Proposed Changes to Federal Reserve Policy - Bessent advocates for a reduction in the Federal Reserve's intervention in the economy, suggesting a return to a more traditional behind-the-scenes role and improved policy coordination with the Treasury [2][9]. - He emphasizes that while the inflation target of 2% should not be adjusted until inflation is under control, he supports the introduction of a flexible "range" concept for future targets [2][8]. - Bessent criticizes the current use of the "dot plot" as a tool for guiding market expectations on interest rates, indicating that it may be abolished under new leadership to reduce market dependency on short-term rate predictions [6][8]. Group 2: Critique of Quantitative Easing and Economic Inequality - Bessent harshly criticizes the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing (QE) policies, labeling them as an "engine of inequality" that has exacerbated wealth disparities by artificially inflating asset prices [10]. - He argues that large-scale asset purchases should be limited to emergency situations and not used as a long-term strategy, highlighting that the Fed currently faces approximately $100 billion in annual losses due to high-priced bond purchases [10]. Group 3: Coordination Between Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Bessent calls for closer cooperation between the Federal Reserve and the Treasury, suggesting that if the Treasury demonstrates a commitment to controlling deficits, the Fed should lower interest rates to facilitate fiscal tightening [12]. - He envisions a future economic landscape where Wall Street and Main Street are integrated, proposing initiatives like the "Trump accounts" to provide investment funds for newborns to enhance financial literacy and equity ownership [12].