Core Insights - The report highlights that the electricity reform continues to deepen, and the green methanol market is on the rise [1][3] - In 2025, coal prices remained low, benefiting thermal power companies, while hydropower and nuclear power sectors showed stable operations [4][6] - The report emphasizes the investment potential in various segments of the utility industry, including thermal, hydropower, nuclear, and green energy [4][6] Thermal Power - The comprehensive electricity price for thermal power is expected to remain stable, enhancing the sector's profitability [6] - Coal prices are projected to maintain a low and fluctuating trend in 2026, with improvements in revenue structure due to rising capacity prices [6][53] - The report suggests focusing on regions with smaller electricity price reductions and companies with nationwide layouts to capture stable profits [57][63] Hydropower - The report indicates that large hydropower projects have significant dividend value, especially under low-interest conditions [78] - The construction of hydropower stations in the Lancang and Yarlung Tsangpo rivers is expected to enhance operational flexibility and profitability [75][79] Nuclear Power - The approval of new nuclear power units has become normalized, with a significant number of units under construction and planned for future operation [82][87] - The report notes that the marketization of nuclear power is increasing, with a growing proportion of market transactions [90][93] Green Energy - The report discusses the recovery of green energy installations and the impact of electricity reform on investment value [4][6] - The demand for green methanol is expected to surge due to the International Maritime Organization's (IMO) net-zero framework, which aims for significant emissions reductions by 2050 [105][114] - The report highlights the strong demand for green methanol, with a projected annual demand of approximately 1,107.3 million tons from newly adopted methanol-fueled vessels [115] Waste Incineration - The waste incineration sector is entering a mature phase, with an increase in cash flow and potential for higher dividend payouts [116][121] - The report notes that several companies have committed to long-term dividend plans, indicating a positive outlook for returns [121][124] - The expansion into Southeast Asia is highlighted as a growth opportunity for waste incineration companies [124]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][3] Core Insights - The first large-scale "CO2 + Green Hydrogen" methanol production project in China has been initiated, with a significant contract signed by Huadian Technology for the supply of core equipment, indicating a strategic opportunity in the green methanol equipment market, which is expected to exceed 10 billion annually [3][9] - By 2030, China's green methanol production capacity is projected to reach approximately 10 million tons, with an average annual increase of 2 million tons [4][7] - The investment in green methanol equipment is estimated to reach 13 billion annually from 2026 to 2030, with specific allocations for CO2 processing and methanol synthesis equipment, as well as hydrogen and storage tank investments [4][7] Summary by Sections Project Announcement - On December 19, Huadian Technology announced a major contract worth 815 million (including tax) to supply equipment for a 450,000 kW wind power hydrogen production coupled with green methanol project in Liaoning [3][5] Market Potential - The green methanol equipment market is expected to reach an annual investment of 13 billion, with specific annual investments of approximately 2.1 billion for CO2 processing and methanol synthesis equipment, and 800 million for hydrogen and storage tank equipment [4][7][8] - The annual demand for electrolyzers in the green methanol industry is projected to be 2 GW, corresponding to an annual investment of 10.1 billion for hydrogen systems and supporting facilities [4][7] Project Details - The Liaoning Huadian project is the first large-scale "Green Hydrogen + CO2" methanol production project in China, with a total investment of 3.945 billion, expected to produce 100,000 tons of green methanol and 19,000 tons of green hydrogen annually [8]

Core Points - The National Development and Reform Commission has released a draft implementation plan aimed at establishing minimum consumption targets for renewable energy and improving the consumption guarantee mechanism for renewable energy electricity [1][2] - The plan includes a systematic assessment of non-electric renewable energy consumption, marking a significant expansion in the scope of renewable energy consumption promotion [2] Group 1: Renewable Energy Consumption Targets - The draft outlines minimum consumption targets for renewable energy, categorized into electricity and non-electric consumption [1] - Non-electric consumption targets encompass renewable energy applications such as heating, hydrogen production, and biofuels [1] Group 2: Implementation and Monitoring - The plan specifies methods for calculating the completion of non-electric renewable energy consumption targets, using thermal energy as a standard for accounting [1] - The State Council's energy authorities will monitor and evaluate the progress of these targets in key energy-consuming industries [1] Group 3: Industry Opportunities - The new regulations present significant opportunities for non-electric renewable energy developers, particularly in solar thermal utilization, biomass heating, and geothermal energy [2] - The emphasis on various renewable energy applications is expected to create clear market demand, driving growth in the non-electric renewable energy sector [2]

Core Viewpoint - The green hydrogen and ammonia industry is entering a significant strategic opportunity period due to national policies promoting the increase of renewable energy non-electric consumption and the development of the green hydrogen and ammonia industry [1][2] Group 1: Policy Developments - The National Development and Reform Commission released a draft implementation plan for the minimum proportion target of renewable energy consumption and the responsibility weight system for renewable energy power consumption [1] - The plan includes mandatory assessments for renewable energy non-electric consumption, marking a shift in energy management focus from solely electricity to a multi-energy collaborative consumption model [2] Group 2: Market Implications - The inclusion of green hydrogen and ammonia as a compliant path in the policy creates unprecedented access for the industry, enhancing market demand and expectations [2] - The establishment of minimum non-electric consumption targets for provincial regions and key energy-consuming enterprises, along with punitive measures, creates a systematic market demand for green hydrogen and ammonia [2] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Companies to watch in the green hydrogen and ammonia sector include Jin Feng Technology (002202.SZ), Yunda Co., Ltd. (300772.SZ), Sany Renewable Energy (688349.SH), Hewei Electric (603063.SH), and Huadian Technology (601226.SH) [1]

Core Points - The National Development and Reform Commission released a draft implementation plan for renewable energy consumption minimum ratio targets and electricity consumption responsibility weight system, marking a significant step in regulating renewable energy consumption [1] - The plan systematically incorporates non-electric renewable energy consumption into minimum ratio assessments, addressing structural issues in renewable energy demand, particularly in high-energy and high-carbon emission industries [2] - The introduction of green hydrogen, ammonia, and methanol as alternatives is highlighted as a solution for industries like steel and chemicals to reduce carbon emissions effectively [2][3] Summary by Sections - **Renewable Energy Policy** - The implementation plan establishes minimum consumption ratio targets for renewable energy and introduces a responsibility weight system for electricity consumption [1] - It sets non-electric renewable energy consumption targets, indicating a broader approach to renewable energy regulation [1] - **Industry Impact** - The policy is expected to drive the green transformation of high-energy industries, particularly in steel and chemical sectors, by promoting the adoption of green hydrogen technologies [2][3] - The plan outlines specific accounting methods for green hydrogen, ammonia, and methanol, counting their consumption as part of energy consumption metrics [2] - **Market Opportunities** - The shift towards green hydrogen and related products is anticipated to create new growth opportunities in the industry, especially for suppliers of core equipment like electrolyzers and companies leading in green methanol project investments and process innovations [3]