可控核聚变产业化
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可控核聚变政策陆续颁布,产业化进程有望加速
Ping An Securities· 2026-01-11 12:35
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (预计6个月内,行业指数表现强于市场表现5%以上) [40] Core Insights - The support policies for controllable nuclear fusion are being issued continuously, which is expected to accelerate the industrialization process. The global fusion power generation is projected to increase from 2 TWh in 2035 to 375 TWh in 2050, and nearly 25,000 TWh by 2100. The share of fusion in the global power structure is expected to reach 15% by 2075 and 27% by 2100 [3][11] - The global nuclear fusion industry value is expected to grow to $843.5 billion by 2040, indicating a vast market potential. The industry has been included in several national planning documents, such as the "2030 Carbon Peak Action Plan" and the "14th Five-Year Plan for Modern Energy System" [3][17] - The recent promulgation of the "Atomic Energy Law" in September 2025 provides legal support for the development of controllable nuclear fusion, reducing regulatory uncertainties and promoting the long-term sustainable development of fusion energy in China [6][8] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The semiconductor industry index rose by 10.61% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 7.82 percentage points. Since the beginning of 2025, the semiconductor industry index has increased by 61.48%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 40.54 percentage points [31] - The controllable nuclear fusion has been recognized as a key low-carbon frontier technology in national policies, with various supportive measures being implemented [8][6] Market Forecast - According to ITEA, fusion power generation is expected to reach 375 TWh by 2050 and nearly 25,000 TWh by 2100, with a significant increase in its share of the global power structure [11] - Precedence Research forecasts that the global nuclear fusion market value will reach $4.72 trillion by 2030 and $843.5 billion by 2040, with a CAGR of 6% from 2030 to 2040 [17]
关注核聚变、AI基建、高端机床等板块投资机会 | 投研报告
Zhong Guo Neng Yuan Wang· 2025-12-16 04:02
Group 1: Mechanical Equipment Industry Overview - The mechanical equipment industry rose by 1.79% during the week of December 8-12, 2025, ranking 5th among 31 primary industries [1][2] - Sub-industries performance: specialized equipment (+3.34%), general equipment (+2.72%), rail transit equipment (+0.37%), engineering machinery (+0.19%), and automation equipment (-0.12%) [1][2] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The market risk appetite is expected to improve following the completion of the third-quarter report disclosures, suggesting a focus on technology growth and cyclical recovery [2] - Recommended sectors include technology areas such as PCB equipment, controllable nuclear fusion, humanoid robots, and semiconductor equipment, as well as cyclical sectors like engineering machinery and general equipment recovery [2] Group 3: Semiconductor Industry Developments - The global competition in computing power is intensifying, accelerating the process of self-sufficiency in the semiconductor industry chain [3] - Domestic GPU companies like Moore Threads and Muxi are advancing towards IPOs, while international cloud computing giants like Amazon are iterating advanced self-developed AI chips [3] - The listing of Naxin Micro indicates a rapid push towards domestic replacement across the entire semiconductor industry chain [3] Group 4: Humanoid Robot Industry Progress - The humanoid robot industry is maturing, with clearer commercialization paths as evidenced by competitions and conferences [4] - Companies like Zhiyuan Robot and Galaxy General Robot are completing shareholding reforms, indicating increased industry maturity and the initiation of capital cycles [4] - The industry is entering a critical phase focused on genuine advancements, with 2026 seen as a potential starting point for mass production [4] Group 5: Machine Tool Industry Insights - Japan's machine tool orders have seen continuous growth for five months, with overseas orders increasing by 23.2% year-on-year, driven by capital expenditures in markets like North America, China, and India [5] - Domestic policies are supporting the high-end machine tool sector, with a focus on core component self-research capabilities [5] Group 6: Controlled Nuclear Fusion Developments - The industrialization of controllable nuclear fusion is advancing from research to engineering validation, with significant projects underway [6] - Companies like Hangyang Co. have successfully entered the core systems of fusion devices, indicating structural opportunities in the industry [6] Group 7: Excavator Sales Performance - Excavator sales in November 2025 reached 20,027 units, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%, with domestic sales at 9,842 units (+9.11%) and exports at 10,185 units (+18.8%) [7] - The industry is benefiting from a new round of concentrated replacement cycles and large project initiations, with strong growth potential for leading companies [7] Group 8: Industrial Robot Production Trends - In October 2025, industrial robot production increased by 17.9% year-on-year, driven by government policies encouraging equipment upgrades [8] - The industry may see a reversal of difficulties, with opportunities arising from structural adjustments and diversification of application scenarios [8] Group 9: Forklift Industry Outlook - The Asia International Logistics Technology and Transportation Systems Exhibition showcased advancements in smart equipment and low-carbon technologies, which are expected to positively impact the forklift sector [9] - The forklift industry is experiencing significant sales growth, with ongoing upgrades towards automation and intelligence [9]
可控核聚变或迎产业化加速推进
2025-11-04 01:56
Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **controlled nuclear fusion** industry, particularly focusing on the **BEST project** and its implications for the market. The industry is entering a new phase with accelerated bidding for key components like power supplies and superconducting materials in the second half of the year [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - The **BEST project** has made significant progress, with the successful installation of the **Dewar base** into the main device, marking a new stage for the project [2][3]. - Other notable projects in the controlled nuclear fusion sector include those by **China Nuclear Group** and **Chengdu and Jiuyuan**, which are expected to have more bidding activities next year, impacting the market from 2026 onwards [1][4]. - The **controlled nuclear fusion supply chain** is centered around structural components such as vacuum chambers, divertors, blanket cold screens, magnets, and Dewars, along with upstream materials like low-temperature superconducting wires and tungsten materials [1][5]. - The **module power supply industry** is benefiting from the recovery of defense demand and the growth of AI applications, with the military market projected to reach **59 billion RMB** by 2028 [1][12][13]. - The demand for **AI servers** has significantly increased power consumption, leading to a need for high-performance, high-density, and reliable power supply systems, which in turn accelerates the application of modular and integrated power systems [1][14][16]. Additional Important Insights - The **magnet system** is crucial in controlled nuclear fusion, accounting for approximately **28%** of the experimental pile's value, with a shift towards high-temperature superconductors expected to reduce cooling requirements and costs [1][7]. - The **power supply system** plays a significant role, comprising about **8%** of the overall system, with domestic and international companies likely to secure contracts in upcoming bidding processes [1][8]. - The **controlled nuclear fusion supply chain** includes upstream materials, midstream equipment, and downstream research institutions, with key players identified in each segment [1][9]. - **West Superconducting** is a key supplier of low-temperature superconducting wires, with a projected market value of **500 million RMB** in 2025, despite currently lower market attention [1][10][11]. - The **module power supply industry** is expected to enter a high-growth cycle, driven by defense and AI applications, with the military module power supply market projected to exceed **10 billion RMB** by 2025 and **15 billion RMB** by 2028 [1][12][13]. - The global AI market is anticipated to exceed **11 trillion USD** by 2030, with related supply equipment markets growing even faster, indicating significant investment opportunities [1][17][18]. Conclusion - The controlled nuclear fusion industry is poised for growth with ongoing projects and increasing demand for related technologies. The module power supply sector is also expected to thrive due to rising defense and AI needs, presenting various investment opportunities in the coming years [1][12][13][17].