尽管近期跌破面值的转债再现，但受访人士普遍认为，当前市场系统性风险可控，风险传导范围有限。 "三房转债本身资质偏弱、正股面临压力，其跌破面值更多体现为个体风险定价，而非系统性信用冲击。"排排网 财富研究总监刘有华向证券时报记者表示，当前是阶段性市场调整与结构性信用风险相互叠加的表现，并非全面 长期的趋势。高评级、资质优良的可转债仍有债底支撑，而资质较弱、临近退市的个券则更多反映了信用风险与 退市风险的集中释放。 近年来，随着优质银行转债的批量退出，存量转债信用评级整体呈现弱化趋势。Wind数据显示，截至12月17日， 评级低于AA-级转债的数量有130只，占比31.18%，而转债发行数量较高的2021年和2022年，该比例分别为23.76% 和23.43%。 证券时报记者 王军 近日，在A股市场接连调整背景下，可转债市场再次出现跌破面值情形。 12月16日，在正股下跌3.24%的情况下，三房转债直接跌破面值，成为近段时间以来首只跌破面值的可转债。12月 17日，三房巷的股价上涨0.96%，但三房转债的价格仍下跌0.47%，12月以来的累计跌幅超过10%。 三房转债的接连下跌并非孤立事件。宏图转债、蓝帆转债等在 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in the convertible bond market, particularly the breach of par value by Sanfang Convertible Bond, reflects growing concerns over credit risk and indicates a structural adjustment within the market [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On December 16, Sanfang's stock price fell by 3.24%, leading to a 2.75% drop in the price of Sanfang Convertible Bond, which fell below the par value of 100 yuan, marking it as the first convertible bond to do so in recent times [1][2]. - The cumulative decline of Sanfang Convertible Bond exceeded 10% in December, despite a 1.44% rebound in the stock price on December 17, indicating persistent downward pressure on the bond [2]. - Other low-rated convertible bonds, such as Hongtu and Lanfan, have also seen significant declines, with Lanfan Convertible Bond dropping to 100.33 yuan and Hongtu Convertible Bond reaching a new low of 102.317 yuan [2]. Group 2: Credit Risk and Market Dynamics - The decline in low-rated convertible bonds is attributed to uncertainties regarding the underlying stocks' conversion capabilities and renewed concerns over credit risks, exacerbated by previous downward trends [2][3]. - The market consensus that convertible bonds serve as a safe investment has been challenged, with over a hundred convertible bonds breaching par value, prompting a reevaluation of credit risks and pricing logic [3][4]. - The overall credit rating of convertible bonds has weakened, with 130 bonds rated below AA- as of December 17, accounting for 31.18% of the total, compared to lower percentages in previous years [4][5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite the recent breaches of par value, experts believe that systemic risks remain controllable, and the impact is limited to individual bonds rather than a widespread credit crisis [4][6]. - The market is expected to see a concentration of credit risk and valuation reassessment for low-rated bonds, which may lead to increased pressure on issuers to improve bond terms and cash flow management [6][7]. - Investors are advised to monitor key thresholds for underlying stocks and be vigilant about potential delisting risks as annual reports are released, particularly for bonds nearing default or facing regulatory scrutiny [8].

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in the convertible bond market, highlighted by the first bond falling below par value, reflects concerns over credit risk and indicates a structural adjustment within the market [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On December 16, the stock price of Sanfangxiang fell by 3.24%, leading to its convertible bond price dropping by 2.75% and falling below the par value of 100 yuan, marking it as the first convertible bond to do so in recent times [1][3]. - The decline in Sanfangxiang's convertible bond is part of a broader trend where several low-rated convertible bonds, such as Hongtu and Lanfan, have also seen significant price drops, with Lanfan's bond nearing par value [3][4]. - The market is currently experiencing a phase of adjustment, with weak credit quality bonds facing liquidity risks and a potential for further differentiation among bonds based on credit quality [3][6]. Group 2: Credit Risk and Valuation - The recent phenomenon of convertible bonds falling below par value is attributed to a combination of issuer credit risk pricing, equity market adjustments, and the failure of bond floor support [4][8]. - As of December 17, 130 convertible bonds rated below AA- accounted for 31.18% of the total, indicating a weakening trend in credit ratings compared to previous years [6][7]. - The decline in credit quality is linked to multiple factors, including industry-specific risks, policy adjustments, and the overall market environment, leading to a significant increase in rating downgrades since 2019 [7][8]. Group 3: Investor Considerations - Investors are advised to monitor the financial health of issuers, especially those nearing delisting thresholds, and to pay attention to bond terms such as conversion and redemption rights [10][11]. - The market is expected to see a decrease in the frequency of credit events following a concentrated risk clearing in 2024, with some bonds managing to convert or trigger strong redemptions [11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the recent surge in the convertible bond market is driven by three main factors: strong performance in the equity market, historically low bond yields, and tight supply due to refinancing regulations [1] - The convertible bond market can be viewed as a combination of ordinary bonds and stock call options, providing investors with both fixed income and potential capital appreciation [1][2] - The current support for the convertible bond market is heavily reliant on the equity market's performance, suggesting that if the equity market continues to perform well, convertible bonds may also exhibit upward momentum [1][2] Group 2 - Investors are cautioned against the misconception that high-priced convertible bonds always have downside protection, as their price movements may closely follow the underlying stocks [2] - For high-risk investors, low premium, high elasticity convertible bonds are recommended to construct a balanced investment portfolio aimed at capturing excess returns [2] - The index for convertible bonds and exchangeable bonds is based on a large sample size from the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, using a market capitalization-weighted method to balance index volatility [3]