Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of synthetic rubber is 0, indicating a neutral view [3] 2) Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the price of synthetic rubber is driven up by events, but the upside space is narrowing. In the medium - term, there is still pressure on the fundamentals, and the high supply of butadiene rubber restricts the upside of prices. The fundamentals of butadiene are under pressure but show marginal improvement. The follow - up focus is on the price trend of butadiene in Asia and the change in the explicit inventory of butadiene rubber [3] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For the butadiene rubber main contract (01 contract), the daily closing price increased from 10,310 yuan/ton to 10,685 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 171,287 lots, the open interest decreased by 3,201 lots to 45,603 lots, and the trading volume was 901.657 million yuan [1] - **Spread Data**: The basis of Shandong butadiene - futures main contract decreased from 140 to - 135, the monthly spread (BR12 - BR01) increased from - 95 to - 55. The prices of North China, East China, and South China butadiene remained unchanged. The market price of Shandong butadiene (delivery product) increased by 100 yuan/ton to 10,550 yuan/ton. The prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (model 1502 and 1712) increased by 100 yuan/ton and 50 yuan/ton respectively. The mainstream prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong increased by 225 yuan/ton and 250 yuan/ton respectively [1] - **Fundamentals**: The butadiene rubber operating rate increased by 4.01 percentage points to 76.97%, the theoretical full cost remained unchanged at 9,813 yuan/ton, and the profit remained unchanged at 587 yuan/ton [1] Industry News - The domestic butadiene market rose slightly. Driven by the news of exports, the prices of butadiene and its main downstream products rose in tandem. However, some buyers were still cautious due to the expected fundamentals. The delivery price in the central Shandong region was around 7,450 - 7,550 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in East China was around 7,000 - 7,100 yuan/ton [2] - As of November 26, 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 32,400 tons, an increase of 900 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.95%. Due to sufficient supply of private resources and lack of cost - side driving factors, downstream buyers were determined to lower prices, and the inventory of sample production enterprises and sample trading enterprises both increased [2][3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint from Guotai Junan Futures indicates that the overall trend of synthetic rubber is expected to remain under pressure in the future [1] - Ningzheng Futures anticipates that synthetic rubber prices will continue to exhibit a weak oscillating trend [2] Group 2 - Guotai Junan Futures notes that short-term support for butadiene rubber futures prices is observed due to two main reasons: the widening NR-BR price spread and a slight rebound in the prices of butadiene and butadiene rubber, supported by a temporary improvement in the overall synthetic rubber industry chain's spot transactions [1] - The report highlights that the natural rubber sector remains relatively strong, providing some support for prices, while the upcoming weather-related trading expectations and low warehouse receipt numbers are similar to trading logic observed in late November 2024 [1] - The mid-term outlook for butadiene indicates significant pressure due to high supply, with an increasing inventory pressure as supply growth outpaces demand growth [1] - Ningzheng Futures emphasizes that the raw material side continues to be suppressed by increased domestic supply, while tire manufacturers face shipment pressures and foreign trade orders fall short of expectations, leading to reduced capacity utilization [2] - The report mentions that the price of butadiene is nearing the cost range, and any further decline will depend on a simultaneous drop in crude oil prices [2] - Despite the high profit levels of butadiene rubber and the significant price spread with butadiene, it will take time for this to be corrected [2]

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core View - The upside space for synthetic rubber has narrowed. The fundamentals of butadiene rubber are supported, but the upside space is limited, and it is expected to show a pattern of oscillation with support. The main reason for the current futures price being far below the static valuation of the butadiene rubber fundamentals is the rapid contraction of the NR - BR spread. If the substitution demand weakens in the future, the upward driving force of butadiene rubber and butadiene may significantly decrease, so the futures market is trading weak expectations in advance at the valuation level. [4] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the butadiene rubber main contract decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 12,160 yuan/ton, the trading volume increased by 7,375 lots to 134,239 lots, the open interest decreased by 2,296 lots to 20,487 lots, and the trading volume increased by 41,690 ten thousand yuan to 822,659 ten thousand yuan. [1] - **Spread Data**: The basis of Shandong butadiene - futures main contract increased by 50 to 390; the monthly spread of BR05 - BR06 (private) decreased by 12,340 to - 12,160. The prices of North China, East China, and South China butadiene (private) decreased by 50, 0, and 50 respectively. The market price of Shandong butadiene (delivery product) decreased by 50 to 12,550 yuan/ton. The prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene (model 1502 and 1712) remained unchanged. The mainstream prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong decreased by 50 to 10,850 yuan/ton and 11,350 yuan/ton respectively. [1] - **Fundamentals**: The butadiene operating rate decreased by 1.05 percentage points to 78.4519%. The theoretical full - cost of butadiene remained unchanged at 13,933 yuan/ton, and the profit of butadiene remained unchanged at - 1,233 yuan/ton. [1] 2. Industry News - As of May 14, 2025 (week 20), the inventory of Chinese high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 32,100 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons or 4.26% compared with the previous period. The price of raw material butadiene continued to rise, the production cost of butadiene rubber increased significantly, and with the positive macro news, the spot market price turned to a large premium, and the inventories of sample production enterprises and sample trading enterprises decreased to varying degrees. [1] - The latest inventory of butadiene in East China ports was about 30,870 tons, a significant decrease of 6,030 tons compared with the previous period. Due to limited ship arrivals and normal consumption of downstream raw material inventory, the inventory of sample ports decreased significantly. [4] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of synthetic rubber is 0, indicating a neutral view. The range of trend intensity is an integer in the interval [-2, 2], with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish. [3]