Group 1 - The core viewpoint from Guotai Junan Futures indicates that the overall trend of synthetic rubber is expected to remain under pressure in the future [1] - Ningzheng Futures anticipates that synthetic rubber prices will continue to exhibit a weak oscillating trend [2] Group 2 - Guotai Junan Futures notes that short-term support for butadiene rubber futures prices is observed due to two main reasons: the widening NR-BR price spread and a slight rebound in the prices of butadiene and butadiene rubber, supported by a temporary improvement in the overall synthetic rubber industry chain's spot transactions [1] - The report highlights that the natural rubber sector remains relatively strong, providing some support for prices, while the upcoming weather-related trading expectations and low warehouse receipt numbers are similar to trading logic observed in late November 2024 [1] - The mid-term outlook for butadiene indicates significant pressure due to high supply, with an increasing inventory pressure as supply growth outpaces demand growth [1] - Ningzheng Futures emphasizes that the raw material side continues to be suppressed by increased domestic supply, while tire manufacturers face shipment pressures and foreign trade orders fall short of expectations, leading to reduced capacity utilization [2] - The report mentions that the price of butadiene is nearing the cost range, and any further decline will depend on a simultaneous drop in crude oil prices [2] - Despite the high profit levels of butadiene rubber and the significant price spread with butadiene, it will take time for this to be corrected [2]

Core Viewpoint - The rubber sector experienced a collective decline in prices, primarily influenced by macroeconomic sentiments and expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate adjustments [1][2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Southeast Asia has entered its production peak season, leading to increased supply expectations for the fourth quarter [2]. - Despite the rainy season affecting tapping operations, production is steadily recovering in major domestic and international regions [1][2]. - Domestic natural rubber social inventory was reported at 1.235 million tons, a decrease of 22,000 tons or 1.8% from the previous period [2]. - Demand remains subdued despite entering the traditional consumption peak season, with downstream enterprises purchasing based on need [2][3]. Price Trends and Market Sentiment - The prices of various rubber futures contracts have shown significant declines, with the Shanghai rubber futures contract down 2.08% to 15,570 yuan/ton [1]. - Analysts indicate that the market is currently under dual pressure from high production levels and insufficient inventory reduction [3]. - The overall sentiment in the rubber market is bearish, with expectations of continued price adjustments in the short term [3]. Future Outlook - In the medium to long term, after the production peak season, rubber prices may gradually increase [3]. - The market is advised to monitor the recovery pace of overseas demand and the progress of relevant pilot projects between Thailand and China [3]. - Analysts predict that natural rubber prices will likely remain weak until October, with attention needed on cost support and policy signals [3].