11月21日盘中，合成橡胶期货主力合约弱势震荡，最低下探至10325.0元。截止发稿，合成橡胶主力合 约报10425.0元，跌幅1.60%。 宁证期货 预计合成橡胶价格将继续呈现偏弱震荡走势 国泰君安期货：预计后续合成橡胶趋势整体仍承压 合成橡胶：短期来看，顺丁橡胶期货价格震荡有支撑。主要原因有两点，第一，伴随NR-BR价差走阔 至高位，整体合成橡胶产业链现货成交从上周开始有阶段性好转，丁二烯以及顺丁橡胶价格企稳小幅反 弹。此外，由于装置轮流检修，顺丁橡胶目前整体显性库存处于震荡格局，整体基本面短期偏中性。第 二，近期天然橡胶板块较为坚挺，天然橡胶整体产业链库存结构对价格下方有一定支撑。并且临近11月 下旬，橡胶板块存在天气影响的交易预期以及仓单数量偏低的问题，与2024年11月下旬交易逻辑有相似 之处。中期来看，丁二烯基本面压力仍偏大，带动顺丁橡胶动态下移。丁二烯方面，进入四季度下旬， 高供应压力是主要矛盾，供需双增格局下，供应增速大于需求增速，库存压力逐步增加。丁二烯基本面 驱动短期中性中期向下，在中性现实弱预期格局下现货价格中枢进入低位震荡格局。顺丁橡胶方面，近 两周生产企业库存小幅累库，高加工利润被逐 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rubber sector experienced a collective decline in prices, primarily influenced by macroeconomic sentiments and expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate adjustments [1][2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Southeast Asia has entered its production peak season, leading to increased supply expectations for the fourth quarter [2]. - Despite the rainy season affecting tapping operations, production is steadily recovering in major domestic and international regions [1][2]. - Domestic natural rubber social inventory was reported at 1.235 million tons, a decrease of 22,000 tons or 1.8% from the previous period [2]. - Demand remains subdued despite entering the traditional consumption peak season, with downstream enterprises purchasing based on need [2][3]. Price Trends and Market Sentiment - The prices of various rubber futures contracts have shown significant declines, with the Shanghai rubber futures contract down 2.08% to 15,570 yuan/ton [1]. - Analysts indicate that the market is currently under dual pressure from high production levels and insufficient inventory reduction [3]. - The overall sentiment in the rubber market is bearish, with expectations of continued price adjustments in the short term [3]. Future Outlook - In the medium to long term, after the production peak season, rubber prices may gradually increase [3]. - The market is advised to monitor the recovery pace of overseas demand and the progress of relevant pilot projects between Thailand and China [3]. - Analysts predict that natural rubber prices will likely remain weak until October, with attention needed on cost support and policy signals [3].