瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.31」 合成橡胶市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 行情回顾：本周国内顺丁橡胶供应延续高位水平，除茂名石化与独山子石化装置停车外，其他顺 丁橡胶装置负荷处于高位水平，供应延续充足局面。山东市场顺丁橡胶现货价格区间在10600- 11300元/吨。中石化化销BR9000出厂价格在11100元/吨，中石油各销售公司BR9000出厂价格 在11100-11400元/吨。 行情展望：近期国内顺丁装置停车较少，供应延续高位，价格重心小幅抬升，市场成交集中于套 利商低价采购，贸易商谨慎挺价，但终端采购仍处于偏弱局面，生产企业库存水平提升，贸易企 业库存部分下降，主流供价上调对顺丁橡胶市场价格存在底部支撑，但现货资源充足及临近年末 产销压力影响下，生产企业库存预计维持高位，贸易企业库存预计小幅下降。需求方面，上周国 内轮胎企业灵活排产，部分企业存控产现象，半钢胎企业开工率环比小幅回升，全钢胎企业开工 率环比下降，进入季节性淡季，企业整体出货节奏偏慢，成品库存攀升，产销压力下，部分企业 存停限 ...

瑞达期货研究院 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「周度要点小结」 「2025.12.26」 合成橡胶市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 策略建议： br2602合约短线预计在11150-12000区间波动。 3 行情回顾：本周国内顺丁橡胶供应延续高位水平，除茂名石化与独山子石化装置停车外，其他顺 丁橡胶装置负荷处于高位水平，供应延续充足局面。山东市场顺丁橡胶价格进一步走高，现货价 格区间在10600-11300元/吨。中石化化销BR9000出厂价格在11100元/吨，中石油各销售公司 BR9000出厂价格在11100-11400元/吨。 行情展望：近期国内顺丁装置停车较少，供应延续高位，本周价格重心小幅抬升，市场成交集中 于套利商低价采购，贸易商谨慎挺价，但终端采购仍处于偏弱局面，生产企业库存水平提升，贸 易企业库存部分下降，主流供价上调对顺丁橡胶市场价格存在底部支撑，但现货资源充足及临近 年末产销压力影响下，生产企业库存预计维持高位，贸易企业库存预计小 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Strategy suggestion: The short - term price of the br2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 10,000 - 10,600 [7]. - Market review: This week, the price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market dropped sharply and then rebounded slightly, with the spot price ranging from 9,750 - 10,900 yuan/ton. Sinopec and most sales companies of PetroChina lowered the ex - factory price of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber by 800 yuan/ton in total. The price of raw material butadiene dropped more than expected due to the dual negative impacts of the expected increase in domestic supply and the continuous decline in foreign market negotiation prices, leading to a significant increase in market bearish sentiment [8]. - Market outlook: Most previously shut - down cis - butadiene rubber plants have restarted, and domestic production has recovered. Recently, the supply of raw material butadiene is sufficient and the negotiation price has been falling, continuously dragging down the cost side. Downstream buyers are bargaining, causing the negotiation price of private resources to drop significantly. Some production enterprises' inventory and sample trading enterprises' inventory have decreased. Next week, some plants will restart, and supply is expected to increase slightly. However, due to the expected increase in future domestic supply of the raw material, the cost side of cis - butadiene remains weak, and the situation of downstream terminal buyers firmly bargaining is difficult to change. The inventory of production enterprises and trading enterprises may increase slightly. In terms of demand, the production scheduling of domestic tire maintenance enterprises has returned to the normal level this week, driving a slight increase in overall capacity utilization. Most other enterprises' equipment is operating stably. Next week, most enterprises will maintain stable production to meet order demands. It is heard that an individual enterprise has a maintenance plan in the middle of the month, which may drag down the overall capacity utilization [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - to - Week Highlights - Strategy: The br2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 10,000 - 10,600 [7]. - Market review and outlook: As described in the core viewpoints above [8]. 3.2. Futures Market - Price trend: The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 3.41% [12]. - Position analysis: No specific analysis content provided. - Inter - period spread: As of November 7, the 1 - 2 spread of butadiene rubber was 0 [19]. - Warehouse receipts: As of November 7, the cis - butadiene rubber warehouse receipts were 2,990 tons, unchanged from last week [22]. 3.3. Spot Market - Price: As of November 6, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 10,350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 285 yuan/ton from last week [27]. - Basis: As of November 6, the basis of butadiene rubber was - 5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 170 yuan/ton from last week [27]. 3.4. Upstream Situation - Naphtha and ethylene prices: As of November 6, the CFR intermediate price of naphtha in Japan was 575.5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2.5 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF intermediate price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 740 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 10 US dollars/ton from last week [30]. - Butadiene capacity utilization and inventory: As of November 7, the weekly capacity utilization of butadiene was 70.32%, an increase of 2.32% from last week; the port inventory was 29,800 tons, a decrease of 2,200 tons from last week [34]. 3.5. Industry Situation - Production and capacity utilization: In October 2025, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber production was 137,600 tons, an increase of 7,200 tons from last month. As of November 6, the weekly capacity utilization of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 65.85%, a decrease of 1.1% from last week [37]. - Production profit: As of November 6, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber production profit was 539 yuan/ton, an increase of 118 yuan/ton from last week [40]. - Inventory: As of November 7, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber social inventory was 29,290 tons, a decrease of 1,590 tons from last week; the manufacturer inventory was 25,770 tons, a decrease of 1,430 tons from last week; the trader inventory was 3,520 tons, a decrease of 160 tons from last week [45]. 3.6. Downstream Situation - Tire开工率: As of November 6, the capacity utilization of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.89%, a month - on - month increase of 0.77 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.03 percentage points; the capacity utilization of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.37%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.51 percentage points. The production scheduling of maintenance enterprises has returned to normal, driving a slight increase in overall capacity utilization, and most other enterprises' equipment is operating stably [48]. - Export demand: In September 2025, China's tire export volume was 687,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.57% and a year - on - year increase of 4.05%. From January to September, the cumulative tire export volume was 6.3908 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.88%. Among them, the export volume of passenger car tires was 260,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.28% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.87%. From January to September, the cumulative export volume of passenger car tires was 2.5008 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.26%. The export volume of truck and bus tires was 400,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.86% and a year - on - year increase of 8.74%. From January to September, the cumulative export volume of truck and bus tires was 3.6279 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.67% [51].

目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 瑞达期货研究院 「2025.10.31」 合成橡胶市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 「周度要点小结」 策略建议： br2601合约短线预计在10350-10900区间波动。 3 行情回顾：本周山东市场顺丁橡胶价格延续弱势运行，现货价格区间在10400-11350元/吨。中石 化化销售及中石油多数销售公司下调高顺顺丁橡胶出厂价格200元/吨。原料端外销资源增量叠加 外盘市场价格持续回落，跌幅超出部分业者预期导致市场看空情绪快速升温。 行情展望：前期多数检修顺丁橡胶装置陆续重启，国内产量恢复性提升。近期部分生产企业停车 或准备停车，且原料端大幅走弱导致生产利润逐步修复，带动部分民营生产企业低价出货，本周 生产企业库存及贸易企业库存均有明显下降。短期原料端持续偏空预期影响下，民营资源与两油 资源仍将持续存在明显价差，下游采购等跌心态或仍存，预计生产企业库存水平或继续下降，贸 易企业库存或小幅提升。需求方面，本周国内轮胎企业产能 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The BR2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,150 - 11,600 in the short - term [7]. - The prices of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market in China showed a narrow and weak oscillation this week, with the spot price ranging from 11,450 to 11,800 yuan/ton. The ex - factory prices of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber of Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable [8]. - Most previously shut - down cis - butadiene rubber plants have restarted, and domestic production has recovered. The overall supply of cis - butadiene rubber is sufficient. The external supply of raw material butadiene has increased this week, and there is a lack of positive factors in terms of cost and supply. Some industry players are waiting to see if the ex - factory prices of resources from Sinopec and PetroChina will be lowered. The inventory of producers has slightly increased, while that of traders has decreased. As the National Day holiday approaches, downstream terminals may gradually pick up goods, and the overall inventory level of enterprises is expected to decline slightly [8]. - This week, tire enterprises mostly maintained their previous operating levels to appropriately stock up for post - holiday inventory. The overall operation was mainly adjusted slightly. Some small - scale semi - steel tire sample enterprises entered the National Day holiday maintenance state in advance due to insufficient orders. It is reported that some enterprises plan to start a 5 - 8 - day holiday on September 30 or October 1, which will have a significant impact on the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises next week [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The BR2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,150 - 11,600 in the short - term [7]. - Market review: The prices of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market showed a narrow and weak oscillation, with the spot price ranging from 11,450 to 11,800 yuan/ton. The ex - factory prices of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber of Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable, with the mainstream ex - factory price ranging from 11,700 to 11,800 yuan/ton as of September 25, 2025 [8]. - Market outlook: Supply is sufficient, cost and supply lack positive factors, producer inventory has slightly increased, and trader inventory has decreased. As the holiday approaches, downstream terminals may pick up goods, and overall enterprise inventory is expected to decline slightly. Tire enterprises mostly maintained previous operating levels, with overall slight adjustments. Some small - scale enterprises entered holiday maintenance in advance, which will impact next week's capacity utilization rate [8]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1. Futures Market - Price trend: The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract oscillated and closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 0.13% [12]. - Position analysis: No specific content provided other than the topic of "cis - butadiene rubber top 20 position changes". - Inter - delivery spread: As of September 26, the spread between the 11th and 12th contracts of butadiene rubber was 20 [18]. - Futures warehouse receipts: As of September 26, the cis - butadiene rubber warehouse receipts were 2,670 tons, an increase of 60 tons from last week [21]. 3.2.2. Spot Market - Spot price: As of September 25, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 11,580 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton from last week [25]. - Basis: As of September 25, the basis of butadiene rubber was 35 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from last week [25]. 3.3. Industry Situation 3.3.1. Upstream - Naphtha and ethylene prices: As of September 25, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 608.5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5.58 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 820 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 30 US dollars/ton from last week [28]. - Butadiene capacity utilization and port inventory: As of September 26, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 66.3%, a decrease of 0.48% from last week, and the port inventory was 27,750 tons, an increase of 4,650 tons from last week [31]. 3.3.2. Industry - Cis - butadiene rubber production and capacity utilization: In August 2025, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber production was 135,700 tons, an increase of 16,500 tons from the previous month. As of September 25, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 66.41%, a decrease of 3.32% from last week [34]. - Production profit: As of September 25, the domestic production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 544 yuan/ton, an increase of 114 yuan/ton from last week [37]. - Inventory: As of September 26, the domestic social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 32,300 tons, a decrease of 1,420 tons from last week; the producer inventory was 26,600 tons, an increase of 700 tons from last week; the trader inventory was 5,700 tons, a decrease of 2,120 tons from last week [41]. 3.3.3. Downstream - Tire operating rate: As of September 25, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.64%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.95 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.39%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.27 percentage points. Currently, tire enterprises mostly maintain previous operating levels [44]. - Tire exports: In August 2025, China's tire exports were 769,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.36% and a year - on - year increase of 2.49%. From January to August, the cumulative tire exports were 5.703 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.98% [47]. 3.4. Options Market Analysis No relevant content provided.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The BR2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,380 - 11,800 in the short - term [7]. - Recently, the support from cost and supply has weakened. The futures and mainstream supply prices of butadiene rubber have risen rapidly and then fallen back. Arbitrageurs are actively entering the market, but downstream terminal procurement is negative. The overall inventory of production enterprises has decreased, while that of trading enterprises has slightly increased. Next week, there are expectations of short - term shutdown and maintenance for the butadiene rubber plants of Qixiang Tengda and Maoming Petrochemical, and the butadiene plant of Shandong Yihua is expected to restart. The supply is expected to decrease slightly, but under the weak demand expectation, the inventory of production enterprises may still increase. - In terms of demand, the overall capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tires decreased slightly this week due to the maintenance of individual semi - steel tire enterprises at the end of last month, and that of all - steel tires decreased due to the maintenance of some all - steel tire enterprises. Next week, the resumption of production of maintenance enterprises will drive the overall capacity utilization rate to a certain extent, but there are also individual enterprises planning maintenance at the beginning of the month. The overall capacity utilization rate is expected to be slightly adjusted, and the overall increase space is limited [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Strategy Suggestion**: The BR2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,380 - 11,800 in the short - term [7]. - **Market Review**: The price of butadiene rubber in the Shandong market of domestic cis - butadiene rubber dropped from a high level this week, with the spot price fluctuating in the range of 11,400 - 12,300 yuan/ton. The price of high - cis butadiene rubber of Sinopec Chemical Sales decreased by 400 yuan/ton in total, and that of high - cis butadiene rubber of major sales companies of PetroChina decreased by 100 yuan/ton in total [8]. - **Market Outlook**: The support from cost and supply has weakened recently. The futures and mainstream supply prices of butadiene rubber have risen rapidly and then fallen back. The inventory of production enterprises has decreased overall, while that of trading enterprises has slightly increased. Next week, the supply is expected to decrease slightly, but the inventory of production enterprises may still increase under the weak demand expectation. The overall capacity utilization rate of tires is expected to be slightly adjusted, and the overall increase space is limited [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - The price of the main contract of synthetic rubber futures oscillated and closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 7.73% [12]. - As of August 1, the 9 - 10 spread of butadiene rubber was 10 [19]. - As of August 1, the warehouse receipt of butadiene rubber was 2,290 tons, a decrease of 100 tons compared with last week [22]. - **Spot Market** - As of July 31, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 11,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton compared with last week [27]. - As of July 31, the basis of butadiene rubber was 205 yuan/ton, an increase of 420 yuan/ton compared with last week [27]. 3.3 Industry Conditions - **Upstream** - As of July 31, the CFR intermediate price of naphtha in Japan was reported at 611 US dollars/ton, an increase of 30.5 US dollars/ton compared with last week; the CIF intermediate price of Northeast Asian ethylene was reported at 820 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0 US dollars/ton compared with last week [31]. - As of August 1, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 69.97%, an increase of 0.03% compared with last week; the port inventory of butadiene was 10,400 tons, a decrease of 5,300 tons compared with last week [34]. - **Production and Utilization** - In July 2025, the domestic production of cis - butadiene rubber was 129,200 tons, an increase of 6,700 tons compared with last month [38]. - As of July 31, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 72.46%, an increase of 4.83% compared with last week [38]. - **Production Profit** - As of July 31, the domestic production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 375 yuan/ton, an increase of 65 yuan/ton compared with last week [41]. - **Inventory** - As of August 1, the domestic social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 31,320 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons compared with last week [45]. - As of August 1, the domestic manufacturer inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 23,800 tons, a decrease of 1,050 tons compared with last week; the trader inventory was 7,520 tons, an increase of 50 tons compared with last week [45]. 3.4 Downstream Conditions - **Tire Capacity Utilization** - As of July 31, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.98%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points compared with the previous period and a decrease of 10.19 percentage points compared with the same period last year; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 59.26%, a decrease of 2.97 percentage points compared with the previous period and a decrease of 0.20 percentage points compared with the same period last year [48]. - **Tire Exports** - In June 2025, China's tire export volume was 717,100 tons, a decrease of 5.47% compared with the previous month and a decrease of 7.31% compared with the same period last year. From January to June, China's cumulative tire export volume was 4.1213 million tons, a cumulative increase of 4.34% compared with the same period last year [51]. - In June 2025, the export volume of small passenger car tires was 279,100 tons, a decrease of 3.47% compared with the previous month and a decrease of 11.76% compared with the same period last year. From January to June, the cumulative export volume of small passenger car tires was 1.6144 million tons, a cumulative increase of 1.62% compared with the same period last year [51]. - In June 2025, the export volume of truck and bus tires was 407,200 tons, a decrease of 7.00% compared with the previous month and a decrease of 5.11% compared with the same period last year. From January to June, the cumulative export volume of truck and bus tires was 2.3347 million tons, a cumulative increase of 5.34% compared with the same period last year [51].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the domestic butadiene rubber futures price rebounded, and the spot price in the Shandong market slightly increased, with the price fluctuating between 11,400 - 12,000 yuan/ton. The news and raw material price transmission factors have a certain boost to the supply price and market price of butadiene rubber. The futures market has risen, and the spot market has also tried to raise prices [7]. - Due to the recent geopolitical factors causing the increase in crude oil prices, the market's concern about the increase in butadiene rubber supply price driven by rising production costs is gradually rising. The overall inventory of production enterprises has decreased, while that of trading enterprises has increased. Under the influence of cost factors, the supply price may remain firm, but the downstream terminals clearly resist high prices, and it is expected that the production - sales pressure will be difficult to ease [7]. - In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has fluctuated this week. The enterprise production scheduling has gradually returned to the normal level. Some enterprises have moderately increased production to meet order demands, while a few enterprises have suspended production due to power plant maintenance. In the short - term, the enterprise capacity utilization rate is expected to remain basically stable. The production scheduling of all - steel tire enterprises remains stable, and the resumption of production of semi - steel tire enterprises under maintenance has a certain driving effect on the overall capacity utilization rate [7]. - The br2508 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,300 - 11,920 in the short - term [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The domestic butadiene rubber futures price rebounded, and the spot price in the Shandong market slightly increased, with the price range of 11,400 - 12,000 yuan/ton. The futures market rose, and the spot market tried to raise prices [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Geopolitical factors have led to rising crude oil prices, increasing concerns about rising production costs and supply prices. Production enterprise inventories have decreased, while trading enterprise inventories have increased. The supply price may remain firm, but downstream resistance to high prices is strong, and production - sales pressure is difficult to ease. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises is expected to remain stable [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The br2508 contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,300 - 11,920 in the short - term [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - **Price Trend**: The main contract price of synthetic rubber futures closed up this week, with a weekly increase of 2.32% [11]. - **Position Analysis**: There is no detailed information in the provided content. - **Inter - period Spread**: As of June 20, the 7 - 8 spread of butadiene rubber was 160 [18]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of June 20, the butadiene rubber warehouse receipts were 800 tons, a decrease of 4,370 tons compared with last week [21]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - **Price and Basis**: As of June 19, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 11,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan/ton compared with last week. The basis of butadiene rubber was 80 yuan/ton, a decrease of 435 yuan/ton compared with last week [25]. 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Upstream - **Naphtha and Ethylene Prices**: As of June 19, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 642.63 US dollars/ton, an increase of 22.13 US dollars/ton compared with last week; the CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 830 US dollars/ton, an increase of 40 US dollars/ton compared with last week [28]. - **Butadiene Capacity Utilization and Port Inventory**: As of June 20, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 70.06%, an increase of 1.06% compared with last week; the butadiene port inventory was 28,400 tons, an increase of 7,400 tons compared with last week [31]. 3.3.2 Butadiene Rubber - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: In May 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber production was 139,400 tons, an increase of 17,900 tons compared with last month. As of June 19, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic butadiene rubber was 66.32%, an increase of 1.29% compared with last week [35]. - **Production Profit**: As of June 19, the domestic butadiene rubber production profit was 587 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,163 yuan/ton compared with last week [38]. - **Inventory**: As of June 20, the domestic butadiene rubber social inventory was 33,770 tons, a decrease of 900 tons compared with last week; the manufacturer inventory was 26,950 tons, a decrease of 700 tons compared with last week; the trader inventory was 6,820 tons, an increase of 610 tons compared with last week [43]. 3.3.3 Downstream - **Tire Capacity Utilization**: As of June 19, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.54%, a month - on - month increase of 1.56 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.52 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.39%, a month - on - month increase of 2.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.45 percentage points [46]. - **Tire Exports**: In May 2025, China's tire export volume was 758,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.87% and a year - on - year increase of 11.48%. From January to May, the cumulative tire export volume was 3.4042 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.18%. Among them, the export volume of passenger car tires was 289,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.23% and a year - on - year increase of 8.33%; the cumulative export volume from January to May was 1.3353 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.94%. The export volume of truck and bus tires was 437,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.74% and a year - on - year increase of 12.93%; the cumulative export volume from January to May was 1.9275 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.85% [49].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the spot market price of domestic butadiene rubber continued to decline. The ex - factory price is high, but the monthly settlement price is low. As of May 21, the mainstream price of Daqing BR9000 in the Shandong market was around 12,200 yuan/ton [7]. - Recently, the sentiment on the raw material side has gradually subsided. The production cost of butadiene rubber has decreased slightly but still has a large loss. The continuous large - scale loss in production may lead some private enterprises to further reduce their production loads. The overall overhaul of Yanshan Petrochemical has gradually started, and the supply is expected to continue to decrease [7]. - The prices of related rubber varieties have weakened recently. The continuous decline in the spot market price of butadiene rubber still fails to attract trading. The inventories of butadiene rubber production enterprises and trading enterprises have both increased this week [7]. - In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased this week. Most tire enterprises' devices are operating stably, some enterprises have maintenance plans at the end of the month, and a few enterprises have production reduction phenomena, dragging down the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises. Some enterprises have short - term maintenance plans during the "Dragon Boat Festival" holiday, and the short - term capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises may still decline [7]. - The br2507 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,000 - 11,600 in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights - **Market Review**: The spot market price of domestic butadiene rubber continued to decline. As of May 21, the mainstream price of Daqing BR9000 in the Shandong market was around 12,200 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Raw material sentiment has subsided, production cost has decreased slightly but with large losses. Supply is expected to decrease, inventories have increased, and tire enterprise capacity utilization rate may decline [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The br2507 contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,000 - 11,600 in the short term [7] 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract fluctuated and closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 5.15% [11]. - **Position Analysis**: No specific analysis content provided. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of May 30, the 7 - 8 spread of butadiene rubber was 150 [18]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of May 30, the butadiene rubber warehouse receipts were 6,210 tons, a decrease of 580 tons from last week [21]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Spot Price**: As of May 29, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 11,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton from last week [26]. - **Basis**: As of May 29, the basis of butadiene rubber was 205 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton from last week [26]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - **Naphtha and Ethylene Prices**: As of May 29, the CFR middle - price of naphtha in Japan was 569.5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5.28 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF middle - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 780 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [29]. - **Butadiene Capacity Utilization and Port Inventory**: As of May 30, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 69.3%, an increase of 1.56% from last week; the port inventory was 28,500 tons, an increase of 300 tons from last week [33] 3.5 Industry Situation - **Butadiene Rubber Production and Capacity Utilization**: In April 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber production was 121,500 tons, a decrease of 6,800 tons from the previous month. As of May 29, the weekly capacity utilization rate was 73.54%, a decrease of 1.82% from last week [37]. - **Production Profit**: As of May 29, the domestic butadiene rubber production profit was - 894 yuan/ton, a decrease of 279 yuan/ton from last week [40]. - **Inventory**: As of May 28, the domestic butadiene rubber social inventory was 34,500 tons, an increase of 1,700 tons from last week. As of May 30, the manufacturer inventory was 28,100 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons from last week; the trader inventory was 6,360 tons, an increase of 560 tons from last week [45] 3.6 Downstream Situation - **Tire Capacity Utilization Rate**: As of May 29, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.51%, a decrease of 1.23 percentage points month - on - month and 7.58 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.80%, a decrease of 1.29 percentage points month - on - month and 4.40 percentage points year - on - year [48]. - **Tire Export Volume**: In April 2025, China's tire export volume was 696,800 tons, a decrease of 7.14% month - on - month and an increase of 6.11% year - on - year. From January to April, the cumulative export volume was 2.6455 million tons, a cumulative increase of 6.01% year - on - year [52].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The BR2507 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,800 - 12,700 in the short - term [7] - Recently, the price of raw material butadiene has been rising due to strong demand and unexpected shutdown of some plants, significantly increasing the production cost of butadiene rubber. Driven by macro - positive news, the spot market price has strengthened, and the inventories of producers and traders have decreased to varying degrees. However, some private butadiene rubber plants are expected to restart, increasing the supply. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has increased significantly this week, but the overall shipment is slow, and the inventory continues to grow [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The BR2507 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,800 - 12,700 in the short - term [7] - Market review: The spot price of domestic butadiene rubber in the market soared this week, with the ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber of mainstream sales companies increasing by 800 - 1,000 yuan/ton. As of May 15, 2025, the mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber in China was 12,700 - 12,800 yuan/ton [8] - Market outlook: The production cost of butadiene rubber has increased significantly. Although the inventories of producers and traders have decreased, some private plants are expected to restart. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises has increased, but the shipment is slow and the inventory is rising [8] 3.2. Futures Market - Futures price: The price of the main contract of synthetic rubber futures closed higher this week, with a weekly increase of 5.93% [12] - Position analysis: No specific content provided other than the title - Inter - delivery spread: As of May 16, the 6 - 7 spread of butadiene rubber was - 75 [19] - Futures warehouse receipts: As of May 16, the butadiene rubber warehouse receipts were 6,980 tons, a decrease of 290 tons from last week [22] 3.3. Spot Market - Spot price: As of May 15, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 12,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 850 yuan/ton from last week [27] - Basis: As of May 15, the basis of butadiene rubber was 290 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton from last week [27] 3.4. Upstream Situation - Naphtha and ethylene prices: As of May 14, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 590 US dollars/ton, an increase of 36 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 780 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton from last week [30] - Butadiene capacity utilization and port inventory: As of May 16, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 68.02%, a decrease of 1.33% from last week; the port inventory was 30,870 tons, a decrease of 6,030 tons from last week [34] 3.5. Industry Situation - Production and capacity utilization: In April 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber production was 121,500 tons, a decrease of 6,800 tons from the previous month. As of May 15, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic butadiene rubber was 79.2%, an increase of 4.5% from last week [37] - Production profit: As of May 15, the domestic butadiene rubber production profit was - 1,233 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,060 yuan/ton from last week [40] - Inventory: As of May 14, the domestic butadiene rubber social inventory was 32,200 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons from last week. As of May 16, the producer inventory was 26,650 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from last week; the trader inventory was 5,470 tons, a decrease of 430 tons from last week [44] 3.6. Downstream Situation - Tire capacity utilization: As of May 15, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.21%, a month - on - month increase of 24.50 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.98 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 59.88%, a month - on - month increase of 18.19 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.40 percentage points [47] - Tire export: In March 2025, China's tire export volume was 750,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 45.39% and a year - on - year increase of 9.94%. From January to March, the cumulative tire export volume was 1,948,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.97% [50]