研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 瑞达期货研究院 「2025.09.26」 合成橡胶市场周报 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「周度要点小结」 策略建议： br2511合约短线预计在11150-11600区间波动。 3 行情回顾：本周国内山东市场顺丁橡胶价格窄幅偏弱震荡，现货价格区间在11450-11800元/吨。 中石化化销及中油主要销售公司高顺顺丁橡胶价格稳定。截止2025年9月25日，中国高顺顺丁橡 胶主流出厂价格在11700-11800元/吨。 行情展望：前期多数检修顺丁橡胶装置陆续重启，国内产量恢复性提升，国内顺丁橡胶总体供应 充足，本周原料丁二烯外放资源增多，成本及供应面缺乏利好带动，部分业者对两油资源出厂价 格下调持观望态度，生产企业库存略提升，贸易企业库存下降。临近国庆假期，下游终端或逐步 提货，预计企业库存水平整体小幅下降。需求方面，本周轮胎企业多维持前期开工水平，以适当 储备节后库存，整体开工小幅调整为主，个别小规模半钢胎样本企业，因订单不足 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The BR2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,380 - 11,800 in the short - term [7]. - Recently, the support from cost and supply has weakened. The futures and mainstream supply prices of butadiene rubber have risen rapidly and then fallen back. Arbitrageurs are actively entering the market, but downstream terminal procurement is negative. The overall inventory of production enterprises has decreased, while that of trading enterprises has slightly increased. Next week, there are expectations of short - term shutdown and maintenance for the butadiene rubber plants of Qixiang Tengda and Maoming Petrochemical, and the butadiene plant of Shandong Yihua is expected to restart. The supply is expected to decrease slightly, but under the weak demand expectation, the inventory of production enterprises may still increase. - In terms of demand, the overall capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tires decreased slightly this week due to the maintenance of individual semi - steel tire enterprises at the end of last month, and that of all - steel tires decreased due to the maintenance of some all - steel tire enterprises. Next week, the resumption of production of maintenance enterprises will drive the overall capacity utilization rate to a certain extent, but there are also individual enterprises planning maintenance at the beginning of the month. The overall capacity utilization rate is expected to be slightly adjusted, and the overall increase space is limited [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Strategy Suggestion**: The BR2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,380 - 11,800 in the short - term [7]. - **Market Review**: The price of butadiene rubber in the Shandong market of domestic cis - butadiene rubber dropped from a high level this week, with the spot price fluctuating in the range of 11,400 - 12,300 yuan/ton. The price of high - cis butadiene rubber of Sinopec Chemical Sales decreased by 400 yuan/ton in total, and that of high - cis butadiene rubber of major sales companies of PetroChina decreased by 100 yuan/ton in total [8]. - **Market Outlook**: The support from cost and supply has weakened recently. The futures and mainstream supply prices of butadiene rubber have risen rapidly and then fallen back. The inventory of production enterprises has decreased overall, while that of trading enterprises has slightly increased. Next week, the supply is expected to decrease slightly, but the inventory of production enterprises may still increase under the weak demand expectation. The overall capacity utilization rate of tires is expected to be slightly adjusted, and the overall increase space is limited [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - The price of the main contract of synthetic rubber futures oscillated and closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 7.73% [12]. - As of August 1, the 9 - 10 spread of butadiene rubber was 10 [19]. - As of August 1, the warehouse receipt of butadiene rubber was 2,290 tons, a decrease of 100 tons compared with last week [22]. - **Spot Market** - As of July 31, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 11,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton compared with last week [27]. - As of July 31, the basis of butadiene rubber was 205 yuan/ton, an increase of 420 yuan/ton compared with last week [27]. 3.3 Industry Conditions - **Upstream** - As of July 31, the CFR intermediate price of naphtha in Japan was reported at 611 US dollars/ton, an increase of 30.5 US dollars/ton compared with last week; the CIF intermediate price of Northeast Asian ethylene was reported at 820 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0 US dollars/ton compared with last week [31]. - As of August 1, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 69.97%, an increase of 0.03% compared with last week; the port inventory of butadiene was 10,400 tons, a decrease of 5,300 tons compared with last week [34]. - **Production and Utilization** - In July 2025, the domestic production of cis - butadiene rubber was 129,200 tons, an increase of 6,700 tons compared with last month [38]. - As of July 31, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 72.46%, an increase of 4.83% compared with last week [38]. - **Production Profit** - As of July 31, the domestic production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 375 yuan/ton, an increase of 65 yuan/ton compared with last week [41]. - **Inventory** - As of August 1, the domestic social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 31,320 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons compared with last week [45]. - As of August 1, the domestic manufacturer inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 23,800 tons, a decrease of 1,050 tons compared with last week; the trader inventory was 7,520 tons, an increase of 50 tons compared with last week [45]. 3.4 Downstream Conditions - **Tire Capacity Utilization** - As of July 31, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.98%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points compared with the previous period and a decrease of 10.19 percentage points compared with the same period last year; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 59.26%, a decrease of 2.97 percentage points compared with the previous period and a decrease of 0.20 percentage points compared with the same period last year [48]. - **Tire Exports** - In June 2025, China's tire export volume was 717,100 tons, a decrease of 5.47% compared with the previous month and a decrease of 7.31% compared with the same period last year. From January to June, China's cumulative tire export volume was 4.1213 million tons, a cumulative increase of 4.34% compared with the same period last year [51]. - In June 2025, the export volume of small passenger car tires was 279,100 tons, a decrease of 3.47% compared with the previous month and a decrease of 11.76% compared with the same period last year. From January to June, the cumulative export volume of small passenger car tires was 1.6144 million tons, a cumulative increase of 1.62% compared with the same period last year [51]. - In June 2025, the export volume of truck and bus tires was 407,200 tons, a decrease of 7.00% compared with the previous month and a decrease of 5.11% compared with the same period last year. From January to June, the cumulative export volume of truck and bus tires was 2.3347 million tons, a cumulative increase of 5.34% compared with the same period last year [51].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the domestic butadiene rubber futures price rebounded, and the spot price in the Shandong market slightly increased, with the price fluctuating between 11,400 - 12,000 yuan/ton. The news and raw material price transmission factors have a certain boost to the supply price and market price of butadiene rubber. The futures market has risen, and the spot market has also tried to raise prices [7]. - Due to the recent geopolitical factors causing the increase in crude oil prices, the market's concern about the increase in butadiene rubber supply price driven by rising production costs is gradually rising. The overall inventory of production enterprises has decreased, while that of trading enterprises has increased. Under the influence of cost factors, the supply price may remain firm, but the downstream terminals clearly resist high prices, and it is expected that the production - sales pressure will be difficult to ease [7]. - In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has fluctuated this week. The enterprise production scheduling has gradually returned to the normal level. Some enterprises have moderately increased production to meet order demands, while a few enterprises have suspended production due to power plant maintenance. In the short - term, the enterprise capacity utilization rate is expected to remain basically stable. The production scheduling of all - steel tire enterprises remains stable, and the resumption of production of semi - steel tire enterprises under maintenance has a certain driving effect on the overall capacity utilization rate [7]. - The br2508 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,300 - 11,920 in the short - term [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The domestic butadiene rubber futures price rebounded, and the spot price in the Shandong market slightly increased, with the price range of 11,400 - 12,000 yuan/ton. The futures market rose, and the spot market tried to raise prices [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Geopolitical factors have led to rising crude oil prices, increasing concerns about rising production costs and supply prices. Production enterprise inventories have decreased, while trading enterprise inventories have increased. The supply price may remain firm, but downstream resistance to high prices is strong, and production - sales pressure is difficult to ease. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises is expected to remain stable [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The br2508 contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,300 - 11,920 in the short - term [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - **Price Trend**: The main contract price of synthetic rubber futures closed up this week, with a weekly increase of 2.32% [11]. - **Position Analysis**: There is no detailed information in the provided content. - **Inter - period Spread**: As of June 20, the 7 - 8 spread of butadiene rubber was 160 [18]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of June 20, the butadiene rubber warehouse receipts were 800 tons, a decrease of 4,370 tons compared with last week [21]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - **Price and Basis**: As of June 19, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 11,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan/ton compared with last week. The basis of butadiene rubber was 80 yuan/ton, a decrease of 435 yuan/ton compared with last week [25]. 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Upstream - **Naphtha and Ethylene Prices**: As of June 19, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 642.63 US dollars/ton, an increase of 22.13 US dollars/ton compared with last week; the CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 830 US dollars/ton, an increase of 40 US dollars/ton compared with last week [28]. - **Butadiene Capacity Utilization and Port Inventory**: As of June 20, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 70.06%, an increase of 1.06% compared with last week; the butadiene port inventory was 28,400 tons, an increase of 7,400 tons compared with last week [31]. 3.3.2 Butadiene Rubber - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: In May 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber production was 139,400 tons, an increase of 17,900 tons compared with last month. As of June 19, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic butadiene rubber was 66.32%, an increase of 1.29% compared with last week [35]. - **Production Profit**: As of June 19, the domestic butadiene rubber production profit was 587 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,163 yuan/ton compared with last week [38]. - **Inventory**: As of June 20, the domestic butadiene rubber social inventory was 33,770 tons, a decrease of 900 tons compared with last week; the manufacturer inventory was 26,950 tons, a decrease of 700 tons compared with last week; the trader inventory was 6,820 tons, an increase of 610 tons compared with last week [43]. 3.3.3 Downstream - **Tire Capacity Utilization**: As of June 19, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.54%, a month - on - month increase of 1.56 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.52 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.39%, a month - on - month increase of 2.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.45 percentage points [46]. - **Tire Exports**: In May 2025, China's tire export volume was 758,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.87% and a year - on - year increase of 11.48%. From January to May, the cumulative tire export volume was 3.4042 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.18%. Among them, the export volume of passenger car tires was 289,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.23% and a year - on - year increase of 8.33%; the cumulative export volume from January to May was 1.3353 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.94%. The export volume of truck and bus tires was 437,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.74% and a year - on - year increase of 12.93%; the cumulative export volume from January to May was 1.9275 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.85% [49].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the spot market price of domestic butadiene rubber continued to decline. The ex - factory price is high, but the monthly settlement price is low. As of May 21, the mainstream price of Daqing BR9000 in the Shandong market was around 12,200 yuan/ton [7]. - Recently, the sentiment on the raw material side has gradually subsided. The production cost of butadiene rubber has decreased slightly but still has a large loss. The continuous large - scale loss in production may lead some private enterprises to further reduce their production loads. The overall overhaul of Yanshan Petrochemical has gradually started, and the supply is expected to continue to decrease [7]. - The prices of related rubber varieties have weakened recently. The continuous decline in the spot market price of butadiene rubber still fails to attract trading. The inventories of butadiene rubber production enterprises and trading enterprises have both increased this week [7]. - In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased this week. Most tire enterprises' devices are operating stably, some enterprises have maintenance plans at the end of the month, and a few enterprises have production reduction phenomena, dragging down the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises. Some enterprises have short - term maintenance plans during the "Dragon Boat Festival" holiday, and the short - term capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises may still decline [7]. - The br2507 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,000 - 11,600 in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights - **Market Review**: The spot market price of domestic butadiene rubber continued to decline. As of May 21, the mainstream price of Daqing BR9000 in the Shandong market was around 12,200 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Raw material sentiment has subsided, production cost has decreased slightly but with large losses. Supply is expected to decrease, inventories have increased, and tire enterprise capacity utilization rate may decline [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The br2507 contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,000 - 11,600 in the short term [7] 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract fluctuated and closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 5.15% [11]. - **Position Analysis**: No specific analysis content provided. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of May 30, the 7 - 8 spread of butadiene rubber was 150 [18]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of May 30, the butadiene rubber warehouse receipts were 6,210 tons, a decrease of 580 tons from last week [21]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Spot Price**: As of May 29, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 11,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton from last week [26]. - **Basis**: As of May 29, the basis of butadiene rubber was 205 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton from last week [26]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - **Naphtha and Ethylene Prices**: As of May 29, the CFR middle - price of naphtha in Japan was 569.5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5.28 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF middle - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 780 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [29]. - **Butadiene Capacity Utilization and Port Inventory**: As of May 30, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 69.3%, an increase of 1.56% from last week; the port inventory was 28,500 tons, an increase of 300 tons from last week [33] 3.5 Industry Situation - **Butadiene Rubber Production and Capacity Utilization**: In April 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber production was 121,500 tons, a decrease of 6,800 tons from the previous month. As of May 29, the weekly capacity utilization rate was 73.54%, a decrease of 1.82% from last week [37]. - **Production Profit**: As of May 29, the domestic butadiene rubber production profit was - 894 yuan/ton, a decrease of 279 yuan/ton from last week [40]. - **Inventory**: As of May 28, the domestic butadiene rubber social inventory was 34,500 tons, an increase of 1,700 tons from last week. As of May 30, the manufacturer inventory was 28,100 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons from last week; the trader inventory was 6,360 tons, an increase of 560 tons from last week [45] 3.6 Downstream Situation - **Tire Capacity Utilization Rate**: As of May 29, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.51%, a decrease of 1.23 percentage points month - on - month and 7.58 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.80%, a decrease of 1.29 percentage points month - on - month and 4.40 percentage points year - on - year [48]. - **Tire Export Volume**: In April 2025, China's tire export volume was 696,800 tons, a decrease of 7.14% month - on - month and an increase of 6.11% year - on - year. From January to April, the cumulative export volume was 2.6455 million tons, a cumulative increase of 6.01% year - on - year [52].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The BR2507 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,800 - 12,700 in the short - term [7] - Recently, the price of raw material butadiene has been rising due to strong demand and unexpected shutdown of some plants, significantly increasing the production cost of butadiene rubber. Driven by macro - positive news, the spot market price has strengthened, and the inventories of producers and traders have decreased to varying degrees. However, some private butadiene rubber plants are expected to restart, increasing the supply. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has increased significantly this week, but the overall shipment is slow, and the inventory continues to grow [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The BR2507 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,800 - 12,700 in the short - term [7] - Market review: The spot price of domestic butadiene rubber in the market soared this week, with the ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber of mainstream sales companies increasing by 800 - 1,000 yuan/ton. As of May 15, 2025, the mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber in China was 12,700 - 12,800 yuan/ton [8] - Market outlook: The production cost of butadiene rubber has increased significantly. Although the inventories of producers and traders have decreased, some private plants are expected to restart. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises has increased, but the shipment is slow and the inventory is rising [8] 3.2. Futures Market - Futures price: The price of the main contract of synthetic rubber futures closed higher this week, with a weekly increase of 5.93% [12] - Position analysis: No specific content provided other than the title - Inter - delivery spread: As of May 16, the 6 - 7 spread of butadiene rubber was - 75 [19] - Futures warehouse receipts: As of May 16, the butadiene rubber warehouse receipts were 6,980 tons, a decrease of 290 tons from last week [22] 3.3. Spot Market - Spot price: As of May 15, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 12,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 850 yuan/ton from last week [27] - Basis: As of May 15, the basis of butadiene rubber was 290 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton from last week [27] 3.4. Upstream Situation - Naphtha and ethylene prices: As of May 14, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 590 US dollars/ton, an increase of 36 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 780 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton from last week [30] - Butadiene capacity utilization and port inventory: As of May 16, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 68.02%, a decrease of 1.33% from last week; the port inventory was 30,870 tons, a decrease of 6,030 tons from last week [34] 3.5. Industry Situation - Production and capacity utilization: In April 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber production was 121,500 tons, a decrease of 6,800 tons from the previous month. As of May 15, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic butadiene rubber was 79.2%, an increase of 4.5% from last week [37] - Production profit: As of May 15, the domestic butadiene rubber production profit was - 1,233 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,060 yuan/ton from last week [40] - Inventory: As of May 14, the domestic butadiene rubber social inventory was 32,200 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons from last week. As of May 16, the producer inventory was 26,650 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from last week; the trader inventory was 5,470 tons, a decrease of 430 tons from last week [44] 3.6. Downstream Situation - Tire capacity utilization: As of May 15, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.21%, a month - on - month increase of 24.50 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.98 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 59.88%, a month - on - month increase of 18.19 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.40 percentage points [47] - Tire export: In March 2025, China's tire export volume was 750,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 45.39% and a year - on - year increase of 9.94%. From January to March, the cumulative tire export volume was 1,948,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.97% [50]