1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market continued to fluctuate weakly in a narrow range. As the Spring Festival approaches, the spot - end negotiation atmosphere becomes lighter, with the inventory of production and trading enterprises increasing. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has significantly declined, and it will be at the lowest point during the Spring Festival holiday [8]. - During the long holiday, attention should be paid to the external macro - situation, geopolitics, and crude oil prices [7]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: Pay attention to the external macro - situation, geopolitics, and crude oil prices during the long holiday [7]. - Market review and outlook: The price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market fluctuated weakly. As the Spring Festival approaches, the spot - end negotiation is light, with inventory rising. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises has declined and will be at the lowest point during the holiday [8]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1. Futures Market - Price trend: The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract fluctuated and closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 1.99% [12]. - Position analysis: No specific content provided. - Inter - delivery spread: As of February 13th, the 3 - 4 spread of butadiene rubber was - 85 [19]. - Warehouse receipts: As of February 12th, the cis - butadiene rubber warehouse receipts were 14,580 tons, an increase of 3,470 tons from last week [22]. 3.2.2. Spot Market - Spot price: As of February 12th, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 12,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from last week [28]. - Basis: As of February 12th, the basis of butadiene rubber was - 215 yuan/ton, a decrease of 125 yuan/ton from last week [28]. 3.3. Industry Situation 3.3.1. Upstream - Naphtha and ethylene prices: As of February 12th, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was reported at $612.13/ton, an increase of $9.5/ton from last week; the CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was reported at $690/ton, unchanged from last week [31]. - Butadiene capacity utilization rate and port inventory: As of February 13th, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 74.55%, an increase of 1.43% from last week; the port inventory was 36,600 tons, a decrease of 1,800 tons from last week [34]. 3.3.2. Industry - Production and capacity utilization rate: In January 2026, the production of cis - butadiene rubber was 149,900 tons, an increase of 6,300 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 4.41% and a year - on - year increase of 15.45%. As of February 12th, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 79.63%, an increase of 0.77% from last week [37]. - Production profit: As of February 12th, the production profit of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was - 768 yuan/ton, a decrease of 286 yuan/ton from last week [40]. - Inventory: As of February 13th, the social inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 33,910 tons, an increase of 780 tons from last week; the manufacturer's inventory was 27,800 tons, an increase of 700 tons from last week; the trader's inventory was 6,110 tons, an increase of 80 tons from last week [45]. 3.3.3. Downstream - Tire capacity utilization rate: As of February 12th, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 56.40%, a month - on - month decrease of 15.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.88 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 40.55%, a month - on - month decrease of 19.90 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.74 percentage points [48]. - Tire exports: In December 2025, China's tire export volume was 698,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.48% and a year - on - year increase of 1.94%. From January to December, the cumulative tire export volume was 8,430,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.38% [51]. 3.4. Options Market Analysis - No relevant information provided

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, the export transactions of some domestic butadiene resources drove up the raw material market, increasing the production cost of butadiene rubber and affecting production profits. The bearish sentiment in the spot market subsided, and traders actively supported prices. However, downstream procurement was slow. The price of butadiene rubber in the Shandong market rebounded rapidly after a significant decline [6]. - Recently, there have been few shutdowns of domestic butadiene rubber plants, and supply has remained at a high level. Sufficient spot resources have led to continuous price - pressure from downstream buyers, putting pressure on production profits. Some producers' inventories increased this week, while the price advantage of arbitrage resources led to increased low - price procurement by downstream, and traders' inventories decreased. It is expected that the inventories of producers and traders will change little in the short term [6]. - This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises showed mixed trends. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire enterprises increased slightly due to foreign trade orders, while most other enterprises maintained stable production. The shipment pressure of all - steel tire enterprises increased, and some enterprises moderately controlled production, dragging down the capacity utilization rate. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises will be slightly weak and stable in the short term [6]. - For the br2603 contract, short - term traders need to beware of the callback correction caused by the rapid rise of the futures price. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [6] Summary by Directory 1. Week - by - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The export transactions of domestic butadiene resources drove up raw material prices, increasing the production cost of butadiene rubber. The bearish sentiment in the spot market subsided, but downstream procurement was slow. The price of butadiene rubber in the Shandong market rebounded after a decline [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Supply of butadiene rubber remains high, and downstream procurement is still pressuring prices. Producer inventories increased, and trader inventories decreased. It is expected that inventories will change little in the short term. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises showed mixed trends, and it is expected to be slightly weak and stable in the short term [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For the br2603 contract, short - term traders should beware of callback correction and wait and see for the time being [6] 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - **Price Trend**: The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract fluctuated and closed up this week, with a weekly increase of 9.44% [10]. - **Position Analysis**: Not detailed in the provided content - **Inter - Period Spread**: As of January 23, the 3 - 4 spread of butadiene rubber was - 30 [17]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of January 23, the warehouse receipts of butadiene rubber were 8,120 tons, an increase of 1,590 tons from last week [20]. Spot Market - **Price and Basis**: As of January 22, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 11,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week. The basis of butadiene rubber was - 420 yuan/ton, a decrease of 355 yuan/ton from last week [26] 3. Industry Situation Upstream - **Naphtha and Ethylene Prices**: As of January 22, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 567 US dollars/ton, an increase of 18.5 US dollars/ton from last week. The CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 700 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 10 US dollars/ton from last week [29]. - **Butadiene Capacity Utilization and Port Inventory**: As of January 23, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 69.45%, an increase of 0.08% from last week. The port inventory of butadiene was 34,500 tons, a decrease of 10,100 tons from last week [32]. Industry - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: In December 2025, the domestic production of butadiene rubber was 143,600 tons, an increase of 13,500 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 10.38% and a year - on - year increase of 1.97%. As of January 22, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic butadiene rubber was 76.12%, a decrease of 3.45% from last week [35]. - **Production Profit**: As of January 22, the domestic production profit of butadiene rubber was - 1,002 yuan/ton, a decrease of 281 yuan/ton from last week [38]. - **Inventory**: As of January 23, the social inventory of domestic butadiene rubber was 35,400 tons, an increase of 460 tons from last week. The producer inventory was 29,050 tons, an increase of 2,150 tons from last week, and the trader inventory was 6,350 tons, a decrease of 1,690 tons from last week [42]. Downstream - **Tire Capacity Utilization**: As of January 22, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 73.84%, a month - on - month increase of 1.31 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 8.92 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.53%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.49 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 22.14 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises showed mixed trends this week [45]. - **Tire Exports**: In December 2025, China's tire exports were 698,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.48% and a year - on - year increase of 1.94%. From January to December, the cumulative tire exports were 8.4307 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.38%. The exports of passenger car tires and truck and bus tires showed different trends [48] 4. Option Market Analysis - Not mentioned in the report

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The BR2602 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,250 - 12,000 in the short - term [7] - The domestic butadiene rubber supply remains at a high level, with the price center slightly rising. The market transactions are concentrated in low - price purchases by arbitrageurs. Terminal purchases are weak, and production enterprise inventory is expected to remain high while trade enterprise inventory is expected to decline slightly [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - week Summary Market Review - The domestic butadiene rubber supply remains at a high level. Except for the shutdown of Maoming Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical plants, other butadiene rubber plants are operating at a high load. The Shandong market spot price ranges from 10,600 to 11,300 yuan/ton. Sinopec's ex - factory price for BR9000 is 11,100 yuan/ton, and PetroChina's is 11,100 - 11,400 yuan/ton [8] Market Outlook - The domestic butadiene plants have few shutdowns, and the supply remains high. The price center has slightly increased, but the terminal purchases are still weak. The inventory of production enterprises is expected to remain high, and the inventory of trade enterprises is expected to decline slightly. The tire enterprises have flexible production arrangements, with some controlling production. The semi - steel tire enterprise operating rate has increased slightly, while the all - steel tire enterprise operating rate has decreased [8] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract has oscillated and closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 0.99% [12] - As of December 31, the 2 - 3 spread of butadiene rubber is - 40 [18] - As of December 31, the butadiene rubber warehouse receipts are 4,560 tons, unchanged from last week [21] Spot Market - As of December 30, the price of Qilu Petrochemical's BR9000 in the Shandong market is 11,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 350 yuan/ton from last week [25] - As of December 30, the butadiene rubber basis is - 65 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan/ton from last week [25] 3.3 Industry Situation Upstream - As of December 30, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan is 538.63 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.82 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 745 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [28] - As of December 26, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 70.61%, an increase of 0.6% from last week, and the port inventory is 43,300 tons, an increase of 7,300 tons from last week [31] Industry - In December 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber production is 143,600 tons, an increase of 13,500 tons from last month, a month - on - month increase of 10.38% and a year - on - year increase of 1.97% [34] - As of December 25, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic butadiene rubber is 76.76%, an increase of 0.5% from last week [34] - As of December 25, the domestic butadiene rubber production profit is 334 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan/ton from last week [37] - As of December 26, the domestic butadiene rubber social inventory is 34,540 tons, an increase of 530 tons from last week; the manufacturer inventory is 28,850 tons, an increase of 1,250 tons from last week; the trader inventory is 5,690 tons, a decrease of 720 tons from last week [41] Downstream - As of December 25, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 70.36%, a month - on - month increase of 0.35 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.37 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 61.69%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.92 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.72 percentage points [44] - In November 2025, China's tire export volume is 688,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 54,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.82%. From January to November, the cumulative tire export volume is 7,732,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.51% [48] 3.4 Options Market Analysis - Not provided in the report

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The BR2602 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,150 - 12,000 yuan in the short - term [7] - The domestic butadiene rubber supply remains at a high level this week. The price has slightly increased, but the terminal procurement is weak. The inventory of producers is expected to stay high, while that of traders is expected to decline slightly [8] - The tire enterprises in China have flexible production arrangements this week. The semi - steel tire enterprises' operating rate has increased slightly, and the all - steel tire enterprises' operating rate has decreased. The enterprises are in the seasonal off - season with slow sales and rising inventory [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - by - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The BR2602 contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,150 - 12,000 yuan in the short - term [7] - Market situation: Domestic butadiene rubber supply is high. The price in Shandong market has risen, with the spot price ranging from 10,600 - 11,300 yuan/ton. The ex - factory prices of Sinopec and PetroChina are between 11,100 - 11,400 yuan/ton [8] - Outlook: Supply will remain high. The price is supported by the increase in the mainstream supply price, but due to sufficient resources and year - end production and sales pressure, producer inventory will stay high and trader inventory will decline slightly. Tire enterprises' production is flexible, with semi - steel tire operating rate rising and all - steel tire operating rate falling. The overall sales are slow and inventory is rising [8] 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1. Futures Market - Price trend: The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract has risen by 5.58% this week [12] - Position analysis: No detailed information provided - Inter - delivery spread: As of December 26, the 2 - 3 spread of butadiene rubber is - 5 [18] - Warehouse receipts: As of December 25, the butadiene rubber warehouse receipts are 4,560 tons, unchanged from last week [21] 3.2.2. Spot Market - Price: As of December 25, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market is 11,150 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton from last week [24] - Basis: As of December 25, the basis of butadiene rubber is - 135 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton from last week [24] 3.3. Industry Situation 3.3.1. Upstream - Naphtha and ethylene prices: As of December 24, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan is 540.25 US dollars/ton, up 6.33 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 745 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [27] - Butadiene capacity utilization and port inventory: As of December 26, the weekly capacity utilization of butadiene is 70.61%, up 0.6% from last week; the port inventory is 43,300 tons, up 7,300 tons from last week [30] 3.3.2. Butadiene Rubber Industry - Production and capacity utilization: In November 2025, domestic butadiene rubber production is 13.01 million tons, down 0.75 million tons from last month. As of December 25, the weekly capacity utilization is 76.76%, up 0.5% from last week [33] - Production profit: As of December 25, the domestic butadiene rubber production profit is 334 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton from last week [36] - Inventory: As of December 26, the domestic butadiene rubber social inventory is 34,540 tons, up 530 tons from last week; the producer inventory is 28,850 tons, up 1,250 tons from last week; the trader inventory is 5,690 tons, down 720 tons from last week [40] 3.3.3. Downstream - Tire operating rate: As of December 25, the capacity utilization of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 70.36%, up 0.35 percentage points month - on - month and down 8.37 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 61.69%, down 1.92 percentage points month - on - month and up 1.72 percentage points year - on - year [43] - Tire export volume: In November 2025, China's tire export volume is 688,300 tons, up 5.40% month - on - month and up 1.82% year - on - year. From January to November, the cumulative export volume is 7.7321 million tons, up 3.51% year - on - year [47]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Strategy suggestion: The short - term price of the br2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 10,000 - 10,600 [7]. - Market review: This week, the price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market dropped sharply and then rebounded slightly, with the spot price ranging from 9,750 - 10,900 yuan/ton. Sinopec and most sales companies of PetroChina lowered the ex - factory price of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber by 800 yuan/ton in total. The price of raw material butadiene dropped more than expected due to the dual negative impacts of the expected increase in domestic supply and the continuous decline in foreign market negotiation prices, leading to a significant increase in market bearish sentiment [8]. - Market outlook: Most previously shut - down cis - butadiene rubber plants have restarted, and domestic production has recovered. Recently, the supply of raw material butadiene is sufficient and the negotiation price has been falling, continuously dragging down the cost side. Downstream buyers are bargaining, causing the negotiation price of private resources to drop significantly. Some production enterprises' inventory and sample trading enterprises' inventory have decreased. Next week, some plants will restart, and supply is expected to increase slightly. However, due to the expected increase in future domestic supply of the raw material, the cost side of cis - butadiene remains weak, and the situation of downstream terminal buyers firmly bargaining is difficult to change. The inventory of production enterprises and trading enterprises may increase slightly. In terms of demand, the production scheduling of domestic tire maintenance enterprises has returned to the normal level this week, driving a slight increase in overall capacity utilization. Most other enterprises' equipment is operating stably. Next week, most enterprises will maintain stable production to meet order demands. It is heard that an individual enterprise has a maintenance plan in the middle of the month, which may drag down the overall capacity utilization [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - to - Week Highlights - Strategy: The br2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 10,000 - 10,600 [7]. - Market review and outlook: As described in the core viewpoints above [8]. 3.2. Futures Market - Price trend: The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 3.41% [12]. - Position analysis: No specific analysis content provided. - Inter - period spread: As of November 7, the 1 - 2 spread of butadiene rubber was 0 [19]. - Warehouse receipts: As of November 7, the cis - butadiene rubber warehouse receipts were 2,990 tons, unchanged from last week [22]. 3.3. Spot Market - Price: As of November 6, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 10,350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 285 yuan/ton from last week [27]. - Basis: As of November 6, the basis of butadiene rubber was - 5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 170 yuan/ton from last week [27]. 3.4. Upstream Situation - Naphtha and ethylene prices: As of November 6, the CFR intermediate price of naphtha in Japan was 575.5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2.5 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF intermediate price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 740 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 10 US dollars/ton from last week [30]. - Butadiene capacity utilization and inventory: As of November 7, the weekly capacity utilization of butadiene was 70.32%, an increase of 2.32% from last week; the port inventory was 29,800 tons, a decrease of 2,200 tons from last week [34]. 3.5. Industry Situation - Production and capacity utilization: In October 2025, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber production was 137,600 tons, an increase of 7,200 tons from last month. As of November 6, the weekly capacity utilization of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 65.85%, a decrease of 1.1% from last week [37]. - Production profit: As of November 6, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber production profit was 539 yuan/ton, an increase of 118 yuan/ton from last week [40]. - Inventory: As of November 7, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber social inventory was 29,290 tons, a decrease of 1,590 tons from last week; the manufacturer inventory was 25,770 tons, a decrease of 1,430 tons from last week; the trader inventory was 3,520 tons, a decrease of 160 tons from last week [45]. 3.6. Downstream Situation - Tire开工率: As of November 6, the capacity utilization of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.89%, a month - on - month increase of 0.77 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.03 percentage points; the capacity utilization of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.37%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.51 percentage points. The production scheduling of maintenance enterprises has returned to normal, driving a slight increase in overall capacity utilization, and most other enterprises' equipment is operating stably [48]. - Export demand: In September 2025, China's tire export volume was 687,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.57% and a year - on - year increase of 4.05%. From January to September, the cumulative tire export volume was 6.3908 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.88%. Among them, the export volume of passenger car tires was 260,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.28% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.87%. From January to September, the cumulative export volume of passenger car tires was 2.5008 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.26%. The export volume of truck and bus tires was 400,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.86% and a year - on - year increase of 8.74%. From January to September, the cumulative export volume of truck and bus tires was 3.6279 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.67% [51].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The br2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,350 - 10,900 yuan in the short - term [7] - The price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market continued to be weak this week, with the spot price ranging from 10,400 to 11,350 yuan/ton. Sinopec and most sales companies of PetroChina lowered the ex - factory price of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber by 200 yuan/ton [8] - The production capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased slightly this week. Most enterprises will maintain the current production schedule in the short term, and the production capacity utilization rate is expected to fluctuate slightly [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The br2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,350 - 10,900 yuan in the short - term [7] - Market review: The price of cis - butadiene rubber in Shandong market was weak, and the ex - factory price of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber was lowered by 200 yuan/ton. The increase in raw material exports and the continuous decline of foreign market prices led to a rapid increase in bearish sentiment [8] - Market outlook: The production capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased slightly. The inventory of production enterprises decreased significantly, and the inventory of trading enterprises may increase slightly. The price difference between private and state - owned resources will continue to exist, and downstream procurement may still be waiting for price drops [8] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract fluctuated and closed down, with a weekly decline of 4.81% [12] - As of October 31, the 1 - 2 spread of butadiene rubber was - 10 [19] - As of October 30, the cis - butadiene rubber warehouse receipt was 3,010 tons, a decrease of 40 tons from last week [22] - **Spot Market** - As of October 30, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 10,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan/ton from last week [28] - As of October 30, the basis of butadiene rubber was 0 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from last week [28] 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream Situation** - As of October 30, the CFR intermediate price of naphtha in Japan was 572.63 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 8.5 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF intermediate price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 750 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 15 US dollars/ton from last week [31] - As of October 31, the weekly production capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 67.06%, an increase of 1.44% from last week; the port inventory was 32,000 tons, an increase of 7,400 tons from last week [34] - **Industry Middle - stream** - In October 2025, the domestic production of cis - butadiene rubber was 137,600 tons, an increase of 7,200 tons from last month [37] - As of October 30, the weekly production capacity utilization rate of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 66.95%, a decrease of 6.5% from last week [37] - As of October 30, the domestic production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was 421 yuan/ton, an increase of 625 yuan/ton from last week [40] - As of October 31, the domestic social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 30,880 tons, a decrease of 2,290 tons from last week; the manufacturer's inventory was 27,200 tons, a decrease of 1,450 tons from last week; the trader's inventory was 3,680 tons, a decrease of 840 tons from last week [44] - **Downstream Situation** - As of October 30, the production capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.12%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.72 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.61 percentage points; the production capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.34%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.53 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.15 percentage points [47] - In September 2025, China's tire export volume was 687,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.57% and a year - on - year increase of 4.05%. From January to September, the cumulative tire export volume was 6.3908 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.88% [50]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The BR2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,150 - 11,600 in the short - term [7]. - The prices of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market in China showed a narrow and weak oscillation this week, with the spot price ranging from 11,450 to 11,800 yuan/ton. The ex - factory prices of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber of Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable [8]. - Most previously shut - down cis - butadiene rubber plants have restarted, and domestic production has recovered. The overall supply of cis - butadiene rubber is sufficient. The external supply of raw material butadiene has increased this week, and there is a lack of positive factors in terms of cost and supply. Some industry players are waiting to see if the ex - factory prices of resources from Sinopec and PetroChina will be lowered. The inventory of producers has slightly increased, while that of traders has decreased. As the National Day holiday approaches, downstream terminals may gradually pick up goods, and the overall inventory level of enterprises is expected to decline slightly [8]. - This week, tire enterprises mostly maintained their previous operating levels to appropriately stock up for post - holiday inventory. The overall operation was mainly adjusted slightly. Some small - scale semi - steel tire sample enterprises entered the National Day holiday maintenance state in advance due to insufficient orders. It is reported that some enterprises plan to start a 5 - 8 - day holiday on September 30 or October 1, which will have a significant impact on the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises next week [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The BR2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,150 - 11,600 in the short - term [7]. - Market review: The prices of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market showed a narrow and weak oscillation, with the spot price ranging from 11,450 to 11,800 yuan/ton. The ex - factory prices of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber of Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable, with the mainstream ex - factory price ranging from 11,700 to 11,800 yuan/ton as of September 25, 2025 [8]. - Market outlook: Supply is sufficient, cost and supply lack positive factors, producer inventory has slightly increased, and trader inventory has decreased. As the holiday approaches, downstream terminals may pick up goods, and overall enterprise inventory is expected to decline slightly. Tire enterprises mostly maintained previous operating levels, with overall slight adjustments. Some small - scale enterprises entered holiday maintenance in advance, which will impact next week's capacity utilization rate [8]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1. Futures Market - Price trend: The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract oscillated and closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 0.13% [12]. - Position analysis: No specific content provided other than the topic of "cis - butadiene rubber top 20 position changes". - Inter - delivery spread: As of September 26, the spread between the 11th and 12th contracts of butadiene rubber was 20 [18]. - Futures warehouse receipts: As of September 26, the cis - butadiene rubber warehouse receipts were 2,670 tons, an increase of 60 tons from last week [21]. 3.2.2. Spot Market - Spot price: As of September 25, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 11,580 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton from last week [25]. - Basis: As of September 25, the basis of butadiene rubber was 35 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from last week [25]. 3.3. Industry Situation 3.3.1. Upstream - Naphtha and ethylene prices: As of September 25, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 608.5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5.58 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 820 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 30 US dollars/ton from last week [28]. - Butadiene capacity utilization and port inventory: As of September 26, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 66.3%, a decrease of 0.48% from last week, and the port inventory was 27,750 tons, an increase of 4,650 tons from last week [31]. 3.3.2. Industry - Cis - butadiene rubber production and capacity utilization: In August 2025, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber production was 135,700 tons, an increase of 16,500 tons from the previous month. As of September 25, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 66.41%, a decrease of 3.32% from last week [34]. - Production profit: As of September 25, the domestic production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 544 yuan/ton, an increase of 114 yuan/ton from last week [37]. - Inventory: As of September 26, the domestic social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 32,300 tons, a decrease of 1,420 tons from last week; the producer inventory was 26,600 tons, an increase of 700 tons from last week; the trader inventory was 5,700 tons, a decrease of 2,120 tons from last week [41]. 3.3.3. Downstream - Tire operating rate: As of September 25, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.64%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.95 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.39%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.27 percentage points. Currently, tire enterprises mostly maintain previous operating levels [44]. - Tire exports: In August 2025, China's tire exports were 769,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.36% and a year - on - year increase of 2.49%. From January to August, the cumulative tire exports were 5.703 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.98% [47]. 3.4. Options Market Analysis No relevant content provided.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The BR2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,380 - 11,800 in the short - term [7]. - Recently, the support from cost and supply has weakened. The futures and mainstream supply prices of butadiene rubber have risen rapidly and then fallen back. Arbitrageurs are actively entering the market, but downstream terminal procurement is negative. The overall inventory of production enterprises has decreased, while that of trading enterprises has slightly increased. Next week, there are expectations of short - term shutdown and maintenance for the butadiene rubber plants of Qixiang Tengda and Maoming Petrochemical, and the butadiene plant of Shandong Yihua is expected to restart. The supply is expected to decrease slightly, but under the weak demand expectation, the inventory of production enterprises may still increase. - In terms of demand, the overall capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tires decreased slightly this week due to the maintenance of individual semi - steel tire enterprises at the end of last month, and that of all - steel tires decreased due to the maintenance of some all - steel tire enterprises. Next week, the resumption of production of maintenance enterprises will drive the overall capacity utilization rate to a certain extent, but there are also individual enterprises planning maintenance at the beginning of the month. The overall capacity utilization rate is expected to be slightly adjusted, and the overall increase space is limited [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Strategy Suggestion**: The BR2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,380 - 11,800 in the short - term [7]. - **Market Review**: The price of butadiene rubber in the Shandong market of domestic cis - butadiene rubber dropped from a high level this week, with the spot price fluctuating in the range of 11,400 - 12,300 yuan/ton. The price of high - cis butadiene rubber of Sinopec Chemical Sales decreased by 400 yuan/ton in total, and that of high - cis butadiene rubber of major sales companies of PetroChina decreased by 100 yuan/ton in total [8]. - **Market Outlook**: The support from cost and supply has weakened recently. The futures and mainstream supply prices of butadiene rubber have risen rapidly and then fallen back. The inventory of production enterprises has decreased overall, while that of trading enterprises has slightly increased. Next week, the supply is expected to decrease slightly, but the inventory of production enterprises may still increase under the weak demand expectation. The overall capacity utilization rate of tires is expected to be slightly adjusted, and the overall increase space is limited [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - The price of the main contract of synthetic rubber futures oscillated and closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 7.73% [12]. - As of August 1, the 9 - 10 spread of butadiene rubber was 10 [19]. - As of August 1, the warehouse receipt of butadiene rubber was 2,290 tons, a decrease of 100 tons compared with last week [22]. - **Spot Market** - As of July 31, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 11,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton compared with last week [27]. - As of July 31, the basis of butadiene rubber was 205 yuan/ton, an increase of 420 yuan/ton compared with last week [27]. 3.3 Industry Conditions - **Upstream** - As of July 31, the CFR intermediate price of naphtha in Japan was reported at 611 US dollars/ton, an increase of 30.5 US dollars/ton compared with last week; the CIF intermediate price of Northeast Asian ethylene was reported at 820 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0 US dollars/ton compared with last week [31]. - As of August 1, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 69.97%, an increase of 0.03% compared with last week; the port inventory of butadiene was 10,400 tons, a decrease of 5,300 tons compared with last week [34]. - **Production and Utilization** - In July 2025, the domestic production of cis - butadiene rubber was 129,200 tons, an increase of 6,700 tons compared with last month [38]. - As of July 31, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 72.46%, an increase of 4.83% compared with last week [38]. - **Production Profit** - As of July 31, the domestic production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 375 yuan/ton, an increase of 65 yuan/ton compared with last week [41]. - **Inventory** - As of August 1, the domestic social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 31,320 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons compared with last week [45]. - As of August 1, the domestic manufacturer inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 23,800 tons, a decrease of 1,050 tons compared with last week; the trader inventory was 7,520 tons, an increase of 50 tons compared with last week [45]. 3.4 Downstream Conditions - **Tire Capacity Utilization** - As of July 31, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.98%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points compared with the previous period and a decrease of 10.19 percentage points compared with the same period last year; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 59.26%, a decrease of 2.97 percentage points compared with the previous period and a decrease of 0.20 percentage points compared with the same period last year [48]. - **Tire Exports** - In June 2025, China's tire export volume was 717,100 tons, a decrease of 5.47% compared with the previous month and a decrease of 7.31% compared with the same period last year. From January to June, China's cumulative tire export volume was 4.1213 million tons, a cumulative increase of 4.34% compared with the same period last year [51]. - In June 2025, the export volume of small passenger car tires was 279,100 tons, a decrease of 3.47% compared with the previous month and a decrease of 11.76% compared with the same period last year. From January to June, the cumulative export volume of small passenger car tires was 1.6144 million tons, a cumulative increase of 1.62% compared with the same period last year [51]. - In June 2025, the export volume of truck and bus tires was 407,200 tons, a decrease of 7.00% compared with the previous month and a decrease of 5.11% compared with the same period last year. From January to June, the cumulative export volume of truck and bus tires was 2.3347 million tons, a cumulative increase of 5.34% compared with the same period last year [51].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the domestic butadiene rubber futures price rebounded, and the spot price in the Shandong market slightly increased, with the price fluctuating between 11,400 - 12,000 yuan/ton. The news and raw material price transmission factors have a certain boost to the supply price and market price of butadiene rubber. The futures market has risen, and the spot market has also tried to raise prices [7]. - Due to the recent geopolitical factors causing the increase in crude oil prices, the market's concern about the increase in butadiene rubber supply price driven by rising production costs is gradually rising. The overall inventory of production enterprises has decreased, while that of trading enterprises has increased. Under the influence of cost factors, the supply price may remain firm, but the downstream terminals clearly resist high prices, and it is expected that the production - sales pressure will be difficult to ease [7]. - In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has fluctuated this week. The enterprise production scheduling has gradually returned to the normal level. Some enterprises have moderately increased production to meet order demands, while a few enterprises have suspended production due to power plant maintenance. In the short - term, the enterprise capacity utilization rate is expected to remain basically stable. The production scheduling of all - steel tire enterprises remains stable, and the resumption of production of semi - steel tire enterprises under maintenance has a certain driving effect on the overall capacity utilization rate [7]. - The br2508 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,300 - 11,920 in the short - term [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The domestic butadiene rubber futures price rebounded, and the spot price in the Shandong market slightly increased, with the price range of 11,400 - 12,000 yuan/ton. The futures market rose, and the spot market tried to raise prices [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Geopolitical factors have led to rising crude oil prices, increasing concerns about rising production costs and supply prices. Production enterprise inventories have decreased, while trading enterprise inventories have increased. The supply price may remain firm, but downstream resistance to high prices is strong, and production - sales pressure is difficult to ease. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises is expected to remain stable [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The br2508 contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,300 - 11,920 in the short - term [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - **Price Trend**: The main contract price of synthetic rubber futures closed up this week, with a weekly increase of 2.32% [11]. - **Position Analysis**: There is no detailed information in the provided content. - **Inter - period Spread**: As of June 20, the 7 - 8 spread of butadiene rubber was 160 [18]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of June 20, the butadiene rubber warehouse receipts were 800 tons, a decrease of 4,370 tons compared with last week [21]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - **Price and Basis**: As of June 19, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 11,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan/ton compared with last week. The basis of butadiene rubber was 80 yuan/ton, a decrease of 435 yuan/ton compared with last week [25]. 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Upstream - **Naphtha and Ethylene Prices**: As of June 19, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 642.63 US dollars/ton, an increase of 22.13 US dollars/ton compared with last week; the CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 830 US dollars/ton, an increase of 40 US dollars/ton compared with last week [28]. - **Butadiene Capacity Utilization and Port Inventory**: As of June 20, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 70.06%, an increase of 1.06% compared with last week; the butadiene port inventory was 28,400 tons, an increase of 7,400 tons compared with last week [31]. 3.3.2 Butadiene Rubber - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: In May 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber production was 139,400 tons, an increase of 17,900 tons compared with last month. As of June 19, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic butadiene rubber was 66.32%, an increase of 1.29% compared with last week [35]. - **Production Profit**: As of June 19, the domestic butadiene rubber production profit was 587 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,163 yuan/ton compared with last week [38]. - **Inventory**: As of June 20, the domestic butadiene rubber social inventory was 33,770 tons, a decrease of 900 tons compared with last week; the manufacturer inventory was 26,950 tons, a decrease of 700 tons compared with last week; the trader inventory was 6,820 tons, an increase of 610 tons compared with last week [43]. 3.3.3 Downstream - **Tire Capacity Utilization**: As of June 19, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.54%, a month - on - month increase of 1.56 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.52 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.39%, a month - on - month increase of 2.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.45 percentage points [46]. - **Tire Exports**: In May 2025, China's tire export volume was 758,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.87% and a year - on - year increase of 11.48%. From January to May, the cumulative tire export volume was 3.4042 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.18%. Among them, the export volume of passenger car tires was 289,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.23% and a year - on - year increase of 8.33%; the cumulative export volume from January to May was 1.3353 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.94%. The export volume of truck and bus tires was 437,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.74% and a year - on - year increase of 12.93%; the cumulative export volume from January to May was 1.9275 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.85% [49].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the spot market price of domestic butadiene rubber continued to decline. The ex - factory price is high, but the monthly settlement price is low. As of May 21, the mainstream price of Daqing BR9000 in the Shandong market was around 12,200 yuan/ton [7]. - Recently, the sentiment on the raw material side has gradually subsided. The production cost of butadiene rubber has decreased slightly but still has a large loss. The continuous large - scale loss in production may lead some private enterprises to further reduce their production loads. The overall overhaul of Yanshan Petrochemical has gradually started, and the supply is expected to continue to decrease [7]. - The prices of related rubber varieties have weakened recently. The continuous decline in the spot market price of butadiene rubber still fails to attract trading. The inventories of butadiene rubber production enterprises and trading enterprises have both increased this week [7]. - In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased this week. Most tire enterprises' devices are operating stably, some enterprises have maintenance plans at the end of the month, and a few enterprises have production reduction phenomena, dragging down the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises. Some enterprises have short - term maintenance plans during the "Dragon Boat Festival" holiday, and the short - term capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises may still decline [7]. - The br2507 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,000 - 11,600 in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights - **Market Review**: The spot market price of domestic butadiene rubber continued to decline. As of May 21, the mainstream price of Daqing BR9000 in the Shandong market was around 12,200 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Raw material sentiment has subsided, production cost has decreased slightly but with large losses. Supply is expected to decrease, inventories have increased, and tire enterprise capacity utilization rate may decline [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The br2507 contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,000 - 11,600 in the short term [7] 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract fluctuated and closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 5.15% [11]. - **Position Analysis**: No specific analysis content provided. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of May 30, the 7 - 8 spread of butadiene rubber was 150 [18]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of May 30, the butadiene rubber warehouse receipts were 6,210 tons, a decrease of 580 tons from last week [21]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Spot Price**: As of May 29, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 11,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton from last week [26]. - **Basis**: As of May 29, the basis of butadiene rubber was 205 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton from last week [26]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - **Naphtha and Ethylene Prices**: As of May 29, the CFR middle - price of naphtha in Japan was 569.5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5.28 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF middle - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 780 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [29]. - **Butadiene Capacity Utilization and Port Inventory**: As of May 30, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 69.3%, an increase of 1.56% from last week; the port inventory was 28,500 tons, an increase of 300 tons from last week [33] 3.5 Industry Situation - **Butadiene Rubber Production and Capacity Utilization**: In April 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber production was 121,500 tons, a decrease of 6,800 tons from the previous month. As of May 29, the weekly capacity utilization rate was 73.54%, a decrease of 1.82% from last week [37]. - **Production Profit**: As of May 29, the domestic butadiene rubber production profit was - 894 yuan/ton, a decrease of 279 yuan/ton from last week [40]. - **Inventory**: As of May 28, the domestic butadiene rubber social inventory was 34,500 tons, an increase of 1,700 tons from last week. As of May 30, the manufacturer inventory was 28,100 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons from last week; the trader inventory was 6,360 tons, an increase of 560 tons from last week [45] 3.6 Downstream Situation - **Tire Capacity Utilization Rate**: As of May 29, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.51%, a decrease of 1.23 percentage points month - on - month and 7.58 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.80%, a decrease of 1.29 percentage points month - on - month and 4.40 percentage points year - on - year [48]. - **Tire Export Volume**: In April 2025, China's tire export volume was 696,800 tons, a decrease of 7.14% month - on - month and an increase of 6.11% year - on - year. From January to April, the cumulative export volume was 2.6455 million tons, a cumulative increase of 6.01% year - on - year [52].