当前国内经济状况如何？有哪些值得关注的数据和政策？ 离岸人民币连续升值，对 A 股春季行情有何影响？ 20251221 摘要 美国非农数据走弱，失业率上升，核心 CPI 增速下降，强化了美联储明 年可能降息的预期，但美联储主席人选的不确定性增加了未来政策风险， 需关注沃什等鹰派候选人。 国内 11 月经济数据偏弱，消费和投资降温，出口和工业生产相对较强。 社会消费品零售总额增速创近三年新低，投资各分项均走弱，但实现全 年 5%的 GDP 增长目标难度不大，关注明年初的开门红政策力度。 A 股短期震荡蓄势，年底年初有望企稳反弹，建议逢低布局春季行情， 关注科技（商业航天、核聚变、半导体、机器人）、扩大内需（海南封 关、社服、商贸零售、食品饮料、家电）和周期性板块（有色金属、化 工、新能源）。 美债收益率在 4.0%-4.2%区间震荡，可逐步做多，长期配置性价比依 然存在。美股因流动性改善呈现软着陆态势，小盘科技股弹性较高，但 需注意杠杆风险。黄金因降息预期升温而震荡偏强，但已接近前期高点， 建议谨慎操作，逐步止盈。 Q&A 近期海外市场的主要动态及其对 A 股的影响是什么？ 近期海外市场的主要动态包括日本央行加 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a divergence with defensive sectors like coal, banking, and insurance showing strength, while cyclical sectors such as small metals and steel are undergoing corrections [4][8]. Market Performance - The market fluctuated around the 3900-point mark, closing slightly up by 0.10% [4]. - The Shenzhen Component Index was dragged down by a pullback in the technology sector, while the ChiNext Index was driven up by growth in tech stocks [4]. Trading Volume - The total trading volume of the two markets decreased by 6.83%, indicating a shift to a "wait-and-see" defensive mode [6]. - The Shanghai market saw a larger decrease in volume compared to the Shenzhen market, suggesting a pause in the flow of funds towards small and mid-cap stocks [6]. Fund Flow - Institutional investors are cautiously reallocating funds, withdrawing from previously high-performing sectors like small metals and steel, and moving towards defensive sectors supported by policies, such as coal and insurance [8]. - Retail investors are also showing caution, preferring low-valuation, high-dividend stocks over high-volatility, high-valuation ones [8]. Investor Sentiment - The sentiment among retail investors is cautious, with 75.85% indicating a defensive stance [9]. - The overall market saw 4168 stocks decline, reflecting a bearish sentiment [10]. Positioning - As of October 16, 26.26% of investors increased their positions, while 15.50% reduced their holdings, with 58.24% remaining unchanged [13].