机构观点 德邦证券:短期市场或延续"权重护盘+结构性题材"的震荡格局 市场风格延续谨慎,关注未来国内外经济数据。近期市场延续偏弱, 美联储降息预期下行以及中日关系紧张等外部因素或持续影响市场, 我们认为短期市场或延续"权重护盘+结构性题材"的震荡格局。未 来一段时间,建议关注11月制造业PMI和美联储12月议息会议,若 PMI维持偏弱,市场或将进一步聚焦政策驱动的防御性板块;若美国 核心PCE通胀回落超预期,则美联储降息预期或将回升并缓解A股外 资流出压力。 3A齐聚 · 龙耀东方 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 资金净流入TOP3行业(申万一级) 煤炭 te ta 钢铁 +13.26亿元 联接A 021216 联接c 021217 跟踪中证A100指数 中证A100ETF基金 562000 核心100! 包揽百强行业龙头 联接c 007405 联接A 240014 联接Y 022926 跟踪中证A500指数 责任编辑：宋雅芳 华宝基金集结中证"A系列"三大宽基ETF,为投资者提供了一键做多 中国的多样选择。 跟踪中证A50指数 A50ETF华宝 159596 漂亮5 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market sentiment is cautious, with a structural characteristic of "strong defensiveness and weak growth," as evidenced by the performance of various sectors [5][8]. Market Performance - A total of 1,756 stocks rose, while the number of declining stocks was higher, indicating a cautious market sentiment [4][5]. - The trading volume in both markets was approximately 1.9 trillion, down by 2.44%, reflecting a slight decrease in trading activity but still indicating an active market [6]. Fund Flows - There was a net outflow of 1.89 billion from institutional funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow [7][8]. - Institutions are cautiously optimistic, focusing on policy and valuation safety margins, leading to profit-taking in high-valuation tech sectors and increased investments in defensive sectors like mining, insurance, and banking [8]. Investor Sentiment - Retail investor sentiment stands at 75.85%, indicating a strong defensive preference among individual investors [9]. - The average position of investors showed 28.11% increasing positions, 17.33% decreasing positions, and 54.56% remaining unchanged [12].

Market Overview - Global markets experienced a decline, with the Hang Seng Index falling by 0.79% and the S&P 500 down by 1.17% [1][3] - The A-share market is in a correction phase since October 2, with a potential drop of 15%-20% expected [3] - Defensive sectors are seeing capital inflows, while materials, healthcare, and consumer discretionary sectors are leading declines in Hong Kong stocks [3] Sector Performance - The Hang Seng Financial Index rose by 0.26%, while the Hang Seng Industrial and Commercial Index fell by 1.44% [2] - High-dividend sectors such as telecommunications and utilities are performing well amidst market volatility [3] Company Insights - Luxshare Precision (002475 CH) has its target price raised to 75.55 RMB, reflecting strong synergy from the Apple upgrade cycle and ODM integration [5] - The expected compound annual growth rate for Luxshare's earnings from FY25-27 is projected at 27%, driven by growth in consumer electronics, automotive, and communication sectors [5] Economic Indicators - The UK government is focusing on reducing inflation and managing national debt, hinting at potential tax increases in the upcoming budget [3] - The U.S. job vacancies have dropped to the lowest level since April 2021, indicating a tightening labor market [4]

Group 1: Market Overview - On November 4, A-shares experienced a volume contraction adjustment, while bank stocks rose against the trend, leading to significant gains in related ETFs, with 9 out of the top 10 ETFs being bank-related [1][4] - The rise in bank stocks is attributed to a "defensive switch" in capital, as investors seek safer investments amid increased market volatility in the fourth quarter [6][11] Group 2: ETF Performance - The top-performing ETFs on November 4 included bank-related ETFs, with notable gains such as Xiamen Bank rising nearly 6% and the Tianhong Bank ETF increasing by 2.24% [4][5] - The total trading volume of ETFs on November 4 was approximately 500.5 billion yuan, with a decrease of nearly 60 billion yuan from the previous day [8] Group 3: Bond ETFs - The trading activity of Sci-Tech bond ETFs remained robust, with 5 such ETFs exceeding 9 billion yuan in trading volume on November 4, and the total scale of bond ETFs surpassing 700 billion yuan [2][8] - The newly issued 24 Sci-Tech bond ETFs this year have collectively reached a scale of 252.34 billion yuan, indicating strong market interest in this segment [2] Group 4: Sector Rotation - There has been a noticeable shift in capital towards defensive sectors, with significant net inflows into ETFs related to securities, banks, liquor, and innovative pharmaceuticals, reflecting a strategy to mitigate risks [3][11] - The banking sector, having previously underperformed, is now attracting attention due to its perceived investment value after recent adjustments [6][11]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,158, up 0.97% for the day and 30.40% year-to-date [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.55% to 3,977, with a year-to-date increase of 18.64% [1] - The US markets showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones down 0.48% and the S&P 500 up 0.17% [1] Sector Performance - The Hang Seng Financial Index increased by 2.09%, with a year-to-date rise of 33.73% [2] - The Hang Seng Property Index rose by 1.53%, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 22.48% [2] - The energy, financial, and consumer staples sectors led the gains in the Hong Kong market, while materials and consumer discretionary sectors declined [3] Economic Indicators - The 7-day reverse repo rate in China decreased to 1.4%, while the 10-year government bond yield is at 1.79% [3] - The US manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7, indicating economic contraction for eight consecutive months [3] - The dollar index reached a three-month high, reflecting a strengthening dollar [3] Company Insights: Haier Smart Home - Haier's management maintains a cautious outlook for FY26, projecting mid to high single-digit sales growth and over 10% net profit growth [4] - The air conditioning segment is expected to see over 10% sales growth in the next 3-5 years, driven by enhanced R&D and digital inventory management [5] - The Casa Di brand aims for over 15% sales growth in FY26, focusing on innovation and expansion of high-end experience stores [6] Company Insights: China Life - China Life reported a nearly doubled net profit in Q3 FY25, reaching 1,260 million RMB, a 92% year-on-year increase [9] - The company benefited from rising market interest rates and a strong performance in investment services, with total investment income increasing by 41% year-on-year [9] - The new business value growth forecast has been raised to 38% for the year [9] Company Insights: China Pacific Insurance - China Pacific Insurance's Q3 FY25 net profit grew by 91.5% to 158 million RMB, driven by improved underwriting and investment income [10] - The company achieved a combined ratio improvement, with the car insurance and non-car insurance ratios both showing positive trends [10] - The investment service performance saw a significant increase, with total investment income reaching 359 million RMB, a 33% year-on-year growth [10] Company Insights: BYD Electronics - BYD Electronics is optimistic about revenue growth in 2026, driven by upgrades in North American client products and expansion in the automotive sector [11] - The company anticipates a 50% increase in revenue from foldable smartphones and a 20% increase from automotive business [11] - The AI server business is projected to generate sales of 5 billion RMB [11] Company Insights: Baker Hughes - Baker Hughes has been included in the newly named Hang Seng Semiconductor Industry Index, which is expected to enhance market liquidity and attract investor attention [12] - The strategic optimization of the index aims to improve the investability of Hong Kong's semiconductor companies [12]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market's performance will heavily depend on the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy and changes in US-China relations, with a preference for high-dividend, low-valuation defensive sectors amid high uncertainty [1] - Despite short-term pressure on the technology sector, there may be rapid recovery opportunities if the external environment improves, highlighting the sector's high elasticity [1] - High-dividend sectors such as banking and coal are favored for their strong anti-drawdown characteristics, reflecting the market's preference for stable returns [1] Group 2 - The Dividend Hong Kong Stock ETF (159331) tracks the Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Index (930914), which selects 30 securities with continuous dividends, good liquidity, and outstanding dividend yields from the Hong Kong Stock Connect range, focusing on traditional high-dividend industries like finance, energy, and industrials [1] - Since September 2024, the Dividend Hong Kong Stock ETF (159331) has distributed dividends for 13 consecutive months, indicating its consistent performance [2]

今天A股这盘面，估计不少朋友盯着屏幕，手都有点凉吧？打开账户一看，绿油油一片，心里头难免发紧。我是帮主郑重，干了20年财经记者，专做中长线 投资，今儿就跟大伙掏掏心窝子，聊聊这跌到位的市场，下周该咋应对。 至于操作策略，帮主给两句实在话：持仓的朋友，别慌着"割肉"，尤其是手里那些基本面没问题、只是跟着板块回调的优质股，现在割在低位，反而把之前 的耐心白费了，不如扛住这波震荡，等情绪稳一稳；空仓或轻仓的朋友，也别急于"抄底"，现在市场还没站稳，别急着接下落的刀子，要是真想动，就盯着 今天逆市走强的燃气、贵金属这些防御性板块，小仓位试试水，千万别重仓。 咱们做中长线投资的，最忌被短期波动带着跑。市场涨涨跌跌本是常事，跌的时候更要沉住气，把眼光放远点。帮主陪大伙走过不少震荡期，记住：现在熬 住，比乱操作更重要，等风向转过来，机会自然就来了。 今儿三大指数算是"集体跳水"，沪指跌了近2%，深成指、创业板指直接跌超3%，北证50更猛，跌了快4%。全市场4700多只个股下跌，差不多九成股票都在 跌，就连成交额都比昨天多了几十亿，这说明不是没人交易，是卖盘确实有点重。之前火得发烫的光伏、储能、半导体，今天全蔫了，阳光电源这 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a downward trend characterized by pressure on technology growth stocks and active defensive sectors, with funds shifting towards undervalued defensive sectors and regional thematic concepts [1] Market Performance - A-share market opened lower and continued to decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1% at 3877.2 points, Shenzhen Component down 1.99%, ChiNext down 2.37%, and the Sci-Tech 50 Index down 2.62%, indicating significant adjustments in the technology growth sector [2] - Over 4100 stocks in the market declined, while gains were concentrated in defensive sectors like banking and coal, with trading volume at 1.19 trillion yuan, indicating a shift in fund allocation [2] - The Hong Kong market also saw declines, with the Hang Seng Index down 1.61% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 2.81%, as semiconductor, consumer electronics, and photovoltaic sectors faced collective pressure [2] Industry Hotspots and Driving Logic - Defensive sectors and regional themes led the gains, with the banking sector up 0.37% and large state-owned banks reaching historical highs, driven by low valuations and high dividend yields attracting risk-averse funds [3] - Gold stocks strengthened due to heightened geopolitical tensions and increased demand for safe-haven assets, while coal stocks saw a slight increase of 0.37% amid expectations of rising energy prices [3] - In the Hong Kong market, structural opportunities emerged with retail and airline stocks performing well, supported by positive operational data from the airline industry [3] Underperforming Sectors and Driving Logic - The technology growth sector faced collective declines, particularly in the new energy industry chain, with photovoltaic, energy storage, and charging pile indices dropping over 4% due to concerns over "anti-involution" policies and market sentiment cooling [4] - The semiconductor and consumer electronics sectors were under pressure from global semiconductor cycle adjustments and slowing demand growth for AI chips [4] - The automotive sector also faced challenges, with slowing sales growth for new energy vehicles and downward adjustments in performance expectations for component manufacturers [4] Investment Strategy Recommendations - The market is in a structural transition period characterized by "high valuation digestion and low valuation rebound," with policy expectations and industry recovery trends expected to guide future directions [5] - It is recommended to focus on three main lines for investment: identifying structural opportunities in the technology growth sector, particularly in the AI industry chain; monitoring innovative pharmaceuticals for clinical approvals and international expansion; and exploring long-term trends in military and solid-state battery sectors [5] - For cyclical and resource sectors, attention should be paid to "policy and supply-demand" dual drivers, with precious metals like gold and copper benefiting from global easing expectations and domestic infrastructure investment recovery [6]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a divergence with defensive sectors like coal, banking, and insurance showing strength, while cyclical sectors such as small metals and steel are undergoing corrections [4][8]. Market Performance - The market fluctuated around the 3900-point mark, closing slightly up by 0.10% [4]. - The Shenzhen Component Index was dragged down by a pullback in the technology sector, while the ChiNext Index was driven up by growth in tech stocks [4]. Trading Volume - The total trading volume of the two markets decreased by 6.83%, indicating a shift to a "wait-and-see" defensive mode [6]. - The Shanghai market saw a larger decrease in volume compared to the Shenzhen market, suggesting a pause in the flow of funds towards small and mid-cap stocks [6]. Fund Flow - Institutional investors are cautiously reallocating funds, withdrawing from previously high-performing sectors like small metals and steel, and moving towards defensive sectors supported by policies, such as coal and insurance [8]. - Retail investors are also showing caution, preferring low-valuation, high-dividend stocks over high-volatility, high-valuation ones [8]. Investor Sentiment - The sentiment among retail investors is cautious, with 75.85% indicating a defensive stance [9]. - The overall market saw 4168 stocks decline, reflecting a bearish sentiment [10]. Positioning - As of October 16, 26.26% of investors increased their positions, while 15.50% reduced their holdings, with 58.24% remaining unchanged [13].

Core Points - The China Securities State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index (000824) decreased by 0.87% as of October 13, 2025, with Shen Property A (000011) leading the gain at 4.73% [1] - The U.S. government has adjusted its technology export control policies towards China, leading to new uncertainties in the global supply chain and increased market volatility [1] - Since April, there has been a significant divergence in performance between dividend and technology sectors, indicating a potential market shift towards defensive sectors [1] Group 1: Index Performance - The China Securities State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index (000824) has seen a decline of 0.87% [1] - The top-performing stock in the index is Shen Property A (000011), which increased by 4.73% [1] - The index's ETF (159515) has undergone adjustments [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The U.S. has included controlling subsidiaries of entities on its entity list in its export regulations, prompting China to implement export controls on critical materials [1] - The market is experiencing increased volatility due to these policy changes, affecting global supply chains [1] - Analysts suggest a shift in market style towards dividend and low-position blue-chip stocks, which may act as a stabilizing force during market corrections [1] Group 3: ETF Composition - The China Securities State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index comprises 100 listed companies with high and stable cash dividend yields [2] - As of September 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the index account for 17.15% of the total index [2] - The ETF closely tracks the performance of the index, providing exposure to high-dividend state-owned enterprises [2]