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定量策略周观点总第161周:科技主题和高股息-20250505
Huaxin Securities· 2025-05-05 11:02
Group 1 - The core view indicates that Asian currencies are strengthening against the US dollar, suggesting a shift away from the "American exceptionalism" narrative, with non-US assets showing no significant systemic risks in the short term [1][2][3] - The report recommends a "barbell" strategy ahead of the June FOMC meeting, advocating for long-duration bonds and high-dividend stocks while also exploring opportunities in technology sectors such as semiconductors, innovative pharmaceuticals, and battery storage [1][6][12] - The report highlights that the A-share market is expected to see a slight rebound, driven by strong performance in small-cap technology stocks and consumer sectors, while maintaining a focus on high-dividend and cash flow stocks [44][52][53] Group 2 - The report notes that the US stock market is currently benefiting from retail fund inflows and strong earnings from technology stocks, with a recommendation to consider shorting the dollar before the June FOMC meeting [2][40][41] - In the Japanese market, the ongoing negotiations regarding US-Japan tariffs are a key focus, with expectations that Japan may sell US bonds to strengthen its negotiating position [41][44] - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining a balanced portfolio in the Hong Kong market, with a focus on sectors such as internet, consumer, and healthcare, while noting a slowdown in southbound capital inflows [46][50][51] Group 3 - The report suggests that the current market environment favors high-dividend and low-volatility stocks, particularly in sectors like banking, utilities, and infrastructure [7][53] - Small-cap stocks are highlighted as having a stronger performance outlook due to declining short-term interest rates, with a cautionary note on potential trading congestion risks in the small-cap index [54][55] - The report identifies key sectors for investment, including banking, electric utilities, innovative pharmaceuticals, robotics, semiconductor materials, and military low-altitude economy [55][56] Group 4 - The report indicates that gold is currently in a short-term oversold condition but maintains a long-term upward trend as a hedge against global monetary expansion [56][57] - The ETF strategy shows a strong performance with a 31.19% absolute return since the beginning of 2024, outperforming the benchmark indices [58][59] - The report reviews the performance of various strategies, noting that high-dividend stocks significantly outperformed the market, while technology sectors like robotics and semiconductors also showed strong gains [60][61]