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李宁(02331):2025Q2营运情况点评:流水低单位数增长,库存保持健康水平
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-07-16 04:11
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company's retail revenue for Q2 2025 showed low single-digit year-on-year growth, consistent with Q1 performance. Offline channels experienced a low single-digit decline, while e-commerce channels grew at a mid-single-digit rate [2][3] - The running and fitness categories continue to outperform, with expected high single-digit growth in revenue for Q2. Basketball remains under pressure, while outdoor and badminton categories are growing rapidly [2][3] - The company is focusing on a stable store strategy, with a net decrease of 18 stores to 6099 by June 30. The company plans to maintain steady expansion in store numbers throughout the year [2][3] - Marketing efforts will focus on themes related to Yang Hansheng and the Olympics, aiming to boost sales in the basketball category and enhance brand recognition [3] Financial Summary - Projected revenue growth for 2025-2027 is 1.7%, 5.3%, and 4.5%, reaching 29.15 billion, 30.69 billion, and 32.07 billion yuan respectively. Net profit is expected to decline by 12.6% in 2025, followed by growth of 6.6% and 6.1% in the subsequent years [3][4] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 1.02, 1.09, and 1.15 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 14.65, 13.75, and 12.96 [4][12] - The company maintains a healthy inventory level despite a challenging consumption environment [3]