乳业调整期漫漫，蒙牛仍未盼来曙光。 上半年，蒙牛实现营业收入415.67亿元，同比下滑6.9%，销量与价格均出现低个位数下滑。 受益于原奶价格下降，蒙牛上半年毛利率提升1.4个百分点至41.7%，推动经营利润同比增长超13.4%， 达35亿元。 原奶价格下降也导致以现代牧业为代表的联营企业业绩承压，使蒙牛承受5.45亿元的账面亏损，抵消了 成本下降对净利润的修复。 上半年，蒙牛归母净利润同比下降16.4%至20.46亿元，净利率下滑0.6个百分点。 公司管理层指出，若剔除该联营公司亏损的影响，归母净利润实际可与去年同期持平。 行业对需求复苏、竞争格局改善的前景预期并不乐观。 国内奶牛存栏量自2024年起持续下降，进入2025年后始终处于同比负增长状态。 尽管行业处于产能出清阶段，但凭借产业链韧性支撑，上半年牛奶产量仍实现0.5%的同比增长，奶价 则持续在每公斤3元左右徘徊。 市场普遍预计，周期实质性反转的节点已推迟至2026年。 蒙牛所面临的压力也不仅来自宏观消费疲软与行业周期影响，而更多源于品类结构与渠道布局的失衡。 在常温液奶占据绝对核心的收入结构下，蒙牛的第二增长曲线尚不明晰。 若无法在结构性短板上取得 ...

Group 1 - The company's revenue decreased by 4% in volume and low single digits in price, resulting in a total revenue of 41.57 billion RMB, with a year-on-year decline in net profit attributable to shareholders of 16.4% to 2.05 billion RMB [1] - Despite revenue pressure, the company's profitability improved, with gross margin increasing by 1.4 percentage points to 41.7% due to falling raw milk prices, and operating profit margin rising by 1.5 percentage points to 8.5% [1] - The management indicated that terminal demand remains weak, expecting a continued decline in volume and price in the second half of the year, leading to a downward revision of the full-year guidance [1] Group 2 - The core liquid milk business saw a revenue decline of 11.2% to 32.19 billion RMB, reflecting weak terminal demand and intense price competition, while other categories like ice cream (+15.0%), cheese (+12.3%), and milk powder (+2.5%) showed positive growth [2] - The cheese business benefited from synergies with Miaokelan, expanding into snack and family meal scenarios, while infant formula experienced double-digit growth, indicating a positive trend [2] - Management aims for an annual improvement of 30-50 basis points in operating profit margin over the next three years, despite the current weak terminal demand [2] Group 3 - The company has lowered its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 by 8-14% due to the performance in the first half and the recent weak terminal demand, with uncertainty surrounding the recovery of liquid milk sales [2][3] - Based on more conservative operating profit margin predictions, the company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027 down by 11-19% for operating profit and 9-27% for net profit attributable to shareholders [3] - The target price has been revised down to 21.51 HKD based on a 15 times expected price-to-earnings ratio for 2026, while maintaining a buy rating [3]