乳业调整期漫漫，蒙牛仍未盼来曙光。 上半年，蒙牛实现营业收入415.67亿元，同比下滑6.9%，销量与价格均出现低个位数下滑。 受益于原奶价格下降，蒙牛上半年毛利率提升1.4个百分点至41.7%，推动经营利润同比增长超13.4%， 达35亿元。 原奶价格下降也导致以现代牧业为代表的联营企业业绩承压，使蒙牛承受5.45亿元的账面亏损，抵消了 成本下降对净利润的修复。 上半年，蒙牛归母净利润同比下降16.4%至20.46亿元，净利率下滑0.6个百分点。 公司管理层指出，若剔除该联营公司亏损的影响，归母净利润实际可与去年同期持平。 行业对需求复苏、竞争格局改善的前景预期并不乐观。 国内奶牛存栏量自2024年起持续下降，进入2025年后始终处于同比负增长状态。 尽管行业处于产能出清阶段，但凭借产业链韧性支撑，上半年牛奶产量仍实现0.5%的同比增长，奶价 则持续在每公斤3元左右徘徊。 市场普遍预计，周期实质性反转的节点已推迟至2026年。 蒙牛所面临的压力也不仅来自宏观消费疲软与行业周期影响，而更多源于品类结构与渠道布局的失衡。 在常温液奶占据绝对核心的收入结构下，蒙牛的第二增长曲线尚不明晰。 若无法在结构性短板上取得 ...

Group 1: Overall Market Trends - The demand for consumer goods remains weak in Q2 2025, with no significant improvement on a quarter-on-quarter basis [1] - Raw material costs for consumer goods companies are mostly at the bottom or in a downward trend, but competition in the industry remains intense, leading to limited improvement in profitability [1] Group 2: Dairy Products - Demand for ambient liquid milk remains weak, while demand for low-temperature liquid milk, cheese, and ice cream shows improvement [2] - The supply-demand situation for raw milk is improving, but competition remains high due to excess supply [2] - The performance of upstream dairy farms is expected to remain under pressure in H1 2025 due to falling milk prices and changes in herd structure [2] Group 3: Food Supply Chain - The demand for the food supply chain remains weak, with most companies showing relatively flat revenue performance [3] - Prices for raw materials like flour, soybeans, and sugar have decreased year-on-year, while prices for plant oils and imported dairy products have increased [3] Group 4: Snacks - The konjac category remains strong, but there is noticeable differentiation within the snack sector [4] - Online channel revenue growth for snacks has slowed, while demand for quail eggs has also decreased [4] Group 5: Beverages - The beverage industry continues to show a favorable demand environment, with health and functional products leading growth [5] - Increased competition is noted as multiple manufacturers engage in promotional activities and invest in large packaging products [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Insights - The report highlights that the liquor sector is under pressure, with overall collection progress in Q2 lagging behind last year, and sales showing a year-on-year gap. The prices of major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye are under pressure due to regulatory measures aimed at reducing waste [5][15] - The beverage sector, particularly beer and dairy products, is expected to show varying performance, with some companies like Qingdao Beer and Yili maintaining growth while others face challenges [6][18] - The snack food segment is experiencing strong growth driven by channel optimization and product innovation, with companies like Youfu Foods and Yanjin Beer showing significant revenue increases [19][21] Summary by Sections 1. Liquor Sector - Q2 performance is expected to be weak for most liquor companies, with Moutai projected to have a revenue growth of 7% year-on-year, while Wuliangye is expected to decline by 2% [16] - Regulatory measures have impacted normal consumption scenarios, leading to a cautious approach from companies as they prepare for traditional consumption peaks during festivals [15] 2. Beer Sector - Qingdao Beer is expected to see slight growth due to low sales base in Q2 2024, while Chongqing Beer is projected to maintain sales levels [17] - Yanjin Beer is benefiting from supply chain management improvements, contributing to profitability [18] 3. Dairy Products - Yili is expected to face pressure in its ambient liquid milk segment, while other products like milk powder and ice cream continue to grow [18] - New Dairy is projected to maintain its performance in low-temperature categories, with profit growth expected to outpace revenue growth [18] 4. Soft Drinks - Eastroc Beverage is anticipated to continue its steady growth in energy drinks, while new products are expected to drive higher growth rates [19] - Chengde Lululemon is expected to see improvements in gross margins despite raw material price increases [19] 5. Snack Foods - Youfu Foods is focusing on channel optimization and product innovation, expecting significant revenue and profit growth [19] - Salted Fish and other snack companies are also projected to maintain strong growth, with new product launches expected to drive performance in the second half of the year [19][21] 6. Restaurant Supply Chain - Anji Foods is expected to achieve single-digit revenue growth, while competition continues to pressure margins [20] - Qianwei Central Kitchen is projected to maintain stable revenue, with slight pressure in the small B restaurant segment [20] 7. Export Companies - Zhongchong Co. is expected to maintain high revenue growth due to positive pre-sale feedback, while Xianle Health is projected to continue its growth trend despite some fluctuations in export business [21]

Summary of the Conference Call for Yili Group Industry Overview - The liquid milk industry is experiencing weak terminal sales in Q2 2025, but is expected to perform better than Q1 due to a low base from the previous year and inventory adjustments [2][3] - There is still growth potential in the dairy industry, particularly in lower-tier cities and new retail channels [2][7] Company Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved positive revenue growth with a 24% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders [3] - The company aims for revenue growth that outpaces the industry and targets a net profit margin of 9% [2][4] Product Performance - Low-temperature liquid milk has shown slight growth, while room-temperature liquid milk has experienced a mid-single-digit decline [2][5] - The company is focusing on high-end products and optimizing SKU to improve revenue in low-temperature liquid milk [2][5] - The introduction of high-cost performance products is expected to impact product structure but will help in reducing raw milk costs [2][8] Market Strategy - The company is cautious about liquid milk growth expectations, with a strategy to reduce channel inventory and launch customized products [2][5][9] - The adult nutrition market is a key focus, with a market share of 24% and a goal for double-digit growth [3][16] - The infant formula segment has seen a balanced development, with a target to increase market share and reach the top position by 2027 [3][15] Supply Chain and Pricing - The company sources milk primarily from local suppliers, with about 40% from its own farms [13] - The current low milk prices are affecting the market, but the company is focusing on channel opportunities rather than just low pricing strategies [14][21] Future Outlook - The dairy industry is expected to have significant growth opportunities, especially in new retail channels and increased per capita consumption [7][22] - The company is exploring non-dairy businesses and international markets, aiming for substantial growth in these areas over the next five years [18][22] Competitive Landscape - The competitive environment in the dairy market has shifted, with the company maintaining stable pricing strategies to ensure market share [23] - New product launches have performed well, contributing positively to the company's growth [24] Conclusion - The company is strategically positioned to navigate the current challenges in the dairy market while capitalizing on growth opportunities in various segments and channels [2][7][18]