哈塞特效应
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每日投行/机构观点梳理(2025-11-26)
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-11-26 12:11
Group 1 - UBS Asset Management indicates that Chinese stock valuations remain attractive, with MSCI China at approximately 13.2 times forward P/E, slightly above the past decade's average, but still below historical highs, suggesting no overheating in the market [1] - Global investors, including long-term funds and hedge funds, are actively participating in Chinese stocks, primarily through ETFs rather than actively managed funds, indicating a "technical repair" phase in the market [1] - UBS expects continued optimism for Asian assets over the next 6-12 months, with MSCI Asia Pacific (excluding Japan) at about 15 times forward P/E, significantly lower than MSCI Global's 20.5 times, indicating substantial room for capital inflow [1] Group 2 - A Reuters survey predicts the S&P 500 index to rise to 7490 points by the end of 2026, an increase of approximately 12% from current levels, driven by a healthy U.S. economy and strong tech performance [2] - The survey indicates a potential for a market pullback in the next three months, with inflation concerns and uncertainty around interest rate cuts posing risks to the optimistic outlook [2] - The Dow Jones is forecasted to end next year at 50,566 points, reflecting an increase of over 7% from its current level [2] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs suggests that if a peace agreement is reached between Ukraine and Russia, it could lower their Brent crude oil price forecast by about $5 per barrel, with a current forecast of $56 per barrel for next year [3] Group 4 - Analysts from ING report an increase in implied volatility for the euro against the pound ahead of the UK budget announcement, indicating market concerns despite a recovery in long-term UK government bonds [4] Group 5 - ING analysts state that the German economy is expected to remain stagnant until fiscal stimulus measures take effect, with the latest GDP estimates confirming stagnation due to weak private consumption and net exports [5] - However, they anticipate improvement post-current quarter as the German parliament is expected to approve the 2026 budget, which should support economic activity [5] Group 6 - Dongfang Jincheng forecasts limited upside for the U.S. dollar, with the RMB expected to remain strong, supported by seasonal demand for currency settlement in Q4 [6] - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) believes a new upward cycle for lithium batteries is starting, driven by energy storage demand and technological advancements in solid-state batteries [7] - Guohai Securities projects a slow bull market for A-shares, with technology remaining a key focus, supported by liquidity from household savings [8]
“哈塞特效应”阴影笼罩美元 国际黄金突破4160
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-11-26 06:26
今日周三(11月26日)亚盘时段,国际黄金目前交投于4160美元附近,截至发稿,国际黄金最新报 4164.46美元/盎司,涨幅0.84%,最高上探至4169.20美元/盎司,最低触及4129.07美元/盎司。目前来 看,国际黄金短线偏向看涨走势。 摘要今日周三(11月26日)亚盘时段,国际黄金目前交投于4160美元附近,截至发稿,国际黄金最新报 4164.46美元/盎司,涨幅0.84%,最高上探至4169.20美元/盎司,最低触及4129.07美元/盎司。目前来 看,国际黄金短线偏向看涨走势。 现货黄金上涨逾0.7%,至每盎司4,160.12美元,为11月14日以来的最高水平。"目前的预期更倾向于12月 降息……美联储官员的鸽派言论和良好的经济数据加强了这一理由,从收益率角度来看,这提振了黄 金,"分析师表示。 【最新国际黄金行情解析】 黄金短线价格交投4160一线美元,价格已从前面一个区间上移下一个区间。4112在今日依旧存在反复测 试机会。今天回踩关注4112附近直接做多该位是周二低点,近期白盘上涨都是缺乏延续,待回落之后继 续做多。当日多头最大上限可看至4200美元上方!市场俄乌和平协议已经达成,短期上 ...
瑞穗证券:“哈塞特”效应或令美元承压
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-26 03:28
来源:金融界AI电报 瑞穗证券分析师瓦拉坦说,由于美联储降息的可能性大幅上升,美元保持稳定,但随着哈塞特被提名为 下一任美联储主席的可能性大幅上升,美元汇率出现下跌。市场似乎并未质疑美联储的独立性,美联储 威廉姆斯、沃勒和戴利都支持12月降息。不过,瓦拉坦指出,投资者正在消化哈塞特可能导致美联储政 治化的因素。他说,"哈塞特效应"可能会给美元蒙上阴影,并补充说,只要美联储主席任命的这种政治 上顺从的看法没有消除,美元的贬值风险仍然很高。 ...