来源：财经网 9月15日，特朗普提名的白宫经济顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬·米兰获得国会参议院批准出任美联储理事一 职。这意味着其能够参加即将举行的美联储货币政策会议；不过在特朗普感到庆幸的同时，美国联邦上 诉法院15日驳回总统特朗普在美联储货币政策会议召开前将理事库克撤职的请求，此前曾遭特朗普解职 的美联储理事库克同样可以留任到联邦最高法院作出最终裁决。此刻正值美联储召开9月份政策会议之 际，这些最新的进展意味着特朗普希望通过增补美联储理事完全"控制"美联储的努力变得喜忧参半。美 国政治力量对于货币政策决定权的争夺仍然激烈。 当下，特朗普急于降息，在安邦智库的研究人员看来，有几个方面的因素，一是通过降低利率弱化美 元，配合其对等关税政策，改善贸易逆差，实现其竞选承诺；二是降低企业融资成本，不仅为制造业回 归带来助力，更有利于推动"MAGA"目标；三是降低政府融资成本，减少政府债务的利息支出，有利于 缓解财政扩张导致的政府债务失控的局面，从而控制财政赤字增加的幅度。就此而言，降息也是特朗普 经济政策得以有效实施的前置条件之一，也是其对等关税政策和财政政策实施的配套措施。这或许是其 持续向美联储施压的考虑。显然，这是一 ...

来源：滚动播报 KKR联合创始人克拉维斯：将美联储政治化將是"巨大错误"。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is bearish, with an expected decline of 5 - 15% in the short, medium, and long - term [7]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The politicalization of the Federal Reserve is a special product of special times. To solve serious problems of the government or cope with extreme economic pressure, the Fed will sacrifice relatively unimportant parts of monetary policy (usually inflation and the value of the domestic currency) to achieve relatively low interest rates and economic growth [4][75]. - It is expected that the Fed will use inflation to exchange for economic growth again. The US dollar index will trend downwards due to long - term low real interest rates and high inflation. The market underestimates the degree of the Fed's politicalization, and the US dollar is expected to be weaker in 2026 [3][5][76]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Fed Politicalization 3.1.1 Fed Politicalization during World War II - To finance the war, the US government needed to issue a large amount of national debt and have huge fiscal expenditures, which would lead to high interest rates and high inflation. The Fed implemented the yield curve control (YCC) policy, setting the 10 - year interest rate cap at 2.5% and the short - term Treasury bill rate at 0.375% [14][17]. - The YCC policy stabilized the interest rate level and reduced the government's financing cost, but it could not solve the inflation problem. The US also adopted production control, price and wage control, increased marginal tax rates, and export and foreign exchange controls, but inflation still rose significantly [18]. - The high inflation was mainly caused by the government's fiscal deficit. The Fed printed money to fill the gap. The US was in a wartime economic state of high deficit, high inflation, high money growth, and low unemployment. The Fed gave up inflation management to serve government financing [25][32]. - After the war, the Fed and the Treasury had a conflict over interest rate control. In 1951, the Fed won, and the Treasury absorbed investors' losses by replacing long - term US bonds [33]. 3.1.2 Fed Politicalization during the Stagflation Period in the 1970s - Nixon pressured Fed Chairman Burns to prioritize the economy over inflation. Burns cut interest rates, which helped Nixon's re - election but led to rising inflation. Later, the Fed raised interest rates, but inflation was not well - controlled due to the loss of credibility [34][37]. - Carter also pressured the Fed to maintain low interest rates to reduce unemployment. The Fed's monetary policy remained loose, and the M1 growth rate was very high, resulting in long - term high inflation [39]. - The Fed's politicalization in the 1970s led to a large - scale stagflation. The US dollar weakened significantly, financial assets performed poorly, and commodities, especially precious metals, outperformed stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange. This also promoted the replacement of Keynesianism with monetarism and the rise of central bank independence [49]. 3.1.3 Post - COVID - 19 Fed Politicalization Trend - The COVID - 19 pandemic led to a collapse of the global economic growth framework. The US government's large - scale fiscal stimulus increased government debt and inflation. The Fed raised interest rates, increasing the government's debt interest payments and making the US debt problem more prominent [51]. - The Trump administration's tariff policy increased inflation pressure. The Fed is expected to prioritize maintaining low interest rates, tolerate inflation, and may introduce yield curve control to reduce the interest rate center and relieve the US debt pressure [54][62]. - The current US economic situation has differences and similarities with the previous two Fed politicalization periods. The Fed's politicalization degree is expected to increase gradually, and the introduction of yield curve control will be a sign of accelerated politicalization [63]. 3.2 Summary - The Fed's politicalization is a special response to special economic situations. It sacrifices inflation and the value of the domestic currency for low interest rates and economic growth. The process is painful for the public, and the Fed's reputation is at risk [4][75]. 3.3 Investment Suggestions - Due to the expected long - term low real interest rates and high inflation, the US dollar index will trend downwards. It is recommended to hold precious metals and non - ferrous commodities. The market underestimates the Fed's politicalization, and the US dollar is expected to be weaker in 2026 [5][76].

Group 1 - Trump's governance style has transformed political power into a personal tool, challenging traditional boundaries of the U.S. political system [2] - During his first term from 2017 to 2020, Trump pressured the Federal Reserve to implement loose monetary policies, indicating his intent to politicize central bank policies [3] - The recent attempt to dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook marks the first instance in U.S. history where a president has sought to remove an incumbent Fed governor, reflecting a significant power struggle [4] Group 2 - ECB President Christine Lagarde warned that if Trump successfully replaces Powell or Cook, it could trigger a financial crisis comparable to a "financial nuclear explosion" [6] - Lagarde highlighted the dangers of politicizing the Fed, citing historical examples where political interference led to severe economic consequences, such as the 1970s inflation crisis [8] - The current global debt level exceeding $307 trillion raises concerns that politicized monetary policy could lead to a debt crisis worse than that of 2008 [8] Group 3 - The uncertainty caused by Trump's tariff policies has already led U.S. companies to delay approximately $230 billion in investment plans, affecting global supply chains [9] - The ongoing tug-of-war between professionalism and populism in economic governance is exemplified by Trump's "presidential dominance" approach, which undermines the traditional firewall between the Fed and the White House [10] - The independence of central banks is crucial during crises, as demonstrated by the Fed's swift response during the 2008 financial crisis, which was based on professional judgment rather than political calculations [11]

Core Viewpoint - The dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by President Trump is perceived as a sign of increasing politicization of the Federal Reserve, which is seen as unfavorable for the US dollar. However, the dollar's reaction has been mild so far [1] Group 1 - Lisa Cook is appealing her dismissal, suggesting that her departure will not significantly impact the upcoming Federal Reserve meetings [1] - The immediate focus remains on economic data rather than political changes, indicating that the effects of Cook's dismissal may only become apparent in the long term [1] - The true consequences of the Federal Reserve's politicization may not be felt until after Jerome Powell's term ends in May 2026 [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS indicates that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at Jackson Hole displayed a "classic Powell style," signaling an increased probability of a rate cut in September to counteract the drag from trade tariffs, but lacking a mid-term policy framework for an economy facing structural changes [1] Group 1 - The market welcomed the hints of a rate cut, but UBS believes the core message is essentially "data-dependent rhetoric wrapped in fancy language" [1] - UBS pointed out that Powell did not provide a stronger defense of the Federal Reserve's independence, which may lead to potential political influences from Trump on the Fed [1] Group 2 - Potential consequences of a politicized Federal Reserve include: 1) Reignition of inflation uncertainty 2) An increase in actual borrowing costs by an entire percentage point 3) Ripple effects on fiscal policy, corporate investment, housing affordability, household savings, and speculative activities [1]

Group 1 - The politicalization of the Federal Reserve has intensified in recent months, leading to a higher risk premium in the U.S. [1] - Rising budget deficits and debt, along with unpredictable government actions, are causing investors to reassess their exposure to the U.S. dollar [1] - Although recent developments had a slight positive impact on the front-end yields of government bonds, this may not last if the Federal Reserve compromises under pressure from the Trump administration to lower interest rates amid persistent inflation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The outlook for the US dollar is contingent on the underlying factors driving interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1 - Analysts from Deutsche Bank suggest that if the bets on rate cuts are driven by limited inflation impacts from US tariffs, the dollar may rebound in the short term [1] - Conversely, if these expectations stem from the assumption that the Federal Reserve will yield to political pressure to cut rates, the dollar could face further declines [1] - The market widely anticipates that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in July [1] Group 2 - Any dissenting votes from policymakers against maintaining the current rate, in favor of cuts, could heighten concerns about the Federal Reserve becoming more politicized [1]

Core Viewpoint - Trump's recent comments reflect his long-standing belief that the Federal Reserve should respond more actively to presidential demands, indicating a perception of the Fed as politicized rather than independent [1] Group 1: Political Manipulation - Trump and his advisors claim that the Federal Reserve has become politicized and is not detached from Washington politics [1] - Trump accuses Powell of supporting Biden during his term but not providing similar support for his own agenda [1] Group 2: Economic Analysis - Analysts suggest that Trump's attacks on the Federal Reserve are an attempt to find a scapegoat for the impending economic downturn [1] - Phil Gramm, a Texas Republican senator, notes that people often look for someone to rescue them or to blame [1] - Neil Dutta, head of economic research at Renaissance Macro Research, argues that Trump's view lacks logical consistency, as he believed last year that the economy did not need rate cuts, but now calls for larger cuts [1]