来源：金融界AI电报 瑞穗证券分析师瓦拉坦说，由于美联储降息的可能性大幅上升，美元保持稳定，但随着哈塞特被提名为 下一任美联储主席的可能性大幅上升，美元汇率出现下跌。市场似乎并未质疑美联储的独立性，美联储 威廉姆斯、沃勒和戴利都支持12月降息。不过，瓦拉坦指出，投资者正在消化哈塞特可能导致美联储政 治化的因素。他说，"哈塞特效应"可能会给美元蒙上阴影，并补充说，只要美联储主席任命的这种政治 上顺从的看法没有消除，美元的贬值风险仍然很高。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent developments regarding the Federal Reserve, including the Senate approval of Stephen Milan and the court's rejection of Trump's request to remove Governor Cook, highlight the ongoing political struggle over monetary policy in the U.S. [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Developments - Stephen Milan's appointment as a Federal Reserve Governor allows him to participate in upcoming monetary policy meetings, indicating Trump's efforts to influence the Fed are met with mixed results [1] - The U.S. Court of Appeals rejected Trump's attempt to remove Governor Cook, allowing him to remain until a final decision is made by the Supreme Court [1] Group 2: Trump's Economic Policy and Interest Rates - Trump is pushing for interest rate cuts to weaken the dollar, reduce corporate financing costs, and alleviate government debt burdens, viewing these cuts as essential for implementing his economic policies [2][3] - The Federal Reserve has paused its interest rate cuts due to concerns over inflation, despite strong consumer demand and limited signs of recession [2] Group 3: Employment and Inflation Data - Recent adjustments to employment data show a downward revision of 911,000 jobs, indicating that previous employment strength may have been overstated [3] - The August non-farm payroll report showed only 22,000 new jobs added, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, raising concerns about the labor market [3] Group 4: Market Expectations for Rate Cuts - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in September are high, with a 96.1% probability, while a 50 basis point cut is seen as unlikely [4] - The consensus among Federal Reserve members is leaning towards a cautious approach to rate cuts, with only new member Milan advocating for a more aggressive reduction [4] Group 5: Future Rate Cut Projections - Market forecasts suggest a likelihood of 50, 75, and 100 basis point cuts by 2025 at 24.1%, 71.6%, and 2.9% respectively, indicating a cautious approach to future rate cuts [5] - Despite some signs of slowing employment, consumer spending remains robust, reflecting the resilience of the U.S. economy [5] Group 6: Inflation Concerns - Current inflation data shows the CPI rose by 2.9% year-on-year, with core CPI also at 3.1%, indicating that inflation concerns persist despite expectations of rate cuts [6] - The yield curve reflects market skepticism about the effectiveness of rate cuts in fully stimulating economic activity, with short-term rates falling while long-term rates remain high [6] Group 7: Political Influence on the Federal Reserve - Trump's influence over the Federal Reserve is expected to increase as he appoints new members aligned with his economic policies, potentially leading to more aggressive rate cuts [7] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is increasingly challenged by political pressures, raising concerns about the future of its monetary policy decisions [7]

Core Viewpoint - KKR co-founder Kravis stated that politicizing the Federal Reserve would be a "huge mistake" [1] Group 1 - Kravis emphasized the importance of maintaining the Federal Reserve's independence from political influence [1] - He warned that any political interference could undermine the credibility and effectiveness of monetary policy [1] - The statement reflects concerns among financial leaders regarding the potential impact of political pressures on economic stability [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is bearish, with an expected decline of 5 - 15% in the short, medium, and long - term [7]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The politicalization of the Federal Reserve is a special product of special times. To solve serious problems of the government or cope with extreme economic pressure, the Fed will sacrifice relatively unimportant parts of monetary policy (usually inflation and the value of the domestic currency) to achieve relatively low interest rates and economic growth [4][75]. - It is expected that the Fed will use inflation to exchange for economic growth again. The US dollar index will trend downwards due to long - term low real interest rates and high inflation. The market underestimates the degree of the Fed's politicalization, and the US dollar is expected to be weaker in 2026 [3][5][76]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Fed Politicalization 3.1.1 Fed Politicalization during World War II - To finance the war, the US government needed to issue a large amount of national debt and have huge fiscal expenditures, which would lead to high interest rates and high inflation. The Fed implemented the yield curve control (YCC) policy, setting the 10 - year interest rate cap at 2.5% and the short - term Treasury bill rate at 0.375% [14][17]. - The YCC policy stabilized the interest rate level and reduced the government's financing cost, but it could not solve the inflation problem. The US also adopted production control, price and wage control, increased marginal tax rates, and export and foreign exchange controls, but inflation still rose significantly [18]. - The high inflation was mainly caused by the government's fiscal deficit. The Fed printed money to fill the gap. The US was in a wartime economic state of high deficit, high inflation, high money growth, and low unemployment. The Fed gave up inflation management to serve government financing [25][32]. - After the war, the Fed and the Treasury had a conflict over interest rate control. In 1951, the Fed won, and the Treasury absorbed investors' losses by replacing long - term US bonds [33]. 3.1.2 Fed Politicalization during the Stagflation Period in the 1970s - Nixon pressured Fed Chairman Burns to prioritize the economy over inflation. Burns cut interest rates, which helped Nixon's re - election but led to rising inflation. Later, the Fed raised interest rates, but inflation was not well - controlled due to the loss of credibility [34][37]. - Carter also pressured the Fed to maintain low interest rates to reduce unemployment. The Fed's monetary policy remained loose, and the M1 growth rate was very high, resulting in long - term high inflation [39]. - The Fed's politicalization in the 1970s led to a large - scale stagflation. The US dollar weakened significantly, financial assets performed poorly, and commodities, especially precious metals, outperformed stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange. This also promoted the replacement of Keynesianism with monetarism and the rise of central bank independence [49]. 3.1.3 Post - COVID - 19 Fed Politicalization Trend - The COVID - 19 pandemic led to a collapse of the global economic growth framework. The US government's large - scale fiscal stimulus increased government debt and inflation. The Fed raised interest rates, increasing the government's debt interest payments and making the US debt problem more prominent [51]. - The Trump administration's tariff policy increased inflation pressure. The Fed is expected to prioritize maintaining low interest rates, tolerate inflation, and may introduce yield curve control to reduce the interest rate center and relieve the US debt pressure [54][62]. - The current US economic situation has differences and similarities with the previous two Fed politicalization periods. The Fed's politicalization degree is expected to increase gradually, and the introduction of yield curve control will be a sign of accelerated politicalization [63]. 3.2 Summary - The Fed's politicalization is a special response to special economic situations. It sacrifices inflation and the value of the domestic currency for low interest rates and economic growth. The process is painful for the public, and the Fed's reputation is at risk [4][75]. 3.3 Investment Suggestions - Due to the expected long - term low real interest rates and high inflation, the US dollar index will trend downwards. It is recommended to hold precious metals and non - ferrous commodities. The market underestimates the Fed's politicalization, and the US dollar is expected to be weaker in 2026 [5][76].

Group 1 - Trump's governance style has transformed political power into a personal tool, challenging traditional boundaries of the U.S. political system [2] - During his first term from 2017 to 2020, Trump pressured the Federal Reserve to implement loose monetary policies, indicating his intent to politicize central bank policies [3] - The recent attempt to dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook marks the first instance in U.S. history where a president has sought to remove an incumbent Fed governor, reflecting a significant power struggle [4] Group 2 - ECB President Christine Lagarde warned that if Trump successfully replaces Powell or Cook, it could trigger a financial crisis comparable to a "financial nuclear explosion" [6] - Lagarde highlighted the dangers of politicizing the Fed, citing historical examples where political interference led to severe economic consequences, such as the 1970s inflation crisis [8] - The current global debt level exceeding $307 trillion raises concerns that politicized monetary policy could lead to a debt crisis worse than that of 2008 [8] Group 3 - The uncertainty caused by Trump's tariff policies has already led U.S. companies to delay approximately $230 billion in investment plans, affecting global supply chains [9] - The ongoing tug-of-war between professionalism and populism in economic governance is exemplified by Trump's "presidential dominance" approach, which undermines the traditional firewall between the Fed and the White House [10] - The independence of central banks is crucial during crises, as demonstrated by the Fed's swift response during the 2008 financial crisis, which was based on professional judgment rather than political calculations [11]

Core Viewpoint - The dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by President Trump is perceived as a sign of increasing politicization of the Federal Reserve, which is seen as unfavorable for the US dollar. However, the dollar's reaction has been mild so far [1] Group 1 - Lisa Cook is appealing her dismissal, suggesting that her departure will not significantly impact the upcoming Federal Reserve meetings [1] - The immediate focus remains on economic data rather than political changes, indicating that the effects of Cook's dismissal may only become apparent in the long term [1] - The true consequences of the Federal Reserve's politicization may not be felt until after Jerome Powell's term ends in May 2026 [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS indicates that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at Jackson Hole displayed a "classic Powell style," signaling an increased probability of a rate cut in September to counteract the drag from trade tariffs, but lacking a mid-term policy framework for an economy facing structural changes [1] Group 1 - The market welcomed the hints of a rate cut, but UBS believes the core message is essentially "data-dependent rhetoric wrapped in fancy language" [1] - UBS pointed out that Powell did not provide a stronger defense of the Federal Reserve's independence, which may lead to potential political influences from Trump on the Fed [1] Group 2 - Potential consequences of a politicized Federal Reserve include: 1) Reignition of inflation uncertainty 2) An increase in actual borrowing costs by an entire percentage point 3) Ripple effects on fiscal policy, corporate investment, housing affordability, household savings, and speculative activities [1]

Group 1 - The politicalization of the Federal Reserve has intensified in recent months, leading to a higher risk premium in the U.S. [1] - Rising budget deficits and debt, along with unpredictable government actions, are causing investors to reassess their exposure to the U.S. dollar [1] - Although recent developments had a slight positive impact on the front-end yields of government bonds, this may not last if the Federal Reserve compromises under pressure from the Trump administration to lower interest rates amid persistent inflation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The outlook for the US dollar is contingent on the underlying factors driving interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1 - Analysts from Deutsche Bank suggest that if the bets on rate cuts are driven by limited inflation impacts from US tariffs, the dollar may rebound in the short term [1] - Conversely, if these expectations stem from the assumption that the Federal Reserve will yield to political pressure to cut rates, the dollar could face further declines [1] - The market widely anticipates that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in July [1] Group 2 - Any dissenting votes from policymakers against maintaining the current rate, in favor of cuts, could heighten concerns about the Federal Reserve becoming more politicized [1]

Core Viewpoint - Trump's recent comments reflect his long-standing belief that the Federal Reserve should respond more actively to presidential demands, indicating a perception of the Fed as politicized rather than independent [1] Group 1: Political Manipulation - Trump and his advisors claim that the Federal Reserve has become politicized and is not detached from Washington politics [1] - Trump accuses Powell of supporting Biden during his term but not providing similar support for his own agenda [1] Group 2: Economic Analysis - Analysts suggest that Trump's attacks on the Federal Reserve are an attempt to find a scapegoat for the impending economic downturn [1] - Phil Gramm, a Texas Republican senator, notes that people often look for someone to rescue them or to blame [1] - Neil Dutta, head of economic research at Renaissance Macro Research, argues that Trump's view lacks logical consistency, as he believed last year that the economy did not need rate cuts, but now calls for larger cuts [1]