Group 1 - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, with future easing policies dependent on economic data performance [1] - Despite two dovish votes against the decision, the overall stance is neutral, indicating a stable economic growth and labor market [1] - Max Stainton from Fidelity International predicts three rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is higher than current market expectations [1] Group 2 - Regardless of the next Federal Reserve chair, a policy stance that is accommodative and tolerant of higher inflation risks is likely [2] - The key difference will be whether the Fed will use its balance sheet as an active policy tool, which will significantly impact the medium to long-term financial markets [2] - Fidelity International remains optimistic about equities and has shifted to favor government bonds, as economic growth concerns are beginning to outweigh inflation risks [2]

Core Viewpoint - The politicization of the Federal Reserve could harm its credibility [1] Group 1 - Senator Moran emphasizes that making the Federal Reserve a political entity would damage its reputation and trustworthiness [1]

Group 1 - London silver is currently trading above $62.38, with an opening price of $61.79 and a current price of $62.47, reflecting a 0.74% increase [1] - The highest price reached today was $62.81, while the lowest was $61.72, indicating a short-term oscillating trend in the market [1] Group 2 - Kevin Hassett stated that if he were to become the Federal Reserve Chairman, he would maintain communication with President Trump, but Trump's opinions would not hold equal weight in the decision-making process [2] - Hassett's comments provide a temporary "firewall" for the dollar, countering some of the negative sentiment caused by concerns over the politicization of the Federal Reserve [2] - The future trajectory of the dollar will depend on the independence of the eventual chairman, the degree of divergence between actual policy decisions and data, and the persistence of political interference [2] Group 3 - The weekly chart indicates that there is no upper resistance after breaking through $64.67, with the current trading range between $45.55 and $64.67 [3] - The 50% level at $55.10 is significantly below the current trading price, while the 52-week moving average at $38.40 confirms a long-term upward trend [3] - Strong data may prolong consolidation, but the lack of weekly resistance and ongoing supply tightness suggests a bullish outlook, with potential pullbacks attracting new buying interest [3]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting is expected to be one of the most contentious in years, serving as a pressure test for financial markets and indicating the direction of U.S. monetary policy through 2026 [1] Group 1: Market Expectations - The market is almost certain that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates, with expectations for a 25 basis point cut to a range of 3.50%-3.75% rising from 30% to 87% in the past three weeks [1] - Major investment banks like Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, and Bank of America have adjusted their forecasts to reflect a likely rate cut at the December 9-10 meeting [1] Group 2: Internal Disagreements - Analysts predict that up to five of the twelve voting members of the FOMC will hold differing opinions, highlighting increasing political pressures within the Federal Reserve [2] - The FOMC has not seen three or more dissenting votes in a single meeting since 2019, and such occurrences have only happened nine times since 1990 [2] Group 3: Political Influences - President Trump has been vocal about his desire for lower borrowing costs ahead of the midterm elections, indicating that support for immediate rate cuts will be a criterion for selecting the next Fed chair [5] - The political pressure on the Federal Reserve is raising concerns about its independence, with recent comments from Treasury Secretary suggesting potential changes in how regional Fed presidents are appointed [5] Group 4: Market Reactions - The market is showing increased sensitivity, with rising volatility reflected in short-term interest rate options and a steepening yield curve [4] - Despite expectations for a rate cut, the futures market indicates that the Fed's total rate reduction by the end of next year may only be around 75 basis points [4] Group 5: Investor Sentiment - Some investors are reconsidering their allocations and reducing investments in the U.S. due to perceived risks to the credibility of the U.S. monetary system amid evolving political dynamics [6] - Concerns about the political landscape's impact on the Federal Reserve are influencing investment decisions, as some clients are becoming more cautious [6]

Group 1 - The current trading price of London gold is around $4,196.45 per ounce, with a slight increase of 0.18% [1] - The daily trading range for London gold is between $4,188.64 and $4,197.01 per ounce, indicating a short-term sideways trend [1] Group 2 - Concerns have arisen among investors regarding the potential nomination of Kevin Hassett as the successor to the Federal Reserve Chair, which could lead to a decrease in borrowing costs [2] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is seen as crucial for the stability of the U.S. economy, and political pressures could undermine this independence [2] - The structure of the Federal Reserve helps mitigate political influence, as the Chair is only one of twelve voting members [2] Group 3 - The MACD indicator for London gold shows a bearish crossover, indicating a reduction in short-term upward momentum [3] - The price is at the end of a converging triangle pattern, suggesting market caution ahead of significant events [3] - The RSI indicator is at 67, nearing the overbought zone, while the KDJ indicator is poised to open, indicating potential for a market shift [3]

Group 1 - The article discusses rumors about Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell potentially resigning, which originated from social media but lacks mainstream media coverage or official confirmation [2] - Powell is scheduled to speak at a lecture event at the Hoover Institution, not an emergency meeting, indicating that the rumors may be unfounded [4] - Powell's term as Chairman will end on May 15, 2026, and he has publicly stated he will not resign early, maintaining his commitment to his role [5] Group 2 - White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett expressed willingness to accept the position of Federal Reserve Chairman if nominated by Trump, indicating potential political shifts in the Fed's leadership [7][8] - Analysts suggest that Hassett's nomination could lead to a more politicized Federal Reserve, impacting the dollar's value negatively [9] - Goldman Sachs predicts an 85%-86% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in the upcoming December meeting, driven by a weakening job market and policy risk management [11]

Core Viewpoint - The potential for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has significantly increased, leading to a stable dollar, but the nomination of Hassett as the next Fed chair has caused a decline in the dollar's exchange rate [1] Group 1 - Analysts note that the market does not seem to question the independence of the Federal Reserve, with support for a December rate cut from officials like Williams, Waller, and Daly [1] - The "Hassett effect" may cast a shadow over the dollar, as investors are digesting the political implications of his potential appointment [1] - The risk of dollar depreciation remains high as long as the perception of political compliance in the Fed chair appointment is not eliminated [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent developments regarding the Federal Reserve, including the Senate approval of Stephen Milan and the court's rejection of Trump's request to remove Governor Cook, highlight the ongoing political struggle over monetary policy in the U.S. [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Developments - Stephen Milan's appointment as a Federal Reserve Governor allows him to participate in upcoming monetary policy meetings, indicating Trump's efforts to influence the Fed are met with mixed results [1] - The U.S. Court of Appeals rejected Trump's attempt to remove Governor Cook, allowing him to remain until a final decision is made by the Supreme Court [1] Group 2: Trump's Economic Policy and Interest Rates - Trump is pushing for interest rate cuts to weaken the dollar, reduce corporate financing costs, and alleviate government debt burdens, viewing these cuts as essential for implementing his economic policies [2][3] - The Federal Reserve has paused its interest rate cuts due to concerns over inflation, despite strong consumer demand and limited signs of recession [2] Group 3: Employment and Inflation Data - Recent adjustments to employment data show a downward revision of 911,000 jobs, indicating that previous employment strength may have been overstated [3] - The August non-farm payroll report showed only 22,000 new jobs added, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, raising concerns about the labor market [3] Group 4: Market Expectations for Rate Cuts - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in September are high, with a 96.1% probability, while a 50 basis point cut is seen as unlikely [4] - The consensus among Federal Reserve members is leaning towards a cautious approach to rate cuts, with only new member Milan advocating for a more aggressive reduction [4] Group 5: Future Rate Cut Projections - Market forecasts suggest a likelihood of 50, 75, and 100 basis point cuts by 2025 at 24.1%, 71.6%, and 2.9% respectively, indicating a cautious approach to future rate cuts [5] - Despite some signs of slowing employment, consumer spending remains robust, reflecting the resilience of the U.S. economy [5] Group 6: Inflation Concerns - Current inflation data shows the CPI rose by 2.9% year-on-year, with core CPI also at 3.1%, indicating that inflation concerns persist despite expectations of rate cuts [6] - The yield curve reflects market skepticism about the effectiveness of rate cuts in fully stimulating economic activity, with short-term rates falling while long-term rates remain high [6] Group 7: Political Influence on the Federal Reserve - Trump's influence over the Federal Reserve is expected to increase as he appoints new members aligned with his economic policies, potentially leading to more aggressive rate cuts [7] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is increasingly challenged by political pressures, raising concerns about the future of its monetary policy decisions [7]

Core Viewpoint - KKR co-founder Kravis stated that politicizing the Federal Reserve would be a "huge mistake" [1] Group 1 - Kravis emphasized the importance of maintaining the Federal Reserve's independence from political influence [1] - He warned that any political interference could undermine the credibility and effectiveness of monetary policy [1] - The statement reflects concerns among financial leaders regarding the potential impact of political pressures on economic stability [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is bearish, with an expected decline of 5 - 15% in the short, medium, and long - term [7]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The politicalization of the Federal Reserve is a special product of special times. To solve serious problems of the government or cope with extreme economic pressure, the Fed will sacrifice relatively unimportant parts of monetary policy (usually inflation and the value of the domestic currency) to achieve relatively low interest rates and economic growth [4][75]. - It is expected that the Fed will use inflation to exchange for economic growth again. The US dollar index will trend downwards due to long - term low real interest rates and high inflation. The market underestimates the degree of the Fed's politicalization, and the US dollar is expected to be weaker in 2026 [3][5][76]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Fed Politicalization 3.1.1 Fed Politicalization during World War II - To finance the war, the US government needed to issue a large amount of national debt and have huge fiscal expenditures, which would lead to high interest rates and high inflation. The Fed implemented the yield curve control (YCC) policy, setting the 10 - year interest rate cap at 2.5% and the short - term Treasury bill rate at 0.375% [14][17]. - The YCC policy stabilized the interest rate level and reduced the government's financing cost, but it could not solve the inflation problem. The US also adopted production control, price and wage control, increased marginal tax rates, and export and foreign exchange controls, but inflation still rose significantly [18]. - The high inflation was mainly caused by the government's fiscal deficit. The Fed printed money to fill the gap. The US was in a wartime economic state of high deficit, high inflation, high money growth, and low unemployment. The Fed gave up inflation management to serve government financing [25][32]. - After the war, the Fed and the Treasury had a conflict over interest rate control. In 1951, the Fed won, and the Treasury absorbed investors' losses by replacing long - term US bonds [33]. 3.1.2 Fed Politicalization during the Stagflation Period in the 1970s - Nixon pressured Fed Chairman Burns to prioritize the economy over inflation. Burns cut interest rates, which helped Nixon's re - election but led to rising inflation. Later, the Fed raised interest rates, but inflation was not well - controlled due to the loss of credibility [34][37]. - Carter also pressured the Fed to maintain low interest rates to reduce unemployment. The Fed's monetary policy remained loose, and the M1 growth rate was very high, resulting in long - term high inflation [39]. - The Fed's politicalization in the 1970s led to a large - scale stagflation. The US dollar weakened significantly, financial assets performed poorly, and commodities, especially precious metals, outperformed stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange. This also promoted the replacement of Keynesianism with monetarism and the rise of central bank independence [49]. 3.1.3 Post - COVID - 19 Fed Politicalization Trend - The COVID - 19 pandemic led to a collapse of the global economic growth framework. The US government's large - scale fiscal stimulus increased government debt and inflation. The Fed raised interest rates, increasing the government's debt interest payments and making the US debt problem more prominent [51]. - The Trump administration's tariff policy increased inflation pressure. The Fed is expected to prioritize maintaining low interest rates, tolerate inflation, and may introduce yield curve control to reduce the interest rate center and relieve the US debt pressure [54][62]. - The current US economic situation has differences and similarities with the previous two Fed politicalization periods. The Fed's politicalization degree is expected to increase gradually, and the introduction of yield curve control will be a sign of accelerated politicalization [63]. 3.2 Summary - The Fed's politicalization is a special response to special economic situations. It sacrifices inflation and the value of the domestic currency for low interest rates and economic growth. The process is painful for the public, and the Fed's reputation is at risk [4][75]. 3.3 Investment Suggestions - Due to the expected long - term low real interest rates and high inflation, the US dollar index will trend downwards. It is recommended to hold precious metals and non - ferrous commodities. The market underestimates the Fed's politicalization, and the US dollar is expected to be weaker in 2026 [5][76].