今日周一(12月15日)亚盘时段，伦敦银目前交投于62.38一线上方，今日开盘于61.79美元/盎司，截至发 稿，伦敦银暂报62.47美元/盎司，上涨0.74%，最高触及62.81美元/盎司，最低下探61.72美元/盎司，目 前来看，伦敦银盘内短线偏向震荡走势。 【最新伦敦银行情解析】 【要闻速递】 从结构角度来看，周线图显示突破64.67美元后没有上方阻力。目前的短期区间跨越45.55美元至64.67美 元，使伦敦银价格稳定在该区间的上端。50%水平55.10美元仍然远低于当前交易，而52周移动均线 38.40美元继续确认主要的长期上升趋势，而非作为近期参考。 凯文.哈塞特上周日(12月14日)表示，如果他担任美联储主席，将继续与特朗普保持沟通。但当被问及特 朗普对利率的看法是否会与美联储利率制定委员会成员的意见具有"同等分量"时，哈塞特回答 称："不，他的意见不会占权重。" 强劲的数据可能会延长盘整，但缺乏周阻力位和持续的供应紧张使近期偏向看涨，回调可能会吸引新的 买入兴趣。 哈塞特继续说道："他的观点只有在合理且基于数据时才重要，然后当你向委员会汇报时说总统提出了 这个论点，我认为这是个非常有说服力的论 ...

作者：朱宇，金十数据 本周的美联储政策会议预计将是多年以来争议最大的一次，它更像是一场针对金融市场的压力测试，以 此观察2026年美国货币政策的辩论将呈现何种走向。 摩根士丹利、摩根大通和美国银行等投资银行纷纷做出反应，修正了其预测，认为12月9日至10日的会 议将会降息。 然而，分析师预计，在FOMC的12名票委中，多达5人将持有不同意见，这进一步强化了市场中关于美 联储正变得愈发政治化的论调。 自2019年以来，该政策委员会从未在单次会议中出现过三张或以上的反对票，而这种情况自1990年以来 也仅发生过九次。分析师目前预计，这种分歧局面将会持续下去。 苏格兰长线投资管理公司Baillie Gifford的全球债券主管Sally Greig表示："你看到的分歧越多，且这种分 歧越公开，就越让人质疑美联储在多大程度上愿意变得更加政治化。这就引发了疑问：美联储到底多倾 向于'宁鸽勿鹰'，以换取自身的安宁？他们对丢掉饭碗的恐惧，究竟有多深？" 特朗普提名的美联储七人理事会成员一直倾向于鸽派。他的经济顾问凯文·哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）是明 年接替美联储主席鲍威尔的热门人选，他已呼吁降低利率。另一位特朗普 ...

今日周二(12月9日)亚盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于4195美元附近，截至发稿，伦敦金最新报4196.45美元/ 盎司，涨幅0.18%，最高上探至4197.09美元/盎司，最低触及4187.50美元/盎司。目前来看，伦敦金短线 偏向震荡走势。伦敦金日内波动区间仅4188.64-4197.01美元/盎司。 摘要今日周二(12月9日)亚盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于4195美元附近，截至发稿，伦敦金最新报4196.45 美元/盎司，涨幅0.18%，最高上探至4197.09美元/盎司，最低触及4187.50美元/盎司。目前来看，伦敦金 短线偏向震荡走势。伦敦金日内波动区间仅4188.64-4197.01美元/盎司。 此外，美联储的结构有助于防范政治影响，主席只是12名投票者之一。特朗普的经济顾问团队也在调 整，包括NEC、CEA等职位。若选择哈塞特领导美联储，需另寻他人领导NEC，贝森特被提议兼任。米 兰作为CEA主席，目前临时休假担任美联储理事，其任期将于1月底届满，但承诺在继任者确认前不辞 职。 库克案也可能影响美联储董事会构成，若她败诉被撤换，特朗普将塑造董事会多数席位，进一步加剧市 场对美联储政治化的担忧。 【最新伦 ...

【导读】有关美联储主席的"小作文" 中国基金报记者 泰勒 11月30日晚间， 海外"小作文"称， 美联储主席 鲍威尔 将在周一美国东部时间晚7点举行的紧急会议上宣布辞职。 不过该"小道消息"只是在社交媒体上流传，并没有被主流媒体报道，尚 没有任何官方渠道或美联储自身提供任何证据支持这一说法。而 该消息 来自推特，推特上每个月鲍威尔都能辞职个几次。 此外，根据美联储官网的日程表，鲍威尔在美国时间周一晚上8点，的确有一场演讲活动，但并非紧急会议。在胡佛研究所举办的乔治·P· 舒尔茨纪念讲座上，鲍威尔将与迈克尔·博斯金和康多莉扎·赖斯一起，就乔治·舒尔茨及其在经济政策方面的贡献进行简短讲话和小组讨 论。 | 下午12:00 | 演讲 -- 主管监管的副主席米歇尔·W·鲍曼 4 | | --- | --- | | | 银行监管 | | | 在佛罗里达州银行家协会领导力午餐会（线上）上 | | 晚上8点 | 主席杰罗姆·H·鲍威尔致辞 | | | ■◀ 观看直播 【 | | | 迈克尔·博斯金和康多莉扎·赖斯就乔治·舒尔茨及其经济 | | | 政策贡献发表简短讲话并进行小组讨论 | | | 在加州斯坦福胡佛研究所乔治· ...

来源：金融界AI电报 瑞穗证券分析师瓦拉坦说，由于美联储降息的可能性大幅上升，美元保持稳定，但随着哈塞特被提名为 下一任美联储主席的可能性大幅上升，美元汇率出现下跌。市场似乎并未质疑美联储的独立性，美联储 威廉姆斯、沃勒和戴利都支持12月降息。不过，瓦拉坦指出，投资者正在消化哈塞特可能导致美联储政 治化的因素。他说，"哈塞特效应"可能会给美元蒙上阴影，并补充说，只要美联储主席任命的这种政治 上顺从的看法没有消除，美元的贬值风险仍然很高。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent developments regarding the Federal Reserve, including the Senate approval of Stephen Milan and the court's rejection of Trump's request to remove Governor Cook, highlight the ongoing political struggle over monetary policy in the U.S. [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Developments - Stephen Milan's appointment as a Federal Reserve Governor allows him to participate in upcoming monetary policy meetings, indicating Trump's efforts to influence the Fed are met with mixed results [1] - The U.S. Court of Appeals rejected Trump's attempt to remove Governor Cook, allowing him to remain until a final decision is made by the Supreme Court [1] Group 2: Trump's Economic Policy and Interest Rates - Trump is pushing for interest rate cuts to weaken the dollar, reduce corporate financing costs, and alleviate government debt burdens, viewing these cuts as essential for implementing his economic policies [2][3] - The Federal Reserve has paused its interest rate cuts due to concerns over inflation, despite strong consumer demand and limited signs of recession [2] Group 3: Employment and Inflation Data - Recent adjustments to employment data show a downward revision of 911,000 jobs, indicating that previous employment strength may have been overstated [3] - The August non-farm payroll report showed only 22,000 new jobs added, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, raising concerns about the labor market [3] Group 4: Market Expectations for Rate Cuts - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in September are high, with a 96.1% probability, while a 50 basis point cut is seen as unlikely [4] - The consensus among Federal Reserve members is leaning towards a cautious approach to rate cuts, with only new member Milan advocating for a more aggressive reduction [4] Group 5: Future Rate Cut Projections - Market forecasts suggest a likelihood of 50, 75, and 100 basis point cuts by 2025 at 24.1%, 71.6%, and 2.9% respectively, indicating a cautious approach to future rate cuts [5] - Despite some signs of slowing employment, consumer spending remains robust, reflecting the resilience of the U.S. economy [5] Group 6: Inflation Concerns - Current inflation data shows the CPI rose by 2.9% year-on-year, with core CPI also at 3.1%, indicating that inflation concerns persist despite expectations of rate cuts [6] - The yield curve reflects market skepticism about the effectiveness of rate cuts in fully stimulating economic activity, with short-term rates falling while long-term rates remain high [6] Group 7: Political Influence on the Federal Reserve - Trump's influence over the Federal Reserve is expected to increase as he appoints new members aligned with his economic policies, potentially leading to more aggressive rate cuts [7] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is increasingly challenged by political pressures, raising concerns about the future of its monetary policy decisions [7]

Core Viewpoint - KKR co-founder Kravis stated that politicizing the Federal Reserve would be a "huge mistake" [1] Group 1 - Kravis emphasized the importance of maintaining the Federal Reserve's independence from political influence [1] - He warned that any political interference could undermine the credibility and effectiveness of monetary policy [1] - The statement reflects concerns among financial leaders regarding the potential impact of political pressures on economic stability [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is bearish, with an expected decline of 5 - 15% in the short, medium, and long - term [7]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The politicalization of the Federal Reserve is a special product of special times. To solve serious problems of the government or cope with extreme economic pressure, the Fed will sacrifice relatively unimportant parts of monetary policy (usually inflation and the value of the domestic currency) to achieve relatively low interest rates and economic growth [4][75]. - It is expected that the Fed will use inflation to exchange for economic growth again. The US dollar index will trend downwards due to long - term low real interest rates and high inflation. The market underestimates the degree of the Fed's politicalization, and the US dollar is expected to be weaker in 2026 [3][5][76]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Fed Politicalization 3.1.1 Fed Politicalization during World War II - To finance the war, the US government needed to issue a large amount of national debt and have huge fiscal expenditures, which would lead to high interest rates and high inflation. The Fed implemented the yield curve control (YCC) policy, setting the 10 - year interest rate cap at 2.5% and the short - term Treasury bill rate at 0.375% [14][17]. - The YCC policy stabilized the interest rate level and reduced the government's financing cost, but it could not solve the inflation problem. The US also adopted production control, price and wage control, increased marginal tax rates, and export and foreign exchange controls, but inflation still rose significantly [18]. - The high inflation was mainly caused by the government's fiscal deficit. The Fed printed money to fill the gap. The US was in a wartime economic state of high deficit, high inflation, high money growth, and low unemployment. The Fed gave up inflation management to serve government financing [25][32]. - After the war, the Fed and the Treasury had a conflict over interest rate control. In 1951, the Fed won, and the Treasury absorbed investors' losses by replacing long - term US bonds [33]. 3.1.2 Fed Politicalization during the Stagflation Period in the 1970s - Nixon pressured Fed Chairman Burns to prioritize the economy over inflation. Burns cut interest rates, which helped Nixon's re - election but led to rising inflation. Later, the Fed raised interest rates, but inflation was not well - controlled due to the loss of credibility [34][37]. - Carter also pressured the Fed to maintain low interest rates to reduce unemployment. The Fed's monetary policy remained loose, and the M1 growth rate was very high, resulting in long - term high inflation [39]. - The Fed's politicalization in the 1970s led to a large - scale stagflation. The US dollar weakened significantly, financial assets performed poorly, and commodities, especially precious metals, outperformed stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange. This also promoted the replacement of Keynesianism with monetarism and the rise of central bank independence [49]. 3.1.3 Post - COVID - 19 Fed Politicalization Trend - The COVID - 19 pandemic led to a collapse of the global economic growth framework. The US government's large - scale fiscal stimulus increased government debt and inflation. The Fed raised interest rates, increasing the government's debt interest payments and making the US debt problem more prominent [51]. - The Trump administration's tariff policy increased inflation pressure. The Fed is expected to prioritize maintaining low interest rates, tolerate inflation, and may introduce yield curve control to reduce the interest rate center and relieve the US debt pressure [54][62]. - The current US economic situation has differences and similarities with the previous two Fed politicalization periods. The Fed's politicalization degree is expected to increase gradually, and the introduction of yield curve control will be a sign of accelerated politicalization [63]. 3.2 Summary - The Fed's politicalization is a special response to special economic situations. It sacrifices inflation and the value of the domestic currency for low interest rates and economic growth. The process is painful for the public, and the Fed's reputation is at risk [4][75]. 3.3 Investment Suggestions - Due to the expected long - term low real interest rates and high inflation, the US dollar index will trend downwards. It is recommended to hold precious metals and non - ferrous commodities. The market underestimates the Fed's politicalization, and the US dollar is expected to be weaker in 2026 [5][76].

Group 1 - Trump's governance style has transformed political power into a personal tool, challenging traditional boundaries of the U.S. political system [2] - During his first term from 2017 to 2020, Trump pressured the Federal Reserve to implement loose monetary policies, indicating his intent to politicize central bank policies [3] - The recent attempt to dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook marks the first instance in U.S. history where a president has sought to remove an incumbent Fed governor, reflecting a significant power struggle [4] Group 2 - ECB President Christine Lagarde warned that if Trump successfully replaces Powell or Cook, it could trigger a financial crisis comparable to a "financial nuclear explosion" [6] - Lagarde highlighted the dangers of politicizing the Fed, citing historical examples where political interference led to severe economic consequences, such as the 1970s inflation crisis [8] - The current global debt level exceeding $307 trillion raises concerns that politicized monetary policy could lead to a debt crisis worse than that of 2008 [8] Group 3 - The uncertainty caused by Trump's tariff policies has already led U.S. companies to delay approximately $230 billion in investment plans, affecting global supply chains [9] - The ongoing tug-of-war between professionalism and populism in economic governance is exemplified by Trump's "presidential dominance" approach, which undermines the traditional firewall between the Fed and the White House [10] - The independence of central banks is crucial during crises, as demonstrated by the Fed's swift response during the 2008 financial crisis, which was based on professional judgment rather than political calculations [11]

Core Viewpoint - The dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by President Trump is perceived as a sign of increasing politicization of the Federal Reserve, which is seen as unfavorable for the US dollar. However, the dollar's reaction has been mild so far [1] Group 1 - Lisa Cook is appealing her dismissal, suggesting that her departure will not significantly impact the upcoming Federal Reserve meetings [1] - The immediate focus remains on economic data rather than political changes, indicating that the effects of Cook's dismissal may only become apparent in the long term [1] - The true consequences of the Federal Reserve's politicization may not be felt until after Jerome Powell's term ends in May 2026 [1]