瑞银表示，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔的演讲展现了"经典的鲍威尔风格"——释放出9月降息概率 加大的信号以对冲贸易关税的拖累，但对于面临结构性变革的经济体却缺乏中期政策框架指引。市场对 降息暗示表示欢迎，但该行认为其核心信息本质上是"用华丽辞藻包裹的数据依赖论调"。瑞银指出，鲍 威尔未对美联储独立性作出更强有力辩护，而将来被特朗普政治化的美联储可能导致：①通胀不确定性 重燃；②实际借贷成本或额外增加整整一个百分点；③对财政政策、企业投资、住房可负担性、家庭储 蓄及投机活动产生连锁反应。 来源：滚动播报 ...

加拿大皇家 银行资本市场驻澳大利亚和新西兰首席经济学家王素林说，美联储的政治化在最近几个月 愈演愈烈，加剧了美国较高的风险溢价，而预算赤字和债务不断上升、政府难以预测、投资者正在重新 评估美元敞口，都加剧了这种溢价。尽管库克事态发展的条件反射性反应对国债的前端收益率略有正面 影响，但如果在特朗普政府的胁迫下，美联储最终妥协，在通胀居高不下的背景下降息，这种情况将不 会持续下去。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The outlook for the US dollar is contingent on the underlying factors driving interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1 - Analysts from Deutsche Bank suggest that if the bets on rate cuts are driven by limited inflation impacts from US tariffs, the dollar may rebound in the short term [1] - Conversely, if these expectations stem from the assumption that the Federal Reserve will yield to political pressure to cut rates, the dollar could face further declines [1] - The market widely anticipates that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in July [1] Group 2 - Any dissenting votes from policymakers against maintaining the current rate, in favor of cuts, could heighten concerns about the Federal Reserve becoming more politicized [1]