Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For PTA, last week the supply of PTA plants returned, and the downstream polyester load increased slightly. The supply - demand pattern of PTA weakened month - on - month. The activity of traders in the spot market decreased before the New Year's Day holiday, but some major suppliers were more active in shipping. The spot basis was strong. It is expected that the short - term PTA spot price will fluctuate following the cost side, and the spot basis will fluctuate in a range. Attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations and changes in upstream and downstream plants [5]. - For MEG, recently, affected by gale weather, some ships were delayed. It is expected that the port inventory will remain stable or slightly decrease at the beginning of this week. The polyester load has been running at around 90.8%, but the industrial chain transmission is poor, and the terminal load has still decreased locally. The demand - side support is general. MEG has seasonal inventory accumulation pressure in the near - month, and the overall intention of holding goods in the market is weak. It is expected that the price center of MEG will be sorted in a low range recently. Attention should be paid to oil prices and plant changes [7]. Summary by Directory 1.前日回顾 - Not provided in the content 2.每日提示 - **PTA Daily View** - Fundamental analysis on Wednesday: spot negotiation was scarce, January contracts were negotiated at a discount of 40 - 50 to the 05 contract, with a price negotiation range of 5060 - 5130, and the mainstream spot basis was 05 - 46 (neutral). The spot price was 5097, the 05 contract basis was - 13, and the futures price was at a premium (neutral). PTA factory inventory was 3.61 days, a decrease of 0.15 days month - on - month (bullish). The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average (bullish). The net long position of the main contract decreased (bullish) [5][6]. - **MEG Daily View** - Fundamental analysis on Wednesday: the price center of ethylene glycol weakened, and market negotiation was average. At night, the price of ethylene glycol fluctuated and sorted, with little negotiation in the market. During the day, the ethylene glycol futures price fluctuated downward, negotiation was stalemate in the morning, and buying interest picked up in the afternoon. The basis of next - week's spot strengthened to a discount of about 126 yuan/ton to the 05 contract, and there was little negotiation on this week's spot, with some low - level transactions at a discount of 155 - 156 yuan/ton to the 05 contract. The spot price was 3678, the 05 contract basis was - 125, and the futures price was at a premium (bearish). The total inventory in East China was 66.35 tons, an increase of 0.57 tons month - on - month (bearish). The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average (bearish). The net short position of the main contract increased (bearish). Recently affected by gale weather, some ships were delayed. It is expected that the port inventory will remain stable or slightly decrease at the beginning of this week. The polyester load has been running at around 90.8%, but the industrial chain transmission is poor, and the terminal load has still decreased locally. The demand - side support is general. MEG has seasonal inventory accumulation pressure in the near - month, and the overall intention of holding goods in the market is weak. It is expected that the price center of MEG will be sorted in a low range recently [7]. 3.今日关注 - **Influential Factors Summary** - Bullish factors: a 500,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Zhejiang has been shut down for maintenance as planned recently and is expected to restart around the end of January. Ineos' 1.1 - million - ton and Yisheng Ningbo's 2.2 - million - ton plants restarted [8]. - Bearish factors: Dushan Energy's 2.5 - million - ton plant restarted, Zhongtai's 1.2 - million - ton plant operated at a low load after restarting, and Weilian Chemical's 2.5 - million - ton plant increased its load [9]. - Current main logic and risk points: the short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and attention should be paid to the upper resistance level when the futures price rebounds [9]. 4.基本面数据 - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: shows the supply and demand data of PTA from January 2024 to December 2025, including PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and inventory [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: shows the supply and demand data of ethylene glycol from January 2024 to December 2025, including production, import, total supply, polyester consumption, and port inventory [11]. - **Price Data**: includes the price changes of various products such as naphtha, p - xylene, PTA, MEG, polyester fibers on December 31, 2025, compared with December 30, 2025, as well as the basis and profit data [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, the short - term processing margin remains low, some PTA devices are under maintenance, and polyester load is rising, so there is no pressure for inventory accumulation in August. However, oil prices are under pressure, and the cost side lacks support. It is expected that the PTA spot price will fluctuate in the short term, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the impact of the US - Russia talks on oil prices and changes in upstream and downstream devices [5]. - For MEG, last week, the polyester load rebounded to around 89.4%, and the load of looms and texturing machines also increased, so the demand support is gradually strengthening. During the recent price correction of MEG, polyester factories actively participated in pricing, and the port shipments will improve. The port inventory is not expected to rise significantly from August to September. It is expected that the MEG price will adjust within a range in the short term, and attention should be paid to the rebound speed of polyester load and commodity trends [6]. - The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and the upper resistance level should be monitored for the market rebound [9]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review - No relevant content provided 3.2 Daily Tips PTA - **Fundamentals**: On Friday, some polyester factories made bids. The August cargo was negotiated and traded at a discount of 12 - 15 to the 09 contract, with some slightly higher, and the price negotiation range was around 4630 - 4680. The mid - September cargo was traded at 09 + 0, and the end - September cargo was traded at 09 + 5. The mainstream spot basis today is 09 - 13 [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4646, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 57, with the futures price at a discount [5]. - **Inventory**: The PTA factory inventory is 3.7 days, a decrease of 0.12 days compared to the previous period [5]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [5]. - **Main Position**: The net short position is increasing [5]. - **Expectation**: As mentioned above, short - term price fluctuation and basis range - bound movement are expected [5]. MEG - **Fundamentals**: On Friday, the price center of ethylene glycol was weakly sorted, and the market trading was average. The spot was negotiated at a premium of 85 - 89 yuan/ton to the 09 contract, and the basis weakened slightly in the afternoon. In the US dollar market, the external price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated at a low level, and the recent mainstream negotiation price for shipments was around 523 - 525 US dollars/ton, with light trading and mainly wait - and - see from buyers [6]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4465, and the basis of the 09 contract is 89, with the futures price at a discount [7]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in East China is 47.22 tons, an increase of 4.48 tons compared to the previous period [7]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [7]. - **Main Position**: The main net short position is increasing [7]. - **Expectation**: As mentioned above, short - term price range adjustment is expected [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus - No relevant content provided 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply - demand Balance Tables**: The report provides PTA and ethylene glycol supply - demand balance tables from January 2024 to December 2025, including data on production capacity, production, consumption, inventory, etc. [10][11] - **Price - related Data**: There are data on bottle - chip spot prices, production margins, capacity utilization rates, inventory, PTA and MEG spreads, basis, and processing margins from 2019 - 2025 [14][17][21] - **Inventory Analysis Data**: It includes inventory data of PTA, MEG, PET chips, polyester fibers, etc., from 2020 - 2025 [40][42][45] - **Capacity Utilization Data**: There are capacity utilization data of polyester upstream and downstream industries from 2020 - 2025 [51][55] - **Profit Data**: It provides profit data of PTA, MEG, and polyester fibers from 2022 - 2025 [61][62][65]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: The PTA futures fluctuated and declined yesterday, with the spot market negotiation atmosphere being average and the spot basis stabilizing. The recent macro - atmosphere has cooled down, commodities have corrected, the cost - side support is insufficient, and the downstream terminal demand is weak in the off - season. Although there have been many changes in PTA devices recently, the spot market liquidity is relatively abundant, and there is a lack of upward driving force for PTA. However, as the basis weakens, the buying sentiment of traders has slightly recovered, and the downward space is limited. Also, the PTA processing margin was once compressed below 200 this week, and attention should be paid to whether there are new variables in PTA devices under continuous low processing fees [5]. - MEG: On Thursday, the price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated downward, and the basis weakened. It is expected that the visible inventory of ethylene glycol may show a phased increase this week. In August, the fundamentals of ethylene glycol are mainly in a loose balance. The restart of Zhejiang Petrochemical Phase II 1 is moderately postponed to around the middle of the month, and the increase in domestic output is delayed. It is expected that ethylene glycol will be mainly adjusted in a wide range in the short term. Currently, the port inventory is low, and attention should be paid to the cost - side and device changes [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1.前日回顾 No information provided in the content. 3.2.每日提示 - **PTA** - **Fundamentals**: The PTA futures fluctuated and declined yesterday, with the spot market negotiation atmosphere being average and the spot basis stabilizing. The mainstream spot basis today is 09 - 20 [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4685, and the 09 - contract basis is - 3, with the futures price at a discount, which is neutral [6]. - **Inventory**: The PTA factory inventory is 3.7 days, a decrease of 0.12 days compared to the previous period, which is bullish [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [6]. - **Main positions**: The net position is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [5]. - **Expectation**: Lack of upward driving force, but limited downward space. Pay attention to whether there are new variables in PTA devices under continuous low processing fees [5]. - **MEG** - **Fundamentals**: On Thursday, the price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated downward, and the basis weakened. The night - session opened higher and adjusted, and the negotiation in the market was light. The market was weak in the morning, and the buying was average. The market stabilized in the afternoon, and the mainstream spot negotiation was around a premium of 67 - 75 yuan/ton over the 09 - contract. In US dollars, the center of the external market of ethylene glycol fluctuated weakly, and the recent shipments were negotiated around 522 - 527 US dollars/ton, with the negotiation being stalemate [7]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4475, and the 09 - contract basis is 79, with the futures price at a discount, which is neutral [7]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in the East China region is 47.22 tons, a decrease of 4.48 tons compared to the previous period, which is bearish [7]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [7]. - **Main positions**: The main net position is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [7]. - **Expectation**: The visible inventory may increase in the short term. It is expected to be adjusted in a wide range, and attention should be paid to the cost - side and device changes [7]. 3.3.今日关注 No information provided in the content. 3.4.基本面数据 - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Shows the supply - demand data of PTA from January 2024 to December 2025, including PTA capacity, output, import, total supply, polyester production, polyester demand for PTA, PTA export, total demand, and inventory, etc. [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Presents the supply - demand data of ethylene glycol from January 2024 to December 2025, including the operating rate, output, import, total supply, polyester production, polyester demand for ethylene glycol, total demand, and port inventory, etc. [11]. - **Price - Related Data**: There are historical price data of PET bottle chips, production profit data, capacity utilization rate data, inventory data, as well as PTA and MEG's inter - month spread, basis, spot spread data, and upstream and downstream operating rate data and profit data of the polyester industry [13][16][20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PTA: In the short - term, PTA's driving force is expected to be weak, and its price will fluctuate following costs. Pay attention to the progress of new PTA device production and the fluctuation of downstream polyester load [5]. - MEG: In the short - term, the price center of ethylene glycol is expected to move upward. In the future, focus on the power system recovery in Saudi Arabia. In a pessimistic scenario, the supply of ocean - going cargo will continue to shrink [7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review - No relevant content found 3.2 Daily Tips - PTA: On Friday, sporadic polyester factories made bids. The July cargo was traded around 09 + 25~32, with the price negotiation range around 4735~4830. The current mainstream spot basis is 09 + 29. The PTA plant inventory is 3.86 days, with no change from the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average. The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [5][6]. - MEG: On Friday, the price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated at a high level, and the market negotiation was fair. The port arrivals of ethylene glycol were limited in the middle of the month, and the visible inventory is expected to decline at the beginning of this week. From the fundamental perspective, the supply - demand of ethylene glycol will turn to a tight balance in July - August, which is significantly better than the previous market expectation. The current inventory in East China is 49.40 tons, an increase of 1.37 tons from the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average. The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [7][8]. 3.3 Today's Focus - The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Pay attention to the cost side, and after the market rebounds, pay attention to the upper resistance level [10]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It details the PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the total operating rate, production, supply, polyester production, consumption, and port inventory of ethylene glycol from January 2024 to December 2025 [12]. - **Price**: It includes the price changes of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester fibers from July 17 to July 18, 2025, as well as the changes in processing fees and profits [13]. - **Inventory Analysis**: It presents the inventory data of PTA, MEG, PET chips, and polyester fibers over the years [41][43][50]. - **Polyester Upstream and Downstream Start - up Rates**: It shows the start - up rates of PTA, PX, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms over the years [52][54][56] - **Profit Analysis**: It includes the processing fees of PTA, the production profits of MEG from different production methods, and the production profits of polyester fibers [60][63][65]