1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Tuesday, commodities stopped falling and rebounded, and rubber futures prices followed the upward trend. During the week before the Spring Festival holiday, capital re - allocation led to wide - range market fluctuations. The concentrated re - allocation of long - position funds in the metal sector, along with liquidity and leverage effects, triggered a systematic adjustment in commodities. Rubber futures prices oscillated sharply near the previous high. Economic data showed weakness, and the market's expectation of interest rate cuts increased. The average weekly price of Shanghai full - latex was 16,030 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 60; the average weekly price of 20 - grade Thai standard rubber in the Qingdao market was 1,950 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 6; the average weekly price of 20 - grade Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao market was 15,168 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 52. Overseas production areas entered the seasonal production - reduction season, with strong willingness of factories to purchase at higher prices, and raw material prices continued to rise, providing strong cost support. [4] - As of February 1, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.281 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 9,000 tons, an increase of 0.7%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber in China was 853,000 tons, an increase of 0.7%. The total social inventory of light - colored rubber in China was 428,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%. The total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in the Qingdao area was 591,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,200 tons, an increase of 1.23%. The bonded area inventory was 97,600 tons, an increase of 3.34%; the general trade inventory was 494,100 tons, an increase of 0.82%. China's natural rubber inventory increased, and the inventory in Qingdao increased due to the arrival volume. The inbound volume increased by 6.7% month - on - month. Vietnamese rubber tended to accumulate inventory, while Yunnan generally continued the trend of inventory reduction. [4] - In February, before the Spring Festival, the volatility of the commodity market increased significantly. In terms of supply and demand fundamentals, the current supply of rubber in the origin is stable, and raw material prices are stable with a slight upward trend. The Hainan production area in China has stopped tapping, and the enthusiasm of factories to purchase rubber is limited. The high - yield tapping season overseas exerts pressure on supply, and the raw material prices in Thailand rebounded slightly after the festival. It is the off - season for downstream demand. Weak terminal demand and sufficient supply lead to an increase in finished product inventory. The natural rubber spot inventory continues the seasonal accumulation, exerting pressure on the spot market. In the long - term, the pattern of oversupply is expected to gradually improve as production reaches its peak. [4] - Industrial products are undergoing adjustments. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see for rubber on a single - side basis. The macro - sentiment is prone to fluctuations, and it is advisable to avoid chasing the high. The support level of the RU main contract is 15,700 - 15,800, and the pressure level is 16,100 - 16,400; the support level of the NR main contract is 12,800 - 13,000, and the pressure level is 13,420 - 13,800. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Rubber Variety Viewpoint Summary - The recommended strategy for rubber is to buy on dips. The main logic is that the domestic spot inventory continues to accumulate slightly, overseas supply has no obvious fluctuations, the spot price is firm, and the macro - sentiment boosts the commodity market. The support range is 15,500 - 15,800, the pressure range is 16,300 - 16,500, and the market is expected to fluctuate upwards. - The recommended strategy for 20 - grade rubber is also to buy on dips. The main logic is that the dark - colored rubber has reached an inventory inflection point, the price of Thai glue is firm, the production in the fourth quarter has declined, and there is still support below. The support range is 12,700 - 12,800, the pressure range is 13,420 - 13,805, and the market is expected to recover from the bottom. [10] 3.2 Futures Market Review 3.2.1 Futures Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Percentage Change (%) | Daily Change | Trading Volume | Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rubber Main - continuous | 16,575 | 1.62 | 265 | 270,154 | 162,081 | | 20 - grade Rubber Main - continuous | 13,445 | 1.70 | 225 | 50,956 | 49,041 | | Singapore TSR20 Main - continuous | 192 | 1.11 | 2 | 41 | 18,914 | [10] 3.2.2 Futures Market Warehouse Receipt Situation - The latest warehouse receipt volume of 20 - grade rubber is 50,803, with a year - on - year change of - 17.78%. The warehouse receipts have rebounded from a low level recently, and the market's expectation of inventory accumulation has resurfaced. - The latest warehouse receipt volume of rubber is 112,570, with a year - on - year change of - 38.33%. The warehouse receipts were significantly cancelled again today, the futures inventory has dropped sharply year - on - year, the delivery risk of futures contracts has increased, which supports the RU futures price. [16] 3.3 Spot Market Trends | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Natural Rubber (yuan/ton) | 16,225 | - 109 | - 685 | | Yunnan Glue (yuan/ton) | 14,200 | 0 | - 1,800 | | Thai Hat Yai Glue (Thai baht/kg) | 61 | 1 | - 5 | | Thai Hat Yai Cup Lumps (Thai baht/kg) | 54 | 0 | - 7 | | Thai 20 - grade Standard Rubber in Qingdao Bonded Area (US dollars/ton) | 1,965 | 10 | - 95 | [21] 3.4 Basis and Spread Situation | Futures | Spread Type | Present Value | Month - on - Month | Year - on - Year | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | RU Main Contract Basis | Basis | - 110 | 10 | 500 | | NR Main Contract Basis | Basis | 1,770 | 20 | 175 | | Thai Mixed - RU | Non - standard Basis | - 1,135 | 40 | - 125 | | SVR3L - RU | Non - standard Basis | 215 | 10 | 385 | | RU - NR | Cross - variety Spread | 3,130 | 25 | 585 | | Full - latex - Thai Mixed | Light - dark Colored Rubber Spread | 850 | - 30 | 385 | [26] 3.5 Inter - month Spread Situation | Variety | Spread | Current Value | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Prediction | Recommended Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rubber | 5 - 9 | 90 | - 15 | 260 | Range Oscillation | Wait and See | | 20 - grade Rubber | 3 - 4 | - 55 | - 10 | - 205 | Range Oscillation | Wait and See | [28]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Steel demand has officially entered the off - season, with high inventory pressure on hot - rolled coils. In the short term, prices are likely to continue weak and volatile, but there may be a marginal inflection point in demand with policy implementation and macro - environment improvement [3]. - For iron ore, high inventory suppresses prices, but short - term iron ore demand is supported by the rebound in hot metal production. The price will run within a volatile range in the short term [6]. - For the black sector, it is more cost - effective to look for positions to rebound rather than short. The future price increase depends on the introduction and intensity of stimulus policies [10][11]. - Industrial silicon may present a "supply - demand double - weak" pattern. Its price may rise further with开工 rate decline and sentiment boost, otherwise, it may fall [16]. - Polysilicon is still in a tug - of - war between reality and expectation. The supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but short - term de - stocking is limited, and the price will fluctuate widely within a range [18]. - Glass supply contraction is limited, demand is weak, and the market is expected to remain weak in the short term [21]. - Soda ash supply is relatively high, demand is average, and the price will continue to oscillate at a low level in the short term [23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Quotes** - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3070 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (- 0.64%) from the previous trading day, with registered warehouse receipts of 95087 tons, a net increase of 8415 tons. The main contract's open interest was 1.631133 million lots, a decrease of 24336 lots. The Tianjin and Shanghai rebar summary prices decreased by 10 yuan/ton [2]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3277 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton (- 0.27%) from the previous trading day, with registered warehouse receipts of 120567 tons, unchanged. The main contract's open interest was 1.196921 million lots, a decrease of 20253 lots. The Le Cong and Shanghai hot - rolled coil summary prices remained unchanged [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoints** - Rebar shows a pattern of double - decline in supply and demand, with continuous inventory reduction, presenting a neutral overall performance. Hot - rolled coils have weak terminal demand, and inventory is accumulating against the season. In the short term, prices are likely to be weak and volatile, but there may be a demand inflection point later [3]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes** - The main iron ore contract (I2601) closed at 791.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.06% (- 0.50), and the open interest increased by 9616 lots to 480,900 lots. The weighted open interest was 917,200 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 793 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 51.85 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 6.15% [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoints** - Supply: Overseas iron ore shipments have rebounded significantly, with increases in both Australian and Brazilian shipments. Demand: The daily average hot metal production has rebounded, but the steel mill profitability rate is declining. Inventory: Port inventory is accumulating, and steel mill inventory has increased slightly. High inventory suppresses prices, but short - term demand is supported by the rebound in hot metal production, and the price will run within a volatile range [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Quotes** - On November 19, the main manganese silicon contract (SM601) fell 0.67% to close at 5642 yuan/ton. The Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot market price was 5650 yuan/ton, with a premium of 198 yuan/ton over the futures. The main ferrosilicon contract (SF603) fell 0.33% to close at 5504 yuan/ton. The Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon spot market price was 5500 yuan/ton, with a discount of 4 yuan/ton to the futures [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoints** - The black sector has been oscillating downward. As the time approaches December, the macro - expectation is positive. It is more cost - effective to look for positions to rebound. Manganese silicon's fundamentals are not ideal, and attention should be paid to the manganese ore end. Ferrosilicon has no obvious supply - demand contradictions, with low operational cost - effectiveness [10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Quotes** - The main industrial silicon futures contract (SI2601) closed at 9390 yuan/ton, up 4.57% (+ 410). The weighted contract open interest increased by 70215 lots to 470943 lots. The spot prices of East China's non - oxygen - blowing 553 and 421 remained unchanged, with basis of - 40 yuan/ton and - 440 yuan/ton respectively [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoints** - Affected by the new energy sector, the price rose rapidly. It may present a "supply - demand double - weak" pattern. The cost provides support. The price may rise further if the开工 rate declines, otherwise, it may fall [14][16]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Quotes** - The main polysilicon futures contract (PS2601) closed at 54625 yuan/ton, up 4.63% (+ 2415). The weighted contract open interest decreased by 2906 lots to 233574 lots. The spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material remained unchanged, with a basis of - 2325 yuan/ton [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoints** - It is in a tug - of - war between reality and expectation. The supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but short - term de - stocking is limited. The price will fluctuate widely within a range, and attention should be paid to the progress of the platform company and price feedback [18]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market Quotes** - The glass main contract closed at 1009 yuan/ton on Wednesday, down 0.79% (- 8). The North China and Central China quotes remained unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises increased by 111,000 boxes (+ 0.18%). The top 20 long - position holders increased their positions by 2020 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their positions by 11275 lots [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoints** - Supply contraction is limited, demand is weak, inventory is high, and the market is expected to remain weak in the short term [21]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Quotes** - The soda ash main contract closed at 1182 yuan/ton on Wednesday, down 2.64% (- 32). The Shahe heavy - soda quote decreased by 27. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 0.69 million tons (- 0.18%), with heavy - soda inventory increasing by 0.75 million tons and light - soda inventory decreasing by 1.44 million tons. The top 20 long - position holders increased their positions by 42148 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their positions by 67894 lots [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoints** - Supply is relatively high, demand is average, and the price will continue to oscillate at a low level in the short term [23].