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中金:维持华润啤酒跑赢行业评级 目标价32.4港元
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-08-20 02:24
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report maintains the 2025/26 core net profit estimates for China Resources Beer at 5.31/5.75 billion HKD, with a target price of 32.4 HKD, indicating a 15% upside potential from the current stock price [1] - The beer segment's performance in 1H25 slightly exceeded expectations, with revenue of 23.94 billion HKD, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, and core EBIT of 7.11 billion HKD, a year-on-year increase of 11.3% [2] - The beer business outperformed the overall industry, benefiting from a decrease in raw material costs, with a year-on-year decline in ton cost of 4.2% and an increase in gross margin by 2.5 percentage points to 48.3% [3] Group 2 - The white liquor business faced greater pressure than market expectations, with a revenue decline of 34% in 1H25 and EBITDA down by 47.2% [4] - The company plans to launch products priced between 100-300 HKD to strengthen the brand and adjust the pricing system to ensure channel profitability [4] - The outlook for the beer business in the second half of the year remains stable, with expectations of maintaining low growth in both sales volume and ton price, while the gross margin is projected to increase by over 1 percentage point [4]