Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Resources Beer is maintained as "Buy" [2][7][17] Core Views - The report highlights that the beer business is experiencing continuous improvement in profit margins, while the liquor business is under pressure due to weak demand [1][7] - The company reported a revenue of HKD 23.942 billion for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 5.789 billion, up 23.04% year-on-year [7] - The report anticipates a continued increase in net profit margins driven by product structure upgrades and cost advantages in the beer segment [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: HKD 38,932 million - 2024: HKD 38,635 million - 2025E: HKD 38,360 million - 2026E: HKD 39,036 million - 2027E: HKD 39,626 million - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted as: - 2023: HKD 5,153 million - 2024: HKD 4,739 million - 2025E: HKD 5,633 million - 2026E: HKD 5,690 million - 2027E: HKD 6,111 million - The report indicates a projected net profit growth of 19% in 2025, followed by 1% and 7% in 2026 and 2027 respectively [6][8] Business Performance - The beer segment achieved a revenue of HKD 23.161 billion in H1 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 2.6% and a sales volume of 6.49 million tons, up 2.2% [7] - The average price per ton of beer was HKD 3,570, reflecting a 0.4% increase year-on-year [7] - The gross margin for the beer business improved to 48.3%, an increase of 2.5 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The liquor business reported a revenue of HKD 781 million in H1 2025, a decline of 33.7% year-on-year, primarily due to weak business demand [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The report indicates that terminal demand remains under pressure, and changes in tax rates have negatively impacted profit performance. The company's revenue for H1 2025 was 88.39 billion, down 0.24% year-on-year, while net profit was 8.65 billion, down 4.03% year-on-year. The revenue met expectations, but profit fell short [7][6]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2024: 14,645 million, 2025: 14,758 million, 2026: 15,404 million, 2027: 15,930 million, with year-on-year growth rates of -1.2%, 0.8%, 4.4%, and 3.4% respectively [6]. - Net profit forecasts are: 2025: 1,218 million, 2026: 1,309 million, 2027: 1,372 million, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.3%, 7.5%, and 4.8% respectively [6]. - Earnings per share are projected to be 2.52 for 2025, 2.70 for 2026, and 2.83 for 2027 [6]. Sales and Market Performance - In Q2 2025, the company sold 917,000 tons of beer, which was flat year-on-year, with an average price of 4,888.17 yuan per ton, down 1.9% year-on-year. The decline in price is attributed to weak demand in the dining sector [7]. - Revenue from high-end, mainstream, and economy products in Q2 2025 was 26.62 billion, 15.95 billion, and 1.05 billion respectively, with year-on-year changes of -1.09%, -3.59%, and +4.79% [7]. Cost and Profitability - The cost per ton in Q2 2025 was 2,385.15 yuan, down 3.4% year-on-year, mainly due to lower raw material costs and an increased proportion of revenue from economy beers. The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 51.21%, up 0.75 percentage points year-on-year [7]. - The company's net profit margin for Q2 2025 was 8.75%, down 1.09 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to an increase in the income tax rate to 27.26% [7].