从分产品维度来看，目前各品牌的占比情况和增速如何？ 重庆啤酒 20251217 摘要 2025 年第四季度消费平稳，略好于去年同期低点，但对全年影响不大。 嘉士伯、乐堡、风花雪月和乌苏前三季度销量增长，重庆和大理品牌有 所下降。乌苏啤酒通过新品推出和渠道拓展，在疆内外均实现增长。 1986 版绿乌苏替换老版绿乌苏的升级已完成过半。吨价增长受消费环 境影响，消费者倾向于性价比高的产品，公司减少 12 元以上价格段啤 酒，集中于 8-10 元价格段，新产品推广需更多折扣，影响 ASP。 费用投放策略因地制宜，今年略高于去年，明年视市场而定。短期内， 公司希望通过 8-10 元价格带产品稳住并提升产品结构，保持竞争力。 预计明年消费状况与今年相似，啤酒整体销量可能微跌。 公司将拓展非现饮渠道，如新零售、即时零售及零食量贩，推出更多一 升灌装产品，尝试新的品牌策略。截至 2025 年第三季度，集影渠道销 量占比约 44%，非集影渠道约 56%，未来比例可能继续变化。 非直营渠道中，品牌影响力至关重要。全国性现代零售平台扩张带来新 机遇。即时零售渠道一升灌装产品销量最高，推动公司罐化率迅速提升， 从 2019 年的 1 ...

重庆啤酒与重庆嘉威啤酒有限公司（下称"重庆嘉威"）的诉讼案有了新进展。 12月15日晚间，重庆啤酒披露公告，称双方拟在二审阶段达成调解，如顺利达成调解，则诉讼程序将以 调解结案。 这场纠纷的重点在于，当初签订的包销协议中关于销售费用的约定。 但承诺的弥补一直被拖欠。重庆嘉威于2017年12月再次提出异议，要求履行承诺，彼时重庆啤酒高管 称"如果暂时得不到解决，重庆嘉威啤酒所欠的销售费用3800万元可以暂时不支付"。 拉锯战持续多年。期间，重庆啤酒曾受到中国证监会监查，上述3800万元的销售费用应收款属于非经营 性资金占用，违反了上市公司的监管政策，要求立即归还。 2018年，双方就此召开了专题沟通会。会上，重庆啤酒主动提出对2018年7月后的销售费用以半年为单 位结算并延期半年支付的原则执行；重庆嘉威则提前于2018年9月14日向重庆啤酒提前支付了按约定不 需支付的2018年6月以前的全部销售费用3857.8万元。 而后双方一直按照新约定执行，直到2021年重庆啤酒强行每月扣留重庆嘉威啤酒款冲抵销售费用。 2021年2月，重庆啤酒以重庆嘉威欠付销售费用为由，发起了销售费用纠纷诉讼。双方对簿公堂，数轮 交战，持 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Views - The company reported total revenue of 13.059 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2025, a slight decrease of 0.03% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.241 billion yuan, down 6.83% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 1.222 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.4% year-on-year. In Q3 2025, total revenue was 4.22 billion yuan, an increase of 0.41% year-on-year, but net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 12.71% to 376 million yuan [2][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company achieved a sales volume of 2.6681 million tons, an increase of 0.42% year-on-year, with Q3 sales volume at 867,000 tons, down 0.68% year-on-year. Revenue from high-end products increased by 1.2%, while mainstream and economy products saw declines of 1.7% and 1.2%, respectively. The company expects brands like Carlsberg and Fenghua Xueyue to perform well, driving revenue growth in high-end products [13]. Pricing and Cost Structure - The average price per ton decreased by 0.45% year-on-year for Q1-Q3 2025, but in Q3, it increased by 1.09%. The company experienced a cost reduction of 2.3% year-on-year in Q3, leading to a gross margin increase of 1.7 percentage points to 50.87%. The net profit margin decreased by 1.34 percentage points to 8.91% [13]. Brand and Market Strategy - The company is actively investing in brand development despite market challenges. It has maintained a strong brand portfolio, with notable performance from differentiated products. The company is also adapting to market demands by increasing its canned product offerings to meet consumer preferences for home consumption [13]. Earnings Forecast - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 2.60 yuan, 2.74 yuan, and 2.83 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 21X, 20X, and 19X. The company has a strong dividend policy, indicating a high dividend yield [13].

Summary of the Conference Call for Chongqing Beer Industry Overview - The beer industry is experiencing a slight decline in overall sales for 2025, but specific brands such as Carlsberg, Fenghua Xueyue, Lebao, and Wusu are showing growth [2][6] - The company is focusing on high-end product development, with a significant emphasis on products priced above 4 RMB [2][9] Key Points and Arguments Brand Performance - Carlsberg continues to grow in the South China market [2][6] - Fenghua Xueyue has achieved double-digit growth after nationwide promotion [2][6] - Lebao remains the company's second-largest product, continuing its growth trend [2][6] - Wusu brand is maintaining high-end pricing and positive growth both inside and outside Jiangsu, with an estimated sales volume of 730,000 to 740,000 tons in 2024 and expected growth in 2025 [2][7] Market Dynamics - The company is segmented by geographic latitude, with significant growth in Xinjiang, where market share exceeds 90% [10][11] - The South China region is outperforming the Central region [11] Cost and Margin Outlook - A decrease in costs is expected to significantly contribute to gross margins in 2025, although the rate of decline is anticipated to narrow in 2026 [2][13] - The company typically locks in pricing and volume for the next year by January, with preliminary indications suggesting continued cost reduction in 2026, albeit at a lower rate than in 2025 [13] Product Innovation and New Channels - The company is actively exploring new retail channels and product innovations, launching over 30 new products in 2025, including tea-flavored beer and low-alcohol variants [4][14] - The introduction of one-liter canned products is a key focus for 2026 [4][14] Consumer Trends and Challenges - The decline in the economy segment (priced below 4 RMB) is noted, but it represents a small portion of total sales (approximately 3%) [9] - The overall consumption environment is under pressure, impacting mainstream product categories [3][8] Financial Health and Dividend Policy - The company maintains a 100% dividend policy, with a strong cash flow position supporting this strategy [4][19] - The depreciation from the new Foshan factory, which began operations in August 2024, is expected to increase from 40 million RMB in 2024 to over 90 million RMB in 2025, impacting costs [4][19] Future Outlook - The company remains cautious about 2026, with no clear recovery signs yet, but anticipates potential adjustments based on demand recovery [5][14] - Despite concerns over profit declines, the company is viewed as having a strong defensive position in the A-share market, with expectations for gradual improvement in the dining scene [20] Additional Important Insights - The company is adapting to new retail trends, including instant retail and O2O models, to enhance marketing and brand development [3] - The impact of the recent alcohol regulations on sales has been managed effectively, with strategies in place to stabilize sales [17][18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Insights - The company is actively promoting the high-end non-dining segment, with effective channel strategies driving structural improvements. In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 41.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%, with a slight decline in volume but an increase in price [2][4]. - Cost benefits continue to drive gross margin improvements, although expenses and tax rate adjustments have negatively impacted profitability. In Q3 2025, the company’s gross margin increased by 1.7 percentage points, while the net profit margin decreased by 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [3][4]. - The company aims to expand its market share and embrace the high-end non-dining trend, anticipating a recovery in industry demand. The revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 149.37 billion, 152.06 billion, and 154.57 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 12.36 billion, 12.85 billion, and 13.31 billion yuan [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported total revenue of 130.59 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.03% year-on-year, and a net profit of 12.41 billion yuan, down 6.83% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue was 42.20 billion yuan, with a net profit of 3.76 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 12.71% [1][2]. - The company’s beer revenue for the first three quarters reached 127.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, with volume and price changes of +0.4% and -0.4%, respectively [2]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The company’s cost per ton decreased by 2.3% year-on-year in Q3 2025, contributing to a gross margin increase of 1.7 percentage points. However, the increase in sales and management expenses, along with a higher tax rate, led to a decrease in the net profit margin [3][4]. Future Outlook - The company plans to continue expanding its market share and is optimistic about the recovery of the industry, driven by ongoing consumer policy support. The long-term outlook for the beer industry remains positive, with significant upgrade potential [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Chongqing Beer (600132.SH) [1] Core Views - In the first three quarters of 2025, Chongqing Beer achieved operating revenue of 13.059 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.03% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.241 billion yuan, down 6.83% year-on-year [6] - The third quarter of 2025 saw operating revenue of 4.220 billion yuan, an increase of 0.41% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 376 million yuan, a decrease of 12.71% year-on-year [6] Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company sold 2.6681 million kiloliters of beer, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%. However, Q3 sales were approximately 867,300 kiloliters, down about 1.2% year-on-year, indicating a slowdown compared to the first half of the year [7] - The average price per ton of beer in the first three quarters of 2025 was approximately 4,765 yuan, a decrease of 0.4% year-on-year, while in Q3, it was about 4,737 yuan, an increase of 1.8% year-on-year, showing a quarter-on-quarter improvement [7] Cost and Profitability - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 50.17%, up 0.97 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to product structure optimization and a decrease in raw material prices [8] - The net profit margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 19.01%, down 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting the impact of increased expenses and tax rates [8] Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively transforming its channels and innovating product categories in response to a challenging macro environment. It is shifting focus towards non-on-premise channels, which have seen an increase in sales proportion [9] - New product innovations include 1L craft beer products aimed at home consumption and low-alcohol beers to cater to diverse consumer preferences. The company is also expanding its non-beer product line with new soft drinks and energy drinks [9] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 1.199 billion, 1.258 billion, and 1.311 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.48, 2.60, and 2.71 yuan, and PE ratios of 22x, 21x, and 20x [11]

Core Insights - Chongqing Beer reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 865 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 4.03% [1] - In Q2 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 392 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 12.70% [1] Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the revenue from high-end products increased by 0.04% year-on-year, while mainstream products decreased by 0.92%, and economy products increased by 5.39% [1] - In Q2 2025, high-end product revenue decreased by 1.09% year-on-year, mainstream products decreased by 3.59%, and economy products increased by 4.79% [1] Market Trends - The proportion of canned products in non-immediate consumption channels continued to rise in H1 2025, with significant growth in sales of brands such as Wusu and 1664, and double-digit growth for brands like Carlsberg and Fenghua Xueyue [1] Earnings Forecast - The company has adjusted its profit forecast downward primarily due to the impact of weak dining consumption, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 22X, 21X, and 20X for the upcoming periods [1] - The firm maintains a "Buy" rating on the stock [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative return of over 20% within the next six months [5]. Core Views - The company's revenue for H1 2025 was 8.839 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.24% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 865 million yuan, down 4.03% year-on-year. In Q2 2025, revenue was 4.484 billion yuan, a decline of 1.84% year-on-year, and net profit was 392 million yuan, down 12.70% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company experienced a slight increase in sales volume in H1 2025, reaching 1.8008 million kiloliters, up 0.95% year-on-year, while the average price per ton decreased by 1.2% to 4,908 yuan per kiloliter. The cost per ton also saw a reduction of 2.4% year-on-year [1]. - The company’s profitability was impacted by an increase in the income tax rate, which rose by 7.41 percentage points to 27.26% year-on-year in H1 2025. The net profit margin for H1 2025 was 9.79%, down 0.39 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenue growth of 0.7%, 2.4%, and 2.7% for the years 2025 to 2027, reaching 14.7 billion, 15.1 billion, and 15.5 billion yuan respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow by 8.2%, 4.5%, and 5.0% during the same period, reaching 1.21 billion, 1.26 billion, and 1.32 billion yuan respectively [3]. - The report indicates a downward adjustment in profit forecasts primarily due to weak dining consumption [3]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s total revenue for 2023 is estimated at 14.814 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.53%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected at 1.337 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 5.78% [4]. - The report provides various financial ratios, including a projected P/E ratio of 21.95 for 2025 and an EV/EBITDA ratio of 6.30 for the same year [4].

Core Viewpoint - Chongqing Beer maintains its market share growth in H1 2025, actively promoting the high-endization of non-on-trade channels, although increased investment impacts the ton price [1] Company Summary - Carlsberg and Fenghua Xueyue brands are expected to continue strong growth, while 1664 and Wusu canned products also contribute to incremental growth [1] - Increased investment in non-on-trade channels affects the ton price of high-end and mainstream products, despite good growth in economic products mainly due to internal structural upgrades [1] - The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio of 104% for 2024, with current market valuations corresponding to PE ratios of 22/21/20X [1] Industry Summary - Continued stimulus from consumption policies is expected to stabilize and restore downstream demand, driving volume and price expansion in the industry [1] - There remains significant upgrade potential in the beer industry in the medium to long term, supported by a complete product matrix and a focus on enhancing organizational capabilities and channel cultivation [1] - A recovery in on-trade demand could accelerate the industry's upgrade rate, with the company's high-end flagship products likely to regain momentum [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][9]. Core Views - The company reported a slight decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with total revenue at 8.84 billion yuan, down 0.2% year-on-year, and net profit at 860 million yuan, down 4.0% year-on-year [1][7]. - The pressure on beer prices has increased, particularly in the second quarter of 2025, leading to a decline in profitability despite a slight improvement in gross margin due to cost benefits [2][8]. - The company is expected to face ongoing price pressures, with future improvements dependent on the recovery of consumer spending and the introduction of new products [3][9]. Revenue and Profitability Summary - In the first half of 2025, beer sales volume increased by 1.9% year-on-year, but the average price per ton decreased by 1.1%, primarily due to increased promotional efforts [1][7]. - The gross margin for the beer business was 51.3%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin decreased by 0.4 percentage points due to a rise in the effective tax rate [2][8]. - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027, now expecting revenues of 14.73 billion, 15.03 billion, and 15.35 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.26 billion, 1.31 billion, and 1.35 billion yuan [3][9]. Financial Projections - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 2.61 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 21 times [4][9]. - The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns [3][9].