智通财经记者 | 武冰聪 智通财经编辑 | 任雪松 重庆啤酒经历了一个不够理想的2025上半年。8月14日晚间，重庆啤酒发布2025年半年报，报告期内，该公司实现营业收入88.39亿元，同比减少0.24%；实现归母净利润8.65亿元，同比减少 销量同比微增的情况下，重庆啤酒出现营收与净利润的"双降"，意味着企业出现"量价背离"，一定程度上指向了高端产品销售欠佳。 在消费市场上，重庆啤酒旗下产品的"出镜率"很高，消费者能触及到的工业啤酒、精酿甚至汽水，有不少来自重庆啤酒。 目前，该公司旗下本地品牌有乌苏、重庆、山城、西夏、大理、风花雪月、天目湖（维权）、京A等，国际品牌有嘉士伯、乐堡、1664、布鲁克林、夏日纷等。 新疆乌苏啤酒也是重庆啤酒旗下的一员/图片来源：淘 据公开资料，重庆啤酒是全球三大啤酒公司之一丹麦嘉士伯集团成员，也是嘉士伯在中国经营啤酒资产的唯一平台。 此前，重庆啤酒亮眼的业绩得益于高端化产品。据财报根据产品档次进行的划分，消费价格8元及以上为高档，消费价格大于等于4元小于8元为主流，消费价格4元以下为经济。2023年其高档产 然而，2025上半年，该公司高档产品收入同比增速仅为0.04%，主流产 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The report indicates that terminal demand remains under pressure, and changes in tax rates have negatively impacted profit performance. The company's revenue for H1 2025 was 88.39 billion, down 0.24% year-on-year, while net profit was 8.65 billion, down 4.03% year-on-year. The revenue met expectations, but profit fell short [7][6]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2024: 14,645 million, 2025: 14,758 million, 2026: 15,404 million, 2027: 15,930 million, with year-on-year growth rates of -1.2%, 0.8%, 4.4%, and 3.4% respectively [6]. - Net profit forecasts are: 2025: 1,218 million, 2026: 1,309 million, 2027: 1,372 million, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.3%, 7.5%, and 4.8% respectively [6]. - Earnings per share are projected to be 2.52 for 2025, 2.70 for 2026, and 2.83 for 2027 [6]. Sales and Market Performance - In Q2 2025, the company sold 917,000 tons of beer, which was flat year-on-year, with an average price of 4,888.17 yuan per ton, down 1.9% year-on-year. The decline in price is attributed to weak demand in the dining sector [7]. - Revenue from high-end, mainstream, and economy products in Q2 2025 was 26.62 billion, 15.95 billion, and 1.05 billion respectively, with year-on-year changes of -1.09%, -3.59%, and +4.79% [7]. Cost and Profitability - The cost per ton in Q2 2025 was 2,385.15 yuan, down 3.4% year-on-year, mainly due to lower raw material costs and an increased proportion of revenue from economy beers. The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 51.21%, up 0.75 percentage points year-on-year [7]. - The company's net profit margin for Q2 2025 was 8.75%, down 1.09 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to an increase in the income tax rate to 27.26% [7].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing legal battle between Chongqing Beer and its partner Chongqing Jiawei is not merely a commercial dispute but also a significant issue regarding the survival of a national brand, "Shancheng" beer [2][4]. Group 1: Legal Dispute - The lawsuit between Chongqing Jiawei and Chongqing Beer, stemming from a contract dispute, has been ongoing for over a year and has recently reached a first-instance verdict [7][10]. - Chongqing Jiawei claims that since 2011, Chongqing Beer has breached their 20-year exclusive sales agreement, resulting in losses amounting to 632 million yuan [11][12]. - The court ruled that Chongqing Beer must pay 353 million yuan to Chongqing Jiawei, while Chongqing Beer plans to appeal this decision, citing significant errors in the judgment [13]. Group 2: Historical Context - "Shancheng" beer, a well-known brand with over 60 years of history, has seen its production and sales decline from over 100,000 tons in 2013 to less than 10,000 tons recently, according to Chongqing Jiawei [17][19]. - Chongqing Beer argues that Chongqing Jiawei has benefited excessively from the sales agreement, with profits soaring from 20 million yuan in 2008 to over 2 billion yuan in the past 15 years [21]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The Chinese beer market is highly competitive, and Chongqing Beer must address historical issues related to "Shancheng" beer while facing fierce competition [5]. - In 2023, "Shancheng" beer's sales exceeded 160,000 tons, marking a 17% increase compared to 2019, despite an overall market decline of 5.6% [22]. - The overall revenue for Chongqing Beer is projected to decline by 1.15% in 2024, with net profit expected to drop by 6.84% [31]. Group 4: Corporate Strategy - Carlsberg, as the parent company of Chongqing Beer, has historically been cautious in the Chinese market but is now focusing all resources on Chongqing Beer as its sole operational platform in China [24][29]. - The company has attempted to revitalize its brand presence through aggressive marketing strategies, including celebrity endorsements and innovative market approaches, but has not achieved sustained high growth [30].