回落做多
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山海:黄金大涨后走出调整,保持看涨趋势回落多!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-24 08:40
Group 1 - The current market trend for gold and silver is bullish, with a strategy of buying on dips rather than chasing highs emphasized [2][3] - Gold experienced a significant drop to 3752 after reaching a peak of 3792, but this does not alter the overall bullish trend as long as support at 3715 holds [3][4] - Silver has shown a similar pattern, with a recent high of 44.5 and a current low around 43.8, suggesting a buy-on-dip strategy remains effective [2][4] Group 2 - Domestic gold prices are rising, with the Shanghai gold contract reaching a high of approximately 862, but caution is advised against chasing prices without a pullback [4][5] - The international silver market has seen adjustments after reaching 44.5, with a focus on buying at support levels around 43.5 [4][5] - The domestic fuel market has shown strong performance, with prices climbing to 2900, nearing the target of 3000, indicating a potential exit point for existing long positions [6]
橡胶:回落做多
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 03:58
Group 1: Report Overview - Report on natural rubber futures strategy from September 15th to September 19th [1] - Analyst: Jin Zebin, Research Variety: Natural Rubber, Qualification Certificate Number: F3048432 [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not mentioned Group 3: Core View - This week, the market declined, but the fundamental outlook remains bullish. The report maintains a bullish view and suggests investors buy on dips near previous lows [2][8] Group 4: Futures and Spot Market Review Futures Market - RU2601 opened at 15,860, reached a high of 16,105, a low of 15,450, and closed at 15,535, down 1.8% [3] - NR2511 opened at 12,600, reached a high of 12,755, a low of 12,190, and closed at 12,300, down 2.03% [3] - BR2511 opened at 11,620, reached a high of 11,725, a low of 11,355, and closed at 11,445, down 1.08% [3] Spot Market - Shanghai Yunnan 2023 state - owned whole latex with 9% tax was quoted at 14,700 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton from last week [4] - Qingdao Free Trade Zone smoked sheet rubber was quoted at 2,170 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton from last week [4] - Shanghai BR9000 was quoted at 11,775 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton from last week [4] Group 5: Inventory and Market Structure Inventory - This week, the total inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 4,876 tons to 196,824 tons, and the futures inventory increased by 3,180 tons to 154,920 tons [5] Market Structure - The basis strengthened this week due to a larger decline in futures prices [6] Group 6: Forecast and Operation Strategy - The market decline this week was mainly due to macro factors such as the sharp drop in the domestic stock market and the impact of the Fed's interest - rate decision on bullish sentiment, as well as technical breakdown triggering bearish sentiment [7] - The prices of Thai raw materials showed mixed trends this week. The prices of smoked sheets and cup rubber declined, while the price of latex increased [7] - The operating rate of tire enterprises continued to recover, and the inventories of semi - steel and all - steel tires remained unchanged [7]
橡胶策略周报:回落做多-20250908
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-09-08 02:58
Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The market continued to rise this week, maintaining an upward trend. Fundamental factors are mostly positive, supporting prices. It is advisable to buy on dips [2]. - The market is expected to maintain a bullish outlook, and it is recommended to adopt a long - position strategy and buy on price retracements [7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market Review - The RU2601 contract had an opening price of 15,885, a high of 16,370, a low of 15,720, and a closing price of 16,325, with a gain of 2.93%. The NR2511 contract had an opening price of 12,755, a high of 13,205, a low of 12,605, and a closing price of 13,135, with a gain of 3.22%. The BR2510 contract had an opening price of 11,920, a high of 12,255, a low of 11,685, and a closing price of 12,210, with a gain of 2.61%. The market continued to rise, breaking through the upper limit of the recent range and approaching the previous high, showing a good bullish pattern [3]. 2. Spot Market Review - The quoted price of Shanghai Yunnan 2023 state - owned full - latex rubber with 9% tax was 15,150 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton from last week. The quoted price of smoked sheet rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 2,220 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week. The quoted price of BR9000 in Shanghai was 12,025 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [4]. 3. Inventory Review - This week, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased. The subtotal inventory decreased by 7,027 tons to 205,360 tons, and the futures inventory decreased by 16,410 tons to 162,230 tons [5]. 4. Market Structure - The basis weakened this week because the futures price increased more [6]. 5. Forecast and Operation Strategy - The market continued to rise this week, approaching the previous high. The prices of Thai raw materials showed mixed trends this week, with smoked sheet prices falling and cup lump and latex prices rising. The operating rates of tire enterprises all declined, and the inventories of semi - steel and all - steel tires decreased. The natural rubber price broke through the upper limit of the previous oscillation range, driven by external market stimuli. The weak US economic data increased the probability of interest rate cuts, and the market priced in inflation, driving up the overall bulk commodities. It is advisable to maintain a bullish view and buy on dips [7].
橡胶策略周报:回落做多-20250825
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 07:16
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2. Core View of the Report The market pulled back slightly this week, but there is support below. The market is expected to enter the traditional bullish trend as it approaches the seasonal consumption peak season, domestic visible inventory is decreasing, and there are no new external macro negatives. It is recommended to maintain a bullish mindset and buy on dips [2][3][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Futures Market Review - This week, the market pulled back slightly and failed to break through the upper edge of the oscillation range platform. However, the price is supported below, the bullish pattern remains intact, and the market is expected to continue the bullish pattern in the future. The RU2601 contract fell 1.76%, the NR2510 contract fell 1.57%, and the BR2510 contract fell 1.35% [3] 3.2 Spot Market Review - The price of Shanghai Yunnan 2023 state - owned full - latex rubber with 9% tax was 14,650 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from last week. - The price of smoked sheet rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 2,210 US dollars/ton, down 30 US dollars/ton from last week. - The price of BR9000 in Shanghai was 11,925 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton from last week [4] 3.3 Inventory Situation Review - This week, the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased. The subtotal inventory decreased by 519 tons to 212,669 tons, and the futures inventory decreased by 1,460 tons to 178,470 tons [5] 3.4 Market Structure - The basis strengthened this week because the futures declined more [6] 3.5 Forecast and Operation Strategy - The Thai raw material prices fluctuated this week, with smoked sheets and cup rubber falling and latex rising. - The operating rates of tire enterprises all rebounded, and the inventories of semi - steel and all - steel tires remained unchanged. - The market is about to enter the seasonal consumption peak season, domestic visible inventory is decreasing, and there are no new external macro negatives. The market is expected to enter a traditional bullish trend, and it is recommended to buy on dips [7]