山海：黄金大涨后走出调整，保持看涨趋势回落多！ 沪银（2512合约）经过上个交易日的上涨，到达了山海预期的高点10450附近，实际最高在10480，在冲高后也走出了较大的调整力度，目前最低在 10300附近，上下有150个点空间，虽然有力度，但并没有改变暂时的多头趋势，维持看涨不猜顶，回落做多原则，调整之后还是要做有效多单。周内支 撑在10200附近，看周三，周四是否能回落至此点位再做有效多单。当然，还是要注意一点，在国庆节前沪银也有可能会走出较大调整空间，跌破10200 后再看9900之下。 国际原油符合预期，在61.5支撑点走出了预期的大涨空间，目前高点在64附近，实现了山海看涨的第一目标点位，那么，周三就关注这波多头是否能延 续，如果能走出延续力度，上方就看66高点，如果没有走出延续力度，那么，就以震荡来看。所以，今天可以适当出局掉61.5的多单，如果能走出延 续，那么，这波可以在63继续做多，周三，周四看到66高点即可。 国内燃油一直强调在2700支撑上做多看涨，这波目前已经冲高至2900附近，距离预期目标3000只差100个点，如果还有2700支撑的多单可以适当调整仓 位，再继续持有，周期性如果到了 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report on natural rubber futures strategy from September 15th to September 19th [1] - Analyst: Jin Zebin, Research Variety: Natural Rubber, Qualification Certificate Number: F3048432 [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not mentioned Group 3: Core View - This week, the market declined, but the fundamental outlook remains bullish. The report maintains a bullish view and suggests investors buy on dips near previous lows [2][8] Group 4: Futures and Spot Market Review Futures Market - RU2601 opened at 15,860, reached a high of 16,105, a low of 15,450, and closed at 15,535, down 1.8% [3] - NR2511 opened at 12,600, reached a high of 12,755, a low of 12,190, and closed at 12,300, down 2.03% [3] - BR2511 opened at 11,620, reached a high of 11,725, a low of 11,355, and closed at 11,445, down 1.08% [3] Spot Market - Shanghai Yunnan 2023 state - owned whole latex with 9% tax was quoted at 14,700 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton from last week [4] - Qingdao Free Trade Zone smoked sheet rubber was quoted at 2,170 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton from last week [4] - Shanghai BR9000 was quoted at 11,775 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton from last week [4] Group 5: Inventory and Market Structure Inventory - This week, the total inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 4,876 tons to 196,824 tons, and the futures inventory increased by 3,180 tons to 154,920 tons [5] Market Structure - The basis strengthened this week due to a larger decline in futures prices [6] Group 6: Forecast and Operation Strategy - The market decline this week was mainly due to macro factors such as the sharp drop in the domestic stock market and the impact of the Fed's interest - rate decision on bullish sentiment, as well as technical breakdown triggering bearish sentiment [7] - The prices of Thai raw materials showed mixed trends this week. The prices of smoked sheets and cup rubber declined, while the price of latex increased [7] - The operating rate of tire enterprises continued to recover, and the inventories of semi - steel and all - steel tires remained unchanged [7]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The market continued to rise this week, maintaining an upward trend. Fundamental factors are mostly positive, supporting prices. It is advisable to buy on dips [2]. - The market is expected to maintain a bullish outlook, and it is recommended to adopt a long - position strategy and buy on price retracements [7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market Review - The RU2601 contract had an opening price of 15,885, a high of 16,370, a low of 15,720, and a closing price of 16,325, with a gain of 2.93%. The NR2511 contract had an opening price of 12,755, a high of 13,205, a low of 12,605, and a closing price of 13,135, with a gain of 3.22%. The BR2510 contract had an opening price of 11,920, a high of 12,255, a low of 11,685, and a closing price of 12,210, with a gain of 2.61%. The market continued to rise, breaking through the upper limit of the recent range and approaching the previous high, showing a good bullish pattern [3]. 2. Spot Market Review - The quoted price of Shanghai Yunnan 2023 state - owned full - latex rubber with 9% tax was 15,150 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton from last week. The quoted price of smoked sheet rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 2,220 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week. The quoted price of BR9000 in Shanghai was 12,025 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [4]. 3. Inventory Review - This week, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased. The subtotal inventory decreased by 7,027 tons to 205,360 tons, and the futures inventory decreased by 16,410 tons to 162,230 tons [5]. 4. Market Structure - The basis weakened this week because the futures price increased more [6]. 5. Forecast and Operation Strategy - The market continued to rise this week, approaching the previous high. The prices of Thai raw materials showed mixed trends this week, with smoked sheet prices falling and cup lump and latex prices rising. The operating rates of tire enterprises all declined, and the inventories of semi - steel and all - steel tires decreased. The natural rubber price broke through the upper limit of the previous oscillation range, driven by external market stimuli. The weak US economic data increased the probability of interest rate cuts, and the market priced in inflation, driving up the overall bulk commodities. It is advisable to maintain a bullish view and buy on dips [7].

橡胶：回落做多 橡胶期货 研究结论 策略周报（8.18—8.22） | 分析师： | 金泽彬 | | --- | --- | | 研究品种: | 天然橡胶 | | 从业资格证号: | F3048432 | 请详细阅读后文免责声明 【 】 衍 生 品 本周市场小幅回落，价格区间震荡 基本面因素偏多支撑价格 回落做多 策略周报 一、期货行情回顾 | 合约 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | RU2601 | 15850 | 16020 | 15470 | 15625 | -1.76% | | NR2510 | 12710 | 12790 | 12350 | 12510 | -1.57% | | BR2510 | 11835 | 11980 | 11355 | 11660 | -1.35% | 本周市场小幅回落，未能突破震荡区间平台上沿。但价格在下方有支撑，多头 形态保持良好，后市有望延续多头格局。 二、现货行情回顾 上海云南 23 年国营全乳胶含 9%税报价 14650 元/吨，相比上周下跌 100 元/吨 ...