量化周报 需求主导的高位再吸筹 2025 年 09 月 28 日 ➢ 择时观点：需求主导的高位再吸筹。当下流动性处于下行趋势，分歧度继续 扩大，景气度保持回升趋势，三维择时框架保持震荡下跌判断。从技术形态来看， 沪深 300 处上涨中继再吸筹阶段，高换手状态和多次 VSB（垂直供应柱）说明存 在较强派发力量，但每次供应都被需求吸收，需求仍掌控全局叠加回调大多较浅， 后市中期整体看涨。 ➢ 指数监测：恒生港股通新经济指数大幅流入。近 1 周上证 380、科创半导体 材料设备、恒生港股通汽车主题、半导体材料设备等大幅流入。近 1 周科创材料、 科创新能、创业软件、500 现金流、绿色能源指数份额流出最多。我们在报告《ETF 的聚类优选与热点趋势策略构建》中构建了 ETF 的热点趋势策略，本周策略中主 要包括半导体、有色、国企改革、碳中和等行业、以及成长风格等 ETF。 ➢ 资金共振：推荐通信、国防军工、交通运输、建筑。我们监控两融与大单资 金的共振情绪，选择两类资金都看好的行业。两融资金流上周在电子中净流入最 多，净流入 115.0 亿元；大单资金上周在银行中净流入最多，净流入 5.5 亿元。 根据融资融券净流入 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction 1. Model Name: Three-Dimensional Timing Framework - **Model Construction Idea**: The model integrates three dimensions—divergence, liquidity, and prosperity—to assess market timing and provide investment recommendations[7][13] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Divergence**: Measures the degree of disagreement among market participants, reflecting the balance between bullish and bearish sentiments 2. **Liquidity**: Tracks the overall market liquidity trend, indicating the availability of funds in the market 3. **Prosperity**: Evaluates the economic and market growth momentum 4. The model combines these three indicators to generate a composite signal for market timing decisions, such as reducing positions during a "divergence up, liquidity down" scenario[7][13] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a systematic and multi-dimensional approach to market timing, offering insights into market trends and potential risks[7][13] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction 1. Factor Name: Size Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Captures the performance difference between large-cap and small-cap stocks[39] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Define the market capitalization of stocks 2. Construct portfolios based on size rankings 3. Measure the return spread between large-cap and small-cap portfolios[39] - **Factor Evaluation**: The size factor recorded a positive return of 1.57% in the past week, indicating that large-cap stocks outperformed small-cap stocks during this period[39][43] 2. Factor Name: Beta Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the sensitivity of a stock's returns to market movements[40] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the beta of individual stocks using historical return data 2. Construct portfolios based on beta rankings 3. Measure the return spread between high-beta and low-beta portfolios[40] - **Factor Evaluation**: The beta factor achieved a return of 1.08% in the past week, suggesting that high-beta stocks outperformed low-beta stocks[40][43] 3. Factor Name: Growth Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Identifies stocks with high growth potential based on financial metrics[40] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Use metrics such as revenue growth, earnings growth, and other growth-related indicators 2. Construct portfolios based on growth rankings 3. Measure the return spread between high-growth and low-growth portfolios[40] - **Factor Evaluation**: The growth factor recorded a return of 0.42% in the past week, indicating that high-growth stocks slightly outperformed their low-growth counterparts[40][43] 4. Factor Name: Single-Quarter ROE YoY Difference (ROE_Q_Delta) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the year-over-year change in return on equity (ROE) for a single quarter, reflecting profitability trends[46][47] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the ROE for the current quarter and the same quarter in the previous year 2. Compute the difference between the two values 3. Construct portfolios based on the ROE YoY difference rankings[46][47] - **Factor Evaluation**: This factor performed well across various indices, with a multi-week excess return of 8.23% in the CSI 300 index and 9.38% in the CSI 1000 index[46][47] 5. Factor Name: Revenue Growth YoY (YOY_OR) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Tracks the year-over-year growth in revenue, highlighting companies with strong top-line growth[42][44] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the revenue growth rate for the current period compared to the same period in the previous year 2. Construct portfolios based on revenue growth rankings 3. Measure the return spread between high-growth and low-growth portfolios[42][44] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor achieved a weekly excess return of 2.14% and a monthly excess return of 6.48%, demonstrating strong performance in identifying growth opportunities[42][44] --- Backtesting Results of Models and Factors 1. Three-Dimensional Timing Framework - **Annualized Excess Return**: 13.5% since 2018 - **IR**: 1.7 - **Weekly Absolute Return**: 0.9% - **Weekly Excess Return**: -1% relative to equal-weighted industry benchmarks[35][38] 2. Size Factor - **Weekly Return**: 1.57% - **Monthly Return**: 4.70% - **Year-to-Date Return**: -29.21%[43] 3. Beta Factor - **Weekly Return**: 1.08% - **Monthly Return**: 2.99% - **Year-to-Date Return**: 27.49%[43] 4. Growth Factor - **Weekly Return**: 0.42% - **Monthly Return**: 4.11% - **Year-to-Date Return**: -3.28%[43] 5. Single-Quarter ROE YoY Difference (ROE_Q_Delta) - **Weekly Excess Return**: 8.23% (CSI 300), 9.38% (CSI 1000) - **Monthly Excess Return**: 10.17% (CSI 1000)[46][47] 6. Revenue Growth YoY (YOY_OR) - **Weekly Excess Return**: 2.14% - **Monthly Excess Return**: 6.48%[42][44]

Quantitative Models and Construction Timing Model: Three-Dimensional Timing Framework - **Model Name**: Three-Dimensional Timing Framework - **Construction Idea**: The model integrates liquidity, divergence, and prosperity indices to assess market timing opportunities. It aims to identify optimal investment periods by analyzing these three dimensions. [7][12][14] - **Construction Process**: 1. **Liquidity Index**: Tracks market liquidity trends using aggregated data from financial markets. 2. **Divergence Index**: Measures market disagreement or dispersion among participants. 3. **Prosperity Index**: Evaluates economic and market growth indicators. 4. Combine these indices into a unified framework to determine market timing signals. - **Evaluation**: The model has historically shown strong performance in identifying favorable market conditions. [7][12][14] Funds Flow Convergence Strategy - **Model Name**: Funds Flow Convergence Strategy - **Construction Idea**: Combines financing and large-order flows to identify industries with synchronized capital inflows. [28][31][33] - **Construction Process**: 1. **Financing Factor**: Defined as the net financing buy minus net financing sell, neutralized by Barra market capitalization factor. Calculated as the two-week change in the 50-day moving average. 2. **Large-Order Factor**: Measures net inflows based on industry transaction volume, neutralized by time series. Calculated using the 10-day moving average. 3. Combine the two factors, excluding extreme industries and large financial sectors, to enhance strategy stability. 4. Backtest results show annualized excess returns of 13.5% since 2018, with an IR of 1.7. [31][33] - **Evaluation**: The strategy demonstrates stable positive excess returns and lower drawdowns compared to other convergence strategies. [31][33] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Style Factors - **Factor Name**: Value, Size, Volatility, Liquidity - **Construction Idea**: Style factors are constructed to capture specific market characteristics such as valuation, size, risk, and liquidity. [35][36] - **Construction Process**: 1. **Value Factor**: Measures the performance of low-valuation stocks relative to high-valuation stocks. 2. **Size Factor**: Tracks the performance of small-cap stocks versus large-cap stocks. 3. **Volatility Factor**: Compares low-volatility stocks to high-volatility stocks. 4. **Liquidity Factor**: Evaluates the performance of low-liquidity stocks against high-liquidity stocks. - **Evaluation**: Value factor recorded positive returns (+0.92%), while size (-0.21%), volatility (-2.38%), and liquidity (-2.23%) factors showed negative returns, reflecting market preferences for low-risk and low-liquidity stocks. [35][36] Alpha Factors - **Factor Name**: Momentum (mom_1y, mom_2y), Turnover Standard Rate (turnover_stdrate_1m, turnover_stdrate_3m), Analyst Forecast (ana_cov) - **Construction Idea**: Alpha factors aim to capture excess returns through predictive metrics such as price momentum, turnover rates, and analyst forecasts. [38][40] - **Construction Process**: 1. **Momentum Factors**: Measure stock returns over 1-year and 2-year periods. 2. **Turnover Standard Rate Factors**: Evaluate turnover rates over 1-month and 3-month periods. 3. **Analyst Forecast Factor**: Tracks the number of analyst forecasts over the past 90 trading days. - **Evaluation**: Momentum factors (mom_1y: +1.58%, mom_2y: +1.26%) and turnover factors (turnover_stdrate_1m: +1.30%, turnover_stdrate_3m: +1.56%) performed well, indicating strong predictive power. Analyst forecast factor (ana_cov: +1.22%) also showed positive returns. [38][40] Cross-Index Factors - **Factor Name**: PE_G, SUE, Turnover Standard Rate (turnover_stdrate_1m, turnover_stdrate_3m) - **Construction Idea**: These factors are designed to perform across different market indices, including large-cap and small-cap stocks. [41][42] - **Construction Process**: 1. **PE_G Factor**: Measures the difference between PE rankings and expected net profit growth rankings. 2. **SUE Factor**: Tracks net profit changes over the past eight quarters. 3. **Turnover Standard Rate Factors**: Evaluate turnover rates over 1-month and 3-month periods. - **Evaluation**: PE_G and SUE factors performed better in large-cap indices (e.g., HS300: PE_G +4.97%, SUE +4.09%) compared to small-cap indices (e.g., CN2000: PE_G +1.15%, SUE +1.34%). Turnover factors also showed higher returns in large-cap indices. [41][42] --- Backtesting Results Timing Model: Three-Dimensional Timing Framework - **Liquidity Index**: Positive trend observed - **Divergence Index**: Declining trend - **Prosperity Index**: Rising trend - **Overall Signal**: Full allocation recommended [7][12][14] Funds Flow Convergence Strategy - **Annualized Excess Return**: 13.5% - **IR**: 1.7 - **Weekly Excess Return**: +0.2% - **Absolute Weekly Return**: +2.8% [31][33] Style Factors - **Value**: +0.92% - **Size**: -0.21% - **Volatility**: -2.38% - **Liquidity**: -2.23% [35][36] Alpha Factors - **Momentum (mom_1y)**: +1.58% - **Momentum (mom_2y)**: +1.26% - **Turnover Standard Rate (turnover_stdrate_1m)**: +1.30% - **Turnover Standard Rate (turnover_stdrate_3m)**: +1.56% - **Analyst Forecast (ana_cov)**: +1.22% [38][40] Cross-Index Factors - **PE_G (HS300)**: +4.97% - **PE_G (CN2000)**: +1.15% - **SUE (HS300)**: +4.09% - **SUE (CN2000)**: +1.34% - **Turnover Standard Rate (turnover_stdrate_1m, HS300)**: +6.99% - **Turnover Standard Rate (turnover_stdrate_1m, CN2000)**: +0.02% [41][42]

Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Factor Name: BP - Construction Idea: Current net asset divided by current total market value[13] - Construction Process: $ BP = \frac{Current \ Net \ Asset}{Current \ Total \ Market \ Value} $[13] Factor Name: BP Three-Year Percentile - Construction Idea: Stock's current BP in the last three years percentile[13] - Construction Process: $ BP \ Three-Year \ Percentile = \frac{Current \ BP}{BP \ in \ Last \ Three \ Years} $[13] Factor Name: Quarterly EP - Construction Idea: Quarterly net profit divided by net asset[13] - Construction Process: $ Quarterly \ EP = \frac{Quarterly \ Net \ Profit}{Net \ Asset} $[13] Factor Name: Quarterly EP One-Year Percentile - Construction Idea: Stock's current quarterly EP in the last one year percentile[13] - Construction Process: $ Quarterly \ EP \ One-Year \ Percentile = \frac{Current \ Quarterly \ EP}{Quarterly \ EP \ in \ Last \ One \ Year} $[13] Factor Name: Quarterly SP - Construction Idea: Quarterly operating income divided by net asset[13] - Construction Process: $ Quarterly \ SP = \frac{Quarterly \ Operating \ Income}{Net \ Asset} $[13] Factor Name: Quarterly SP One-Year Percentile - Construction Idea: Stock's current quarterly SP in the last one year percentile[13] - Construction Process: $ Quarterly \ SP \ One-Year \ Percentile = \frac{Current \ Quarterly \ SP}{Quarterly \ SP \ in \ Last \ One \ Year} $[13] Factor Name: Quarterly Asset Turnover Rate - Construction Idea: Quarterly operating income divided by total asset[13] - Construction Process: $ Quarterly \ Asset \ Turnover \ Rate = \frac{Quarterly \ Operating \ Income}{Total \ Asset} $[13] Factor Name: Quarterly Gross Profit Margin - Construction Idea: Quarterly gross profit divided by quarterly sales income[13] - Construction Process: $ Quarterly \ Gross \ Profit \ Margin = \frac{Quarterly \ Gross \ Profit}{Quarterly \ Sales \ Income} $[13] Factor Name: Quarterly ROA - Construction Idea: Quarterly net profit divided by total asset[13] - Construction Process: $ Quarterly \ ROA = \frac{Quarterly \ Net \ Profit}{Total \ Asset} $[13] Factor Name: Quarterly ROE - Construction Idea: Quarterly net profit divided by net asset[13] - Construction Process: $ Quarterly \ ROE = \frac{Quarterly \ Net \ Profit}{Net \ Asset} $[13] Factor Name: Quarterly Net Profit Year-on-Year Growth - Construction Idea: Quarterly net profit year-on-year growth rate[13] - Construction Process: $ Quarterly \ Net \ Profit \ Year-on-Year \ Growth = \frac{Current \ Quarterly \ Net \ Profit - Last \ Year \ Quarterly \ Net \ Profit}{Last \ Year \ Quarterly \ Net \ Profit} $[13] Factor Name: Quarterly Revenue Year-on-Year Growth - Construction Idea: Quarterly revenue year-on-year growth rate[13] - Construction Process: $ Quarterly \ Revenue \ Year-on-Year \ Growth = \frac{Current \ Quarterly \ Revenue - Last \ Year \ Quarterly \ Revenue}{Last \ Year \ Quarterly \ Revenue} $[13] Factor Name: Quarterly ROE Year-on-Year Growth - Construction Idea: Quarterly ROE year-on-year growth rate[13] - Construction Process: $ Quarterly \ ROE \ Year-on-Year \ Growth = \frac{Current \ Quarterly \ ROE - Last \ Year \ Quarterly \ ROE}{Last \ Year \ Quarterly \ ROE} $[13] Factor Name: Standardized Unexpected Earnings - Construction Idea: Current quarterly net profit minus the average quarterly net profit growth rate of the past eight quarters divided by the standard deviation of the quarterly net profit growth rate of the past eight quarters[13] - Construction Process: $ Standardized \ Unexpected \ Earnings = \frac{Current \ Quarterly \ Net \ Profit - (Last \ Year \ Quarterly \ Net \ Profit + Average \ Quarterly \ Net \ Profit \ Growth \ Rate \ of \ Past \ Eight \ Quarters)}{Standard \ Deviation \ of \ Quarterly \ Net \ Profit \ Growth \ Rate \ of \ Past \ Eight \ Quarters} $[13] Factor Name: Standardized Unexpected Revenue - Construction Idea: Current quarterly revenue minus the average quarterly revenue growth rate of the past eight quarters divided by the standard deviation of the quarterly revenue growth rate of the past eight quarters[13] - Construction Process: $ Standardized \ Unexpected \ Revenue = \frac{Current \ Quarterly \ Revenue - (Last \ Year \ Quarterly \ Revenue + Average \ Quarterly \ Revenue \ Growth \ Rate \ of \ Past \ Eight \ Quarters)}{Standard \ Deviation \ of \ Quarterly \ Revenue \ Growth \ Rate \ of \ Past \ Eight \ Quarters} $[13] Factor Name: Dividend Yield - Construction Idea: Recent annual dividend divided by current market value[13] - Construction Process: $ Dividend \ Yield = \frac{Recent \ Annual \ Dividend}{Current \ Market \ Value} $[13] Factor Name: Performance Forecast Accuracy - Construction Idea: Single quarter performance forecast upper limit minus single quarter performance forecast lower limit divided by the average of the single quarter performance forecast upper limit and lower limit multiplied by -1[13] - Construction Process: $ Performance \ Forecast \ Accuracy = \frac{Single \ Quarter \ Performance \ Forecast \ Upper \ Limit - Single \ Quarter \ Performance \ Forecast \ Lower \ Limit}{(Single \ Quarter \ Performance \ Forecast \ Upper \ Limit + Single \ Quarter \ Performance \ Forecast \ Lower \ Limit)/2} \times (-1) $[13] Factor Name: Top Five Shareholders' Holding Ratio Sum - Construction Idea: Sum of the squares of the top five shareholders' holding ratios[13] - Construction Process: $ Top \ Five \ Shareholders' \ Holding \ Ratio \ Sum = \sum_{i=1}^{5} (Holding \ Ratio_i)^2 $[13] Factor Name: 90-Day Analyst Coverage - Construction Idea: Analyst coverage in the past 90 days[13] - Construction Process: $ 90-Day \ Analyst \ Coverage = \frac{Number \ of \ Analysts \ Covering \ the \ Stock \ in \ the \ Past \ 90 \ Days}{Total \ Number \ of \ Analysts} $[13] Factor Name: Consensus Expected Net Profit Compound Growth Rate - Construction Idea: Consensus expected net profit three-year compound growth rate[13] - Construction Process: $ Consensus \ Expected \ Net \ Profit \ Compound \ Growth \ Rate = \frac{Consensus \ Expected \ Net \ Profit \ in \ Three \ Years}{Current \ Net \ Profit} $[13] Factor Name: Consensus Expected EPS Change - Construction Idea: Consensus expected EPS divided by the average consensus expected EPS in the last 120 days[13] - Construction Process: $ Consensus \ Expected \ EPS \ Change = \frac{Consensus \ Expected \ EPS}{Average \ Consensus \ Expected \ EPS \ in \ the \ Last \ 120 \ Days} $[13] Factor Name: 90-Day Net Upward Revision Ratio - Construction Idea: Ratio of analysts who revised earnings forecasts upward minus the ratio of analysts who revised earnings forecasts downward in the past 90 days[13] - Construction Process: $ 90-Day \ Net \ Upward \ Revision \ Ratio = \frac{Number \ of \ Analysts \ Revising \ Upward}{Total \ Number \ of \ Analysts} - \frac{Number \ of \ Analysts \ Revising \ Downward}{Total \ Number \ of \ Analysts} $[13] Factor Name: 90-Day Expected Adjustment Mean - Construction Idea: Average adjustment magnitude of analysts' earnings forecasts in the past 90 days[13] - Construction Process: $ 90-Day \ Expected \ Adjustment \ Mean = \frac{Sum \ of \ Analysts' \ Earnings \ Forecast \ Adjustments \ in \ the \ Past \ 90 \ Days}{Total \ Number \ of \ Analysts} $[13] Factor Name: Financial Report Exceeding Research Report Expectation Degree - Construction Idea: Degree to which the financial report exceeds the research report expectation within 5 days of the financial report release[13] - Construction Process: $ Financial \ Report \ Exceeding \ Research \ Report \ Expectation \ Degree = \frac{Financial \ Report \ Value - Research \ Report \ Expectation}{Research \ Report \ Expectation} $[13] Factor Name: Standardized Unexpected Earnings Based on Consensus Expectation - Construction Idea: Quarterly net profit minus quarterly consensus expected net profit divided by the consensus expected net profit dispersion[13] - Construction Process: $ Standardized \ Unexpected \ Earnings \ Based \ on \ Consensus \ Expectation = \frac{Quarterly \ Net \ Profit - Quarterly \ Consensus \ Expected \ Net \ Profit}{Consensus \ Expected \ Net \ Profit \ Dispersion} $[13] Factor Name: 1-Month Turnover Rate and Average Price Correlation - Construction Idea: Correlation coefficient between stock turnover rate and average price in the past 20 trading days[13] - Construction Process: $ 1-Month \ Turnover \ Rate \ and \ Average \ Price \ Correlation = \frac{Cov(Turnover \ Rate, \ Average \ Price)}{Std(Turnover \ Rate)

Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Book-to-Price Ratio (BP) - **Construction Idea**: Measures the valuation of a stock by comparing its book value to its market value [12] - **Construction Process**: - Formula: $ BP = \frac{\text{Current Book Value}}{\text{Current Market Value}} $ [12] - **Evaluation**: BP is a widely used valuation factor, and its positive IC and excess return indicate its effectiveness in identifying undervalued stocks [8][10] 2. Factor Name: BP Three-Year Percentile - **Construction Idea**: Evaluates the relative valuation of a stock over the past three years [12] - **Construction Process**: - Formula: BP Three-Year Percentile = Percentile rank of the current BP within the last three years [12] - **Evaluation**: This factor provides a historical perspective on valuation, which can enhance its predictive power [8][10] 3. Factor Name: Quarterly Gross Profit Margin - **Construction Idea**: Measures profitability by comparing gross profit to sales revenue [12] - **Construction Process**: - Formula: $ \text{Quarterly Gross Profit Margin} = \frac{\text{Quarterly Gross Profit}}{\text{Quarterly Sales Revenue}} $ [12] - **Evaluation**: A positive IC and strong excess return suggest this factor is effective in identifying profitable companies [8][10] 4. Factor Name: 1-Month Average Daily Turnover - **Construction Idea**: Captures liquidity by analyzing the average daily turnover over the past month [12] - **Construction Process**: - Formula: 1-Month Average Daily Turnover = Mean of daily turnover over the last 20 trading days [12] - **Evaluation**: This factor demonstrates strong performance in short-term IC and excess return, indicating its utility in capturing liquidity-driven opportunities [8][10] 5. Factor Name: 1-Month Turnover Volatility - **Construction Idea**: Measures the variability of turnover over the past month to capture liquidity dynamics [12] - **Construction Process**: - Formula: 1-Month Turnover Volatility = Standard deviation of daily turnover over the last 20 trading days [12] - **Evaluation**: High IC and excess return suggest this factor effectively captures liquidity-related anomalies [8][10] 6. Factor Name: Fama-French Three-Factor 1-Month Residual Volatility - **Construction Idea**: Measures idiosyncratic risk by analyzing the residual volatility from the Fama-French three-factor model [12] - **Construction Process**: - Formula: Residual Volatility = Standard deviation of residuals from the regression of daily returns on the Fama-French three factors over the last 20 trading days [12] - **Evaluation**: This factor is effective in capturing risk-related anomalies, as evidenced by its strong IC and excess return [8][10] --- Factor Backtesting Results IC Performance - **BP**: Weekly IC = 5.32%, Monthly IC = 8.04%, Annual IC = 1.81% [8] - **BP Three-Year Percentile**: Weekly IC = 6.26%, Monthly IC = 10.63%, Annual IC = 3.10% [8] - **Quarterly Gross Profit Margin**: Weekly IC = 5.61%, Monthly IC = 3.29%, Annual IC = 0.64% [8] - **1-Month Average Daily Turnover**: Weekly IC = 12.54%, Monthly IC = 14.06%, Annual IC = 2.03% [8] - **1-Month Turnover Volatility**: Weekly IC = 10.49%, Monthly IC = 13.42%, Annual IC = 2.70% [8] - **Fama-French Three-Factor 1-Month Residual Volatility**: Weekly IC = 8.93%, Monthly IC = 13.16%, Annual IC = 3.32% [8] Excess Return Performance - **BP**: Weekly Excess Return = -0.04%, Monthly Excess Return = 1.27%, Annual Excess Return = 2.22% [10] - **BP Three-Year Percentile**: Weekly Excess Return = -0.25%, Monthly Excess Return = 2.07%, Annual Excess Return = 3.63% [10] - **Quarterly Gross Profit Margin**: Weekly Excess Return = 0.68%, Monthly Excess Return = 1.05%, Annual Excess Return = 4.64% [10] - **1-Month Average Daily Turnover**: Weekly Excess Return = 0.64%, Monthly Excess Return = 2.96%, Annual Excess Return = 7.46% [10] - **1-Month Turnover Volatility**: Weekly Excess Return = 0.55%, Monthly Excess Return = 2.95%, Annual Excess Return = 9.61% [10] - **Fama-French Three-Factor 1-Month Residual Volatility**: Weekly Excess Return = 0.29%, Monthly Excess Return = 2.75%, Annual Excess Return = 7.03% [10]