Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the bond market is experiencing fluctuations, with a focus on the impact of new tax regulations on government bonds and the performance of bond ETFs [1][2][3] - The 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera (511130) has shown significant trading activity, with a net inflow of 5.423 billion yuan over the past 10 days, indicating strong market interest [1][3] - The People's Bank of China conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 544.8 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 49 billion yuan into the market, suggesting a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy [1] Group 2 - The new tax regulations on government bonds may enhance demand for older bonds, potentially widening the yield spread between new and old bonds, with new bonds possibly facing some discount [2] - The upcoming political meetings and the stabilization of domestic and international policies are expected to create a favorable environment for bond trading, with expectations of a potential upward trend in bond prices in early August [2] - The 30-year government bond index reflects the overall performance of long-term government bonds in the Shanghai market, with a duration of approximately 21 years, making it sensitive to interest rate changes [3]

Market Performance - Treasury futures opened significantly higher but weakened in the afternoon, with mixed closing performances; the 30-year main contract rose by 0.08%, while the 10-year main contract increased by 0.02%, and the 5-year main contract fell by 0.01% [1] - Notably, there was a clear divergence in performance among different delivery months for the same maturity; for example, the 10-year treasury futures T2509 rose by 0.02%, while T2512 and T2603 fell by 0.17% and 0.34% respectively [1] - In the interbank market, major interest rate bonds initially saw yields decline but later turned to a noticeable increase; as of 17:00, the yield on the 30-year treasury bond "25 Super Long Special Treasury 02" rose by 1.9 basis points to 1.9220% [1] Funding Situation - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 544.8 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with the same amount being the bid and winning amount [2] - On that day, 495.8 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net injection of 49 billion yuan [2] - The interbank market remains stable with a slight increase in DR001, hovering around 1.31%, while overnight funding rates for non-bank institutions' pledged certificates and credit bonds decreased slightly [2] Policy Developments - The National Development and Reform Commission indicated plans to expedite the approval of new policy financial instruments, with several regions already holding meetings to seize policy dividends [3] - The issuance of government bonds, including ultra-long special treasury bonds and new special bonds, is expected to accelerate, supporting infrastructure investment in the second half of the year [3] - A new tax policy on bond interest income will take effect on August 8, 2025, imposing a 6% VAT on interest income from newly issued government bonds, while existing bonds will remain exempt until maturity [3] Operational Recommendations - The new tax regulations on treasury bonds may enhance demand for older bonds, potentially widening the yield spread between new and old bonds [4] - There is a possibility that new bonds issued after August 8 may become the deliverable bonds for T, TF, and TS contracts, leading to weaker performance in long-term contracts [4] - The overall expectation for early August includes a favorable environment for bond trading, with anticipated stability in interest rates and potential for upward movement in bond prices [4]