2026年01月11日 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号: Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 上周(01.05~01.09),美豆期价"涨跌互现、重心小幅上移",中方持续采购美豆具有偏多影响。 从周 K 线角度, 1 月 9 日当周, 美豆主力 03 月合约周涨幅 1.6%, 美豆粕主力 03 月合约周涨幅 2.67%。 上周(01.05~01.09),国内豆粕期价偏强震荡,豆一期价上涨。豆粕方面,偏多因素:国内市场情 结偏强。市场传言反复:6号传言进口大豆拍卖暂停、7号和8号传言拍卖重启。1月9日下午进口大豆 拍卖公告正式发布:1月13日拍卖进口大豆约114万吨。偏空因素:中加贸易前景乐观(加拿大总理将 于下周访问中国)、莱柏下跌。豆一方面,主要利多因素是国内商品市场情绪偏强。此外,市场传言"国 储拍卖延后"、国内现货价格偏强也提供支撑。从周长线角度,1月9日当周,豆粕主力 m2605 合约周涨 幅 1.35%,豆一主力 a2605 合约周涨幅 3.23%。(上述期货价格及涨跌幅数据引自文华财经） 上周(01.05~01.09),国际大豆市场主要基本面情况:1)中方持续采购美豆,影响中性 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese market is shifting towards increasing imports of Brazilian soybeans due to the loss of price advantage for U.S. soybeans caused by the "reciprocal tariff" policy, leading to a tightening of domestic soybean supply and a rise in futures prices [1][2]. Group 1: Supply Dynamics - Since April, the supply of domestic soybeans has tightened significantly, with the proportion of remaining stocks in Heilongjiang dropping to 3%, a decrease of 7 percentage points compared to the previous year [2][3]. - The auction of state reserves has seen a 100% transaction rate, with some lots trading at a premium, which has boosted market sentiment despite a decline in auction volumes [3]. - The southern soybean production areas have also shown rapid sales progress, with Anhui's remaining stocks at 4%, down 31 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a strong price support mentality among traders [2]. Group 2: Demand Trends - The downstream market is entering a traditional off-season, with food demand slowing as temperatures rise, leading to limited new demand for soybean products [4]. - Despite a significant increase in domestic soybean crushing demand, with a 93% year-on-year rise in consumption from January to April 2025, the influx of imported soybeans is expected to normalize the market supply [4]. - The overall market is anticipated to maintain a range-bound trading pattern due to limited demand improvement, despite strong support from the supply side [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The upcoming end of the new season soybean planting is expected to shift the focus back to grain sales, potentially increasing market activity as farmers may be more willing to sell due to rising temperatures affecting storage [4]. - Key factors to monitor include the government's soybean release policies and weather conditions during the new season's growth period, which could impact future supply and pricing dynamics [4].