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光大证券:为什么美国非农就业大幅下修?
智通财经网· 2025-08-03 01:29
Core Viewpoint - The U.S. non-farm employment data shows a significant decline, with July's job additions at 73,000, down from an expected 110,000, indicating a weakening labor market and increasing likelihood of the Federal Reserve restarting interest rate cuts in the second half of the year [1][2][6]. Employment Data Summary - The U.S. Labor Department reported that July's non-farm employment increased by 73,000, significantly lower than the expected 110,000, and the previous value was revised down from 147,000 to 14,000 [2]. - The unemployment rate for July was reported at 4.2%, matching expectations but up from the previous value of 4.1% [2]. - Average hourly earnings increased by 3.9% year-over-year, slightly above the expected 3.8% [2]. Non-Farm Data Revision Analysis - The downward revision of June's non-farm data by 258,000 jobs was primarily due to adjustments in government, leisure and hospitality, and construction sectors, which accounted for 90,000 of the total revision [3]. - The significant revision reflects the impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy, suggesting that the resilience of the economy may have been overestimated [3][6]. Sector Performance - In July, the financial activities sector added 15,000 jobs, education and health services added 79,000 jobs, and retail added 16,000 jobs, indicating stable demand in these service sectors [4]. - The manufacturing sector has seen negative job additions for three consecutive months, indicating a lack of production willingness among companies [4]. Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate decreased to 62.2% in July from 62.3% in the previous month, with a notable decline in employment willingness among younger demographics [5]. - The number of unemployed individuals increased by 221,000 in July, contributing to the rise in the U3 unemployment rate to 4.2% [5]. - Temporary unemployment increased by 80,000, while permanent unemployment remained unchanged, suggesting a rise in layoffs by companies [5].
氧化铝、电解铝:5月进出口有变化,铝价走势分析
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-07 13:14
Group 1 - The U.S. non-farm employment figures exceeded expectations, leading to a rapid decline in the probability of interest rate cuts in July [1] - Domestic policies such as the trade-in program will continue, and anti-involution policies are emerging [1] - The aluminum industry saw a month-on-month increase of 2.1 million tons in production capacity in May, with a slight rise in operating rates [1] Group 2 - In May, China's net export of alumina was 142,500 tons, a significant decrease, marking 14 consecutive months of net exports, with export profits slightly narrowing [1] - The production cost of alumina was 2,821.9 yuan per ton, with a profit of 300.3 yuan per ton, showing a slight decrease in costs and a minor reduction in profits [1] - The latest price of caustic soda was 3,540 yuan per ton, with a week-on-week increase of 10 yuan per ton, providing cost support for alumina [1] Group 3 - The electrolytic aluminum industry maintained stable supply with a slight increase in production capacity [1] - In May, net imports of aluminum were 191,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 40,000 tons but a month-on-month decrease of 45,800 tons, with current import losses at 1,310 yuan per ton [1] - The production cost of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 108 yuan per ton week-on-week, currently around 16,611 yuan, with profits at 4,259 yuan per ton, a week-on-week decrease of 82 yuan [1] Group 4 - Social inventory of aluminum reached 475,000 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 14,000 tons, while spot prices remained high with rapid declines in premiums [1] - The main contract for August is expected to fluctuate between 19,800 and 20,800 yuan per ton, with attention on high-season hedging opportunities [1]
美国6月非农就业人数增加14.7万 失业率稳定在4.1%
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-07-03 13:33
Core Points - The U.S. labor market remains stable with a non-farm employment increase of 147,000 in June, maintaining an unemployment rate of 4.1% [1][4] - Job growth is concentrated in state government and healthcare sectors, with state government adding 47,000 jobs and healthcare contributing 39,000 jobs [2] - Wage growth is moderate, with average hourly earnings rising by 0.2% to $36.30, while average weekly hours worked slightly decreased [3] Employment Trends - The state government sector saw significant job additions, particularly in education, which accounted for 40,000 of the new jobs [2] - The federal government continues to reduce its workforce, with a loss of 7,000 jobs in June and a total of 69,000 jobs cut since January [2] - Long-term unemployment is a growing concern, with 1.6 million individuals unemployed for 27 weeks or more, representing 23.3% of the total unemployed [4] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate remains unchanged at 62.3%, with approximately 6 million individuals willing to work but not actively participating in the labor market [6] - The number of marginally attached workers has increased to 1.8 million, indicating a rise in individuals who are discouraged about job prospects [6] - Revisions to previous employment data show an upward adjustment, with April and May's non-farm employment figures increased by a total of 16,000 jobs [7]