相关报告 1.《 就业转向供过于求——8 月美国非农数 2025-09-06 据解读》 2.《政府就业被高估——7 月美国非农数据 解读》 2025-08-02 3.《政府支撑就业上升——6 月美国非农数 据解读》 4.《就业降温趋势不变 -- 5 月美国非农数 据解读》 5.《就业不断下修――4 月美国非农数据解 读》 2025-05-03 and Path Till and Till and State of the Same of the Same ■ 证券研究报告 【生元 SAC 证书编号: S0160523030002 chenxina@ctsec.com 分析师 马乐怡 SAC 证书编号: S0160525090010 malv@ctsec.com 宏观月报 / 2025.11.21 核心观点 新增非农就业回升，薪资增速持平。9 月新增非农就业升至 11.9 万人, * 但前值再度小幅下修，与上次报告相比，7 月和 8 月两个月合计共下调 3.3 万 人。本月教育保健和休闲酒店仍是新增就业的主要支撑，多数行业新增就业 回升,其中政府和建筑业新增就业回升幅度最大。不过,随着接受递延辞职的 联邦员工正 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. non-farm employment data shows a significant decline, with July's job additions at 73,000, down from an expected 110,000, indicating a weakening labor market and increasing likelihood of the Federal Reserve restarting interest rate cuts in the second half of the year [1][2][6]. Employment Data Summary - The U.S. Labor Department reported that July's non-farm employment increased by 73,000, significantly lower than the expected 110,000, and the previous value was revised down from 147,000 to 14,000 [2]. - The unemployment rate for July was reported at 4.2%, matching expectations but up from the previous value of 4.1% [2]. - Average hourly earnings increased by 3.9% year-over-year, slightly above the expected 3.8% [2]. Non-Farm Data Revision Analysis - The downward revision of June's non-farm data by 258,000 jobs was primarily due to adjustments in government, leisure and hospitality, and construction sectors, which accounted for 90,000 of the total revision [3]. - The significant revision reflects the impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy, suggesting that the resilience of the economy may have been overestimated [3][6]. Sector Performance - In July, the financial activities sector added 15,000 jobs, education and health services added 79,000 jobs, and retail added 16,000 jobs, indicating stable demand in these service sectors [4]. - The manufacturing sector has seen negative job additions for three consecutive months, indicating a lack of production willingness among companies [4]. Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate decreased to 62.2% in July from 62.3% in the previous month, with a notable decline in employment willingness among younger demographics [5]. - The number of unemployed individuals increased by 221,000 in July, contributing to the rise in the U3 unemployment rate to 4.2% [5]. - Temporary unemployment increased by 80,000, while permanent unemployment remained unchanged, suggesting a rise in layoffs by companies [5].

Group 1 - The U.S. non-farm employment figures exceeded expectations, leading to a rapid decline in the probability of interest rate cuts in July [1] - Domestic policies such as the trade-in program will continue, and anti-involution policies are emerging [1] - The aluminum industry saw a month-on-month increase of 2.1 million tons in production capacity in May, with a slight rise in operating rates [1] Group 2 - In May, China's net export of alumina was 142,500 tons, a significant decrease, marking 14 consecutive months of net exports, with export profits slightly narrowing [1] - The production cost of alumina was 2,821.9 yuan per ton, with a profit of 300.3 yuan per ton, showing a slight decrease in costs and a minor reduction in profits [1] - The latest price of caustic soda was 3,540 yuan per ton, with a week-on-week increase of 10 yuan per ton, providing cost support for alumina [1] Group 3 - The electrolytic aluminum industry maintained stable supply with a slight increase in production capacity [1] - In May, net imports of aluminum were 191,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 40,000 tons but a month-on-month decrease of 45,800 tons, with current import losses at 1,310 yuan per ton [1] - The production cost of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 108 yuan per ton week-on-week, currently around 16,611 yuan, with profits at 4,259 yuan per ton, a week-on-week decrease of 82 yuan [1] Group 4 - Social inventory of aluminum reached 475,000 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 14,000 tons, while spot prices remained high with rapid declines in premiums [1] - The main contract for August is expected to fluctuate between 19,800 and 20,800 yuan per ton, with attention on high-season hedging opportunities [1]

Core Points - The U.S. labor market remains stable with a non-farm employment increase of 147,000 in June, maintaining an unemployment rate of 4.1% [1][4] - Job growth is concentrated in state government and healthcare sectors, with state government adding 47,000 jobs and healthcare contributing 39,000 jobs [2] - Wage growth is moderate, with average hourly earnings rising by 0.2% to $36.30, while average weekly hours worked slightly decreased [3] Employment Trends - The state government sector saw significant job additions, particularly in education, which accounted for 40,000 of the new jobs [2] - The federal government continues to reduce its workforce, with a loss of 7,000 jobs in June and a total of 69,000 jobs cut since January [2] - Long-term unemployment is a growing concern, with 1.6 million individuals unemployed for 27 weeks or more, representing 23.3% of the total unemployed [4] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate remains unchanged at 62.3%, with approximately 6 million individuals willing to work but not actively participating in the labor market [6] - The number of marginally attached workers has increased to 1.8 million, indicating a rise in individuals who are discouraged about job prospects [6] - Revisions to previous employment data show an upward adjustment, with April and May's non-farm employment figures increased by a total of 16,000 jobs [7]